Monday, December 01, 2008


Jax +3 ( 1 unit)

To spare you the long write up, here are some bullet points why you take the Jags +3

The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last meeting
Jacksonville is a live dog
Jacksonville is a dog on national TV
Houston will be more likely to turn the ball over

The biggest key to betting Jacksonville, is finding out whether or not David Garrard will be a game manager or a QB. Against strong defenses and strong run defenses he doesn't have that luxary. I think facing a weak Houston run D that gives up an average of 4.5 per carry will allow him to succeed. In the last head to head matchup, the Jags won by 3.

The other most similar team to Houston that Jacksonville faced was Denver @ Denver and they won 24-17. The game should be tight, Jacksonville honestly probably has a better than 50% chance of winning ( although not too high), but when you factor in the 3 points, I'd say this pick hits at over 60% of the time. In fact, the dog in the series is 6-2.

Jacksonville's D could be fired up early with all their turnmoil, and Houston loves to run misdirection in that Denver Shanny, Alex Gibbs, Kubiak style they run. In the last matchup MJD didn't get many carries ( although he did well), but I'd expect 100+ from him and the W tonight.

The biggest factor to me is that...
- David Garrad won't have to be a QB when HOU gives up 4.5 per run
- Rosenfelds/Schaub will be more turnover prone than Garrard

Jax + 3GL

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