Saturday, November 18, 2006

Bills @ Texans -1

Buffalo at Houston -1 (3 units)

Buffalo's offense gains 241 yards per game ( 2nd worst in the NFL)
Buffalo's offense converts 28% of 3rd downs ( 2nd worst in the NFL)
Buffalo gets 14.2 first downs per game ( 2nd worst in the NFL)
Buffalo has 1255 passing yards ( 2nd worst in the NFL)( there are numerous teams with nearly twice the yards)
Buffalo has lost 243 yards by sack ( 2nd worst in the NFL)

Buffalo's rushing stats aren't bad ( middle to bottom of the pack), but that was with Willis Mcghee and Anthony Thomas against the colts piss poor defense. Without Mcghee, Buffalo will not only have a bad quarterback, but now an average runningback with him. Make no mistake, Mcghee is a good player on a bad team. Last week they used Average Anthony against the colts and were fine because it was the colts. It's not like Houston has some stud defense, but they are better than the colts. Houston's stats should actually be skewed down a little bit because they have played a tough schedule thus far.

Buffalo's defense is ranked a little higher than Houston's ( nothing signifigant), but Houston's achilles heel is that they are the worst in the league on giving up 3rd downs. They allow opponents to convert at almost 50%, but remember Buffalo has the 2nd worst offense in the league next to Oakland. JP Losman is NOT a starting quarterback in the NFL as he is probably the worst starter in the league. JP passed for a weak 83 yards last week against the colts ( with 1 fumble) and he completed 8 passes for 102 yards against the packers 2 weeks ago. 185 yards isn't even good for 1 game, nevermind two! Houston's defense isn't good, but the fact that Buffalo doesn't have much on offense seems to negate that. Some of the young players for Houston are really starting to find their way. Mario Williams is starting to show some flair, and Demeco Ryans is a future probowler at MLB. I'm really not scared of that terrible QB in Buffalo, and Average Anthony at RB.

Houston comes back home after 3 consecutive road games. The Texans are a team that has struggled their entire existance, and I believe people are giving up on them. In case you missed it, they actually aren't playing that bad. They just went into Jacksonville and beat the Jags, they were a very live 13 point underdog against the New York Giants, they lost a heart breaker to Vince Young, and they beat Jacksonville by 20. Before that they got blown out in Dallas, after beating Miami. 3-3 in their last 6 games, with losses @ Dallas, @ Tennesse and @ New York isn't bad at all. Buffalo is a very beatable team and I think the texans win in Houston. Buffalo has only won 1 of their last 5 games, and they have only won 1 road game this year.

Right now basically half the people are on Buffalo, and half are on Houston. I don't think you have to worry about shady officiating in a game between two teams nobody wants to watch. Let's face it, nobody will be watching this game tommorow. There probably won't be much action on this game in Las Vegas either, people would rather bet on the big TV games. I love how the money is pretty much 50/50 on this game. Houston should probably be favored by 3, but Buffalo seems to be getting a couple of respect points for almost beating the colts. It seems that this year the colts have played down to some weaker competition, but brought their A game against the better teams. I'd probably even take Houston -3, but those 2 respect points really help out.

There was a lot of turnover for head coaches this year, and I liked Gary Kubiak. Right now Sean Peyton has performed the best this year, but I think when all the smoke clears it might be Kubiak that is the best coach in his class. Kubiak is one of the better offensive minds in football. Everybody pointed at a weak offensive line, but one of the first things Kubiak told David Carr was that he held onto the ball too long ( which is true). Sacks aren't just a function of bad O-Line play, but bad pocket presence as well. I like the way they run their offense, and I like the way his GM was committed to building that defense. The Texans have the worst defense in the league, and a probowl defensive end is worth more than a probowl runningback. It wasn't a popular move to take Mario Williams, but if Williams turns into what they think he will be, he will be more valueable than Bush. Fans love watching offenses, but runningback is probably the most plentiful position in the league. A good pass rushing defensive end is a super valueable commodity. I can actually envision Kubiak making this Houston team sort of look like his Denver team in a few years.

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