tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-335136432024-03-13T08:41:30.281-07:00Pro Football PicksA Blog dedicated to the National Football League. I will give my analysis and insight for the 2006-2007 Season.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger363125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-42324370894835495132010-10-03T07:42:00.000-07:002010-10-03T07:43:05.962-07:00Week 4 Plays<span style="font-weight:bold;">Week 4 Plays</span><br />Cleveland Browns +3, 2.5 units<br />Baltimore Ravens +3 ( bought hook), 2.5 units<br />Seattle -2, 2.5 units<br />Colts -7, 2.5 units<br />Colts -1, San Diego -3 TEASER 2.5 units<br />Colts -1, Baltimore +8.5, Seattle +4, Teaser .5 units to win nearly 1.5 units<br /><br />Good luck fellasUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-68216408156709865062010-09-26T09:36:00.000-07:002010-09-26T09:37:25.928-07:00Week 3<span style="font-weight:bold;">Steelers -2.5</span> ( 2.5 units)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Cowboys +3</span> ( 2.5 units)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Giants -3</span> ( 2.5 units)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Saints -3</span> ( 2.5 units)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Patriots -3 </span>( 1st quarter line) 2.5 units<br /><br />Looking for more plays later.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-50214364260448706322010-09-09T19:02:00.001-07:002010-09-09T19:02:28.204-07:002nd half addSaints/Vikings 2nd half OVER 23.5 ( 1 unit)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-2756374721211066752010-09-09T17:00:00.000-07:002010-09-09T17:02:45.728-07:00<span style="font-weight:bold;">Week 1</span><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Saints -4.5</span> ( 1 unit)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Patriots -4.5</span> ( 1 unit)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Colts -2</span> ( 2.5 units)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Packers -3</span> ( 2.5 units)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Baltimore + 2</span> ( 1 unit)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Baltimore +9/Green BAY @ Philly O40.5<span style="font-weight:bold;"></span></span> ( 1 unit) TEASE<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">SEASON</span><br />COLTS to win SB, 5 Units, 8/1 Odds<br />NY Giants to win SB, 1 Unit, 25/1 OddsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-60049263960636432312010-02-07T16:58:00.000-08:002010-02-07T17:00:30.550-08:00SB 2nd half addSB 2nd half add<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">1 unit</span> on the OVER 27.5<br /><br />It's possible either one of these teams get this by themselves. All it means is OVER 41 points total for the game, which before the game seemed very likely. Don't forget the Saints had 0 points in one possesion, they kicked 2 FGs and the Colts kicked 1. That's a lot of potential points left off the score board. I'll take the two high powered offenses in this one.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-1927982821678449882010-02-07T14:22:00.000-08:002010-02-07T14:26:16.000-08:00SB PlaysEarly in the week I put down<br />1 unit on the Colts -4.5<br />1 unit on the Colts ML -220<br /><br />The line jumped from -4.5, up to -6, but then the Freeney injury news came out and the line moved back down to -5, and -210.<br /><br />My neighbor is admittedly a Colts fan, but he told me he put down 4 dimes on the game. He said he'd bet more but he doesn't want to look like Colts homer... I added to my wager...<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">10 more units on the Colts ML -210</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Today's plays.</span><br />Colts -4.5 ( 1 unit)<br />Colts ML (11 units)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-91791206069722670422010-01-17T13:33:00.000-08:002010-01-17T13:34:11.206-08:00Early bet for NFC Championship game<span style="font-weight:bold;">OVER 53 </span>( 5 units)<br /><br />Vikings @ Saints. One team will score at LEAST 30 points, probably closer to 40, and the other guy might not be that far behind. I do think this line will move up to 54, 55, 56 by kickoff, and you could sell it and hope for a middle if you'd like.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-81156352329490050722010-01-17T13:00:00.001-08:002010-01-17T13:00:36.035-08:00WCThe Vikings shit stomped Dallas, wish I put more on them.<br /><br />Put me down on the <span style="font-weight:bold;">SD ML to win 1 more unit.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-75074223537202827822010-01-17T05:48:00.000-08:002010-01-17T05:51:35.898-08:00Playoff week 2 day 2The Colts came through yesterday with the win and the ATS win, I'm thinking about employing the same strategy with the Chargers in the late game ( favorites have been doing well as I thought at least 3 of them would win/cover).<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Vikings -2.5</span> ( 1 unit)<br /><br />Dallas is good at running the ball, the Vikings have a good d-line. <br />Minny's D is overall better at home.<br />The Vikings are undefeated at home<br />The Vikings are rested<br />Dallas lost 3 games on the road<br />Dallas is suddenly getting a LOT of hype right now by the media<br /><br />Favre going back to the deep South for the NFCC game is a great storyline.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-19512500736213496142010-01-16T16:35:00.000-08:002010-01-16T16:36:51.137-08:00Playoffs week 2 contBroke even in game 1...<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Colts -6.5</span> ( 1 unit)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Colts ML</span> 2.5 units to win 1 unit.<br /><br />The early part of this game is going to be VERY important, but I pick the Clits to win.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-81419897157966337862010-01-16T15:20:00.001-08:002010-01-16T15:20:41.075-08:002nd half add<span style="font-weight:bold;">Saints -4.5 </span>2nd half ( 1 unit)<br /><br />The game is over.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-20019179697321055352010-01-16T12:58:00.001-08:002010-01-16T13:01:39.082-08:00Playoffs week 2Got toasted last week.<br /><br />Start me off with Arizona +7 ( 1 unit)<br /><br />I'd love to have a low scoring 1st half and pound the 2nd half over... To me it isn't even just about the Saints losing their last 3 games, the game before that was a FG win over a Chris Redman Falcons team, the game before that was a 3 point win against the Deadskins. That's 5 weeks of weak play in a row.<br /><br />I do think the Saints probably win but I'd like to buy back at halftime with a decent start from the Cards...<br /><br />The thing I like is that if the Cards fall behind and it turns into a 1 dimensional game, Warner will be about the least effected QB in the league because he's USED to that and he played a perfect game last week. Warner has made his lunch playing well in the playoffs...<br /><br />I'll take the live dog +7 for now...Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-42847556391945555412010-01-10T12:40:00.000-08:002010-01-10T12:41:35.858-08:00AddAdd Packers -2.5 (2.5 units)<br />Add Packers ML (2.5 units)<br /><br />Today has been a terrible day so far with the Patriots. They were my lock of the week and they lost.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-12744437903438926132010-01-10T11:38:00.001-08:002010-01-10T11:39:01.852-08:002nd half add<span style="font-weight:bold;">Patriots 2nd half -7 </span>( 2.5 units)<br /><br />It's not looking good so far, I'm shocked.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-77281728444173162632010-01-10T08:56:00.001-08:002010-01-10T08:57:37.510-08:00ADDADD<br /><br />5 Units <span style="font-weight:bold;">Patriots ML</span> to win 2.5 units<br /><br />Jets +3 ( win 1 unit)<br />Eagles +3.5 ( Lose 1 unit)<br />Prop bet, Crayton more WR Yards than Maclin ( Lose 1 unit)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Patriots ML</span> 5 units<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Patriots -3</span> 1 unit<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">GB - 1</span> 1 unit<br /><br />GLUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-14211101901987598872010-01-09T09:40:00.000-08:002010-01-09T10:25:28.962-08:00wild card weekend<span style="font-weight:bold;">Jets +3</span> ( bought hook)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Eagles +3.5</span><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Patriots -3</span> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Packers -1</span> ( this line was +2.5 earlier in the week, should have bought then)<br />All for 1 unit<br /><br />Prop bet: WR with most yards ( 1 unit)<br />Jermey Maclin <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Patrick Crayton +12.5</span><br /><br />Crayton had about 50 more yards in last weeks game, and plus Maclin is nursing an injury... <br /><br /><br />I placed 1 unit on all my bets NOW, but I will probably add based on what happens. I fully plan on putting MORE on the Patriots, the best bet of the week.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-31403872291736127942010-01-03T13:06:00.001-08:002010-01-03T13:07:12.722-08:00Week 17 cont.2-0 so far, glad I didn't mess around with the Jagoffs either.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">ADD: 1.25 units on the Eagles +3</span><br /><br />If Philly wins, it will be huge because I have futures for them to win it all too and they'd get a bye and then to host a playoff game. I can't wait for this Eagles/Dallas game!Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-39073384130943866492010-01-03T06:47:00.000-08:002010-01-03T06:59:04.995-08:00Week 17I hate week 17, who'se playing, who'se sitting guys, which team mails it in etc.<br /><br />My 3 leans for the 1 PM games were 3 road favorites<br />Bears, Falcons, Jags<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Jags: NO PLAY</span><br />I was watching NFL playbook and decided to cut the Jags. Their run defense was destroyed by New England ( not really a running team), Cleveland has a new found run game, they suck on the road, Garrard isn't good on the road, they are a Florida team traveling north in the cold, and the Browns have won 3 games in a row. If you stuck a gun to my head I still say the Jags win, but that's too many road favorites.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Falcons -1: 1.25 units</span><br />Everybody is on the Falcons. The Bucs pulled off a lucky win over the Saints, their running backs are hurt, and the Falcons have Matt Ryan back. The Falcons ONLY won by 3 at home vs the Bucs with a last second touchdown pass by Chris Redman ( but Matt Ryan wasn't playing). The Bucs had 6 sacks in that game and the odds makers are counting on the Bucs to play strong at home.<br /><br />I disagree. Even thought the match up was "close" last game, the Bucs do have an offensive line, I trust Matt Ryan a whole lot more than Chris Redman or Josh Freeman. He'll probably get sacked less, Michael Turner MIGHT play, and the Bucs are not a good football team. The Falcons are fighting to go 8-8 ( coaches care about stuff like that), and even though the odds makers don't care that the public is pouring in on Atlanta, I think the Public wins.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Bears -3, 1.25 units</span><br />The Bears are in a historically crappy spot. Last week they were a home dog that won outright that is favored this week. They are a road favorite and NOT a good football team, but they are playing one of the 3 worst teams in the NFL. Jay Cutler seemed to at least a little bit be on the same page with his WR's, Tommy Harris played, and the Lions are terrible. I hope Drew Stanton starts at QB because he will be just as mistake prone as Cutler ( probably more), but won't have the upside to go with it. <br /><br />I know the history is against teams in the situation the Bears are in and the books expect a let down but the Lions are bad, and they haven't even been small under dogs this year. Look at all their games, they are 10 point dogs, 14 point dogs in nearly every game. How will they respond to being (only) 3 point dogs? I think the Lions are WORSE than the books do, and that yeah, the Bears MIGHT let down this week, but they are the better team and should win. With Cutler etc., they should try and build chemistry with their WR's and play hard.<br /><br />I'm hoping to go 2-0 with these games... maybe some halftime adds, and I do want to bet on the Eagles at 4:15. Depending on what happens early, I'll decide how much to take Philly +3 with. ( considering SD and maybe GB/Arizona game as well).<br /><br />GL. I hate week 17, the playoffs should be fun though.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-30530201473909852052009-12-25T16:31:00.001-08:002009-12-25T16:32:07.077-08:00last minute teaser add1/2 a unit on these teams... to win nearly 2.5 units ( pays 4.5/1)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">SD +10, NE -1, Giants Pick, Eagles Pick, Dallas Pick</span><br /><br />GL Merry Christmas.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-50851907589235954972009-12-25T06:17:00.000-08:002009-12-25T06:44:58.879-08:00Week 15<span style="font-weight:bold;">5 Units</span><br />7 point Teaser: SD Chargers +10, NE Patriots -1 <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">1 Unit</span><br />ATS: SD Chargers + 3 <br />ATS: NY Giants -7<br />ATS: Baltimore Ravens +2.5<br />6 point Teaser: Indy Colts +.5, Philly Eagles -1<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">NFL Futures</span><br />ADD: NE Patriots 1.25 units to win 15 units @ 11/1 odds<br />ADD: Philly 1.25 units to win 11.55 units @ 8.25/1 odds<br />I still have GB Packers futures from the start of the year as well.<br /><br />The game that I am <span style="font-style:italic;">MOST</span> confident in, is the Patriots to beat the Jaguars. I teased them with the Chargers +10 ( which is very generous) and I like how the games are spaced out into different time slots. If the Chargers lose, I will attempt to win my money back in the Ravens/Patriots teaser of equal value.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Chargers:</span><br />9 Game win streak. Phillip Rivers has never thrown 3 picks in a game before in his life. They are becoming a trendy super bowl pick, they beat teams on the road, they beat good teams, they win games in December.... The Titans are also a trendy team since Vince Young has been the starter, but they lost 2 starting LB's. The thing that scares me is the Titans rush offense vs the Chargers rush defense and banged up front 7, but the Chargers can come from behind if needed. Getting an 11-3 team vs a 7-7 team with points is a good prop. I like a live dog on a nationally televised game.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Patriots</span><br />Ideal matchup. A 7-0 "home team" vs a 2-4 team that can't win on the road. Look at Jacksonvilles road losses...41-0 to Seattle... a crappy passing team, 13-30 to the Titans a running team... They beat the Jets by 2 points ...A 20-3 against San Fran... and they just lost two games in a row vs Indy and Miami. Their offense is simple and predictable. They run the ball and make easy throws. Bellicheck's defense has been decent against the run, and he eats up simple QB's for breakfast.<br /><br />Now let's look at the Patriots.<br />7-0 at home, with close road losses @ Denver ( 3 point OT Loss), Lost by 1 @ Indy in a game they had won, 1 point loss @ Miami, and got blown out by the Saints in NO. The rest of their last 10 games they won and all of those wins were by double digits.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Patriots have a very good passing offense, and their run offense is better than it was the past couple of years. The Jaguars weakness on defense is their pass defense.</span><br /><br />In all reality the Patriots should win this game by double digits like all of their last wins. Not only do the Patriots win this game, but they should be hosting a playoff game against a weaker team, which puts them into round 2... Against an Indy team they could beat, or against a San Diego team that could turn into a shoot out. I think the Patriots 11/1 futures are worth a buy right now.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Giants:</span><br />The Panthers are a "rushing" offense, and they lost the important cogs of that. They have probably the best run blocking tackles in the league in Gross & Otah and they are both hurt. Deangelo Williams is questionable and the 3rd string back will not play. That leaves the power back Jonathan Stewart and I believe the Giants could slow him down enough to make life hard for Matt Moore. Matt Moore's QB rating is lower in the few road starts he's had, and he is a career 50% passer on the road. Having new Tackles against a pressure packed Giants defense is a formula for turnovers. If the Giants get a lead, they should be able to protect it.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Ravens:</span><br />This should be a lower scoring game, but I give the edge to the better team the Ravens, that are getting points. Everybody saw that exciting game game last week vs the packers, but the Steelers have not been playing good football losing to bad teams like Oakland and KC. The Steelers will be missing key guys on defense ( Polomalou and possibly Keisel)... don't get me wrong, the Ravens have injuries too but they have the better defense, better special teams, and their offense has improved this season.<br /><br />The Patriots & Eagles will both get to host a home playoff game, and then who knows what happens after that. They both are able to beat any team if they play their game, getting hot and ripping off a couple wins isn't out of the question. The Saints are overrated, the Vikings just lost to a weak Carolina team, the Patriots outplayed the Colts a few weeks ago in their own house, and a Patriots/Chargers came could be a shoot out. At the odds you are buying them for, it's worth the risk. The Patriots were the favored team coming into the year, and the Eagles are probably the best team in the NFC right now, with the 3rd best odds.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-14106504360088521182009-12-21T19:09:00.000-08:002009-12-21T19:14:14.355-08:00Week 16 add<span style="font-weight:bold;">Week 14</span> was great finishing plus 13.5 units.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Week 15</span> started out losing 3.5 units ( thanks saints), and had some other close losses, but unless the Giants collapse I'll finish plus .5 units). It's always good to finish positive. The Giants/Eagles and to a degree the Patriots were my plays, but I got suckered into the Saints ( I initially leaned Dallas), but Demarcus Ware played despite snapping his neck. If Demarcus Ware didn't play ( I expected him NOT to play), no way Dallas wins that game as he wreaked havoic on the Saints offense. I also had a stupid loss with the Vikings losing to a minor league baseball player at QB. I should have stuck to my good bets, and ignored the marginal bets.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Week 16 early play</span><br /><br />6 point Teaser: <span style="font-weight:bold;">Indianapolis Colts +.5, Eagles -1</span> ( 1 unit)<br /><br />It wouldn't shock me to see the Colts, Eagles and even Patriots lines move the other way.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-32719812925693076082009-12-20T12:59:00.000-08:002009-12-20T13:06:15.032-08:00ADDADD<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Eagles -7</span> ( 1 unit)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Cincinatti +14<br />Vikings -2</span><br />Teaser: 1 unitUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-66398541288996722422009-12-20T11:34:00.000-08:002009-12-20T11:35:08.694-08:002nd half add<span style="font-weight:bold;">NE Patriots -2.5</span> ( 1 unit)<br /><br />They get the ball first.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-59956590695300778522009-12-19T20:36:00.000-08:002009-12-20T06:49:27.936-08:00ADD<span style="font-weight:bold;">Patriots-.5/Eagles -1</span> ( 4 unit teaser)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Kansas Shitty Chiefs -2</span> ( 1 unit)<br /><br />I'm already down 4 units for the week, but won 13.5 last week. I feel like Demarcus Ware was the difference, and I was counting on him NOT playing after nearly snapping his neck the previous week.<br /><br />UPDATED. Teaser moved from 2.5 units to 4 unitsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33513643.post-50629648751068341592009-12-19T19:01:00.000-08:002009-12-19T19:02:44.593-08:00ADDADD<br /><br />Saints/Dallas <span style="font-weight:bold;">OVER 25.5</span> 2nd half ( 1 unit)<br /><br />I thought there was no way that questionable Demarcus Ware would be playing, it totally changed my pick on the game and he caused a fumble in the 2nd quarter. If the Saints are going to come back, they are going to have to score to do so, if not, I lose my teaser.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com