Sunday, February 01, 2009

SB Card

SB Card
Pittsburgh ML ( 5 units to win almost 2.5) -210
Pittsburgh -7 ( 2 units)
Pittsburgh -10.5 ( 1 unit)
Pittsburgh -14.5 ( 1 unit)
Player Prop: Which QB will throw more interceptions, Kurt Warner -160 ( 3 units)

My final prediction is that Pitt wins 34-14 and I don't think this will be a close one. Pittsburgh had the #1 schedule going into this year, and their schedule finished 7th best. All 6 of the other teams with a harder schedule were below .500, but Pitt was 12-4.

Arizona was in a crap Division, 9-7, they had been blown out a few times this year, and they hosted playoff games by default. I do like Ken Wisenhunt and I predicted good things out of Arizona but they played way over their heads. The only argument that has them winning is " hope" and " heart", and being " hot". If you look at any argument on paper Pittsburgh wins.

Historically Super Bowls are blowouts and Arizona is one of the weakest teams to ever make it. That doesn't mean it is a lock or anything, but Pittsburgh wins this game 9 times out of 10. They don't have to do anything crazy, just play their game.

When there have been upsets in Super Bowls, usually the " offensive team" gets upset by the "defensive team". 2007 NE Patriots, 2002 Raiders, 91 Bills, 97 Packers all come to mind.

I just don't want to see the Mike Tomlin love fest. Dick Lebeau has had a #1 defense 3 out of the last 5 years. He is the best defensive coordinator in the league and " makes" his linebackers. Isn't it funny how James Harrison couldn't even keep and NFL job and now he's an MVP? I mean, what happened to Gregg Lloyd when he left Pittsburgh?

Pittsburgh is the #1 defensive team in almost every category, and if Arizona has to play catch up, they could fall further and further behind. I think this SB will more look like the 2000 one where Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens defense dominated the NY Giants.

I actually think it might be somewhat close at halftime, but in the 2nd half that blitzing defense will force Warner into turnovers.... Turnovers are death in winning NFL games. Look at the turnover margin in SB's and who wins.

I have a barbell approach with Pitt to win, Pitt -7, Pitt -10.5, and Pitt -14.5. I'd even throw some coin on Pitt -17.5 or -21.5 but I like to stay more conservative.

Enjoy the game and don't go too nuts on the prop bets.

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