Sunday, September 28, 2008


2nd half play
Dallas -8.5 ( 2.5 units).

I said that I wanted the game to be close and to play dallas 2nd half. You get your shot here. This is basically for the cowboys just to win. They are at home, and clearly the better team. The first half was a little rough, but I fully expect them to come back and win.



Dallas -10.5 ( 1 unit)

2nd Half


Browns + .5 ( 1 unit)
Arizona/Jets O 20.5 ( 1 unit)


Tampa Bay Pick em ( bodog) 1 unit
Arizona + 1.5 ( beted) 1 unit

Week 4

Week 4
Cincy/Cleveland Over 44 ( bought .5) 3 units
KC + 9.5 ( sucker bet) 2 unit
Vikings/Titans Under 36
Titans -3
Arizona + 1.5
Green Bay + 1.5
Dallas 2nd half

I don't like this week's games as much, but the first game that jumped out at me was the Cincy/Cleveland over 44. I was on the Bengals over last week, and I noted that their offense was severely undervalued. KC is a classic overvalued/undervalued sucker bet. I would ideally like the Redskins/Cowboys game to be close at halftime, as I will play Dallas who is much better ( and a 2nd half team). I don't like laying 11.5 points, so hopefully it will be close at halftime and I can get in for a lower number. I do like Dallas to win so why not try and get a cheaper number?

Cincy/Cle O 44
- 2 offensive teams with weak defenses ( should naturally make you think over).
- Defenses give up more than 44 ppg on average ( last year they gave up over 48 ppg combined) and the number is only 44.
- Cle gives up 145 and 4.1 per game rushing thus far
- Cincy gives up 174.3 and 4.7 per game rushing thus far
( that means both teams should be able to move the ball)

Neither offense has done anything thus far, but look at who they played.
@ Baltimore = good defense and a road game, could be a top 5 D again
Pitt = One of the best defenses in the league, top 3
Dallas = A top 10 defense from last year
@ NYG = road game against the champs pressure defense, top 10.
Tenn = Titans are probably top 5, and there were 50 mph winds to kill passing
@ Bal = road game against what could be a top 5 defense again

The thing that really undervalued cincy was the game against the titans where it was so windy the goal posts were shaking. That completely changes the game. It kills passing ( cincy), and favors defense and running ( not the Bungles who get gashed on the ground), but the titans who have thunder and lighting at rb, and a solid D. Cincy didn't put up points but that should come as no surprise.

This is the best play on the entire card. Cincy's offense already started to come alive last week against the Giants, and the Browns should put up points on the Bungles. I really like their offensive coordinator and how he takes calculated risks ( too many teams are way to conservative).

Last year these two teams played in a shoot out with a 51 to 45 score and 96 total points. 44 is not THAT high of a total, and I believe both coaches are ok with attacking each other and trying to outscore the other team as opposed to trying to max out TOP and be efficient.

If you anything else look at the injuries in the Bengals secondary. Two safeties are hurt and Johnathan Joseph is hurt as well. If I am the Browns I am attacking with Braylon Edwards and Winslow.

The Bengals had a rough time last week with the Giants ( I believe Palmer was sacked 7 times), but the Browns and their 3-4 defense won't be able to put that kind of pressure on Palmer without blitzing. The Browns couldn't put any pressure on Romo in week 1 and the Bengals are in for an easier week this week. Palmer is still one of the best QB's in the league and people are sleeping on them.

Chiefs + 9.5
I haven't booked this one yet as I am hoping to get + 10 right before kick off. If you like the Cheifs, wait as long as you can until kickoff because the public is eating Denver at over a 70 percent clip.

Denver = overvalued, people will pay extra to bet Denver
KC = undervalued, people are avoiding them at all costs
Overvalued + undervalued = a good recipe to win money

Denver has the #1 offense in the league and is 3-0. If that isn’t tempting enough for Joe Public, then I don’t know what is. I am actually 2-0 betting on Broncos games. I took the Bronocs in their week 1 romping of the Raiders on MNF, and I took the Chargers +1.5 on the road in Denver for the ½ point win. The public loves offense, and they love winners. The Broncos should NOT have beat SD with two gift calls from the ref ( 1 early on, and a late Cutler fumble that would have ended the game). I am impressed with a young Jay Cutler, I love shanny, but I don't like them to cover this week.

KC has looked like the worst team in the league with 3rd stringer Tyler Thigpen, but now they are getting Damon Huard back. The public hates KC and many people see them as the worst team in the league. I’ve always felt that if you are going to run a boring, low risk, conservative offense, why not just have a Vet game manager? That is exactly what the ultra conservative Herm is doing this week, he wants Huard to start because he is less prone to turnovers than Thigpen.

Denver does have a good offense ( actually #1 right now), the thing that Joe Public is overlooking is that the Broncos have given up an average of 425 yards on defense and 8.9 per pass ( terrible).

Herman Edwards formula in games where he is an underdog is to run the ball, stay conservative, keep it close and try and win the game at the end. That is a PERFECT formula for a 9.5 point home underdog to cover a point spread.

Double Digit home dogs are just one of this historical plays that don’t look good, but will win at 60% or better.

KC with Thigpen is probably the worst team in the league but they are NOT with Damon Huard, and they are NOT playing this rivalry game at Arrowhead. Forget about the Chiefs getting crapped on because 3rd string thigpen's chiefs are very different than with Huard. You are getting extra points on this one. The Chiefs nearly beat NE on the road in week 1 ( but failed at the Goal line and lost by 7, and now the Chiefs find themselves nearly double digit dogs at home vs an overvalued Denver team.

Vikings/ Titans
- Almost 10 years ago we would see this QB match up in the NFC East, Kerry Collins and the NYG vs Gus and the Redskins. Both old backups take over for their injured/ineffective mobile quarterbacks. Both teams are built around their strong run games and stopping the run. Everybody knows the Vikings were #1 in rushing, last in passing, and #1 in rush D last year. The Titans have a very strong defense and they are also built on rushing ( now with Chris Johnson and Len Whale White).

Lots of rushing = a running clock, and lot of rushing + run defense = lots of punting. 37 is a much better number than 36 ( for example a 20 to 17 game). I do like the game to stay low scoring and I do like the Titans ( but I don't like betting favs in low scoring games like this). Not sure how it plays out, but something to think about.

Week 3 recap

Week 3
CardCincy/NYG O 41 ( 5 units) Win
Dallas -3 ( 3 units ) Win
Tampa +3 ( 1 unit +110 bodog) Win
Minny -3 ( 1 unit ) sucker bet Win
Wash -3 ( 1 unit ) Win
NYG 2nd half -7 ( 1 unit) Loss
Pittsburgh +3.5 ( 1 unit) Loss

Great week 5-2 and won my 2 larger plays to put me ~ + 9 units !
Cincy/Giants - A game where Cincy had 2 TD, 3 Fg, and the Giants had 2 td and 4 fg. Both teams had dropped tds in the end zone, and the game should have had at least 10 more points. It was my big play and was one of the more worst case scenerios but it still won.
Dallas - They were only a 3 point fav, and as I said, you might not see them giving so little ever again.
Tampa - I always love a live dog that has a chance to win outright. Both teams sort of mirror each other, but Tampa had the vet QB and Tampa was the better team and stole a win on the road.
Minny - Classic sucker bet. I knew the Panthers were in trouble when Delhomme got sacked on a Winfield corner blitz and started going nuts and was yelling at everybody.
Wash - I don't like them, so I might as well profit off them when they win.
NYG 2nd half - Lost this one by 1 point. It was really a play on the Giants coming back and winning this game ( they did), but that 1 point hook got me. It happens to the best of us.
Pitt - Pitt was a "live dog" in this game for a while, but I strongly fault their offensive coordinator. Big ben had constant pressure in his face, and they just kept dropping him back on 5 and 7 step dropps until he got knocked out of the game. The OC should have been running screens, draws, more 1st down passes, WR screens, and QB roll outs that move the pocket, and move the target for the defense. It was pathetic and it was only a matter of time for sacks, picks, and injury ( and they did happen). I give the OC and "F". The Steelers D did look good though.

Sunday, September 21, 2008


Pittsburgh +3.5 ( 1 unit)



NY Giants 2md half -7 ( 1 unit)

Week 3 ADD

Week 3 Card
Cincy/NYG O 41 ( 5 units)
Dallas -3 ( 3 units )
Tampa +3 ( 1 unit +110 bodog)
Minny -3 ( 1 unit ) sucker bet
Wash -3 ( 1 unit )

Tampa +3
Tampa is the better team here and they are getting points. Kyle Orton is a younger more mistake prone version of Griese, and I do like that Grease man has played with the Bears and knows the speed and tendencies of the defenders.

Both teams have quality defenses, and weaker offenses, but I like Tampa offense better. People were talking about how historically bad the Bears O would be a few weeks ago, but after they upset the Colts and fought with the Panthers, now they are laying points at home vs the NFC South champs of last year.

Tampa gets the edge on offense, but in a low scoring defensive slugfest, special teams play a bigger than usual part in the game. If Devon Hester was 100% healthy I am not sure I play this game, but with his impact reduced, Tampa is the better all around football team. Joesph, Gaines Adams, Brooks, and Galloway are dinged up, but Tampa is the better team. Antionio Bryant actually might be an upgrade over Galloway, and I'd expect Gruden to muster up enough offense to win outright. The 3 points are just a buffer and I love live dogs.

Minny -3
Classic sucker bet here. The public LOVES the Panthers for beating SD in SD, the public loves the dramatic come back victory last week over the bears, and they know Carolina is a better team this year. The Panthers are historically awesome under Fox as road dogs.

Joe Public also saw Minny squander a few games, replace their QB, and their star RB is hurt. A lot of money has been pouring in on Carolina, but that line isn't moving.

As sick as Adrian Peterson is, Chester Taylor is a capable starter and one of the best backups in the league. I think Peterson plays anyway, but even if he doesn't Minny wins this game.

If Terrible Tavaras was benched BEFORE the season, Minny would be at worst 1-1 right now, but maybe 2-0. He did absolutely nothing against Green Bay ( look at his first half numbers), his team carried him along, and he still threw a pick at the end of the game that cost his team. Last week, his team was in the red zone 5 times and had to kick 5 FG. Gus is no saint at QB, but he is the definition of average at this point, and right now that is good enough. Minnesota lost two one of the best NFC teams 2 weeks ago, and one of the best AFC teams last week, and they should have won both games. Minus the QB position, this is a very talented team. Minny's perception is underrated at 0-2 right now with 2 close losses to good teams, and Carolina's is overrated at 2-0 with 2 close wins. This game is a classic sucker bet.

Wash -3
I always love taking east coast teams in 1pm starts against west/central time zone teams. Arizona has beat nobody yet, and they haven't faced a defense like washington yet. JC will run the boring conservative offense, and the Skins win. Too much to write up, but I like them to win this one before traveling to Philly/Dallas and getting beat down.

Also looking at...
Wash/Arizona 2nd half over
Texans/Titans 2nd half over
No/Den 2nd half over
If the 1st halfs are low scoring and the numbers look good.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Week 3

Week 2 Recap
Jets -1 = LOST 2 units
Green Bay -3 WON 2 units
Colts -2 WON 2 units
Saints -1 LOST 2 units
NY Giants @ STL Lambs OVER 41 WON 2 units
SD +1.5 WON 1 unit
Plays = 4-2 +3 units
Leans (3-0)
Titans +1 Won
Giants -9 Won
Eagles + 7 Won

I also had a 6 game parlay that did NOT include the Saints/Skins that I submitted that paid 48-1. A few lines moved and I did NOT resubmit it but the 6 team parlay won. I could go jump off a bridge it makes me so mad. I really liked last weeks games, but I didn't go in too much. I do NOT like week 3 as much as there is just so much damn chalk and average teams playing each other.

Evens the games I lost last week Redskins/Pats I said that " if you are ever going to bet these teams, do it now when public perception is so low on them".

Week 3
Cincy/NY Giants O41 ( 5 units)
Dallas -3 @ GB ( 3 units)

Bungles @ Giants O41
Before I even looked at this weeks games, I knew I wanted this one. I figured the spread would be about 44-45 when in reality it should be about 47 or 48. I think I like the Giants overs on the road better ( being on the road doesn't really hamper their offense), but I like this one very much. The biggest fear would be that the Giants build a good 2 TD lead, and then just rip off 5-6 yard run after run, bleed the bungles defense, and then not convert in the Red zone and kick field goals.

One of the reasons I like this game is that the Bengals offense is very undervalued. If I am a fantasy football player, I am trying to offer trades for Palmer, Chad, and Hoosh at these depressed values. I am a super hard QB critic but Palmer is still one of the best. The Bengals have their share of problems, but offense is NOT the biggest worry. Marvin Lewis is by far the biggest problem in Cincy and he better be counting his days of being paid as an NFL head coach.

Everybody loved coach affirmative action once he got hired, but the guy has done nothing in years, and has lost his team. Ocho Stinko loved Marvin when he was hired, but this off season didn't want to play in Cincy anymore. Chris Henry got kicked off the team, but they resigned him and begged him to come back ( how does that undermine the coaches message, how desperate does that make the Bengals look?). Rudi Johnson was booted right before the year started and we all know about how many Bengals got arrested and how many times. The worst part of all, is that coach affirmative action is supposed to be a defensive genius, but every Bengals defense he has coached sucked. Marvin Lewis is good for nothing, and does not deserve to wear the headset. He can't coach a winning team, and he can't even keep his guys out of jail.

The Giants offense WILL move the ball. Brandon Jacobs will keep the chains moving ripping off solid runs, and Eli will have the ability to throw play action etc. Will the Giants convert in the Red zone? Will these drives be too long and time consuming? These are the major questions. The Giants played a similar defense last week, and covered the O/U pretty much themselves with 41 points. I'd expect the G-men to put up north of 28 points, and probably over 30.

Cincy on the other hand has had trouble on O. Carson Palmer is NOT an average QB. Ocho and Hoosh are good, and they have played together awhile. The Ravens shut them down in week 1, and the Bengals learned the hard way that they aren't great at running the ball, so they will pass more which favors more points and clock stopping.

I naturally wanted to play a Bengals Over after last week and the number looks more than fair. Not only was Cincy playing one of the best defenses in the league ( Titans) last week, but there were about 35-40 mph winds that were blowing the goal posts. It had to be the worst Sept. weather for a passing oriented team, and it strongly favored the run game ( Titans). Last weeks winds artificially held the Bengals offense down. The Bengals are NOT a 7 point per week offense. If they played the Rams in the dome last week, they could have put up 30. The Bengals averaged 24 ppg last year and their offense will correct their problems while old Marvin and his stinky defense will get gashed by the Giants. Look for them to put up 20+ points and the Giants 28+. If the Bengals offense really steps up and gets into a shoot out, this over could be over in the 3rd Q.

Dallas -3
I picked Dallas and the Colts in the super bowl. It would be hard to argue that Dallas isn't the very best team in the NFL right now, while NE, Indy, and SD all have their problems. Dallas is about a 13-3 team to me and is clearly better than the Packers.

Today the talking heads on TV were talking about how the Packers made the right move with Favre, and how " I knew Rodgers would be good all along", and how he is headed for the hall of fame... what? After 2 games and one of them against the Lions?

Dallas is a power house and they are the better team IMO. They cowboys could have won by even more if it weren't for the fumble/td and the pick. Aaron Rodgers hasn't been tested as much.

If Dallas is a 13-3 team, they have tough games @ Philly, @ NYG, @ Pitt and maybe they just crap the bed against a decent team or too for 3 losses. Last year Romo went into Buffalo and threw 5 picks on national TV. I do think they crap the bed sometime this year, and that will be a landmine to all Dallas betters, but I do NOT think this is the game.I think Dallas claims NFC superiority this week on National TV and a 3 point spread isn't much. This opinion obviously isn't super popular yet, because the talking heads on TV are still sucking off Aaron Rodgers and hyping him up. Let's see how he does in this very big game.

I will admit he didn't look like a rookie or first year guy out there... but let's see you do it again.

TB +3 ( a live dog, mirror image team of Chicago but better)
Wash ( I was ok with them -3, but I don't like that hook)
SD should win, I just want to figure out if they win by 10 or not ( I hate that big chalk)I do think the bookies will love week 3 though. These big chalkie spreads. If you bet every dog you would probably come out slightly on top, but it is hard to predict exactly how this week shakes out. Week 2 was much easier.

Sunday, September 14, 2008


SD +1.5 ( 1 unit)

Week 2

I am most likely going to add SD -1, but I want to see how the early games shake out. I also like Philly +7, but I can wait until tomorrow to add that one as well. I lean with the Titans +1, or maybe a 2nd half play, but I no add yet. The rest of my card is in my last posting. GL.

Here are some notes from the TB/NO game, and Ten/Jax
Saints/Bucs recap
- Bobby Mccray rotating in at end, solid depth for the Saints
- Porter had a couple key stops and was an obvious upgrade, Aaron glenn, Randall gay ( out this week) improvements over David.
- Vilma is a huge upgrade to that LB core
- Sedrick Ellis in on the action, beefs up that DL.

- Saitns had 4 WR with 25 yard catch or more
- Shockey didn’t do much early, but came to life later
- Tampa had some exotic blitzes on defense that will terrorize opposing QB’s.
- Saints had 2 key penalties in a row early in the game.
- Gaines Adams was tackled by the LT on Reggie Bush’s long td, terrible no call.

- Chris Johnson really looked awesome out there
- Wilcotts making excuses for Vince Young’s poor play. Vince overthrows his receiver, and Wilots blames the WR. A WR drops a ball ( it happens to every QB), and Wilcots is saying Vince has no receivers, as if Peyton Manning and Tom Brady never have WR drops. Eli Manning had the most drops in the league last year, and he won the super bowl.

Jags/ Titans
- 2 picks and a fumble for VY - inaccurate throws, all blamed on receivers but moron color commentary.
- 2 picks for Garrard
- under throwing Williamson,
I can’t watch a game that Soloman Wilcotts calls. The guy doesn’t even understand the passing game at all. When a mistake happens, he can’t even decipher who’se fault it is ( QB or receiver). No wonder he loves scramblers, their poor reads and throws are never their fault.

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Week 2

Week 2:

Jets -1 ( bought .5 point)@ Cheater Patriots 2 units
Green Bay -3 @ Detroit ( 2 units )
Colts -2 @ Viqueens ( 2 units )
Saints -1 @ Deadskins ( 2 units )
NY Giants @ STL Lambs OVER 41 ( bought .5 point)

Last week I finished 3-3 but lost money due to varying units. In the Seattle and Miami games, my worst fears came true ( Bills ST, Favre Fluke play). I still feel like Miami was the right call, but you can't win them all. The smart play isn't always the winning play. The Colts crapped the bed, and I can't stand Tony Dungy as a coach, but whatever, they will bounce back this week. I also know that I had multiple leans that I didn't play that won ( Dal, GB, GB 2nd half over).

I jumped on these early because the lines could move against me, and I like these enough to play there. Here are the short write ups.

Jets -1
The Reason you buy the .5, is because 1 is a key number and 1.5 is not. 1 point is basically just to win. Everybody loves to buy to 3 or 7, but people overlook 1, 4, and 6. Last year before the year I bet on the Pats to win it all, and I was saying that Brady is better than you think ( he put up the stats to back it up last year). It wasn't that people didn't think he was good, but he means so much to his team. Last year Joe Gibbs wouldn't even let Jason Campbell call audibles, but Manning and Brady could call their own damn plays. If you sit back in coverage, they will beat you, and if you blitz them, they will find hot routes and beat you. I don't believe the Pats have some awsome offensive line, but Brady's intelligence MADE them look better because he was quick to get rid of the ball so they weren't getting beat. That also opens up the run game etc. and there is a snowball effect... No Brady = No snowball effect. Not only will his loss hurt the offense, but the defense could be on the field longer etc. I haven't liked what I have seen from Matt Cassell, and I believe the Jets win this one. If the Pats can barely squeak out a win at home vs the Croyle/Huard and the Chiefs, the Jets at home should win.

Favre wasn't super impressive last week ( lucky TD toss), but the team overall looks better and his arm opens up the entire field. The Jets did throw some passes down field, instead of the short stuff and check downs they would have been throwing with Clemens or Penny. I actually like the threat of Favre to help open up things for Thomas Jones too and help the D.

Green Bay -3
In General it isn't a good thing to play a team that won a nationally televised game, but the line is only 3. Detroit's defense is still terrible. They stunk last year and they lost their big guy in the middle in Shaun Rodgers ( how bad are they now)? Well, they gave up a record 220 yards ( 10 per carry) to Michael Turner, and they gave up almost 100 to his backup. That is terrible! Especially with a rookie QB in his first start who isn't exactly a gigantic passing threat. Their defense isn't there, their coach stinks, and Kitna is average?

Green Bay on the other hand has a defense. The thing that stuck out to me in the Minnesota game was that they hit hard. Maybe they can cause some fumbles this week. GB was a solid team last year, and all Rodgers has to do is manage the game against a weak Lions D, and they should cruise on to victory. I thought Rodgers didn't look like a typical rookie or first year quarterback. I'm not calling him the new Favre or anything, but at least he wasn't bad. The thing about this play though, goes back to defenses. Green Bay has one, Detroit doesn't. Last year the Packers put up 37 and 34 points on the Lions. A 3 point spread isn't exactly calling for a blowout. Basically, if the you think the 13-3 Packers beat a Lions team with one of the worst defenses in the league, play the Pack -3.

Colts -2
I can't believe the Colts lost the first game ever in Lucas Oil Stadium. Usually teams are fired up and defend their ground in a new stadium. You can talk about Manning etc., but I feel that the Bears D played good. I also like how Lovie Smith would have Urlacher/Briggs in the A gaps, either firing in and blitzing, or pulling back. It really put a lot of pressure on the Colts backup center, and they tricked him and got at least 1 easy sack. I like Lovie Smith as a coach, mixing it up, preaching turnovers ( and getting them). The Bears were lined up against the Colt's O-line to confuse them. The Bears don't normally do that, but Lovie made the adjustment for THIS game. Tony Dungy is horrible at adjusting, the guy is a super conservative coach who wants to just stick to his game plan and not try anything "too crazy". This is why he couldn't win the big one in Tampa, and this is why Manning had to carry him to a title 2 years ago. In the playoffs somebody else will "beat you" if you keep challenging them to do so.

The Colts played his boring cover 2 like usual. The only variation he had is when Bob Sanders would creep down and have some run support. Here the Colts are playing a weak QB, and a rookie RB in his first ever NFL game, and Dungy plays his boring old cover 2 and gets crapped on for 29 points. People were talking about the Bears having a historically bad offense, and Dungy blew it. Dungy also wasted 2 timeouts with "hope" challenges that were obviously not going to get reversed.

The Vikings have the awsome RB that could run wild on the Colts D, but Tavaras Jackson is terrible. The guy had 6 yards passing near the end of the first half? The Packers were daring him to throw the ball downfield, and he failed to execute. He would throw a deep ball 15 yards too short, or get sacked, or just not understand what the hell is going on.

I think the Colts win this one. I was very dissapointed after the first game, but Manning will be back. The Vikings have a weak pass D ( although better with Jared Allen), but I thought the Colts would be 7-0 or 6-1 by the time they meet the Patriots later in the year ( I was wrong). The Colts are banged up and do have injuries to their O-Line ( and Addai who is questionable after taking a nasty hit), but I think they find a way to win. If Addai will play, this spread could easily creep up from -2 to -3.

Saints -1
The Saints put up 24 points last week against the Bucs. Tampa has a better D than Washington, and I'd expect the Saints to put up more than 20 points at Washington. I understand this game will be on the road and on Grass, but Naw Awlans has the chess pieces on offense to put up points. I'd like if Deuce could get in there and do something, but Pierre is decent himself. Ragina Bush probably wouldn't be much of a rushing threat vs this Skins D ( they are pretty good), but he could be helpfull catching passes.

If you believe in the Redskins at all, this is the time to bet on them. They are at a point of max pessimism. Their offense didn't do anything in the preseason and anything at all in the regular season. I was anti- Jason Campbell for a while, and now even his biggest fans are starting to come around and say things that I have been saying ( holds onto the ball forever, long release, not reading the defense, too many check downs etc.).

The good thing for the Redskins is that I don't really believe in the Saints defense as well. If the Redskins could muster any offense at all, they could win this game. I'd just rather have Drew Brees against a good defense, than Jason Campbell still learning and against a bad defense. The Saints defensive ends actually aren't that bad with Smith and Grant to pressure Campbell. I see the Saints going over 20 points, but I am not sure about the Skins. I also think more times than not, the Saints win this game. Sure, if you played this game 100 times, a certain percentage of time the Saints would crap the bed, but more times than not they win this game.

Giants/Lambs over 41
I bought the half point because 41 is actually pretty key. Example, 21-20 game. Marc Bulger and the Rams have looked bad in the preseason and horrible in week 1. If you are ever going to play a team, you do that at point of max pessimism. The Rams were terrible last week, and probably can't be THAT bad. They almost looked like they weren't trying. On the other side of the ball, the Rams are very vulnerable to throw the ball against. An underrated or underachieving offense and a weak pass defense are both are good for overs.

The Giants on the other hand only scored 16 points, but had to settle for field goals in the red zone 3 out of 4 times. They moved the ball against Washington ( a better defense) and could move the ball at least as well, plus converting more TDs instead of FGs.

I actually thought this would open 44 or higher and I'd still like it as I'd expect about 47 points, but 41 is a good solid play. Maybe this game gets pushed up a few points before sunday, that's why I played it today.

Monday, September 08, 2008


Denver -3 ( 1 unit )

Dungy blew it yesterday.
I got home too late from work to add GB -3, and I didn't pull the trigger on the 2nd half over. Let's home Denver beats Oakland.

Sunday, September 07, 2008

Week 1 recap

Week 1 recap

Week 1 Card
Giants -4 ( 1 unit ) .............Win
Teaser: Indy -3 Pending + Philly -1.5 WON( 5 units )
Seattle: Pickem ( 1 unit ) ........................ LOSS
Miami + 3 ( 1 unit ) ( waiting until right before kickoff to try and get 3.5) LOSS
Lean Dallas ( no play yet, but possible 2nd half play ) NO PLAY
Arizona 2nd half -1
( 1 unit )............... Win
2-2 so far with the Colts game remaining to decide 5 unit teaser.


- 2nd pass of the game, Mcnabb hits Desean Jackson on a 47 yard pass play. It was nice because Jackson was actually covered pretty well, but showed good ball skills.
- Eagles scored on their first drive of the year in 3 or 4 plays. Mcnabb looks healthy and the offense looks potent. This offense is a function of Mcnabb and not WR talent.
- The D looked good too stuffing Steven Jackson on a key 3rd and 1.
- This game was really a whooping, I was flipping around and watching 3 games at once. What does that say about the speed of NFL games.
- This was an easy game, and played pretty much like I thought it would. I would have went Philly ATS also, but I only had it in the teaser.

- The first offensive play for Seattle this year was a dropped pass. How ominous for the game and the season.
- Neither offense is doing anything early with lots of punts. Seattle is asking to lose this game on special teams.
- The first 5 series, Seattle had 3, 3 and outs, and 2, 4 and outs.
- BS call on a screen pass, 2nd and 20 instead of 2nd and 3 in the Red zone killed Seattle.
- Roscoe Parrish runs back an awesome Punt Return Touch down. His running was awesome, but his entire unit was out throwing blocks. Credit Roscoe, and credit the Bills special teams.
- Nate Burlson drops and easy TD, then on the very next play makes an amazing catch for a TD.
- Jeb Putzier has 3 drops for Seattle, that is inexcusable.
- Leroy Hill almost picks off a screen pass for an easy TD.
- Buffalo gets their second Special teams TD. Game over for me. I was wrong on this one and Buffalo won this game easily. I was right to be worried about special teams, the Bills had 2 ST TDS.

- Brett Favre hits J. Cotchery on a deep ball with an awesome play fake. Take a look at Favre’s fake vs a guy like Byron Leftwhich. Favres fake got everybody in the house and was nothing short of art work, while Byron’s fakes almost look like a chore for him to stick the ball out toward the running back. Credit Favre with that little aspect of his game. I’d also like to say I drafted Cotchery in my Fantasy league and expect a better than expected year out of him.
- Jets 4th round draft pick Noah Lowery had a number of deflected passes and looked real good.
- Mike Nugent hurt? It caused the Jets to go for a 4th and 13, where Favre avoids a sack and throws up a prayer. It resulted in a TD in what I believe was a fluke play… the play of the game. I was expecting a play like this to be the disaster that caused the Jets problems, but it worked.
- 2 penalties on Jake Long, 1 cost the fins a first down.
- Terrible Pass Interference call not called on J. Cotchery. The Fins on 3rd and goal were screwed, and failed to score at the goal line. That finish and the end of the game cost them. I still think Miami was the right play. The Jets had that fluke TD that put them ahead, and the Fins had to go for TDs both times and didn’t convert. Pennington actually had a better game than Favre, and the Fins should have won in my opinion. That one hurts to lose and I still feel like I made the right call.

- I really like Marion Barber this year as a featured back. Felix Jones looked good too, his first ever NFL carry was an 11 yard TD run where he looked like he was shot out of a cannon.
- Pacman Jones with a penalty in the end zone, why can’t this guy control himself?
- Braylon Edwards is a beast, but the guy drops too many passes. He had the 2nd most drops last year only to TO.
- Dallas looked real good, their O-Line doesn’t get enough credit either. The NFC east might have the NFC’s three best teams with Dallas, Philly and the Giants.

- Kurt Warner waits until the last possible second before he throws his passes. He is going to get killed and fumble one of these times.
- 3rd Q there was a key clipping penalty on Reggie Wells that cost the Cards a chance at a TD in the red zone.
- Ken Wisenhunt tries a pseudo onsides kick and it worked. I like him as a head coach. He went for a 4th and inches with his new power RB Tim Hightower.

- If Tom Brady is out for all of 08 that team is in serious trouble. If Matt Cassell is the QB, this team goes 6-10 and doesn’t make the playoffs. I suggest trading for Chris Simms or BB might just call up Daunte Fumblepepper or 89 year old Vinny T. They need to get their hands on Simms. Either way, those Colts futures I bought today look good as the Colts would instantly be favorites in the AFC.

2nd Half ADD

Arizona 2nd half -1 ( 1 unit)

No other plays, dallas too far in front to take them or the over.

Week 1 card

Season Plays
Indy O 11 wins ( 2 units ) ( +140)
Balt U 6 wins ( 2 units ( +100 )
Cle U 8 wins ( 2 units ) ( + 100 )
Indy to win SB 43 ( 2.5 units) ( +900)

Week 1 Card
Giants -4 ( 1 unit ) .............Win
5 unit Teaser: Indy -3 + Philly -1.5 ( 5 units )
Seattle: Pickem ( 1 unit )
Miami + 3 ( 1 unit ) ( waiting until right before kickoff to try and get 3.5)
Lean Dallas ( no play yet, but possible 2nd half play )

Always nice to start the year off a winner with the Giants -4. Please notice I have placed a wager on the Colts to win it all, and have posted my week 1 card. Questions and comments are always welcome at my email.

Indy -3/Philly -1.5 Teaser
I have picked Indy in the SB and I believe they will be the best team in the NFL this season. Last year the Colts were 13-3 with the leagues 3rd highest scoring offense (28.13 ppg), and # 1 scoring defense (16.38). If there was ever a stat for efficiency, the Colts would get 1st or 2nd on that stat for their offense. Last year I predicted the Pats offense to break out. I knew that Tom Brady “could” throw for a lot of yards, but why should he when his team is up by 2 scores and they can just run down the clock with the power run game? Peyton Manning had a reversal of that. Why should he be chucking the ball down field and scoring fast, when his defense will get right back on the field ( and tire down so they are weak in the 4th Q). The Colts offense went to extreme efficiency, and it helped the defense a lot. The Colts also had key injuries to M. Harrison ( played 1/3 of the year), Freeney and others. They break in new Lucas Oil Stadium with a big win here.

The Bears on the other hand could have the worst offense in the league. Last year they were dead last in Yards per rush (3.14) and the last thing you want to do is have Orton ( or Grossman) in a lot of 3rd and long pass plays. The offense overall finished 5th worst in the league in yards. I think the defense will improve this year, but they won’t be able to stop Manning. Usually when people think of blow outs, they think of a good offense whopping up on a bad defense, however there are defense induced blowouts too. This isn’t so much about Manning shredding the Bears D ( because they will probably try and run the clock down after they get a 10+ point lead), but it is about the weakness of the Bears on O and facing an improved Colts D.

Philly is also a team that I like more than most people. They finished 8-8 and last place in the NFC, but they were probably the best last place team I have ever seen. They had 3 playoff teams in the division, lost their starting QB part of the year, and lost a number of close games they shouldn’t have. Philly easily could have been 10-6 last year and people would like them a lot more coming into this year.

The Eagles are a hurt at WR, but in the WCO they run, Mcnabb is a bigger function of the output as opposed to the receivers. Baskett, Lewis, and Avant will be fine against the Rams weak secondary that was 5th worst per pass last year. The Rams also gave up 115 per game on the ground last year, and Westbrook should tear them up. I like the Eagles to win this game and cover.

Marc Bulger looked weak in preseason, and this passing team is historically terrible playing outside on grass. The Eagles quietly had a top 10 defense last year, and I think that will largely negate the offense of the Rams. Philly is at Dallas next week, so look for them to clean this one up early. In my opinion, both teams win and cover their spreads, but I have them teased.

Seattle +1:
Seattle is clearly the better team here. People are down on them because two of their receivers are hurt, but they do run the WCO where you don’t have to have stud WRs. They also have 3 RBs that they can rotate in and out to move the chains. Seattle is better than Buffalo on offense, and Defense, but Buffalo has better special teams. If you had to bet 100 times, and you pick the team with a better QB, Coach, Offense and Defense, you will win more times than not.

Seattle is going to the NFC championship this year and they have a much better defense than people think. Lawrence Jackson and Patrick Kerney will get after people, they have the best LB core in the NFC and they were fine against the pass. Buffalo’s biggest threat is M. Lynch and Seattle is above average against the run with their LB core. The defense was 6th in points against last year, and I feel people are underrating the defense. Defense travels.

The best arguments against Seattle are that they are a 1 PM team traveling east for a 1 pm start, and that they can’t play on the road. These arguments are very valid, but if you are ever going to down play them, it is in week 1 when everybody is juiced for a new season. Seattle is the better team, and I expect them to kick off the season with a win over a weaker team. I think their WR injuries are over played, not the road factor.

Lean Dallas:
I want to see how the early games play out, but I do like Dallas to beat Cleveland. I am kicking myself for not getting in a 3.5, but oh well. The public is pounding the cowboys and that line is moving up. Cleveland is a home dog, and my plan is to hope for a close 1st half, and bet Dallas for the 2nd half. If I don’t have a post in time, you can email me to see my final decision.

Ideally the game is close at halftime or Dallas is losing. The odds makers think there will be points in this game, so maybe Cle is winning at half time. What if Cleveland is winning by say 3-7 points and the 2nd half line comes out with Dallas -3 to -7 ( just to win). Then I would like to play Dallas. It would allow me to sniff out a trap in the first half, and Dallas is fantastic at making adjustments on offense and they should be a good 2nd half team this year. My goal is to get Dallas in the 2nd half of this game at a good line.

I do the stock market as well, and it isn't always about picking winners, but it is also about avoiding losers. I wouldn't bet my whole life on this game, it could be easy, it could be a trap, but I will wait and see.

Indy to win it all 9/1 odds
If you are ever going to take SB futures, you should bet them before the year, and ideally right when free agency is kicking in before people are even thinking NFL. Indy should rip out wins up until their Nov. 2 match up with New England. They should actually be 7-0, maybe 6-1 with a slip up vs Jax at home, or Tenn on the road, but I think they will be favored and win all 7 games before the Patriots. I also expect them to beat NE in new Lucas Oil stadium. After that they still are @ Pitt, and Jax, but they will be the best team in a strong AFC this year and win the SB against Dallas.

Miami +3 ( or 3.5) - See sucker bet below.

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Sucker Bet, Week 1

Week 1 sucker bet
Miami +3 ( buy close to kickoff, you might get 3.5)
Public on Jets 72.44 %

- People love to talk about home field advantage of a cold weather team in December, but what about Miami in early September? Teams from up north get hot and tired in these games. I remember cashing in on Miami 2-3 years ago when I believe a favored Denver team came into town and cashing in.

- 38 year old Favre is NOT is game shape and doesn’t know the playbook very well. In general, that should be fade, but Pennington is also new to his system. If you had to contrast Pennington to Favre though, you would notice that you have one very risk averse guy who will throw passes into tight coverage, and on the other side you have a noodle armed guy who will take what the defense gives him, and dink and dunk you all day. If both guys are newbies, I want the guy with safe throws.

- Miami had a bad defense last year, but they weren’t bad against the pass. In fact they only gave up 188 yards through the air, good for 4th best in the league.

- Miami was 1-15 last year, but they were really more like a 4-12 team.

- Ronnie Brown was a league leading back before he got hurt and was averaging 5.1 per carry, while Chatman averaged 4.0 and Parcells has been happy with what he saw out of Rickey Dopehead.

- The fins drafted the best Tackle prospect in the draft, so I expect their run game to be better than the 98 yards per game they were last year with the better TB, backup TB, and stud LT prospect.

- I also expect much better QB play out of Miami this year with Penny over “Miss Cleo” Lemon. Pennington might not be ready for his new team either, but he is very risk averse. Pennington had a 68.8 completion percentage last year, and that was on a 4-12 team. He is also very familiar with the Jets and their defensive personnel.

- I’d expect the Dolphins to play a very conservative game, with Pennington and his nearly 70% comp pct, grind it out on the ground with 2 quality backs, let that Miami sun wear on the Jets until they make those inevitable mistakes.

Everybody wants to play Favre, but they are expecting too much early. There is no possible way the guy could be there 3-4 weeks and understand the terminology and offense. He is a gun slinger and prone to real good plays and real bad plays and will be throwing against last years 4th best secondary.

The Jets also have injuries. Favres top receiver is hurt ( but will probably play), One of his lineman ( Woody) is 50/50, and Shaun Ellis, and 2 corners ( Justin Miller and David Barret) are all game time decisions. Miami is actually injury free. Joey Porter is a little banged up but will play for sure.

I like Home Dogs, I like fading the public, and I like taking an underrated team against an overrated team. People are calling the Jets a lock, but I see far from it. Vegas isn’t stupid, and they are letting the public pile on the Jets at nearly a 75% clip.

Deadskins @ Giants recap

NYG – Wash recap

- Michael Strahan at the 50 yard line pumping up the crowd, the music, the celebration, the season is finally here!

- Giants failed to execute a screen pass on the 2nd play of game and that is a problem. Often times Manning’s throws aren’t good, and often times Jacobs, Ward and Bradshaw drop the ball. They need to work on this simple play in practice and get it right in games.
- 3rd down and 7, Manning converts an 8 yard pass to Steve Smith. This was a key play that got Manning and the offense in a rhythm. Sometimes just getting that 1st 1st down gets your offense in motion as it is the hardest 1st down to get. Manning dropped back, read the defense, and delivered a strike to the right player. He likes the sure handed Steve Smith on 3rd downs.

- Jason Campbell was sacked on the Redskins 1st play as he was holding onto the ball too long. This was ominous for the game and I believe for the season.
- A draw play on 3rd down was Zorn wanting to protect Campbell and not have him throw vs the blitzing D. The conservative play call was to keep it close, keep the Skins in the game, and not have a big mistake early. The running and conservative play calling was a theme of the game.

- Brandon Jacobs unloaded on Leron Laundry and the Redskins had to take him out of the game. Sports center highlight right there.

Q: Why are the Giants doing their defensive intro's with 2:49 left in the first quarter?
A: The Redskins have run 3 plays up until now.

- 3rd and 12, and Jason Campbell throws a 1-2 yard slant pass? What was Campbell thinking ?
- Redskins bailed out with Mcdougals personal foul roughing the punter.
- Washington has run 9 plays for 7 yards with 13 min in the 2nd quarter.
- Nice pass to Sinorice moss, great to see the Giants get him involved.
- Burress making some nice catches with defenders draped on him.

Look at the difference in QB play. Campbell can’t do anything right, and Eli in the first half looked like the guy we remember from the 2007 playoffs. He might not have monster stats, but he was reading the defense, getting first downs, and he kept the mistakes to a minimum. Manning was reading defenses, calling audibles, throwing long passes, short passes, intermediate passes... check downs, throwing the ball away, moving around the pocket. Campbell looks lost. Running into defenders, holding onto the ball forever, and throwing a 2 yard slant on 3rd and 12. You have got to be freaking kidding me !

Derrick ward in red zone? What is Coughlin thinking? Brandon Jacobs is THE smash mouth back out there. Last year he would bring in Reuben Droughns, why does he insist on taking out Jacobs in the red zone?

- Rock Cartwright with 2 good returns, a 50 yarder and a 35 yarder. He is an underrated underpaid special teams player.

Jason Campbell didn’t complete his first pass until 1:12 in the 2nd half. How terrible is that?

- Giants should be up by more than 16-7 at halftime.

Campbell had that pass play where he went deep to Moss, but Aaron Ross got the position. If he didn’t hold onto the ball too long, he could have lit up Moss for a TD but Moss slowed down and Aaron Ross regained position on him.

3rd and 15 Campbell throws an 8 yard pass… how many times did he throw in front of the first down marker? Down and distance !!! Then on 3rd and 18 he throws a 5 yard pass, on 4th and 13 he throws another 5 yard pass. Is he trying to pad his stats or something, throwing lots of short easy gimme passes?

The clock management/urgency by Zorn and Campbell was terrible. There are 4, 3, 2 minutes left, and you are taking your time, huddling and calling run plays? Short passes?
The first thing the Redskins need to do this week in practice, is go over down and distance. If it is 3rd and 8 and you are a receiver, you run your route at least 9 yards. It doesn’t matter if you normally run that stop at 7-8, you have to tailor your play to the situations… Down and Distance. If you are JC and it is 4th and 13, you don’t throw a 5 yard pass, that is just as bad as throwing an interception as you turn the ball over.

The Redskins need to work on Down and Distance, and the 2 minute drill. Campbell just doesn't run the offense like they are down 2 scored and trying to win. If it wasn't for a 50 yard KR, and a Penalty, the Redskins would have been shut out.

Jason Campbell exposed.
Everybody calls me a Redskins hater but holding onto the ball too long, Long wind up ( although not Leftwhich bad), no audibles, double clutching the ball, being way to conservative, always throwing check downs, screen left, screen right. The coach himself said he had to read the defense and stop locking onto guys.

Everybody can point out a QB who has problems like no mobility, a weak arm, but if you can exploit a guy like Campbell with these mistakes early on, you can profit from then. The Redskins were 9-7 and a playoff team, however they were 5-7 Under Campbell LY and he was 3-7-2 Against the Spread. Todd Collins was 4-0 as the starter, 4-0 ATS and was better in every measurable stat… TD-INT ratio, comp. pct, comp. per game, Yards per game, Team PPG, Sacked less, fumbled less, more yards per attempt, and the guy was throwing the ball BEFORE his receivers made his breaks. Collins also beat the SB champs, #1 team in NFC, Bears comeback in relief duty, and Minn on a MNF game which probably helped win the playoff birth. Collins had a QB rating over 100, Campbell was in the low 70’s.

I am not saying Campbell will never be good, or is a terrible guy, but the WCO does not match his skillset. With a lot of 3 step drops, 5 step drops, slants, quick plays, read and react, option routes, having a guy with that holds onto the ball too long with a slow release/wind up is a problem.

Campbell was 4 for 4 on 3rd downs, but didn't get a 1st down on any of those completions. You can't be a good NFL quarterback that only throws check downs.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Season Long Plays !

Here are the season long plays...
More rationale found at my season preview.
1. Indy Over 11 wins +140 ( 2 units)
- Too much value here for a team that should win 12, 13 or 14 games. I have 5 games on their schedule they should seriously have a problem with, as long as they don't lose all of those, or win some, but get upset in some games, they should take this to the bank. +140 is good odds for my predicted SB champ.
2. Baltimore Under 6 wins +100 ( 2 units)
- They have one of the most difficult schedules in the league, one of the worst quarterbacks in the league ( whoever plays), and a new coach that I am not sold at all on. This team could easily win 4 games.
3. Cleveland Under 8 wins +100 (2 units)
- I ran through the schedule and came out with 6 wins. In general, I think the public is too high on the browns, and I like fading them here. They sort of remind me of the 49ers going into last year ( a sleeper pick by some), that I don't like.There are other plays that "might work" or totals that or off, but I am not laying down -140 or anything like that on plays that I lean. I think these are the best plays out there and they all pay even money or better.

GL. ( PS, if you are looking for the Redskins/Giants preview, take a look at 2 posts ago !)

Season Preview!!!!

Ranked by order of finish
NFC East
1. Dallas *
2. Philly *
3. Giants *
4. Deadskins
1. GB *
2. Minn
3. Chi
4. Det
1. Naw Awlans
*2. Tampa
3. Carolina
4. Atlanta
1. Seattle*
2. Zona
3. St. Louie
4. San Fran
AFC East
1. New England *
2. Jets
3. Barfalo
4. Miami
1. Pitt *
2. Cincy
3. Browns
4. Balt
1. Colts *
2. Jax *
3. Tenn *
4. Hou
1. SD *
2. Den
3. KC
4. Choakland
NFC Playoffs
1. Dal
2. Sea
3. NO
4. GB
5. Philly
6. NYG
AFC Playoffs
1. Indy
2. New England
3. SD
4. Pitt
5. Jax
6. Tenn
Super Bowl in Tampa = Indy defeating Dallas

Opening night madness! The Season is back !

NYG -4 ( 1 unit)
The NFL is back! Normally the first game doesn't need any extra excitement but I do believe the Giants will win and cover. Remember 4 is a key number and I believe the Giants will exploit Jason Campbell and Jim Zorn as they adjust.
- Last Year the Redskins were 9-7 and a playoff team, but you could divide their season into two separate parts.

1) The Skins were 5-7 under Jason Campbell ( 3-7-2 ATS)
2) The Skins were 4-0 under Todd Collins (4-0A ATS)

Todd Collins in 3 starts and relief duty against Chicago had more completions per game, a higher completion percentage, less sacks, less fumbles, 5 TDs 0 interceptions, and his team scored more points per game.Collins had a 106.4 rating, while Campbell had a 77.7 rating. 8.5 yards per pass attempt vs 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The offense was obviously better under Collins and he had much better timing. He would throw BEFORE receivers made their breaks. He had a synergy with his teammates.

Jason Campbell was healthy enough to play late in the year, but Joe Gibbs went with the hot hand. Campbell has been criticized a lot by the local media and it seems like it is already getting to his head. Campbell said he was in his car listening to a talk radio show where the announcer asked if he should be benched if the Redskins start out slow. Campbell said he laughed (unfair criticism) and that the QB gets too much credit in victory, and too much credit in defeat.

However if you watch the Redskins ( I do), you will remember they lost at the Goal line vs the Giants in week 3 last year, he threw key interceptions in the Tampa, Dallas and Philly games. You could easily have called him a choak artist and at worst he ran a slow and sloppy 2 minute drill.

On the other hand, Collins comes off the perennial bench, and leads a comeback vs Chicago, beats the SB champs, Minnesota on a prime time MNF game, and the 13-3 #1 team in the NFC.

Venue: I do believe the venue favors the Giants. Jason Campbell won 1 game last year not on grass, and it was a sloppy 23-20 win over the 4-12 Jets. The faster the game, the faster the Giants pass rush gets to Campbell, and the more likely he is to get sacked/turn the ball over. The faster game also helps out the Giants who throw the ball more ( while Laundry, Taylor and Springs are banged up). LY the 2nd matchup had horrible wind and cold weather, and the Giants and the more downfield passing attack suffered.

Eli Manning was 14-6 last year as a starter, and 14-6 ATS. He played in one of the top 5 most difficult offenses to run, and started to turn the corner last year. I was pounding the table saying the G-Men were underrated last year, and they didn’t disappoint.

Predictions: We will see a pretty conservative game plan from the Redskins, with Jim Zorn running 1-2 razzle dazzle plays. Maybe a Portis pass, Randel Ell pass, double reverse… I don’t know, maybe a Play Action deep ball. I do think he will try and add a signature play.- I also predict at least 1 fumble from Campbell.

My biggest worries:
- Betting against a dog on National TV
- Usually fading the SB champs is a good idea- The Giant’s aren’t very good at defending TE’s. Antoino Pierce and K. Mitchell were not very good in space and in coverage. Good run stoppers, but not athletic enough to cover Cooley. I am hoping we see more Gerris Wilkinson on Cooley, or Sammy Knight.

Redskins 17 Giants 24

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