Pro Football Picks

I think the Jim More Sr. comments about Vick are misunderstood. He didn't just go out and announce that Vick is a coach killer. Jim Mora Sr. was on a morning radio show where Vick was called a coach killer and Mora more or less AGREED with him.

I thought I went over a lot of stuff about Vick, but another pet peeve of mine is how the guy holds onto the ball. He's been playing for years, but he still holds the ball like a loaf of bread. He had key a key fumble against Detroit where he wasn't even hit, he was running around and the ball slipped out of his hand. He had 2 more picks and a key fumble against Cleveland. Now here you have the Atlanta Falcons in a playoff race... PLAYOFFS???? Here you have the Atlanta Falcons in a playoff race and they can't even beat the Lions and Browns. Vick loves getting credit when he makes a big play, or his team wins, but he can't take the heat when he costs his team very winable games. When he losses he has been known to throw his teammates under the bus and that is not what a quarterback or leader is supposed to do.

I hear how the Atlanta receivers drop the most balls in the league, which is not true. That drop Crumpler had against Baltimore last week was a poor pass. Crumpler did get his hands on the ball, but he had to completly lay out to even touch the pass. Crumpler still could have made the catch, but it would have been a highlight reel kind of play. Every time a Falcon drops a pass, Vick supporters point that he has no team. Eli Manning had between 6 and 9 dropped balls against the Jaguars but I don't hear those excuses for Eli. The bottom line is that Vick and his supporters continue to make excuse after excuse for poor play.

I'm not a fan of Vick, and I'm not a fan of his head coach either. Jim Moron JR. is probably the worst head coach in the NFL. If his last name were not MORA, he would not be a head coach. All the guy does is stands there and kisses Mike Vick's ass at any chance. Vick could be on a rollout play at the goalline and get knocked out of bounds for a no gain, but Mora will come over and smile and kiss his ass when he comes over to the sidelines. After his dad agreed that Vick was a coach killer, Moron Jr. said he would select Vick over any player of all-time in an ultimate draft.

First of all, thanks DAD for putting your son in such a shitty position, second of all, is Junior smoking crack? Vick isn't even an Average Quarterback this year. Joey Harrington has started 7 games and thrown for more yards. Vick has less passing yards than JP Losman ( maybe the worst starter in the league), and backup Damon Huard. Senecca Wallace has a higher QB rating and he's a fellow scrambler. Mark Bunell got benched and he has a much higher QB rating.

Jim Mora Jr. got a head coaching job at such a young age. I don't feel that he proved himself, and I don't think he has that strong of a personality. I think it's a tough job to coach a Mike Vick, and giving him praise and telling him he's the best ever is the last thing he needs. It would be like coaching Brett Favre and to keep telling him to " take chances". Just let Mike Vick be Mike Vick is what he believes in. I've heard fans talking about just letting Vick do whatever he wants. Don't have a playbook, but to just let Vick run around and do whatever he wants.... Yeah, if you were head coach, you wouldn't want to PLAN, but you would just want to play back yard football and let your QB do whatever he wants?

One of the biggest issues I have with Junior happened this week. I was watching a replay of the Falcons/Ravens game and the head coach was on the sidelines WITHOUT A HEAD SET!!! I know he doesn't call the plays for offense or defense, but now he wasn't even listening to them! I believe his offensive coordinators told the little boy head coach to just get away.

Apparently when there were rumors of fighting a few weeks ago, it was between the offensive and defensive coordinators. Jim Mora Jr. looks more and more like a little boy as his coordinators ( who really run the show) were duking it out. It's not like the little boy head coach paces the sidelines, talking about what kinds of plays to call, the little boy head coach is resorted to just a cheerleader of Michael Vick. For Junior to just walk the sidelines without a head set is a freaking joke. He is a token head coach who is there because of his last name.

The Washington Redskins.

There should be an ESPN story coming out pretty soon how one of the Redskins defenders told ESPN that the team is a joke. The unnamed player told ESPN that defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is too cocky, runs predictable schemes, and the coaches haven't talked to Adam Archuleta in a month. The player said that Dan Snyder is aware of the problem.

I heard another great team building story about the redskins. It appears that 2 of the redskins coaches coach the defensive backs. Instead of having a DB coach, they have a coach for the corners, and a coach for the safeties. It appears that these coaches don't like each other, and the DB's have seperate meetings before the games. The Corners have their meetings with their coach, and the safeties have their meetings with their coach. That is one of the craziest things I have ever heard. The coaches feud is so great, that they are compermising the team as a result.

The Redskins team is more of a circus than I thought. The players are mad at coaches, the coaches are mad at coaches, the team has 23 coaches, and the GM has been doing a terrible job.

The team charged the salargy cap to the max, and doesn't even have that many young players in the pipeworks to help rebuild the team. They have wasted nearly 10 middle to late round draft picks with their spending. They wasted 3rd and 4th rounders acquring Mark Brunell and Jason Campbell. The wasted a pick to bring in James Thrash. Wasted a 3rd rounder to bring in Brandon Lloyd. They wasted a 2nd round pick to bring in Clinton Portis. They wasted a 3rd round pick to bring in TJ Duckett.

There are nearly 10 picks in rounds 2-6 that they just wasted. These young draft picks are supposed to make lower salaries, and be those hungry guys that you build your team with. The 2nd round pick is supposed to be a starter, and even those 6th round guys are supposed to push the starters for playing time.

The Redskins have been the worst managed team in profootball. A lot of those picks they wasted they didn't even have to waste. If they didn't TRADE for James Trash, I am sure the Eagles would have cut in. Instead of waiting it out, little Danny Synder needed that instant gratification and just had to waste a draft pick on bringing him over.

They traded one of the top corners in the game for one of the better young runningbacks. Denver can turn anybody with a pulse into a decent runningback, but reliable corners are hard to find. Not only did the redskins get rid of a top corner, but they also sent a 2nd round pick too! If they really would have waited it out a little bit more, Denver would have probably just done the 1 for 1 swapola.

They traded for Jason Campbell like he was some future franchise player. Eli Manning was traded for 3 draft picks, and the Redskins traded 3 for Jason Campbell. After they got Jason, he was inactive for nearly 2 seasons.

Mark Brunell wasn't just given a big contract, they trade PICKS to bring him over!!! It was widely speculated that Jacksonville was just going to cut him anyway!!

The Redskins have a shopping problem that hasn't shown any sign of sense. Instead of having 10 bodies fighting for that defense, they have a bunch of overpaid free agents that haven't panned out. While the Giants could draft an Osi Omenyouri, the Eagles a Derrick Burgess , the Cowboys a Demarcus Ware, the Redkins overpay for a 4.5 sack Andre Carter. It could be a tough task to rebuild this team with the lack of the in house talent. I have enjoyed watching this ship sink the entire season.

I love how good results warrant the term "genius". The term is used so often in the NFL now that it's a joke. I'd like to talk about three Geniui or genuises.

Tony Dungy, the genius.
How come each time his Colts lose a playoff game they talk about how Peyton Manning is a chock artist. I've never heard anybody bash the mild mannered Dungy. People are very quick to point out Peyton not beating Florida when he was in college at Tennessee, and Peyton not beating Brady in the pros. The teams that Peyton HAS lost to in the playoffs, ( New England and Pittsburgh) have gone on to win the superbowls.

Peyton Manning is unbelievable, Tony Dungy is not. Do you think there are a lot of people who can do what Peyton Manning do? I don't. Do you think there are a lot of people that can do what Tony Dungy can do? More than a few.

Tony Dungy was labeled a defensive genius for his work in Tampa Bay. He was credited with "building" that franchise. Last time I checked, the general manager drafted the team. Tony was lucky enough to coach a defense with Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, John Lynch, Rhonde Barber, Donnie Abraham, Simeon Rice, Chiti Ahanatou, Anthony Mcfarland, Brian Kelley, and of course Dexter Jackson.

Dungy was playing with a stacked deck of cards. He was credited with the "Tampa 2". Tony Dungy didn't invent the cover 2! There are only so many ways you can play defense... Man or zone. If zone you can choose from cover 1, cover 2, cover 3, cover 4 and mix and match who plays where and who blitzes. Dungy's cover 2 was more famous for where the underneath players played so that it would change the conventional ways to attack the cover 2. Basically, his version of the cover 2 just changed the depths of the linebackers and corners, and where they stood in their quadrants of the zone. Now I might be a little bit harsh, but don't you think having John Lynch, Rhonde Barber, and Derrick Brooks standing in those zone would help out? How about a nasty Warren Sapp rushing the passer in his prime?

Tampa's defense was no doubt good, but Dungy couldn't win the big one. When they acquired Brad Johnson, Keyshaun and some other offensive pieces, they were deemed the paper champions. Their " strong defense" lost to Philly in round 1 of the playoffs. Maryball was kicked out of Kansas City because he would have 12-4 and 14-2 teams but lose in the playoffs. Dungy would get outcoached every year but he was still there. Eventually he was booted out of town ( which a lot of people didn't like), but Jon Gruden won a championship with the team the very next year!!! Even after coach chucky won the title, people still wanted to credit Dungy.

Dungy has been in Indy for years, and his defense isn't what makes this team tick. If he still had Shaun King, or Brad Johnson coaching this team they would probably be winless. The fact of the matter is that Dungy has the hottest commodity in the NFL, Peyton Manning. Dungy's colt defenses have been soft, and terrible. Tony Dungy has been anything BUT a defensive genius in Indianapolis, and instead of calling Peyton the goat every year after they lose in the playoffs, look at Dungy who has had a previous Superbowl caliber team only to lose every year in the playoffs.

Genius #2, Marvin Lewis.
Marvin Lewis has a situation very similar to Dungy. Marvin was the coach of the 2000 Ravens and one of the best defenses of all-time. Don't you think YOU would have a good defense if you had Ray Lewis, Peter Boulware, Jaime Sharper, Rod Woodson, Chris Mccalister, Duane Starks, Mike Mccrary, Tony Siragosa?

As defensive coordinator, Marvin had one of the most talented defenses of all-time. He later moved south on the beltway to coach the Washington Redskins and their high payroll defense. His defenses were average and below and his players spoke out against his "confusing" schemes. They didn't work when he had good talent, as opposed to the BEST talent.

Marvin was given a job with the Bengals, and has had piss poor defenses every year. In fact, the Bengals are ranked the worst defense in the NFL! How is it possible for a "defensive genius", to have the worst defense in the entire NFL?

Marvin was lucky enough to get one of the other top commodities in the entire NFL, Carson Palmer. It Marvin wasn't lucky enough to have such a great offense, his team would be terrible. As it is, the bengals are .500. If you wanted to go beyond X's and O's, the bengals have one of the most misbehaved teams in pro sports. The Bengals and their off field conduct are really giving the Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins a run for their money.

Genius #3 Brian Billeck.
Billeck is in the same situation as Dungy and Marvin Lewis, only in an offensive sense. Billeck was deemed a "genius" after being the offensive coordinator in Minnesota. Let's take a look at some of the toys he had to play with.

Robert Smith- a smart and speedy probowl runningback
Cris Carter - Possibly the best receiver ever ( or 2nd to Jerry Rice)
Randy Moss- Possibly the most talented receiver ever
Jake Reed- A solid receiver who was a borderline probowl player
ProBowlers on the offensive line
Brad Johnson- an efficient player


and a turf homefield. The fact that his homefield was on amplified that speed. After Billeck went to Baltimore, his team didn't look like some high flying offense. His superbowl team consisted of play good defense, and pound Jamal Lewis. It was as simple as pie, run the ball and play good defense.

After they won the title, the arrogant Billeck tried to have an enhanced formula. He tried to install a more daring passing game, and had to replace quarterbacks pretty much every year. I believe he has gone through between 5 and 7 quarterbacks. The Ravens offense has added former MVP Steve Mcnair and it still looks boring. They try and run the ball, but Jamal Lewis looks to have lost a step from his 2,000 yard season and superbowl year. Billeck has tried changing offensive coordinators and now HE calls the plays. He now has nobody to blame for failure except his "genius" self.

Steelers +3 @ Ravens ( 2 units)

The Steelers are 4-6 and 1-4 on the road
The Ravens are 8-2 and 4-1 at home

Now how come the Steelers are only 3 point dogs? This sugests that the teams are virtually equal on a neutral field and the steelers would be 3 point favorites at Pittsburgh?

I think the Steelers going on a run last year was no streak of luck. I think the Steelers have one of the best coaching staffs and organizations in sports. Dick Leabou is a top notch defensive coordinator, and Russ Grimm is one of the best offensive line coaches. Bill Cower is a master motivator and I believe the steelers late season run was no luck. Their style of play, home field, and coaching makes them a threat later in the year. I'm not sure, but Bill Cower coached teams have traditionally started off slower, and improved later in the year.

I rode the2-6 Steelers a few weeks ago when they were nearly touchdown favorites over the 6-2 saints.

I think this line is probably this low because of where the steelers are NOW, instead of what they have done all year. The rivarly factor is there also. I know Hines ward is questionable and it could hurt pittsburgh, but the Ravens have their injury concerns of their own. I believe a lot of this game comes down to the Ravens being "due" for a loss. The Ravens have won a lot of close games. The Ravnes could have easily lost that Chargers game early in the year. One the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh has lost more than their fair share of close games.

Last week the Steelers won a thriller in Cleveland. The game was one of those tough games that could have gone either way, but you have to think the Steelers didn't play their best game. That early Big Ben pick 6 was awful and not something you see every week. The Steelers return game has been a problem thus far, but you have to think they will practice extra hard for Super Sams. If the game has that kind of feel like last week, the Steelers have a good shot of winning or covering.

Bill Parcells has his theory that if you have two teams that are pretty equal talent wise, the team that has more on the line will win more often than not. If the Steelers lose, they are done. If the Steelers do win, they get two home games they are clear favorties in against Tampa and Cleveland. I like the Steelers to win or lose by no more than 3 making it the week 12 sucker bet.

The rest of week 12 besides turkey day...

Turkey Day
Miami -3 ( 1 unit)

1PM
Bengals -3 @ Browns ( 2 units)
Steelers +3 @ Baltimore ( 2 units)
4:15 PM
NY Giants -3 @ Tennesse ( 4 units)
8:15 PM
Philly @ Colts ML ( 25 units to win 6)

Bengals -3 @ Browns.
I'm surprised this line isn't moving. I know 3 is a hard number to move off of, but the public is pounding the Bengals. However, the public should be looked at as an "angle" and not a rule.

The Bengals haven't had a very successful year thus far at 5-5. They had lost 3 in a row before winning in Naw Awleans last week. They had some hard fought losses but Marvin Lewis's defense hasn't shown much. I still think Lewis is one of the most overrated coaches in pro football and if he didn't have Carson Palmer he could be in trouble. Marvin Lewis is a "defensive genius", but his defense hasn't improved at all the years he has been in Cincy. In fact, his defense wasn't that good in Washington either where he was the defensive coordinator of a huge payroll team. The last time Marvin Lewis was a genius is when he coached Ray Lewis and the 2000 Ravens "black out" defense. ( who couldn't coach that defense?)

I've said before that Cincinnati reminds me of a junior Indianapolis. Carson Palmer is the real deal and commands a dynamic offense. The Bengals can score points, but can their defense stop the bleeding?

The Browns have been loosing but fighting. I have futures on the Browns to win LESS than 7 games this year. The Browns lost a nail biter to Pittsburgh last week, beat a lame Michael Vick 2 weeks ago, lost a tough one to the chargers 3 weeks ago, and beat the Jets a month ago.

Charlie Frye actually has a chance of being somebody. I'm certainly not saying Charlie Frye WILL be any good, but he has a chance of being decent. The Browns played like a decent team and I am well aware that they could make this a game.

The point spread really should be the Browns +3, but the way the public has been hitting Cincy I'm still a little surprised the line hasn't moved. I'm not happy to be with the public on this one, but they can't lose them all. It annoys me though that people think the Bengals are so great, and the Browns are so bad. This should be a tough one but I think the Bengals win and cover. Carson Palmer is a guy that I don't like to bet against.

Pitt @ Bal ( 2 units)
Sucker bet

NY Giants @ Tennessee

All I see on ESPN now is how Eli Manning is struggling. The last 2 games the played the mighty Chicago Bears and the Jacksonville Jags. I counted between 6 and 9 dropped balls in the Jags game. There was a challenge that also took away a 50 yard completion to Plax. As " bad" as Eli Manning played, the Giants were in the game until the end. I think people have poured more criticism than necessary on Eli Manning. How come whenever an Atlanta Falcon drops a pass, we have to hear how Vick gets no help? I heard nothing about how Eli Manning’s receivers dropped all of those balls.

There is no better cure for those less than stellar performances than a game against Tennessee. The Titans have one of the leagues worst defenses and give up over 400 yards per game on average.

A few Weeks ago the Titans played the Ravens and everything that could have gone wrong for Baltimore DID. Rather than folding up and dying, Steve Mcnair kept his cool and picked apart the Titans Defense piece by piece for the entire second half. Vince Young was in a terrible position because his Titans couldn't run out the clock against the Ravens defense. The Ravens played good defense in the second half, and efficient offense and won.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Eli Manning and Tiki Barbers reestablish themselves this week. I wouldn't be surprised if Eli Manning showed off one of his new toys in the young draft pick Sinorce Moss this week. The thing that makes the Giants good, is not all the speed, but the ability of Manning to run that offense. The public is on the Giants, but not to the degree they are in some other games.

I think everybody is down on the Giants for their 2 losses in a row, and high on tennesse for thier win in philly last week and their competitive play in the past few weeks. The Giants reverse the trend and win tommorow.

Philly @ Indy

I didn't intend for such a large play on this game and I still may change my mind and reduce the number of units on this game.

I could talk about this game for a long time but it basically comes down to the colts bouncing back. A lot of the stuff that "could" go wrong in the Dallas game " did" go wrong. Tony Romo could have been the goat of the game if it weren't for a holding call on that interception that was called back. The safety that picked off the ball had nothing to do with the hold. Before everybody turns into a Romosexual, remember that he has been dodging bullets. I know everybody is impressed with his good plays, but he has been fortunate enough to miss some of those bad plays. Bill Parcells talks about how they are shooting bullets at him, but he has been dodging them. I see what parcells sees, and a guy that has takes some chances and has been lucky in avoiding some mistakes.

Side Note: Romo reminds me more of Jake Delhomme than Brett Favre. I also think those smiles won't be so cute anymore when he throws a 2 or 3 interception game.

There is no doubt in my mind that Peyton Manning could execute over that Eagles defense. I think they have been trying to score in a more controlled way to keep the defense off the field. Instead of just scoring, I have a suspicion that they try and run a more controlled offense. I wouldn't be shocked to see the colts take off the gloves this game and go downfield more. I wouldn't be surprised if the colts put up some points this game.

I think Jeff Garcia is a perfect vet backup for the Eagles, but this will be a really hard slot for him. I think Garcia can put up some numbers, but I don't think he out duels Peyton this game. The biggest fear for me would be Bryan Westbrook, but I think as high as the -400 money line is, it should probably be higher. Donovan Mcnabb was the man in Philly, and now he's out.

As requested, here are the stats so far. I am trying to label my bets as either: sucker bet, against the spread, teaser, Money Line Parlays, Quarter lines, or second half bets. The thing is that I am not sure exactly how many units I WON on some of those money line bets. I indicate how many units I "played" on every game, and usually how many I "won", but on a few of the moneyline bets only my wager is indicated. It might just say ( 5 units) where I might have won 2 or 2.25 or 2.5 etc.

Week 1)
Sucker bet: Seattle @ Detroit +6 ( no play)
Money Line: Buffalo @ New England -355 ( 17 units to win 5)
ATS: Philly -3.5 @ Houston ( win 5 units)
ATS: Dallas +3 @ Jax ( lose 5 units)
ATS: Minny @ Washington -4 ( lose 1 unit)

Week 2)
Sucker bet: Carolina @ Minny +1 ( no play)
ATS: New England -6 @ NY Jets ( win 2 units)
ATS: Cincy -10 @ Cleveland ( win 2 units)
ATS: New Orleans @ Green Bay +2 ( lose 1 unit)
ML Parlay: New England & Cincy ( played 3 units and won 2)

Week 3)
Sucket bet: Baltimore @ Cleveland +6.5 ( No Play)
Money Line: Eagles @ San Fran ( 5 units)
ATS: Eagles -6 @ San Fran ( won 2.5 units)
1st Q: Eagles -.5 1st Quarter @ San Fran ( won 2 units)
MoneyLine: Redskins @ Houston ( 5 units)
ATS: Redskins -4 @ Houston ( won 1 unit)
ATS: Jaguars @ Colts -6.5 ( won 1 unit)

Week 4)
Sucker bet: Jaguars @ Redskins +3 ( won 2.5 units)
Teaser: Jets @ Indy -1, San Diego @ Baltimore +9 ( won 2 units)
ATS: San Diego @ Baltimore +2 ( won 1 unit)
ATS: Carolina -7 @ New Orleans ( lost 1 unit)
ATS: Arizona @ Atlanta OVER 40 ( won 1 unit)

Stats thus far
50 unit bankroll, up 25 units
ATS: 11-4
Teasers: 1-0
Money Lines: 2-0
ML Parlays: 1-0
Quarter lines: 1-0
4 winning weeks, 0 losing weeks

Week 5)
Sucker bet: Kansas City @ Arizona +3.5 ( won 2.5 units)
Money Line: Washington @ New York Giants ( 5 units)
ATS: Dallas +2 @ Philly ( Lost 2 units)
ATS: Tennesse @ Indy -17.5 ( lost 1.5 units)
1st Q: Tennesse @ Indy -4.5 1st Quarter ( lost 1 unit)

Week 6)
Sucker bet: Seattle @ Rams +3.5 ( won 1.5 units)
ATS: NY Giants +3 @ Atlanta ( won 2 units)
No Play: Cincy -4.5, but then later canceled the bet
ATS: Philly -2.5 @ New Orleans ( lost 2 units)
ML Parlay: Tennesse @ Washington, Kansas City @ Pittsburgh ( Lost 5 units)
ATS: Bears -9.5 @ Arizona ( Lost 2 units)

Week 7)
Sucker bet: San Diego @ Kansas City +6 ( won 1.5 units)
Money Line: New England @ Buffalo ( bet 2.5 to win 1 unit)
ML Parlay: Pitt/ Philly/ Seattle ( lost .5 units)
ATS: Pittsburgh -2.5 @ Atlanta ( lost 1 unit)
ATS: Carolina @ Cincy -3 ( push)

Week 8)
Sucker bet: Indy @ Denver -2.5 ( lost 5 units)

thus far
ATS: 15-10-1
Teasers: 1-0
Money Lines: 4-0
ML Parlays: 2-2
Quarter Lines: 1-1
6 winning weeks, 2 losing weeks

Week 9)
Sucker bet: Dallas @ Washington +3 ( won 1.5 units)
ATS: Kansas City @ Rams -2.5 ( lost 1 unit)
ATS: Kansas City @ Rams Over 48 ( push)

Week 10)
Sucker bet: New Orleans @ Pittsburgh -5 ( won 2 units)
Teaser: Baltimore -1 @ Tennesse, Washington @ Philly -1 ( Push 5 units)
ATS: San Diego @ Cincy OVER 48 (won 1 unit)

Week 11)
Sucker bet: Colts @ Dallas "pick'em" ( won 2 units)
Money Line: New England @ Green Bay ( 5 units)
ATS: Buffalo @ Houston -1 ( Lost 3 units)
ATS: San Diego @ Denver -1 ( lost 1 unit)
ATS: Detroit @ Arizona -2 ( won 1 unit)
2nd half play: Bengals @ Saints 2nd half Over 24 ( won 4 units)

Week 12) " so far"
ATS: Miami -3 @ Detroit ( won 1 unit)

I've had a number of emails asking if I was going to play anything. I didn't intend on playing any games but I changed my mind...

Miami -3 ( 1 unit)
Miami @ Detroit kicks off in half an hour. I'm taking the Dolphins -3 for 1 unit.

Detroit is terrible. They are 2-8, and are probably the worst managed team in football. The Lions lost to the other laughing stock franchise of the NFL last week, as the torch was passed on to them. Matt Millen is a horrible GM and ruined this franchise. Mike Williams can't even get on the field, as scotty Vines and Mike Furrey were getting PT over him these past 2 years.

Detroit started the year 0-5, then beat a weak buffalo team by 3, lost to the jets, beat an off Mike Vick, and then lost to San Fran and Arizona.

If you bet Miami and lose, you can live with it. If you bet Detroit and lose, then you just feel foolish ( how did I get tricked into betting on the lions?)

Miami has won 3 in a row. They beat Da bears, chiefs and minnesota. If you will remember Miami went on a run at the end of last year as well. I have a feeling that a lot of that has to do with Nick Saban. I still think he will be a good NFL coach, and I'd guess that a lot of their late season success has to do with his staffs preparation. When Daunte Fumblepepper left the team, they had just lost to Houston. Now the Fins have won 3 in a row and Joey looks to stick it to his old team.

A lot of people will bet on Detroit because " the Lions will play hard on thanksgiving". People feel that a win will be a pennance for their home fans. Don't you think Miami will play extra hard in front of that National audience as well?

Miami will also be juiced up for one of the biggest nationally televised games of the year. Thanksgiving is the few nationally televised games that EVERYBODY will watch. Florida teams don't fare well late in the season when they are on the road in the North. The Dolphins from florida are lucky they don't have to play in cold weather.

The Dolphins clearly have a better defense, and Mike Martz might just let his quarterback gunsling this game in front of the National audience. No Kevin Jones could equal no run game for Detroit. Mike Martz is the mad scientist that loves to pass, and all those passes could equal turnovers. Kitna might have to throw 40 times in this game. A lot of throws could equal a lot of yards, but it could also mean a few turnovers. Miami has the better D, and Joey has a lot to prove in his homecoming.

Go fins.

Since I live in Washington I decided to DVR the game between the last place Redskins and Last place Bucs. It looks like Washington is going to stick with Campbell for the rest of the year, so I also wanted to scout out the fresh meat quarterback. Here are some notes I took...

1st Q
- Mike Alstott trucked Shawn Springs and ran over him. I believe the play made the ESPN highlight reels, but in case you missed it, it looked like a Mac Truck running over road kill.
- Jason Campbell's 1st pass was a play action deep throw that Brandon Lloyd dropped. The pass was not perfect but Brandon Lloyd's still should have caught it. Brandon Lloyd's job is to catch footballs and if it hits your hands you catch it. That catch could have really helped out his young quarterback and his confidence.
- Bucs Kicker Matt Bryant leveled Rock Cartwright on a kick off. The play was on a kickoff return when Cartwright just ran out of bounds. It was a late hit penalty, but it's embarrassing to get smacked by the kicker! That's what kind of season Washington is having, a guy named " Rock" got knocked down by the kicker.

2nd Q
- A little Bruce Gradkowski History. According to Jon Gruden, Bruce comes in to watch film at 7AM and leaves at 7PM. Gruden himself is a film geek and to say that about Bruce says something. I was also unaware that Bruce played with a broken hand at Toledo and once threw for over 400 yards vs Pittsburgh.
- Tampa's Offensive Line stinks, but Washington still couldn't get to the QB, and couldn't stop the run game.
- The announcers were chatting about why Tampa's defense has taken a step back this year. I was aware they lost D-Line coach Rod Marinelli, but they also lost 2 other defensive position coaches. Losing coaches to be defensive coordinators and head coaches SHOULD put a dent on that defense.
- Gradkowski seems to be a good fit for the Tampa Offense. He reminds me of a younger Jeff Garcia with his quick drop backs, control of the offense, and competitive nature. Gradkowski plays with Passion and twice spiked the ball after running for first downs, he plays like he wants to win. Gradkowski is a perfect fit for this west coast offense that relies on quick drop backs, quick decisions, and accurate throws. I wouldn't be surprised if Gruden sticks with Gradkowski instead of Chris Simms later on down the road. It seems that Gradkowski's style fits this offense.
- There was a sweep left play where redskin’s high priced free agent got dominated by 36 year old Dave Moore. Moore is the 2nd or 3rd tight end on Tampa's Roster, but had a key "seal" block on the sweep left. Carter has struggled rushing the passer this year, but was embarrassed by the 36 year old.

2nd Half
- Brandon Llyod had 2 more drops in the second half which brings his total to 3 or 4 for the game. Lloyd has been a tremendous bust thus far and hasn't helped his young quarterback out with all of those drops.
- Washington absolutely must blitz to create pressure on defense. There is no way the redskins can only rush their front 4 and create pressure.
- I was unaware that Don Breaux is actually the offensive coordinator of Washington. Al Saunders is actually the “associate head coach". Greg Williams is NOT the defensive coordinator, but an "associate head coach", while Greg Blanhe is the defensive coordinator. The Bureaucracy in Washington is a joke.
- Washington is having problems tackling on defense. I'll bet the Redskins wish they still had Jeremiah Trotter, Lavar Arrington and Antonio Pierce to play Linebacker instead of Warrick Holdman and Lamar Marshall
- The only redskins that really brought some emotion on defense were Sean Taylor and Marcus Washington. Free Agent Andre Carter got crushed by a 36 year old tight end and didn't provide any pass rush. Adam Archuleta, the other high priced Free Agent, hardly saw the field.

This Washington team looks like one of the weaker teams in the NFL and NOT the team ESPN picked to go to the superbowl.

Here are the statistics on the weekly sucker bet...
Week, record, team, pointspread, wager

Week 1
( 6-4) Seattle @ ( 2-8) Detroit +6 ( no play)
Week 2
( 6-4) Carolina @ (4-6) Minnesota +1 ( no play)
Week 3
( 8-2) Baltimore @ (3-7) Cleveland +6.5 ( 1 unit)
Week 4
( 6-4) Jacksonville @ (3-7) Washington +3 ( 2.5 units)
Week 5
(6-4) Kansas City @ (2-8) Arizona +3.5 ( 2.5 units)
Week 6
(6-4) Seattle @ (4-6) St. Louis +3.5 ( 1.5 units)
Week 7
(8-2) San Diego @ (6-4) Kansas City +6 ( 1.5 units)
Week 8
(9-1) Indy @ (7-3) Denver -3 ( 5 units LOSS)
Week 9
( 6-4) Dallas @ (3-7) Washington +3 ( 1.5 units)
Week 10
(6-4) New Orleans @ (4-6) Pittsburgh -5 ( 2 units)
Week 11
(9-1) Indy @ (6-4) Dallas "pick'em" ( 2 units)

Total
10-1 ( +9.5 units) with the only loss being Indy @ Denver in week 8 ( a 5 unit loss). I still believe it was the kind of game where who ever had the ball last won. Peyton's passing couldn't be stopped, and Indy couldn't stop the Denver run game. If the Broncos had the ball last this sucker bet might be undefeated. These bets were picking some of the least popular teams, against much stronger opponents. For example, week 1 was the superbowl runner up Seattle Seahawks against the terrible Detroit Lions... nobody gave the Lions a shot but they turned out to make it a game. In week 10 the 6-2 Saints were nearly a touchdown underdog against the 2-6 steelers. People thought the suprise saints with that offense would at least cover, but they in fact did lose by a touchdown. Another perfect example was week 11 the undefeated colts against Dallas. There was a lot of talk about Indy going undefeated but they lost in Dallas. Betting on football games isn't about picking the "better" team, but picking who will be "better" on that given day. On any given sunday, anybody can beat anybody and that's why they play the game!

Questions and comments always welcome at footballchrisl@gmail.com

Indy ML -411 ( 25 units)

Last night I saw Indy ML at 380 but hesitated to jump on it. I thought there was a mistake. -380 seemed cheap to me, but this morning I looked at the line and saw -411. I pounded 25 units as I intend on betting Philly + > 411 later.

I might actually let SOME of it ride ( say 5 units), but it looks like a good opportunity for arbitrage. I think the 1 loss Colts will bounce back against Jeff Garcia and the Beagles, and the public will probably think so also. I wouldn't be suprised to see that Moneyline bought OVER -450.

If there is free money on the table, why not pick it up? I layed a good portion of my bankroll on Indy, with the intention of arbitrage. I am kicking myself for not taking Indy -380, but there still looks like there is money to be made.

I played the Giants and Bengals early at -3 also. I think the Giants "struggles" last night consisted of about 8 dropped passes. It is true that SOME of those passes were inaccurate, but if 8 passes his your receivers hands, they need to catch at least 5 or 6 of them. Of Course Eli's stats were bad. He played the bears last week and Jax this week. Plax dropped a 50 yard bomb and numerous other passes.

There is no better way to cure your offense than played the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL, Tennesse. I look for the Giants to score points next week against the Titans.

Before the Season started ESPN had power rankings and rated the Redskins 3rd in the entire NFL. The logic was that the Redskins were 2 games away from the superbowl, and addressed their glaring weaknesses through free agency. The redskins were supposed to only get better, and go on to the superbowl ( according to ESPN. If you go back to my pre-season predictions you will find that I thought otherwise.

Everybody praised the skins for "adding" to that offense. Everybody seemed to overlook their aging signal caller Mark Brunell. People forgot that they had the worst offensive output in playoff history against the Bucs. People also "assumed" their defense would be strong. They have zero pass rush, a weak linebacker core ( except marcus washington), and 1 cornerback. They spent so much money, but it was wasted on midget receivers, blocking tight ends, and on overrated Defensive ends and safeties. The redskins got horrible returns for their money. Dan Snyder runs his team like Mr. Burns fantasy baseball team, and the skins get horrible players for their money. The team is run like the opposite of Billy Beans moneyball. The redskins go out and spend money on the highest priced free agents ( not neccesarily the best). They switch players and coaches so damn often they are often times trying to pound round pegs into square holes. The genisus at ESPN had the redskins in the superbowl, I had them finishing LAST in the NFC East. I encourage you to read my pre-season writeup where I called the redskins flop.

- The team has 23 coaches. That's flat out riddiculous. I can just picture Dan Snyer running out and signing every coach on the market. They have crafty titles for them as Greg Williams isn't the Defensive coordinator ( Greg Blance is), but the " associate Head coach".
- Al Saunders calls the plays on the entire football field EXCEPT when they get into field goal range... Then Gibbs and Saunders get on the headset and "both kind of call plays". These offensive coordinators are supposed to be chess masters that are always planning their next move but thats kind of hard when the head coach vetos the critical red zone play calls. Your either calling the plays or your NOT, they don't have an effective chain of command, and it KILLS them.
- The redskins pay lots of money for midget receivers, but they forget special teams and the less flashy positions. I remember when Snyder came to power and they let go Brian Mitchell. I always thought letting go of Mitchell was a HUGE mistake. Mitchell was the fiery return man that helped give good field position to the offense. The redskins forgot the nitty gritty guys that will fight and get dirty, and they spend money on the overaged Deion Sanders and Bruce Smith types ( Brandon Lloyd, Randel El).
- Daniel Snyder is a terrible owner. Snyder charged his fans to go watch team practices ( nobody else does), he tried to close public parking lots so his fans had to pay for HIS pay lots, he had the highest ticket prices and then raised prices even higher. The team doesn't want to draft a 3rd round no name player, but they trade picks to bring in guys like Randel El to sell jerseys. I also believe with an impending 3 game home stand they wanted to show the home fans Jason Campbell.
- The team has no patience. Successfull teams like New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indy and Philly have drafted and built their own talent. Washington is constantly changing players, trading draft picks, and changing coaches. Instead of sticking with guys and letting them grow, the redskins just replace a high priced free agent with a NEW high priced free agent. The lack of continutity is killing the franchise.
- I believe the redskins have signed 22 free agents that USED to be probowlers, and NONE of them have been probowlers for washington. It just proves that they waste their money on the free agent pool each year. They let go of guys like Antonio Pierce, Jermiah Trotter, and Fred Smoot, but they waste money on #3 receivers.
- Joe Gibbs isn't as great as all the redskins fans think. He had stacked teams his first time around, and now it appears the game has passed him by. Gibbs has reduced his own rule to head executive, while Greg Williams and Al Saunders run the show. Gibbs didn't even have shotgun formations his first season back, and he said they didn't have Jason Campbell practice shotgun so couldn't run it against Tampa( who's fault is that)?


To add insult to injury, Jon Gruden said his team prepaired for the redskins ONE DAY!!! The Bucs had a monday night game LAST week, and a Thanksgiving game NEXT week. The redskins were bunched inbetween two short weeks and were only worth one day of preparation... The 2 win bucs still beat the Washington Joke skins.

Week 11 was super. It could have been flawless if not for a few Fluke plays by Buffalo. They had the perfect plays called for the Houston blitz, and perfect executing on those Lee Evans Td's. It's not like Buffalo is USED to calling and executing like that, as Losman had more yards in a few minutues than he did in two previous weeks. The moose came in that game and it hurt. Denver is cruising along right now, and it looks like this week will only have one loss. It could have been a perfect monster week with the Houston loss of 3 units, being a win of 3 units ( 6 unit turnaround). I'm happy with how the week went, and that Bengals/Saints game played perfectly into my hands. I wished for a low scoring first half ( and got it), and I wished for a O/U total of 24 ( and got it). It should be between a 6 and 7 unit winning week ( 7 minus juice) as long as Denver holds on. 6 or 7 units is good, but 12 or 13 units could have been a monster sunday if not for a few fluke plays in Houston.

Here are the early line jumps for next week.
Cincy -3 @ Cleveland ( 2 units)
New York Giants -3 @ Tennesse ( 2 units)

I could always reverse my bet by playing the other side, but there is at least a decent shot that these lines move to -3.5, or -4. If I want, I might have the chance to try and middle these games, or play them at this smaller number.

Carson Palmer and Eli Manning against Chuck Frye and Vince Young.

Congrats to everybody who was aboard this week, and Questions and comments are always welcome.

Everything is going very well so far.
Added: Saints/Bengals OVER 24 ( 4 units)

New England is the big play so far and they are cruising along 21-0 over Green Bay

Houston had 2 fluke plays from Lee Evans for scores. The Bills had the right play, called against the right defense, and they executed perfectly. The Bills were up 14-0 on 2 perfect plays. Houston scored their points the conventional way, but marching down field with ease. They should have even ANOTHER score, if it weren't for a red zone fumble. This game could easily be about 21-7 for Houston. I am confident Houston still wins this game, as they have played better so far. You can't COUNT a 70 yard bombs to your receivers, but Houston marching downfield is a lot more consistant.

The saints/Bengals 1st half has gone perfect. Redzone turnovers had curbed this offensive game into a 10-7 first half. The game could easily have scored 30+ points by now.

I was hoping for a low scoring first half, and that's exactly what I got. The low score wasn't a function of no offense, but if mistakes in the redzone. I posted before that the total slipped a little too high for my price tag ( Over 52) and I was hoping for exactly this scenerio. Right now, by buying OVER 24, I need more than 41 points for the whole game. I just saved myself 11 points on the total, by waiting until halftime.

Added: Arizona Cards -2 ( 1 unit)

New England ML ( 5 units)
Houston -1 ( 3 units)
Dallas pick ( 2 units)
Denver -1 ( 1 unit)
Arizona -2 ( 1 unit)
and I will be looking at 2nd half overs in the Cards and Saints game.

I was 50/50 about taking the Cards but I do think Matty gets his first win as a pro today. Detroit is a road fade, and they have produced nothing but Losses and Overs on the road. If I lose, I will cry that " The Lions ARE who we thought they were".

In one of the write ups I talked about the Favorites covering at a high mark last year. The reason why favorites ( and the house) won last year is because of weeks like this. I see these public dogs LOSING today. Last week pretty much all of the dogs barked ( except washington). It's not like these huge spreads keep covering ( they got killed last week). The reason why the favorites won last year is because of small favorites winning ( which I think happens this week).

I saw a commerical that had a " win a trip to the superbowl" contest. In the contest they had a New England Patriot and a New York Giant. I think that's funny because a few weeks ago I said if your going to bet on the Giants or Pats, do it now. Of course they both LOST those big games, but I thought it was funny.

Good Luck, questions and comments are always welcome to footballchrisl@gmail.com

Dallas Cowboys "pick'em" ( 2 units)

The sucker bet is now 9-1 on the year! The one loss this season was when the Colts beat Denver in Denver. Although it was a loss, it was one of those kinds of games where whoever has the ball last wins. Peyton had the ball last and won. Peyton was scoring at will with his passing attack, Denver was scoring at will with their running attack. You can't win them all, and 9 out of 10 is pretty damn good.

This week I will have to go against the only opponent who beat me, the colts. There are 31 other teams in the NFL and plenty of other games but I have to go against the colts. It's tough to bet against Peyton Manning, but I have to coinvince myself that this isn't a play against Peyton, but a play against that terrible defense.

The colts are a 9-0 undefeated team that opened as a 1 point underdog against the 5-4 cowboys. There is no such thing as a "gift" from Las Vegas. Those odds makers are on point, and often times have totals and spreads that are so close to the actual outcomes. The oddsmakers have more access to information, and they know the public like the sheep that they are. There is a big psychology factor into capping these games. Remember last week we had the 6-2 New Orleans Sanits go into Pittsburgh as 6 point underdogs agains the 2-6 Pittsburgh Steelers? The Public wanted to take the 6-2 team getting almost a touchdown, because even if they lost they "should cover". Well the steelers won by 7 and the public lost their shirt.

The colts are 9-0 but the margins of their wins isn't that impressive. It seems that they have played DOWN to a lot of their weaker competition, and played hard against some of their fiercest competition. Their offense is really good, but their defense is really bad. The style of their play puts so much pressure on the braniac Peyton and the rest of that finesse offense. The closest wins for them were actually a 1 point wins over Buffalo and Tennesse. They beat Denver by 3, and New England and Jacksonville by 7 each.

I'm actually suprised the colts are undefeated. If you stepped away from their players, and looked at them statistically, it's kind of amazing that they beat two of the worst teams in the leauge by 1 point each and yet they are undefeated. It's kind of amazing that all their games have come down to 1 possession or less and that they are undefeated. I think the colts are due to go down, and Dallas will be their waterloo.

The Dallas Cowboys are 5-4, but have new life after naming Tony Romo the starting quarterback. The team should really be 3-0 under romo, if not for a blocked 35 yard field goal against washington. I'm not sold on Romo as a QB at all, but he gives that what Bledsoe couldn't give them. Bledsoe was nicknamed " the statue of Liberty" because he held onto the ball forever. His untimley interceptions, and fumbles will kill a team. Turnovers kill. Romo might or might not be the passer that Bledsoe is, but just by eliminating those turnovers it made Dallas a better team. Bledsoe also used Terry Glenn as his "go-to" guy, but Romo loves throwing to TO. If anything, maybe that will help out the chemistry in Dallas.

In case you missed it, Dallas has the #3 ranked defense in the NFL ( yards wise) right behind da bears and the dolphins. Parcells has his defense the way he likes it. A lot of coaches love speed. In the mid 90's Jimmy Johnson was notorios for finding the fastest players for their positions. He would even move a safety to linebacker to just have that much speed. Parcells has always been a guy that would go for bigger, stronger, more veteran players. He would take a Veteran Brian Cox type player at Linebacker that might not be a speed demon, but was big, nasty, and liked to hit.

Dallas runs a 34 front, but I thought I saw a statistic that their front 7 was the biggest in football. It was kind of deceptive because Greg Ellis ( now injured) was really a big DE lined up at OLB. Parcells has his bigger 3-4 front, but he has his Y2K version of Lawernce Taylor in Demarcus Ware. Ware is that animal manchild that you just can't account for. Parcells Dallas front might not be the fastest in the league, but they are big and tough. Those guys take up space, and you might even see Roy Williams creeping down to the front 7 to hit people. The Dallas Defense is ranked 4th against the run, and 9th against the pass.

Peyton has had some trouble against the 3-4 in his career. The Chargers were the first team to beat him last year. Shawn Merriman played the role that Demarcus Ware will play today. The chargers blitz, blitz, blitzed and got to Manning. One of the big complaints I had against Denver a few weeks ago, is that they didn't Blitz Peyton and get to him. Parcells is no fool, and I EXPECT him to bring the heat on Peyton. The other team that beat the Colts last year was the Steelers and their 3-4. They brought the heat, and they too beat Peyton. Peyton's perennial arch rival, the New England Patriots also run the 3-4. I'm not sure WHY he has had some trouble against the 3-4, but it's been there. It could be due to not knowing where all 4 linebackers will go with those disguised coverages, or it could be a false correlation. Maybe it's not the 3-4 defenses that he has trouble with, all of those 3-4 defneses are also GOOD defenses. Dallas does have a good defense too though.

Parcells is no fool. In the press conference he hinted that the colts will see a heavy dose of Marion Barber AND Julious Jones. I think that Parcells will try and use the blueprint and beat Peyton. Run Run Run on offense, and Blitz Blitz Blitz on defense. Expect the ball to bounce the other way, and the intangibles to favor Dallas. The cowboys can really give Romo a name today. Philly should cruise over the Titans, and the Giants could lose against Jacksonville. In two weeks, Dallas could be in first place if they beat the Giants. How hyped up would the cowboys be if they beat both Mannings and are in first place? We will hear so much about Romo and Owens on ESPN our heads will sping. I'm not sure HOW dallas wins, but they do. The game could be fixed for all I know, but I know for damn sure I wouldn't bet on the colts today. I have a smaller play on Dallas, but I wouldn't bet on the colts.

The Plays...
New England ML ( 5 units)
Houston -1 ( 3 units)
Dallas pick ( 2 units)
Denver -1 ( 1 unit so far)

and I am looking to play the 2nd Half overs in the Saints/Cincy and Detroit/Arizona games because I hate overpaying for anything in life.

The backup Quarterback is always the most popular guy on the team. As we learn people, we seem to focus on all of the positives. In realtionships, we might focus on our girlfriends pretty eyes, big butt, or warm smile. As time wears on, we might glaze over the positives and instead focus on her mood swings, bossy behavior, and nagging.

As football fans, we might love what the backup quarterback did in college, his big arm, and his mobility. Fans grow tired of the starting quarterbacks imperfections ( old girlfriend), and they start to be seduced by all of the backup quarterbacks positives. That is why the backup quarterback is always the most popular guy on the team. The backup quarterback is always what the starter isn't in theory. Theory and reality often differ.

Mark Brunell took over for Patrick Ramsey last year. Brunell is a 15 year vet that took his Jacksonville Jags one game short of the superbowl. He has had a successful career, making good decisions, and throwing on the run. Patrick Ramsey was chosen to run Steve Spurriers offense. Ramsey is tall, big, and has a strong arm. Bruell is more mobile and experienced than Ramsey. Ramsey would play pretty decent during stretches, but he would also make those costly interceptions.

I don't see much difference between Jason Campbell and Patrick Ramsey. It seems that all of Washington has been begging for Campbell for the whole season, and now they finally got their wish.

Doc Walker and Brian Mitchell ( former redskins) are now hosts of popular radio shows. It seems that everybody had the tune of " Put Campbell in because he has a stronger arm and gives us a better chance to win". Now that Campbell is in it seems their tone has changed. Now I hear " we understand he is young and will make some mistakes". You can't have it both ways. You either want Campbell in because he is better, or want Campbell in because your season is done and you want the kid to get some experience.

I've heard all sorts of stuff on the radio. Some people said that Campbell should play because he is more mobile ( that is not true). The redskins fans have offered up every possible excuse to let Campbell play. It just seems Brunell got all of the blame for the redskins shortcomings. Now that Campbell is the starter, people are already making excuses for him before hand.

Whether I am right or wrong, I will give you my opinion. I think Campbell will be no better than a Patrick Ramsey. Just look at all the commentary on Campbell, and you can easily replace his name with Ramsey. I think the Ramsey and Campbell scouting reports are copied and pasted... Tall, strong, strong arm, southern flair. We all know how Ramsey turned out.

Everybody is in love with Campbell now, but even John Thompson pointed out that his deliver is a little bit unorthadox looking. Campbell is tall, with a strong arm, but he will have the same problems Brunell had. I wasn't too impressed with Campbell at Auburn, and he had the best backfield in college football history with Cadallac Williams and Ronnie Brown.

Comparing Campbell to Ramsey is just so simple for me. It's right there and nobody can say a bad word about Campbell. Campbell is on that "honeymoon" phase right now, and Brunell is a tired act. People get emotional and sometimes can't seperate facts from emotion. Just like when the redskins win, people automatically say " they played great", where as when they lose " they didn't show up today". The redskins won the Dallas game on a Dallas missed 35 yard field goal. People were talking about how " the skins showed up". If Vandercrack would have MADE the 35 yard field goal, those same casual fans would have talked about how the redskins stunk all game.

I can and will admit if I am wrong, but I don't see Jason Campbell being anything special.

Bills @ Houston -1 (3 units) ( see previous post)
New England ML -230 @ Green Bay ( 5 units)
San Diego @ Denver -1 ( 1 unit so far)
Hard looks
Cincy @ New Orleans over 52 ( look for 2nd half bet on the over)
Detroit @ Arizona over 45.5 ( look for 2nd half bet on over)

New England has lost two in a row. I don't know the last time BB and Brady lost 3 in a row, but I like thier chances here. The Pats have NOT lost yet on the road ( 4-0), and the Pack have for some reason struggled at home (1-3). New England is due for a win, and I've hard talk of ( cough cough) playoffs for the Packers. Don't be fooled, the Packers are NOT a playoff team. There is an old saying about the stock market, to "get out", when the shoe shine boy starts talking about how great the market is. Talk of the Packers in the playoffs means it's time to sell. The Pack have won 3 of 4 against weak competition, but now they will be playing a New England team hungry for a win. There is a lot of money on the Patriots -5.5, but the ML is only -230. I'd say there is a decent chance that the Pack covers, but I really like the Pats to win straight up and will lay five units on -230.

San Diego and Denver are clearly the class of the NFC West. Denver should be a 3 point home favorite, but I think the wild cincy/ SD game has more people looking to bet the chargers. Fans love offense, excitement, new players, and LT scoring 4 touchdowns. Let's not forget that Denver has won 7 of their last 8 games, and they would have beat the colts if they had the ball last. It was one of those sorts of games where whoever has the ball last wins.

It's a sunday night game where 58% of people at wagerline.com are on the chargers. Dogs are supposed to bark the loudest on Nationally televised games, but I think this is a rare situation...

Last year the favorites won something like 60% of the time ( which is signifigant). People assume that since favorites beat underdogs 60% of the year that the "public" had a good year... Not true. Last year a lot of public dogs lost which hurt the public. San Diego is one of those public dogs. The line really should be SD +3, but if the line was SD +3 on a Nationally televised game everybody would pound the chargers. The line is SD +1 and the chargers STILL have 58% of the bets on them.

Not only is Denver solid Value, but I'd also give them a slight edge in this game. Phillip Rivers will be on his second consecutive road game in a very hostile enviornment. Denver argueably has the best homefield advantage in the entire NFL. Some would say that the hometeam gets 3 points, but some homefield advantages ( Denver, Seattle, etc.) are really worth more like 4. Denver's defense is good, and they only give up 3.6 yards per carry against the run which should help slow down LT. The Broncos give up only 12.3 points per game. Right now I only have 1 unit on Denver, but depending on how tommorow goes, I might add to that play.

Cincy @ New Orleans over 52 ( no play)
I like the over in the Bengals/Saints game, but the line already shifted upward ( from 49 to 52) and I hate overpaying for anything in life. Instead of paying 3 more points, I will sit on the sidelines and look to bet on the 2nd half. Hopefully, the first half has failed conversions and bad field position which leads to a low 2nd half over/under. I will be drooling if the 2nd half over at around 24 or less. Sometimes games start off slow, and scoring opportunites fail, but this game has two teams with very good offenses and average to bad defenses. Not only are both offenses good, but they like to PASS and they are on TURF! Drew Brees has proved everything he needs to prove to me, and the saints of 2006 remind me of those rams teams of the late 90's.

I'd probably say that both the Saints and Bengals offenses are probably a little underrated, and their defenses are both a little overrated. I'm still not sold on the saints D. The Bengals offense had some chad Johnson drama for a while ( that looks over) as they were failing to execute. It's not like the Bengals couldn't score, they were just executing poor, the team DOES have all the pieces to be a high scoring team.

Two of the biggest factors in an Over/Under bet is the playing surface and the weather. This game between two good offenses, and two bad defenses is indoors and on turf. Palmer and Brees are both in the 2nd Tier of Quarterbacks. Once again, if the 2nd half Over is under 24 ( for whatever reason), I will look to pound the 2nd half over. You never know, the score at halftime could be 13-10 and the public could have their opinion swayed. One of the other things to remember about 2nd half bets is that defenses get tired, offenses adjust, and there is always the possibility of overtime

I like the over/under the in the Lions/Cards game as well, but I hate overpaying for anything. If I could rewind to when these lines came out I would have played the Over at 44, but I don't want to buy now at 45.5 . The Lions have played OVER on their last 4 road games giving up 34, 41, 26, and 31 point all in losses. Their defense doesn't travel, and they have the mad scientist calling plays on offense. The cardinals love to pass on offense, and Matty Leinart should have all of his receivers tommorow. I also think Matty Leinart gets his first win as a starter tommorow in front of all 27 Cardinals fans. If the 2nd half over/under is reasonable, I will buy the OVER for the 2nd half.

Buffalo at Houston -1 (3 units)

Buffalo's offense gains 241 yards per game ( 2nd worst in the NFL)
Buffalo's offense converts 28% of 3rd downs ( 2nd worst in the NFL)
Buffalo gets 14.2 first downs per game ( 2nd worst in the NFL)
Buffalo has 1255 passing yards ( 2nd worst in the NFL)( there are numerous teams with nearly twice the yards)
Buffalo has lost 243 yards by sack ( 2nd worst in the NFL)

Buffalo's rushing stats aren't bad ( middle to bottom of the pack), but that was with Willis Mcghee and Anthony Thomas against the colts piss poor defense. Without Mcghee, Buffalo will not only have a bad quarterback, but now an average runningback with him. Make no mistake, Mcghee is a good player on a bad team. Last week they used Average Anthony against the colts and were fine because it was the colts. It's not like Houston has some stud defense, but they are better than the colts. Houston's stats should actually be skewed down a little bit because they have played a tough schedule thus far.

Buffalo's defense is ranked a little higher than Houston's ( nothing signifigant), but Houston's achilles heel is that they are the worst in the league on giving up 3rd downs. They allow opponents to convert at almost 50%, but remember Buffalo has the 2nd worst offense in the league next to Oakland. JP Losman is NOT a starting quarterback in the NFL as he is probably the worst starter in the league. JP passed for a weak 83 yards last week against the colts ( with 1 fumble) and he completed 8 passes for 102 yards against the packers 2 weeks ago. 185 yards isn't even good for 1 game, nevermind two! Houston's defense isn't good, but the fact that Buffalo doesn't have much on offense seems to negate that. Some of the young players for Houston are really starting to find their way. Mario Williams is starting to show some flair, and Demeco Ryans is a future probowler at MLB. I'm really not scared of that terrible QB in Buffalo, and Average Anthony at RB.

Houston comes back home after 3 consecutive road games. The Texans are a team that has struggled their entire existance, and I believe people are giving up on them. In case you missed it, they actually aren't playing that bad. They just went into Jacksonville and beat the Jags, they were a very live 13 point underdog against the New York Giants, they lost a heart breaker to Vince Young, and they beat Jacksonville by 20. Before that they got blown out in Dallas, after beating Miami. 3-3 in their last 6 games, with losses @ Dallas, @ Tennesse and @ New York isn't bad at all. Buffalo is a very beatable team and I think the texans win in Houston. Buffalo has only won 1 of their last 5 games, and they have only won 1 road game this year.

Right now basically half the people are on Buffalo, and half are on Houston. I don't think you have to worry about shady officiating in a game between two teams nobody wants to watch. Let's face it, nobody will be watching this game tommorow. There probably won't be much action on this game in Las Vegas either, people would rather bet on the big TV games. I love how the money is pretty much 50/50 on this game. Houston should probably be favored by 3, but Buffalo seems to be getting a couple of respect points for almost beating the colts. It seems that this year the colts have played down to some weaker competition, but brought their A game against the better teams. I'd probably even take Houston -3, but those 2 respect points really help out.

There was a lot of turnover for head coaches this year, and I liked Gary Kubiak. Right now Sean Peyton has performed the best this year, but I think when all the smoke clears it might be Kubiak that is the best coach in his class. Kubiak is one of the better offensive minds in football. Everybody pointed at a weak offensive line, but one of the first things Kubiak told David Carr was that he held onto the ball too long ( which is true). Sacks aren't just a function of bad O-Line play, but bad pocket presence as well. I like the way they run their offense, and I like the way his GM was committed to building that defense. The Texans have the worst defense in the league, and a probowl defensive end is worth more than a probowl runningback. It wasn't a popular move to take Mario Williams, but if Williams turns into what they think he will be, he will be more valueable than Bush. Fans love watching offenses, but runningback is probably the most plentiful position in the league. A good pass rushing defensive end is a super valueable commodity. I can actually envision Kubiak making this Houston team sort of look like his Denver team in a few years.

I'm sick and tired of this one trick pony called Michael Vick. ESPN is constantly promoting this guy to be the poster child of the NFL. Many fans are out of touch with reality when they argue his worth, Vick is not even an average quarterback in the NFL. A few weeks ago Vick himself said that his passing skills were right up there with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady! Hello, I know your cocky and all but I think all of that medication is getting to your head RON MEXICO. After over half a season of play, he has the 14th highst QB ranking in his conference of 16 teams. The statistical QB rating formula has Vick ranked right at the bottom with rookie 6th round draft pick Bruce Gradkowski, benched Drew Bledsoe, and Rookie Matt Leinart.

The Michael Vick legend can really be attibuted to a few things. When he was in college, he had a remarkable National championship game against Florida State. It was a legandary kind of game that comes around only a couple times each decade ( Vince Young vs USC). After he came into the NFL, he entered these popular John Madden football games as the ultimate weapon for video game players. In the game he was one of the fastest players, with one of the strongest arms, with the real decisions not up to Michael but the controller. The final leg that built the Vick legand was the playoff win in Green Bay. He beat the undefeatable Brett Favre in Green Bay on National TV. He didn't REALLY beat the packers that night, but the when the packers committed four turnovers they beat themselves. Nobody remembered the fumble or Keon Carpenter and his intercepting Favre, they just remembered this young #7 dancing around avoiding the pass rush.

In the years Vick has been in the league he hasn't improved. He was originally traded for draft picks which turned into Ladanian Tomlinson and Drew Brees. Right now LT is the best running back in the league and nothing short of a touchdown machine. Drew Brees started out his career slow, but progressed and turned around both the Chargers and now the Saints. Drew Brees is the anti-Michael Vick.

One of the major arguments from Vick supporters is that " He has no receivers, or no team". As of a few weeks ago, Atlanta backs and receivers ranked 11th in the NFC with 6 dropped passes. Philly was leading the league with 19 drops and Green Bay followed with 15, and New Orleans with 11. Michael Vick is now playing with a probowl running back, a probowl tight end, and two 1st round picks at receiver. Drew Brees had 2 key drops in his game last week, but I didn't see him calling his receivers out. After the Saints receivers dropped passes, Brees just went back to work and threw more passes to them. One of the problems for Falcons receiver is that they might only see a few passes a game, and the ones they get are not every accurate.

Not only do Vick fans argue that he has no talented receivers, but Vick has personally sold out his own teammates raising the issue of his receivers and play calling. I thought a Quarterback was supposed to be a leader that made his teammates better, not some guy that threw them under the bus after failure.

Vick uses his teammates as an excuse for poor play, and he even uses his race as an excuse. In an interview with Cris Carter, Vick said the he " wasn't getting the coaching he needed because he was a black QB". When Vick first entered into the NFL he told Sports Illustrated that his mission was to " prove that blacks can play quarterback". He just seems to pound his chest when he performs well, and to hide behind an army of excuses when he fails. After a few poor weeks of play, Vick recently said that Dan Reeves offense suited his skills better, and that he doesn't like playing in the shotgun formation. He also said that he hasn't watched film of himself until a few weeks ago. Now is this a leader, or a guy who throws everybody under the bus when he fails?

Michael hasn't progressed in his entire career. He is the same player today, as he was when he entered the league. I'd attribute a lot of his lack of progression to his character and being lazy. A few weeks ago against Arizona, Vick threw an interception at the goal line to Adrian Wilson. Vick is supposed to be one of the fastest players in the league, and rather than chase down the 230 pound defensive back, Michael took about 5 hard steps and then quit running. While Michael Vick Quit running, the hard working and under sized Warrick Dunn ran down the running back 80 yards to ALMOST make the play. Now who shows leadership? A Quarterback who quit out of frustration or a running back with heart who ran 80 yards from the other side of the field to almost make the play? Vick prides himself on being one of the fastest players in the league, but he just quit. If he is going to quit so easily on game day, what happens when the cameras aren't looking? I just don't see him as the kind of guy putting forth the extra effort. He was born with speed and agility, but I don't think anybody is born an NFL ready quarterback.

In last week’s game against the Steelers, Saints Quarterback Drew Brees was at the opponent’s goal line on a play action rollout play. The fake handoff fooled the defense and Brees could have easily ran the ball into the end zone for the score. Instead of running the ball into the end zone, Brees threw the pass to his receiver Terrance Copper. Michael Vick would have NEVER thrown that pass. Have you ever noticed after Vick scores, he always seems to find the camera and celebrate? Other teammates run to celebrate with him, but he runs away from teammates, and runs to the cameras. He's the player that pounds his chest after a score, but blames his teammates after a loss.

A quarterback has 5 backs and receivers at his disposal strategically placed around the field. It is in a Quarterbacks best interest to use his backs and receivers to stretch out the defense and force them to honor the whole field. It's a lot harder to cover 5 receivers, than it is to cover a QB and a tight end that he locks on to. I know people talk about his feet being the ultimate weapon, but Peyton Mannings arm ( and brain) are a lot more dangerous than Vicks feet. Peyton can throw a football in any direction 50 yards instantly, Vick is only as fast as his legs will take him. Vick was supposed to be an undefendable passer because defenses were supposed to "waste a spy" on him, leaving others open. Vick usually hovers around a 50% completion percentage which fails that argument.

Atlanta dumbed down their offense this season for #7 . When Gregg Knapp came to Atlanta, the team started running those long stretch run plays that open up the bootlegs. They run other misdirection plays and even the option keepers out of the shotgun. Many of their pass plays are rollouts based off those stretch run plays where Vick will have one read. Their playbook more resembles a Wing T playbook you would see in highschool, or a college football offense with option keepers. Vick is a terrible drop back passer. He may be a mobile quarterback, but he has horrible pocket presence. He still LOOKS at the defensive end pass rushers, and doesn't have a very good clock in his head as to when to throw the ball. The announcer on the game a few weeks ago pointed out that people criticize his line, but they were giving him time ( Vick just held onto the ball too long).

Did you catch that start last year by Matt Schaub? He threw for just under 300 yards ( what Michael can't seem to do). It's kind of funny how Matt Schaub didn't have " no receivers" in his start, but Michael has no receivers. You know how when a backup quaterback goes to the sidelines they usually converse coverages with the starter? Schaubb was just jogging to the sidelines that game and talking with coaches. Vick was standing near them all quietly. I honestly don't think he understands all those coverages, if he did, he certainly didn't offer any help or opinion. I'd believe that Vick doesn't understand coverages because he's always on the bench by himself inbetween series. He just sits on the bench catching his breath with this blank stare on his face. This year, sometimes I see Gregg Knapp on the sidelines next to him shoving screen shots into his face trying to coach him. It's a different picture than a Peyton Manning. You can always find Manning or Brees on the sidelines looking at ariel overhead shots trying to figure out what happened on the last series. There is so much going on every NFL play, that you can't possibly dissect it all live. Manning and many of the good quarterbacks are trying to figure out what happened, so they can prepare for next time. Vick just sits on the sidelines with his head inbetween his legs waiting for his next turn.

ESPN doesn't even show a lot of the Vick lowlights. They stopped showing many of his interceptions and fumbles. ESPN loves to show those 25 yard runs for a first downs, but they don't like showing that fumble that cost his team points. Michael Vick is a great runner and great for highlights and selling jerseys, but NOT a great quarterback.

Picks

6 point teaser... Baltimore -1/ Philly -1 ( 5 Units)
( I'd rather have 6 points each with a higher payout, than get 7 points bringing it to a pick'em)

San Diego at Cincy Over 48 ( 1 unit)
The Chargers have played OVER in their last 4 contests, and the Bengals have in their last 2. Look for LT to cave up Marvin Lewis's defense, and look for Carson and his Hood Orniment ( chad Johnson) to put up points as well in front of the home crowd.

The famous Sucker bet...
Steelers -5 ( 2 units)
We have an overrated 6-2 team going to play a 2-6 team that everybody gave up on. How in the hell is the 2-6 team nearly 6 point favorites over the first place saints?

The Steelers match up very well with the Saints in Pittsburgh. The Saints high octane offense will be slowed on that grass in Pittsburgh facing a stout defense. The Steelers are very tough on road quarterbacks in Pittsburgh opposing QB ratings were floating in the 60's last year. The Steelers power run game also matches up well against the saints and their weak Linebacking core. The steelers are a classy organization, with classy ownership, a classy coach, and classy players. Although their season is all but done, they will play hard for the home fans and should win by double digits...

I'm off to get ready to go out and cause trouble in Georgetown tonight and I should have more to come later ( either drunk late night picks or early sunday morning picks). I've had a number of E-mails regarding a canadian website that I choose not to post at. I'd appreciate if these picks are not later re-posted over there ( especially the sucker bet) because I couldn't think less of that site. For those of you posters there, I'd like to tell you that one of their mods keeps sending me harassing E-mails. I think their scared that all there best posters are leaving, and their sending me harassing emails.

I've been hearing a lot about runningbacks in the NFL and their value. Last year Shaun Alexander won MVP and Edge James and Tiki Barber probably could have as well. We've seen LT dominate in the past, and Marshall Faulk a few years ago in St. Louis. The NFL MVP award is usually won by a Quarterback or runningback, but we have come to the point where runningbacks are overvalued right now.

Bill Bellicheck's Patriots have had a slew of injuries pile up in the past few years. The Pats have had so many injuries that they have had to pick up numorous guys off the street and practice squads, and even convert Troy Brown to defensive back. Bill Bellicheck however said that runningback is the easiest position to just fill somebody in. There are only so many gaps to run through. The biggest concern with throwing in a new back is the pass protection, but the QB can probably help him out. It would be much more difficult to insert a new Wide Receiver, tight end, or offensive guard into a lineup with all the reads that player has to make.

There are so many big, strong, fast guys who are able to carry the rock, that there is an excess of supplyof backs in the league. Many teams have two quality backs, and teams are reluctant to spend the big money on a runningback. The Steelers picked up undrafted free agent Willie Parker and turned him into a quality starting back. The Denver Broncos just plug people in and cash out 1,000 yard backs. S. Gato comes from a D2 school to rush for over 100 yards in a game. Teams don't need to risk a high draft pick on a runningback.

Another reason why I would be reluctant to spend the money on a back is that they are also very injury prone. Clinton Portis had around 400 carries/ touches last year and he's spent this whole year gimpy. Shaun Alexander was the LEADER in touches, and he's also been hurt. The casual fan doesn't understand the beating that these guys take. Twenty five carries in a game, means a back will be getting pounded to the ground by 11 of the biggest, strongest, and fastest men in the world 25 times. Portis and Alexander getting 400 carries over 16 grueling weeks ( plus playoffs) is very hard on a body. Fans "expect" these marquee players to duplicate these performances year after year, but it' s tough for a runningback to even last 5 years in the league.

The average fan also looks at Speed as the deciding factor on a runningback or receiver. Vision is much overlooked from a back, the decision to cut back could lead to a field full of open grass. The defenses are so fast today, that it's almost impossible to have a huge speed or agility advantage, that I believe in the future we will see more big backs in the NFL in the mold of Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Travis Henrey, Bettis. These big backs can weigh nearly 250 pounds and can run a 4.5 40 yard dash.

It would be more beneficial to have a big back to get hit on a 2 yard carry and have his momentum turn it into a 4 yard carry on a regular basis ( and keep drives alive, and manageable down and distances) as opposed to a speedy Willie Parker type back maybe turning a 20 yard run into a 40 yard run once per game. The big back will wear down a defense and move the chains the whole game, while the speed back might break a giant run once per game. A lot of time those speedy backs outrun their blockers and waste those pulling guards, while those big backs can sometimes hit the hole at a better pace and then start bowling down defenders. True fans love to watch smash mouth football, as it brings energy to the offensive line, and demoralises opponents.

Back to the marquee backs. Before this year started, people were talking about how Edge was the key to the Colts. That taking him off that team turns that offense mediocre. Last time I checked, Peyton Manning was the miestro/ point guard of that offense that puts his skilled position players in position to make plays. When edge was hurt a few years ago, Dominic Rhodes was I believe a 1200 yard rusher. Now Edge is a better player than Dominic Rhodes, but how much is that difference worth? If you assume that Rhodes is "average", how much is the better player James worth? If edge gets 20% more yards than an average ghost player, how valueable does that make him? What I am getting at, is don't judge Edge by the 1500 yards he rushes for, judge him by the 300 yard excess he rushed for instead of an average player. If you take James off the colts, they still have a very good offense... If you took Manning off the colts, I know for sure no average player would pass for 3500+ yards or 48 touchdown passes. Manning is standard deviations better than the "average" quarterback. In fact, the average quarterback isn't even very good. There aren't many quarterbacks who go out there every week and put up consistant performances.

I don't know where all this runningback talk comes from, but there are tons of backs who could run in the Seattle, KC, Pittsburgh, Cincy or Indy offenses. The backups won't match the starters, but the runningback isn't as valueable of a chess piece as you might think in the game of football.

If anybody thinks the Giants and Pats have a chance at winning the superbowl, NOW is the time to buy before it could get ugly. The Giants are going to beat Houston today and go to 6-2 for the year and be in 2nd place in the NFC. The team in first place is the Chicago bears and they will beat the Fins today to start out the first half of their season undefeated at 8-0.

Next week is the NFC showdown with huge implications. The Giants may have two losses ( @ Seattle and Indy). Seattle had a 2 year home winning streak in place ( and the giants started out slow), and Indy won a close one the Giants could have won ( bad clock management at the end and a run off). The Giants have maybe the hardest schedule I have ever seen and they are in still in legitamate position to win the NFC. The Bears on the other hand have probably the easiest schedule in the league. Now only is the NFC North weak, but their out of conference games are weak as well. We all know the bears have a solid defense, but Grossman has been spotty on the road. If it weren't for the defense and special teams, Grossman would have been the goat in the Arizona game with all of his turnovers. There is a giant Rex Grossman bandwagon, but I am not sold on him in the road, or especially on the road in the playoffs.

The Bears will have their first challenge in a month when they go to NY in two weeks. The Giants have a legit shot to give them the Bears their first loss and steal the NFC crown. The Giants have only lost 2 games in New York in two years, and locking up homefield would be huge. We have the classic battle of a team with an easy schedule in an easy division, against the Giants and their battle tested path. If the Bears had the Giants schedule, I am not so sure they would even be 6-2 ( but probably around 5-3, 6-2). So if you think the Giants are going to go out on top for TIKI ( or even make it there), it would be the last good chance to bet on the Giants superbowl futures...

I think the Same argument goes for the Patriots. If they beat Indy tonight ( and they will), they are now the clear cut AFC favorite. Both teams have weaker divisions and should finish 1st and 2nd in the AFC. If the Pats win tonight ( and I think they will), they will force Peyton to make ANOTHER trip to foxborro in the playoffs.

I actually think the Giants and Pats have a damn good chance of meeting in Miami this year and this might be the last good time to bet it.

I played a majority of my winnings on the Pats +603 to win the whole damn thing.

Sucker bet = Washington +3 ( custers last stand and washingtons last chance to have this season NOT be a 100% total failure)

ATS Picks

Atlanta -5 @ Detroit
- Detroit is NOT a good football team
Cincy @ Baltimore -3
- Good matchup for Bal, they can run on cincy and have a good D
Dallas @ Washington +3
- Romo to win his first 2 starts on the road? Washington starting D together for first time.
Minnesota @ San Fran +4
- The 49ers are terrible on the road, but decent at home.
Green Bay +3.5 @ Buffalo
- JP Losman might be the worst QB in the NFL and shouldn't be favored against anybody.
Houston @ Giants-13
- Giants should cruise on offense, and their pass rush should break down Carr.
Kansas City @ St. Louis -2.5
- The Rams should win this high scoring game.
Miami @ Chicago -13.5
- Fish out of water have trouble on O, nevermind against a top notch D.
New Orleans -1 @ Tampa
- The saints should bounce back and march on in this magical season.
Tennesse @ Jacksonville -9.5
- Still not sold on Vince Young as a passer at all.
Cleveland +12.5 @ San Diego
- Everybody is on SD and I have a weird feeling the Browns cover.
Denver @ Pitt -3
- Pittsburgh is a different beast at home but why is a 2-5 team favored by 3 over a 5-2 team???
Indy @ New England -3
- Rock paper scissors... Brady, Bellicheck and Defense beat Manning, Dungy and no defense
Oakland @ Seattle -7
Seattle is at home.. where they win ( except last week) and Oakland is still one of the worst in football.

Plays:
Washington +3 ( 1.5 units)
St. Louis -2.5 ( 1 unit)
Kc/ Rams Over 48 ( 1 unit)

I am going to bet New England later as well.