Sunday, December 28, 2008

Week 17

Week 17 Open picks
Picks from preseason
Browns Under 8 wins +100, 2 units to win 2 units WIN
Ravens Under 6 wins +100, 2 units to win 2 units LOSS
Colts OVER 11 wins +140, 2 units to win 2.8 units
Colts to win Super Bowl +900, 2.5 units to win 22.5
Week 16 addition I had to jump on
Peyton Manning to win MVP +350, 2.5 units to win 8.75

Week 17
Buffalo +6 ( 2 units)
Miami +3 ( 2 units)
Houston -2.5 ( 2 units)
NY Giants 1st half +3.5 ( 2 unit)
Steelers 1st half -7 ( 1 unit)

Week 16 recap
Colts 2nd half -6.5 ( 3 units) WIN
Dallas -5 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Pittsburgh -1 ( 1 unit) LOSS
NY Giants -3 ( 5 units) WIN
2-2, PLUS 6 UNITS !!!

I went back and watched a taped game I had earlier in the year,
Bills @ Patriots -3.5
Pats won 20-10.
Special Teams
Bills special teams were very good. NE had to work on full fields, Leodis McCelvin almost ran two kicks back. One was about 60 yards, the other was about 40 yards. Even thought the Bills offense isn't as good, they were already nearly in scoring range on both returns. The Bills have a few guys that can return ( Roscoe Parrish as well).
Red zone scoring
The Pats don't run that ball that well, and had trouble throwing in the redzone. They actually scored their first TD on a Matt Cassell DRAW, and they scored their 4th Q TD on an unusual defensive holding call by Marcus Stroud. All of the other Pats points were field goals. Red zone If you are laying 7 points to a divisonal rival on the road, you NEED to convert your red zone opportunites into TD's, and I saw the Pats luck out twice.
Trent Edwards had 2 picks
Matt Cassell had 1 fumble
I'd say normally they probably turn the ball over the same so the advantage goes to Buffalo.
Marshawn Lynch might not play, but his backup Fred Jackson played about as well as him. The Pats front 7 is decimated by injuries.I thought the Bills cornerbacks covered the Patriots WR's very well. Even on the passes that they caught, they bad a BILL right there. MOST of the catches were in the middle of the field, right in front of the linebackers. Cover 2, the outsides were covered pretty well by the corners, but Wes Welker running crossing routes vs Bills linebackers was deadly. The Pats eat people alive with those short passes. Matt Cassell was able to be something like 18/23 passing at one point in time because he was killing them with welker. Besides the short stuff, the Bills coverage was suprisingly good.
I initally strongly leaned the Over for this game, because that Patriots front 7 is very injured and I believe the Pats will be able to move the ball, and so will the bills, but I am not sure anymore. I think just taking the Bills at home +7 is a better play.Everybody wants to play the Patriots because they "need to win", but don't you " need to win" all of your games? Odds makers aren't going to give the public anything at this time in the year. Weeks ago the Pats were -3.5 at home, but now they are -7 on the road? I understand M. Lynch is injured, but if anything, the Pats have more injuries, and are giving " extra" points on the road. You may say that the Pats, " have" to win, but wouldn't the Bills love to knock the "cheaters' right out of the playoffs? I'll bet you money that some team that " needs to win" won't even win, nevermind cover the pointspread.You could argue Buffalo " quit on the season", but then why did they just go into Denver and beat a team that had all the motivation in the world to win?7 points is way too many for an injured Pats/front 7 on a divisonal road game. The Bills have the special teams edge, and will try and win the game nevermind cover the spread.So glad I watched this game. Buffalo looks like a solid play.
Strong winds bode well for Buffalo vs an injured NE front 7. The Bills have the largest offensive line in the NFL, and they won't be as effected with their short passes and with them trying to establish the run vs Patriots linebackers picked up off the street and out of retirement. The Pats might not be AS effected as you might think, they will attack the Bills inside the hash marks on short passes to welker, but with 50 mph winds, even that is more difficult.

Miami is the "it" team this year. I haven't had the best luck betting on them, I took them week 1 vs the Jets, I took them against the Pats about a month ago and lost, but as the Jets are limping into their season finale, the Fins have already had a successful year. This game is a grudge match for Pennington/Parcells. The Jets are 1-3 in their final four games, they should be 0-4 if not for a dumb mobile JP. Losman running and fumble within the final 2 minutes. It's not like the Jets lost to anybody good anyway, Denver, San Fran and Seattle? Gimme the Dog and the Points. Miami has won 8 out of their final 9 and the 3 points are insurance.

Better team here. People will swear the Bears ' need to win", but the reason they "need to win" is because they aren't that great in the first place. Winning overtime games you should have lost will come back to haunt you eventually. People can talk about the Bears " courage" and "fight", but they should be beating those teams anyway. Houston beat a strong Titans team at home not too long ago, and Kubiak DOES have motivation to finish 8-8 in a strong AFC South.

NY Giants 1st half
Coughlin will probably sit his guys, but will it be after the 1st Q or halftime? I am guessing he sits them after halftime and getting 3.5 points with the NFC's best team is a good bet.

Steelers 1st half
The Steelers are clearly the better team than the turds. People are shying away from this game because the Steelers have no incentive to blow them out. Byron Leftwhich will certainly see time, but will Tomlin pull Big Ben after the 1st Q or 2nd Q? In my opinion, the Browns haven't scored a TD on offense in a month, and as long as the Steelers jump out to a lead, they can easily cover 1 possession.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Week 16

I won 3 units on the Colts 2nd half -6.5 Thursday ( what an easy play), and put 2.5 of the units on Peyton Manning to win MVP +350. I like him to win over Adrian Peterson, Kurt Warner or Tony Romo, the others oddsmakers have him competing with. Funny thing is that I looked at the odds today and they were +275. I posted on a site after the Colts game, and maybe some others pounded it too. I can't believe the book left those odds up after the game.

Open Bets
- Colts to win it all ( from before the season +900 maybe)
- Cleveland Browns season win total Under ( win)
- Baltimore Ravens season win total Under ( loss)
- Colts season win total Over 11 ( push right now, a win next week wins)
Peyton Manning to win MVP +350

Season win totals can be tricky, so I placed those 3 all with plus juice money. I want to say the Colts one was +120 or +140 and the other two are a wash right now. I think the Colts one was for more money also if I am not mistaken.

I am in NJ now, so posting can be difficult. I took Dallas -5 last night for a 1 unit loss.
Pittsburgh -1 ( 1 unit)
NY Giants -3 ( 5 units)

Here is for keeping it simple. I may go to the bars in Hoboken to watch the Giants game with some true fans. One of those sports bars was pretty booming last time I was there and they had one of the biggest TV's I have ever seen in my life. GL

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Week 16

2nd half

Colts -6.5 ( -120) 3 units.
Colts will receive the ball in the start of the second half, and win, if not lose by 3 points. The refs were favoring them, and they will win.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

2nd halfs

The thing that is going to piss me off to no end, is I don't see my crazy teaser in my pending bets. If that wins, I am going to fly to costa rica and start going ape shit. I hope it is just their primitive IT shit.


Tampa +2 ( +110) .5 units
- Not even watching this game, but the Bucs have held Turner in check, Matt Ryan has 2 picks, and Griese is doing alright thus far.
- Washington UNDER 19.5 ( 1 unit)
- Washington -4 ( 1 unit)
- Houston Texans +3 ( .5 units)

Sundays card

Week 15
Teaser: Pats -.5/Panthers + Denver Over 41 ( 2.5 units)
Redskins/Bengals under 37 ( 2 units)
Arizona Cardinals -3 ( 1.5 units)
Teaser: Washington -1, Miami -.5 ( 1.5 units)
Houston +3.5 ( 1 unit)

Crazy Teaser
ADD: Crazy Teaser:
1pmMiami Dolphins 0.5 ( Just winning should be easy)
Seattle/ST Louis under 49.5 ( two crappy teams)
Texans +10.5 ( a live home dog, getting DD)
Patriots -0.5 ( Pats should beat the Raiders in their sleep)
Den/Carolina Over 41 ( Both teams should score over 20)
Arizona +4 ( Zona 5-1 @ home, Minny has T-Jack)night
Giants +10 ( have they been underdogs at all this year?)
Pays 8 to 1
Risk .5 units to win 4

May add ravens around 3pm or so if things are looking good and I get them less than -2.5.

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Week 15 early look cont...

Redskins @ Cincy
Another one of those home dogs here. Last week I loved the Washington under at baltimore. I had that game circled on my card and I pounded it like your little sister. This week I wanted to get washington in another under situation vs the Bengals. The line opened at 36. The bookies aren't going to make it that easy this time.The Bengals average 11.8 PPG and Washington averages 16.8 Let's take a look at the Redskins point totals...
@ Bal 10
@ Sea 20
Dal 10
Pit 6
@ Det 25 ( 7 on a punt return TD)
Cle 14
STL 17
@ Phi 23
@ Dal 26
Ari 24
NO 29
( that sucks)

@ Indy 3
Bal 3
@ Pitt 10
Phi 13 ( tie game, I believe they had 17 possessions)
Jax 21
@ Hou 6
Pitt 10
@ Jets 14
@ Dal 22
Cle 12
@ Giants 23
Tenn 7
@ Bal 10
The Bengals are dead last in offensive scoring and Washington is the 4th worst in scoring. Cincy has an excuse because they lost their top 5 QB Carson Palmer and are playing a Harvard geek, but Washington has all of those Danny Snyder Free Agents/Draft picks in play with their West Coast offense coach, it's just they have a complete Moron Jason Campbell running the plays.

Campbell might not throw a lot of INT's, but the guy has the 4the 4th lowest scoring offense in the league with the # 3 rusher, A pro bowl Tight end, A Pro Bowl WR, 3 second round draft pick pass catchers, the highest paid Slot WR, a Pro Bowl Left tackle, a coach that holds your hand to go over all the plays? Fans in Washington blame everybody but the big Alabama dope at QB, but HE is your problem. He is Byron Leftwhich part 2, and he will never be more than a game manager. That offense is an average 16th in Yards, but 29th in scoring. It is because the coaching staff is mortally affraid of giving Lional Richie the opportunity to throw the ball downfield and make plays ( and mistakes). Instead, he completes 50% of his passes to a RB or Tight end, and hopes to god they pick up passing yards, instead of throwing the ball downfield like a QB is supposed to.

The Redskins also have problems with their running back from the U. Clinton Portis doesn't like to practice and tried to milk his injuries into no practice last week. He gets into the Ravens game and fumbles early on, and Zorn benched him. His reason was that he didn't practice and "didn't know all the protections". Well, Clinton Portis wasn't too happy about that, just like he lashed out at Brian Mitchell earlier in the year, just like he called in the John Thompson show and bitched about the disfunction of the Redskins organization last year. Portis just loves to throw that dirty laundry out there. The guy is beyond brain dead, and that turmoil on offense could mean a lower score.

Stephan Heyer is supposed to kick out to LT for the injured Chris Samuels. A weaker offensive line should also make it harder for the Redskins to score. The Bengals might not get the sacks, but life should be easier.

Cincy D has the 2nd least sacks in the league 13.
Wash D has the 4th least sacks in the league 19.

This game features 2 of the lowest 5 scoring teams, but the Redskins have a strong defense, and Cincy has a bad defense. I like the Under 36.5 here.

Washington in their last 9 games
0 overs 8 unders 1 push

Wash has 2 overs, 10 unders, 1 push on the year.... Jason Campbell is an over hyped media QB overrated like Byron Leftwhich and Michael Vick were.

First Buy: Wash/Cincy UNDER 37 ( -120) 2 units

So NE is -7.5, Jets -7, Miami -7, San Diego -6, Carolina -7.5, Washington is -6.5. These numbers are all tempting for teaser players, but I highly doubt all of these teams win outright. The books need some of the teams to lose outright to bust up those teasers.If I had to guess right now, I'd guess Denver upsets Carolina, or KC the dog at home pulls the shocker on San Diego. New England is probably my least likely to get upset @ the Raiders, and I'd actually like to tease them with something.

Week 15 thoughts/thinking out loud

Chicago/New Orleans
- New Orleans is 1-5 on the road, I can't get that stat past my mind. That offense averages 28 PPG overall, but only 22 PPG on the road. The Saints could score 51 points on Green Bay at home, but then shit out 7 points vs Carolina on the road.
- Chicago is 4-2 at home with their only losses at TD loss to the Titans, and an OT Loss to the Bucs. The Bears defense has actually performed a little worst statistically at home, but their offense has performed better. I susupect that MOST of that data comes from that outlier 48-41 win vs Minnesota.
- I see some key injuries for the Saints on defense. C. Grant, Mckenzie and Porter hurt, Kaesvaharn is a starter the bum safety is injured but that guy should go back to substitute teaching.
- The Bears are actually pretty healty, with Nathan Vasher as the only real key injury.
Total opened at 46 and got bought down to 44.5
The Saints have gone over 13-4-1 out of their last 18
The Saints have gone over 19-7-1 out of their last 27 vs NFC
Chicago has gone over 19-7 of their last 26 home games
Chicago has gone over 27-11-1 out of their last 39 vs NFC

I would lean Bears and the over right now. This is a rematch of 2 years ago's NFC Championship and the Bears won at home 39-14. Drew Brees had no run game ( Reggie Bush ran for 19 yards). Brees had to do it all by himself, throwing for 354 in a losing effort while Sexy Rexy completed 11/26 passes for 144 yards and "managed the game". This is a classic offense vs defense, and the home field favors the Bears. That Saints offense just isn't as potent on grass and in the cold and wind.

Seattle @ St. Louis
This is the kind of game that only a Seattle fan, St Louis fan, or true degenerate would bet on. There is no reason for anybody to watch a game between a team that lost 6 straight games and a team that lost 7 straight games.

The Hawks actually covered last week with the help of a bullshit Deion Branch out of bounds play but that's cool. I watched the Hawks on Thanksgiving and saw no pass rush on the road in Dallas, but they actually came close to Matt Cassell last week. It looks like the young USC Draft pick Lawrence Jackson was able to apply some pressure. Seattle has one of the shittiest pass defenses in the league, but I think that is more of a function of a weak pass rush than shoddy corners ( Marcus Trufant is still a beast).

The only line I see right now is STL + 3 at the Las Vegas Hilton. I think the books are waiting to see if another mobile QB is going to get the start or Matt Hasselback. If you can't tell, I am not a very big fan of 5'10 "scramblers" playing QB in the NFL. If I wanted to watch that, I'd watch football on Saturdays or Fridays. Sundays are for throwers.

The thing about Seattle, is their offensive line is in shambles. Their starting Center is out ( never underestimate that!), their best Guard is out with injury, and Walter Jones is day to day. The Rams are a crappy football team, but the only area where I do see strong promise is their Defensive line. Chris Long and Leonard Little have speed on the outside, while Glover and Carriker have power inside.I see no reason to bet this game.

You just can't count on two piss poor football teams. Both offenses average under 20 PPG and the defenses give up a compined 56 PPG on average.

Bills @ Jets
Was it me or did the Buffalo Bills start this season 5-1? The team has lost 6 or their last 7 since then to be 6-7.
- Two weeks ago the ESPN Hype machine talked about a Jet/Giants SB, but now the Jets dropped 2 in a row to below average football teams. WHOOPS!The Line opened Jets -6.5, the Line now sits at Jets -7, and Jets -7.5 at Bet ed. I would anticipate the Public liking the Jets in this one, so if you do want to play ( or tease the Jets), I would suggest doing that early in the week.
- The Jets are 3-9 ATS vs a team with a losting record ( playing down to the competition)
- Buffalo has gone Under 6-2-1 vs the AFC East.The Bills "might" get Trent Edwards back to start over that punk Surfer mobile quarterback JP LOSE MAN.

I'd actually lean on the Jets to win this game at home after 2 crappy weeks. It might be good to tease this game now when the line is 7 early in the week before it could get bought up to potentially 9 before kick off.

The Jets average 4.8 Yards per carry running the ball at home for 126.5 yards, while the Bills run defense gives up 4.3 per carry on the road for 123.8 yards. It looks like Thomas Jones should surpass the 100 yard mark with a touch or two. The Ace in the hole stat I have for you, is that Buffalo's Defense only has 7 INT's, so if you are counting on Favre throwing 3 or 4 crappy INT's, you might not get bailed out.

SF @ Miami
- SF has quietly won 3 out of their last 4
- Miami has quietly won 6 of their last 7

It seems like SF backers like to back their new head coach with fire in those bug eyes of his... calling out lazy me first players like Vernon Davis, while Miami backers like playing the "hot suprise team" of 2008.

I have a couple of stats you might like...
Miami leads the NFL in Take away/give away +12
San Fran is dead last in the NFL in Take away/give aways -14

Why?Miami has Chad Pennington playing Martyball at QB. I am not sure if it still holds true, but he has the highest completion percentage of any active QB's. Everybody knows he has a weak little noddle arm, but the guy does well at dinking and dunking you all day and not turning the ball over. I don't know if it is so much that he can't throw the ball deep, but with all those surgeries, the guy only has so much stamina.

On the other side of the ball, we have Mike Martz the mad scientist. The guy lost the Rams/Patriots SB because Bill Bellicheck was running at nickel defense as his BASE defense begging Martz to run the ball with Marshall Faulk. Martz and his ego just had to pass to win instead of run to win, and Bellicheck called his bluff.

This is one of the famous " west coast teams traveling east for a 1pm start". The San Fran turnover machines vs the Miami Dolphins. I am not sure if I am going to play this game, but it wouldnt' shock me to see Miami shit stomp the 49ers due to winning the turnover battle big.

SD is not who we thought they were this year as they have lost 5 of their last 7 games. They have had a heavy dose of bad calls, inconsistant road play, LT hitting a wall, Turner gone, Merriman out, and Norv Turner.

KC has actually won 2 in a row winning @ Oakland and @ Denver. Their last 2 home games they gave up a combined 84 points in losses. When I think of homefield advantage, the Chiefs are one team I think of, so starting out a 3.5 point dog, bought already up to 6 is interesting. The public is sure to bet on SD, and home dogs haven't done well this year. Is now the time to lay some coin on KC? Tyler Thigpen has thrown 14 TDs, 8 INTs and has a respectable 77 QB rating for a young guy coming out of nowhere. Is that enough to take the home dog? They still do have the HERM at head coach.

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetingsThe dog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings KC in december, home underdog KC could be a home dog that cashes, but I'd like to look at other games before taking an unproven QB and the HERM.

Green Bay @ Jax
Watch for this game to be heavily bet on by Green Bay. Jacksonville looked like absolute shit in their MNF game, their defense isn't what it was last year, they had internal conflict, people think they quit on the coach, and their mobile quarterback's true colors have come out.

Aaron Rodgers on the other hand has a 92.1 QB rating, 22 TDs, 11 INTs and he has done a better job than most though ( myself included) filling in for #4.The Pack have lost 3 in a row ( some close ones to Houston and Carolina), while the Jags have lost 6 of 7. In fact, Gren Bay has actually averaged 3 points more than opponents, yet they are 5-8. They have lost a lot of close games ( Titans, Vikings, Carolina, Houston) to decent teams.

Can the pack win on the road? Well they are 2-4, but I see no reason why they can't beat the 1-5 home Jags. This game "could" be a sucker bet, but the Packers are actually a +7 team in the turnover margin. The Packers pass D has been exposed as of late, but Garrard's arm doesn't scare me. The Jags have also lost Matt Jones and Rasheen Mathis for the year.

I lean the Packers here.

The Packers run D has been run over this year to the tune of 141.8 yards per game and the Jags do have MJD and Fred Taylor, but is their O-line capeable of beating anybody? The Jags STILL don't run the ball for over 100 yards on grass. My guess is the reason why this line is "light" and pretty close is because the books figure Jack Del Rio will just hammer away with his 2 running backs against the weak packers D.

If I am the Packers defensive coordinator, I have 8 guys in the box every single down, and I forge David Garrard to beat me throwing passes to Jerry Porter ( 1 catch last week), Dennis Northcut ( 1 catch, 5 yards last week), and an injured Troy Williamson.

Detroit @ Indy
Bail out Detroit? Not happening this week. The lions could go down in NFL history as one of the worst teams to ever put on a uniform. They have an immature child playing QB, a center that flicks off the fans, a horrible defense, and only a few Players to build around ( Calvin Johnson, Ernie Simms, Cliff Avril and Leigh Bodden).

I was fading the Lions earlier this year, and on Thanksgiving when you have idiots saying ( play the Lions on Thanksgiving, they always try harder). The Lions are so bad, and everybody knows it. You aren't going to make money fading a team everybody knows that sucks, you need to fade a team people actually LIKE. The Lions are one of the worst teams in NFL history, but they are 5-8 ATS.

The Colts have won 6 in a row, but before last week, their win margins were 4, 3, 6, 4, 3. You see, most QB's in the NFL take snaps and try and score points. Peyton Manning on the other hand, is asked to have nice long time consuming efficient drives that keep his defense off the field and score points. It is a lot harder to do. The Colts might get Jeff Saturday and some others back, but they might as well let them sit as this is about as close to a bye week as you come.I already have NFL futures on the Colts to win the SB +900 and over 11 games +140 which I bought before this season started.

Titans @ Houston
Houston is the 3 point home dogThe Titans and Bucs have been two of my darling teams this year. The Titans are 11-1 and 10-2 ATS. In fact, I faded them in their ATS loss to Green Bay too.
The Titans are 6-0 on the road
The Titans are 6-0 ATS on the road
Houston is 4-2 at home
Houston is 2-4 ATS at home

Houston racks up 381.5 yards per game on offense,but the Titans give up a stingy 273.8 on defensethe Titans love to run on offense 145.8 & 4.4 per carryHouston can't stop the run on Defense 127.3 & 4.6 per carry.

I actually like both coaches. Fish is clearly one of the best in the league, he isn't going to be tricked in game situations ( like Dungy) and he can game plan and beat teams better than him. Kubiak hasn't gotten a lot of praise yet, but he took over a weak team with a horribe QB ( Carr) and is building them in that Denver image. If he was in a crappy division, his success would be a lot more apparent, but he plays in a divison with Peyton Manning, 1st place Fischer, and Jack Del Rio has done well with the Jags besides this year. While everybody is jumping on the Mangini, Sean Payton, Tomlin bandwagons for young coaches with bright futures, I think Kubiak is underrated considering what he has done and what he has. I mean, he's had a backup QB over 50% of the time the past 2 years and basically has a .500 record. Where would Dungy be without Manning, or Marvin Lewis without Caron Palmer ( jobless), Payton without Brees etc.I do lean the Titans here, I'd want to get them at -3. I think they match up well, but Houston is no push over. I don't see this game as a lock by any means, and Houston is a home dog ( which they should do well), but the Titans are the better all around team. Some weeks I just consider taking every home dog across the board. Last week you'd bet 2-0, and based on how home dogs have done this season, they are due to cash in during the coming weeks.

Monday, December 08, 2008



TEASE: TB +10, Under 47.5 ( 1 unit)

Tampa + Tenn have been my darlings

Why tampa ?
Tampa hasn't been outscored by opponents by 10 points all year.
The Dog is 8-3 in the last 11 in this rivalry
Dog on national TV
Carolina is overrated
Tampa is underrated
Tampa worked them last time
Delhomo more likely to turn the ball over than Garcia

Why the under
Under is 6-2 last 8 tampa MNF games
Tampa is 6-2 Under in their last 8
Carolina is 7-2 in their last 9 vs nfc south
Under is 11-5 in thier last 16 meetings
Carolina is UNDER 10-3 in their last 13 home games

I actually like Tampa +3, and Under 40.5, but I teased it because I like +10 and U 47.5

Sunday, December 07, 2008

week 14 recap

Sunday Card
Patriots -3 ( -190) 3 units PUSH
Patriots -5 ( 1 unit) LOSS 1
Wash/Balt under 18 first half ( 2 units) WIN 2
Wash/Balt under 36 ( 2 units) WIN 2
Eagles + 7.5 ( 1 unit) WIN 1
Giants -4 second half ( 1 unit) LOSS 1
Steelers -3 ( 1 unit) WIN 1
Pats/ Ravens under 41 ( 3 units) WIN 3 units

5-2-1 = Plus 7 units !!!!

If you would believe it or not, I actually put in a Parlay with the Eagles ML, Patriots ML, and Ravens under that paid 13 to 1. 1 unit would have won be 6.5 more but the book " boxed it" so that you couldn't add the Patriots ML to that Parlay. I had a small ML parlay against the Giants last week, and then this this week. I actually changed and took the Giants 2nd half, but should have just rode it, should have just rode Indy/Tenn, but I made 2 big plays and won good today. 7 units is no chump change, I just could have had a real once in a season killer week. Oh well.



NY Giants -4 Second Half ( 1 unit)



Steelers -3 ( 1 unit)

Marion Barber is out and I figure this line is -3.5 at Book Maker, BetCrisis, Legendz, and already juiced -123 at Pinnacle, -120 at BetUS, -125 at Logans, -125 at Bet Jamacia ant -120 at all the Vegas Casinos. I do want a play on the Steelers and I wanted to wait it out until I see the 1PM games, but there is a great chance that this line will move and I won't be able to get it -3 with so little juice. Beted still has the line -110.

I think with Felix Jones and Marion Barber out, there is little chance that Tashard Choice rushes for more than 65 yards against that Steelers D. Pittsburgh has some of their own injuries, but the downgrade from Barber to Choice is there. He had some yards against the Seagulls last week at home, but these Steelers will fight.

Tony Romo will pretty much have to win this game by himself, but he faces a Steelers D that gives up only 166 per game in the air for an average 4.7 per pass! That is sick! Matt Cassell goes from a 400 yard passing day and 48 points, to people calling him overrated and a weak 10 point game AT HOME. Romo is up against the best defense in the NFL, and won't have a run game.

Romo still probably isn't 100%, and Dallas isn't the best road team. Even with Romo earlier in the year they lost @ Arizona. The Steelers have the better record, and have had a much tougher schedule.

Saturday, December 06, 2008

Week 14

Sunday Card
Patriots -3 ( -190) 3 units
Patriots -5 ( 1 unit)
Wash/Balt under 18 first half ( 2 units)
Wash/Balt under 36 ( 2 units)
Eagles + 7.5 ( 1 unit)

TEASER: Patriots + Ravens/Redskins Under 42 ( 3 units)

My card is very light for the 1pm games. I would love to add t
Titans/Cleveland under
Saints over or anything else after a weak 1st half of play. I will be watching the Giants/Eagles game, but I will be scouting it out for good second half plays. I do have the Patriots big at 4PM I will probably be adding the Steelers -3 at 4pm as well and watch that big game and possible SB match up.

The Patriots write up is 2 journal entries before this one, I got the line early, and thought the line would move to -6, and right now at Beted the line is -7.5, so buying it early really paid off. Seattle's top 2 offensive lineman are also questionable and their QB isn't even 100% as it is. Their line was so terrible vs Dallas, and now Walter Jones and Wahle are banged up and might not play. The Patriots aging pass defense might not get exposed, while they certainly will have a shot at exploiting Seattle. There is a lot more money on the Patriots, but the bookies have moved the line accordingly ( like they should have), which tells me they know the Patriots should bounce back.

These defenses give up an average of 34 points per game, and neither offense here scares me. In fact, Portis and Willis are both dinged up. Rice and Betts aren't bad, but neither have the big play ability and neither team should be able to run the ball much anyway. Here you have two game managers against solid defenses.

Take a loot at Washington's recent offensive point totals.
7 points vs the Giants on road
20 vs Seattle on road
10 vs Dallas at home
6 at home vs Pitt
25 vs Detroit
14 vs Cleveland
17 at home vs the Rams

The most points they ever scored in the past half season is 25 vs Detroit. In all honesty, that might be one of the more unimpressive outputs. 25 vs Detroit and 17 points vs the Rams is not very good considering they are two of the worst defenses in the league. Forget the 7 and 6 point outputs vs good defenses, consider that they can't impress you against the Scrubs, and even 7 of those points vs the Lions were on a Punt Return.

I think it is pretty safe to say the Redskins won't be scoring a lot this week. Baltimore is on the same caliber as the defenses that held the Redskins to 14 or less points. The biggest worry is Baltimore scoring more than their fair share.

In fact, the Ravens are a defensive team, but quietly 8-3-1 on overs. I think piling up the points on Cincinatti, Houston or some of the other teams in blow out wins is a lot easier than vs Washington this week. Both defenses give up 90 or less rushing yards per game, and 300 total offensive yards.Another factor is that we could see snow and very cold temperatures here in Washington. I'd expect similar in Baltimore, and especially for a night game.

Philly's last few games vs the Giants...
5 point loss earlier this year @ NY
3 point loss last year @ Philly
13 point loss last year @ NY
3 point win @ Philly 2 years ago ( playoffs)
14 point win @ NY 2 years ago
6 point loss @ Philly 2 years ago ( Over time)
3 point loss @ Philly 3 years ago ( OT)

That is 7 games right there, and 5 of them were within that 7.5 point margin and a couple of them Philly won outright. In reality, Plax did play a major part in those games, I can remember that deep Ball that Plax caught to win the OT game in 2006.

The Giants are 10-2 ATS, the Eagles are 7-5 ATS and the last few weeks people said that they would take the Giants at any line, and some people said they would never bet Philly ever again.

Philly had their backs against the wall last week ( and crushed Arizona), and they pretty much have their playoff hopes on the line this week. I am a little bit biased in Giants games ( and wouldn't care if the Giants won 49-0 as it would easily be worth a 1 unit loss), but I felt the Giants are NOT going to go 15-1, and a loss to the Eagles here in upsetting fashion is very possible.... even before you take the TD and hook.

Some of the Giants beef on their lines are dinged as questionable: Center Shaun O'Hara and run stopper Fred Robbins. People are talking about Asante Samuel and Bryan Westrbook, but make no mistake to the value of the Giants center and run stopper.

Thursday, December 04, 2008

Thursday night

Week 14

Chargers/Raiders UNER 21 1st half ( 1 unit)


Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Week 14, first pick

Week 14

I like the Pats over Seattle.

Patriots -3 ( -190) 3 units to win a little over 1.5
Patriots -5 1 unit

I think by kickoff, the line will be Patriots -6, so get it early.

Monday, December 01, 2008



Jags/Texans 2nd half Over 23 ( 1 unit)


Jax +3 ( 1 unit)

To spare you the long write up, here are some bullet points why you take the Jags +3

The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last meeting
Jacksonville is a live dog
Jacksonville is a dog on national TV
Houston will be more likely to turn the ball over

The biggest key to betting Jacksonville, is finding out whether or not David Garrard will be a game manager or a QB. Against strong defenses and strong run defenses he doesn't have that luxary. I think facing a weak Houston run D that gives up an average of 4.5 per carry will allow him to succeed. In the last head to head matchup, the Jags won by 3.

The other most similar team to Houston that Jacksonville faced was Denver @ Denver and they won 24-17. The game should be tight, Jacksonville honestly probably has a better than 50% chance of winning ( although not too high), but when you factor in the 3 points, I'd say this pick hits at over 60% of the time. In fact, the dog in the series is 6-2.

Jacksonville's D could be fired up early with all their turnmoil, and Houston loves to run misdirection in that Denver Shanny, Alex Gibbs, Kubiak style they run. In the last matchup MJD didn't get many carries ( although he did well), but I'd expect 100+ from him and the W tonight.

The biggest factor to me is that...
- David Garrad won't have to be a QB when HOU gives up 4.5 per run
- Rosenfelds/Schaub will be more turnover prone than Garrard

Jax + 3GL

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