Sunday, January 18, 2009

Super Bowl pick

Pittsburgh -7 ( 2 units).

I see Arizona as one of the worst Super Bowl teams ever and having problems with the Steelers D. A 9-7 team in a crap division.... We haven't had a blowout in a while, and Arizona has been blown out of more than their fare share of games this year... they were good at home... weak on the road... and the Super Bowl isn't in Arizona this year.



Pittsburgh/Baltimore UNDER 17, 2nd half ( 1 unit)


Unfortunatly I can't sit next to my computer and post everything, but I took Eagles -4 second half ( 2 units).

Eagles -3 ( lost 3 units)
Eagles to win SB ( lost 1 unit)
Eagles -4 ( second half) WON 2 units

3 units Steelers ML.

Monday, January 12, 2009

NFC Championship

Philly -3 ( 3 units)
Philly to win it all 1 unit to win 2

Yesterday I jumped on the early line Philly -3.5 and bout the hook to -3 for ( 3 units).
I wish I jumped on Pittsburgh -4 because today I see them sitting at -6.

Today I put 1 unit on Philly to win it all at bodog 2-1 odds. At my other book they were +175 or so, but I jumped on Bodog for once having a good line. I see Philly winning the next game, and who knows what happens in the super bowl. I hope the Pitt or Baltimore defense eats them alive, but it just might be the Eagles year.

The thing that pisses me off is earlier in the year they were still very much in the playoff hunt but with max pessimism. I saw their SB odds at 40-1 yes 40-1. I always felt like if Philly or Dallas could make it into the playoffs, they could do some damage in a weak year for the NFL. Looks like Philly just might pull the big upset this year like last year. Who knows. I at least would want to profit from it.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

NFC Championship

Jumped on Philly -3.5, bought the hook to Philly -3 over Arizona ( 3 units)

Lost 2 units yesterday, less than 1 today. The playoffs can be tricky, not many people would have predicted 3 underdogs winning on the road against the top seeds. It's the NFL and any given sunday...


Pittsburgh 6 units to win over 3 units.

If I were watching the Giants game on the beach in the west coast, I'd throw my laptop into the Pacific Ocean. Time to go work out before I do something stupid. If I ever see Joe Buck in my lifetime I am punching him square in his forehead.

Added 1 more unit

Added 1 more unit on the Giants.

NY Giants ML 2 units to win 1.
New York Giants 2nd half -3 ( 2 units)

New York Giants 2nd half -3 ( 1 unit)
Titans, Carolina lost as home teams, Giants & Pittsburgh will win. Whoever wins this Giants game has a ticket to the super bowl because no way Arizona beats either one of these teams.

I can't stand Joe Buck doing a giants game. Making smug comments against Eli. Eli had a few balls that were dropped and close to being nice solid gains. He has had some wobbly passes into the wind? WTF has Mcnabb done besides vs the prevent defense at the end of the 1st half? He threw a pick, he took a safety, he completed 50% of his passes and has less yards. The Eagles have done nothing on offense.

The Giants had a missed field goal too, but the Eagles offense has done nothing. I just can't stand watching a game called by Joe Buck. He knows little to nothing about football, but just loves bashing certain players. You would have thought after Eli won a Super Bowl MVP that he would lighten up some, but he's still trying to slip in condescending comments.

Playoffs week 2

Ravens/Titans First half Under 17.5 WIN 1 unit
Titans 2nd half -3 LOSE 1 unit
Cards/Panthers 1st half UNDER 24.5 LOSE 1 unit
Panthers 2nd half -9 LOSE 1 unit.
New York Giants ML 2 units to win 1 unit.

Yesterday was a 2 unit loser. I still feel the Titans 2nd half was the play but injuries, A lucky Flacco deep ball into double coverage, a blantant non delay of game call, and red zone turnovers killed the Titans. That Cardinals game suprised everybody and Jake Delhomme choaked big time. Even in the second half they didn't mount any kind of a come back and I thought they'd fight back some.

I do think the Giants game should be close, I don't want to bet Philly +4 because I think the Giants do win. Maybe I will add something at halftime.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

2nd half

Carolina -9 second half ( 1 unit)

They are at home and can't dissapoint the fans that much. Jake played like a loser and they go from being 11 point favorites to losing by 20 at halftime? Betting them to lose by 11 or less looks like a good deal.


1st half Under 17.5 ( win 1 unit)
Titans 2nd half ( lose 1 unit)
1st half UNDER 24.5 Panthers/Cards

I still feel like the Titans were the right 2nd half play.
Chris Johnson getting hurt ( if he plays they win), Kearse got hurt and missed some time, Haynesworth got hurt. The penalties, the NON call when Flacco ran the play about 2 seconds after the clock was on 0. The freaking prayer throw Flacco made into double coverage, the Crumpler fumble, all the redzone turnovers for the Titans are very disappointing for their fans.

I am also getting sick of all the praise for Joe Flacco. The guy completed a hand full of passes and they talk about HIM winning 2 road games as a rookie blah blah blah. His defense didn't have anything to do with it? He's one of the worst starting qb's in the league.

2nd half

1st half UNDER 17.5 ( 1 unit win)
Titans -3 2nd half ( 1 unit)

The funny thing is I was looking to play the 1st Q over and 1st half under. I have been a Titans backer all year and the Titans are freaking dominating this game but made a few stupid mistakes ( the fumble and the Collins interception). Collins completed 12 passes, Flacco only 3. Sure Flacco made a great play on the TD, but his physical skills aren't the problem. Can the rookie be consistant? Can he move the ball down the field? Completing 3 balls is piss poor. Watching the game betting the under gave me the perspective I need. When the titans had the ball I felt threatened, when Baltimore had the ball on offense I wasn't worried they would score. Titans -3, they win the game and move on in the playoffs. They also get the ball 1st in the 2nd half.

I think Jeff Fisher has also outcoached Baltimore. One key I saw was that perfect Baltimore punt at the 1 yardline, but in these sloppy weather conditions I like how the Titans started running some of those swing passes and 1st down passes instead of just your borning 2 yard runs. Jeff Fisher understands these conditions and he had that awsome Chris Johnson swing pass where the Baltimore LB missed the open field tackle. The swing pass should go for a short gain, but with the unsure footing defenders can slip and it could result in a big play ( it did). Plays like that have a chance for a much bigger gain in these conditions and Fisher knows it. It's so simple but true. Fisher is one of the best coaches in the game and I'll side with him and his wisdom.

Playoff Week 2

Titans/Ravens 1st half UNDER 17.5 ( 1 unit)

I will add more later. Playoff week 1 was a dissapointment. If you are only making 2 plays, you are most likely going 1-1, you try and go 2-0 and you don't want to go 0-2. I think the first game was such a dissapointment losing to SD in OT, and the Eagles rolled as they should have. An easy win and a tough loss all ends in a push.

Thursday, January 08, 2009


College FB ( rare play)

National Championship
2nd half OVER 33 points ( 1 unit)

The game total is 70 points, but we are only at 14. If 33 points were scored that would put us at 47 and that would still be over 3 TD's away from the game total for these teams. We have two high powered offenses that were had mistakes in the red zone ( and should score more). Don't forget we also always have the possibility of overtime. GL

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Wildcard card

Season long picks from preseason
Browns Under 8 wins +100, 2 units to win 2 units WIN
Ravens Under 6 wins +100, 2 units to win 2 units LOSS
Colts OVER 11 wins +140, 2 units to win 2.8 units WIN
Colts to win Super Bowl +900, 2.5 units to win 22.5 PLACED
Week 16 addition I had to jump on
Peyton Manning to win MVP +350, 2.5 units to win 8.75 WIN
= + 11.75 units I won after those wages were graded.

Week 17
Buffalo +6 ( 2 units) LOSS
Miami +3 ( 2 units) WIN
Houston -2.5 ( 2 units) WIN
NY Giants 1st half +3.5 ( 2 unit) WIN
Steelers 1st half -7 ( 1 unit) WIN
4-1 ATS = + 5 units on the week!

Wild card
Colts -1 ( 5 units)
Eagles -3 ( 5 units)( line was 3.5 before, I can't believe it went back down to 3)

Some stats/write ups can be found in my last posting. My leans are Arizona, Indy, Miami ATS and Philly. However I am NOT playing all of those games but people often ask me my opinions.

Some of the top reasons FOR ARIZONA
- Kurt Warner is a vet QB, Matt Ryan is a rookie on the road
- Arizona was 6-2 at home
- Atlanta was an average 4-4 on the road
- Arizona outscored opponents 30-22 on average at home
- Atlanta is outscored by opponents 19-20 on average on the road
- Arizona could score, will the rookie be able to match scores on the road?
- Atlanta has Grady Jackson, John Abraham, Curtis Loftin, Lawyer Milloy Questionable
- Arizona is getting 2 points as a home dog
- More people ( the public) have bet on Atlanta

The reason why I am NOT playing Arizona
Arizona's last 10 games 5-5, but they were 0-5 vs good teams, but 5-0 vs crap
@ NE L 7-47 ( Got crushed by a border line playoff team)
MIN L 14-35 ( lost by 3 TD's to a playoff team)
@ Phi L 20-48 ( embarrassed by playoff team on NAT TV)
NYG L 29-37 ( lost to a playoff team)
@ CAR L 23-27 ( lost to a playoff team

Seattle W 34-21 ( Seattle is a crappy non playoff team)
STL W 34-10 ( beat a crappy non playoff team)
@ SEA W 26-20 ( beat a crappy non playoff team)
SF W 29-24 ( beat a crappy non playoff team)
@ STL W 34-13 ( beat a crappy non playoff team)

New England didn't make the playoffs ( although they are clearly better than Arizona), but every time the Cardinals played a decent team, they lost, every time they played the trash of the NFC West they won ( and not even always by much). I have NOT followed Atlanta much this year, they are one of the teams that I honestly watched the least and I am NOT playing this game. The Falcons are the better team, the Cards are in the better situation, rookie QB, team that can't beat anybody good etc. etc. etc. You could bet this game but the player doesn't get much edge either way. I initially leaned the over, but Atlanta is goes under on the road. Ideally I'd like to see Atlanta with a first half lead, a low 2nd half total, and watch Arizona try and throw to come back. I DO feel comfortable betting the over at a cheaper number, but this game is a no play. I worked hard for my season winnings and I am not betting on these teams.

Reasons for my Large Indy wager
- The Colts have the best player in the NFL, I put a premium on that in a 1 game setting.
- Once Tom Brady was injured, you had to lean Peyton Manning to win in a QB dominated NFL.
- For much of 2006 the Colts were undefeated, people were talking about them going undefeated, they lost some games but won it all. In 2007, they lost to Indy, but still had a strong campaign. In 2008 they started off with massive injuries, but the same core group of champions have won everything in sight. They are a wild card team but have as good a shot as anybody at winning it all. In fact, I pick Indy in the super bowl. They have already beaten Pitt in Pitt this year, the Titans, SD @ SD and I'd put my money on Manning again. In short, this team is underrated right now. A win is a win is a win. When you see a point spread -1, I will take the team that knows how to win and did it 9 straight times in a row.
- The Colts were heavily injured at the start of the year, but as people are coming back, they have done nothing but win. I couldn't believe how little Manning had to work with early in the year, but you put a decent team around the maestro and they win.
- The Colts do NOT drop off on the road. Some teams are historically Dr. Jeckle/Mr. Hyde home and away ( yes Seattle, I am looking at you), but Peyton Manning is not fazed by playing on the road. He is the most prepared QB in the NFL ( even so much that the guy is breaking in game balls before games), now do you think Mike Vick was breaking in 50 game balls with the equipment manager before games or was betting on dog fights and getting high?
- SD has LT questionable ( he will play) and Gates. Anything to help slow those 2 down helps.
- The public is on Indy, but the public doesn't always lose.
- SD has won 4 in a row, but who did they beat?
Den ( great offense, terrible defense = average non playoff team in weak division)
TB ( The team slid at the end of the year, borderline playoff team and best win for SD)
KC ( Horrible team)
Oak ( Horrible team)
Credit them with going 4-0 but it is no that impressive considering where they were before that
Atlanta ( lost to a playoff team)
Indy ( lost to the team about to beat them again)
@ Ptt ( lost and even lost by more considering the called back Troy P TD)
KC ( one again beat a crappy team, they only won by 1 point as well)
NO ( lost in London to a border line playoff team)
@ Buffalo ( lost to a below average bills team)

So SD was losing to everybody and anybody before beating some average/bad teams and people are all over for them for what reason? They were an 8-8 football team, led by Norv Turner in the crappiest divison in pro football. They lost their star player and THIS IS NOT THEIR YEAR! If you even want to get conspiracy theorist on me, the NFL wants Peyton Manning to go play Jeff Fischer and the Titans and then a rematch with Pitt. Indy was the better team, with the better record, in the better division, with the better QB and the team isn't phased to play on the road. Colts -1 for 5 units please.

I will spare your the Miami/Ravens write up but you can access my prior posting concerning the Ravens forcing turnovers and Miami NOT turning the ball over. It is very possible that that Atlanta/Miami's turn around seasons end here, but can they cover???

Philly can beat anybody in the NFL ( I am mostly scared about them for the Giants in the NFC), but they can play down to competition and lose to anybody in the NFL. Earlier in the season, it looks like Donovan didn't give a shit when in his big fat Parka in a tie game to the Bengals. After being benched, he had the eye of the tiger again. The Eagles had ripped off impressive wins and they are BETTER than their record indicates as they are 10-6 ATS. The Vikings on the other hand have the worst starting QB in the entire playoffs. They were 6-10 ATS and were 9,000 seats short of a sell out for their first hosted playoff in years. The NFL should black this game out, and they gave the people of Minnesota an extension but this game could be blacked out. The Eagles are the better team, they have had some struggles on the road but they can beat anybody when they want to. Today, they want to. Andy Reid's job could be in the line.

1 more thing... Look at all my picks, Arizona, Indy, Miami, Philly
Kurt Warner > Rookie Matt Ryan
Peyton MVP Manning > Priscilla cry baby Rivers
Penny > Rookie Flacco
Sir Donovan > Terrible Tavaras Jackson

Thursday, January 01, 2009

Some wildcard playoff stats to look at

Playoff stats

Atlanta @ Arizona
Arizona's offense had 30 turnovers and Warner is always a threat to Turnover the ball.
Atlanta's defense forced 18 take aways (tied for worst in the NFC)
So does that negate a lot of Warner being turnover prone? Kurt Warner is turnover machine but Atlanta doesn't force turnovers. Good thing for Arizona?

Kurt Warner is immobile and holds onto the ball forever, making him a sack target.
Atlanta had a respectable 34 sacks, but nearly half of their 34 sacks came from 1 player (Abraham). Does that mean Arizona doubles John Abraham and more or less takes care of that problem?

Arizona's defense created 30 turnovers and is facing a rookie QB. Matt Ryan had an outstanding year for a rookie but he is still a rookie starting a road playoff game. Can he keep pace scoring wise with Kurt Warner? Road teams that can't score aren't good bets and Atlanta was 4-4 on the road scoring under 20 points per game. Do you think 20 points will be enough to beat Arizona or will Atlanta play better than usual?

I had an opinion on the total, but how do you all feel about this?
Arizona is 7-1 on overs at home
Atlanta is 2-6 on overs on the road

Arizona pretty much always scores at home ( they average 30 PPG) and win (6-2 home record), and Atlanta with their rookie QB tends to go under and play .500 ball on the road. So what gives? Will Arizona make it an offensive game, or with Atlanta score under 20 points and keep the total under? Will the playoffs bring out the best in Atlanta or does the home team do what they do and score and win at home?

Atlanta seems like the easy play for most people ( hit between 60-80% by my sources), but what do the stats say? People are pounding the over and to be honest that was my first instict for a play in this game.

As a New York Giants guy I am hoping Arizona wins because they have little to no shot at going into NY and beating the Giants.

Philly @ Minnesota
Philly’s Pressure defense created 29 TO’s and 49 sacks ( 3rd best in NFL)
Minnesota’s offense had 31 Turnovers and starts a weak Tavaras Jackson
Will they keep it simple stupid and run the ball with the purple Jesus?

Peterson led the NFL in rushing and is the best back. The Vikings average 159.2 yards rushing at home and 4.7 per pop. Very impressive. On the other end though, the Eagles have one of the better run defenses giving up 92 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per pop. The more and more they contail Peterson, the more times they get to tee off on a weak terrible Tavaras Jackson at QB. Both coaches also seem to be on the hot seat to win a playoff game.

The Vikings were 6-2 at home, while Philly had a losing record. Philly could beat any team in the NFL when they are on, but then again they can play down to their opponents and tie the Bengals after 5 quarters of sloppy play. Philly thrashed Dallas last week but lost to Washington on the road the week before. Washington didn't beat Philly that game, Philly beat Philly that game. Will Philly win this week or beat themselves?

Baltimore @ Miami
Miami led the NFL in Take aways/give aways being +17.
The Dolphin defense created 30 Turnovers but the offense only had a minute 13 give aways thanks to the most accurate QB in NFL history and RB's that didn't fumble a lot To keep in mind how outstanding the offense was at protecting the ball, many NFL teams turned the ball over more than twice as many times. If Miami has 13 turnovers, and San Fran turns the ball over 35 times ( nearly 3 times the amount), then who do you think is going to win more games? Miami created 30 turnovers which was pretty good ( although not the best), but they were dominant at not turning the ball and although the Giants had 13 turnover also, the 2nd best AFC teams at protecting the ball were still 25% worse.

Baltimore led the NFL with 34 take aways and Joe Flacco’s offense only gave the ball up 21 times.

Everybody likes Baltimore's dominant and turnover creating defense, but will they go into Miami and turn Pennington into a 2, 3 or 4 turnover quarterback? Will a less than impressive Joe Flacco go on the road and win a playoff game as a rookie? Miami is a home dog facing a team who'se strength ( turnovers) matches up directly with their own ( not turning the ball over). What gives?

The public loves Baltimore here, but do you take the home dog?

Picks to come out later...
Leans: Arizona, Philly, Indy, Miami
I also feel that Philly and Indy both have decent shots to go to the SB as wild card teams.

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