Sunday, January 13, 2008

ADD: Indy, 2nd Half -7.5 (+110) 2.5 units

The refs are clearly favoring Indy as SD should be winning this game 14-10. This game is being horribly officiated, but I see Indy coming through and playing better in the second half.

- Early Indy interception the corner clearly didn't have possession before he was out of bounds.
- Bob Sanders could have easily been ejected for tauting Nate Kaeting after the missed kick.
- Norv was livid from the bad call on the play before that.
- SD #32 delivered a powerful AND LEGAL block on Indy at the end of the half on the Cromartie Int that was called back.
- There was also a play where Phillip Rivers scrambled out of bounds and then then Indy defender took a super cheap shot and dove onto the back of his legs when he was about 3 yards out of bounds. Rivers got up pissed and complained for the flag.
- To top it off, I have never seen Norv Turner with this much emotion. The refs are clearly favoring Indy and are taking this game right away from him. It should be at least 14-10 SD.

With all that said, I think Indy plays better in the second half as the chargers could be real "frustrated". I wouldn't blame them. Indy -7.5 second half.

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Playoffs week 2

I am making a correction on my futures plays. Last week I stated that my first Pats future play was 2.5 units to win 32.5 ( at 12/1) odds but it would really be 30 units (plus the 2.5 back). So I would be winning 30, but also getting what I put down back. I also wrote that I laid down 2 units on seattle to win 150 for some reason, that number is actually 100.

Dallas 3 units to win 22.5 ( 7.5/1 odds)
Indy 12.5 units to win 50 (4/1 odds)

Current Holdings:
Patriots 2.5 units to win 30 (12/1)( bougth last February)
Patriots 11 units to win 110 (10/1) ( bought last feb/march)
Indy 12.5 units to win 50 (4/1) bought today as a hedge
Seattle 2 units to win 100 (50/1) bought about a month ago
Dallas 3 units to win 22.5 (7.5/1) bought today

My best outcome is for the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, and I would take home 140 units, plus my 13.5 that I put down. This is a significant dollar amount for me. Remember, during the season I was generally playing in increments of 1-5 units. At one point I was up to 25 units, (which disappeared), but now I have a chance to win much much more.

The only team that really scares me is Indy. I still think the Pats take the cake against Indy, but Indy "could" win. I know that "on any given sunday"... anybody could beat anybody, but realistically the Colts are the main challenge. The reason I took Seattle is because those odds were WAY off and they put me in a decent position today. Dallas is still the favorite, and if they do make the SB they give me some cover at a 7.5/1 price tag. Basically I want New England to play either Dallas or Seattle in the Super Bowl. The worst case scenerio would be for Green Bay to win today AND the NFC Championship.

I have the opportunity to have money on each of the final 4 teams. That would require NE, Indy, Dallas, ( and Seattle to pull the upset). How great would that be?

If there is an upset this weekend, I think that it would happen in the NFC. A few weeks ago I was correct in saying that " the Giants will win at least one more game this year, be it New England or the playoff game". They won their game. This week I also saw Joe Gibbs quit which fufilled my preseason prediction. More on that later.

Look at who could end up the final 4 quarterbacks. Brady, Manning, Romo, and Favre. Note to self, good quarterbacks make it far in the playoffs. The other most important pieces to the puzzle are defense and coaching. Bellicheck, Dungy, Phillips/Coughlin, and Mccarthy/Holmgren.

The dog with the biggest coaching advantage I think is Mike Holmgren. He is a better coach than Mike Mccarthy. Favre and Hasselback are pretty close in skill, and the defenses are both good. I like Mike Holmgreen better than Mike Mccarthy. I believe Seattle has a decent chance against Green Bay. Their biggest problem is playing on the road, but I do think they should be able to get it up for the playoffs.

2009 NFL Futures
A few years ago I learned that it is best to take NFL futures right after the SB in February or March. This does require a bucnh of uncertainty about the draft, FA, and coaching departures but you can look at a GM's past history and cap room to help gauge that. If the price is right next year and you want to jump on this early this is how I see it...

New England and Indy have a huge "moat" of competitive advantage built around them. If you can grab odds > 8/1 you really want to look at that.

After that I see a "second tier" of teams with a competitive advantage or that could be siginfigantly undervalued...
Philly, New Orleans, Dallas, Jacksonville, Chicago, San Diego. If you can grab odds >25/1 in Feb/March you really have to start looking at them as any of those teams odds will drop with good off seasons/seasons. After these guys you just start looking for value, maybe a team like the Giants, Redskins, or Titans will be unfavorable. So yes, I am already considering "NEXT" years super bowl too.

Saturday, January 05, 2008

Playoffs 07/08

The Regular season wasn't all it was cracked out for me. I lost some hard games and pissed away a 25 unit lead. I did get a chance to watch a lot of games but I changed jobs and had a lot of stuff going on. The regular season was my worst I have ever had and it was pretty much a wash. That isn't so bad. However I do have some heavy ammo for the playoffs.

NFL futures
Eagles to win SB 42, 12.5 units to win 450 Units ( 35/1 odds)( worthless)
Patriots to win SB 42, 2.5 units to win 32.5 Units ( 12/1 odds)
Patriots to win SB 42, 11 units to win to win 110 Units ( 10/1 odds)
2 units on Seattle Seahawks futures to win the Super Bowl, Payout of 150 Units
2 units on Tampa Bay futures to win the Super Bowl. Payout of 150 units

The Eagles didn't really have their worst case scenerio but pretty close to it. With that being said they were still just 1 game away from the playoffs and me hedging at least my money back.

The Pats look good and the only team I am really scared of in the playoffs is the colts. I'd expect about a 6 point spread for the Pats and I would look to hedge some. I am not really scared of anybody else.

The seattle futures appreciated and I at least expect them to beat the redskins, and I will let the Bucs ride in the first round too ( even though I think the Giants have a real good shot). I would look to hedge these guys in the 2nd round.

The regular season didn't go perfect, but with Pats futures with a payout of 142.5 units I stand a chance to make a LOT of money.

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