Saturday, January 12, 2008

Playoffs week 2

I am making a correction on my futures plays. Last week I stated that my first Pats future play was 2.5 units to win 32.5 ( at 12/1) odds but it would really be 30 units (plus the 2.5 back). So I would be winning 30, but also getting what I put down back. I also wrote that I laid down 2 units on seattle to win 150 for some reason, that number is actually 100.

Dallas 3 units to win 22.5 ( 7.5/1 odds)
Indy 12.5 units to win 50 (4/1 odds)

Current Holdings:
Patriots 2.5 units to win 30 (12/1)( bougth last February)
Patriots 11 units to win 110 (10/1) ( bought last feb/march)
Indy 12.5 units to win 50 (4/1) bought today as a hedge
Seattle 2 units to win 100 (50/1) bought about a month ago
Dallas 3 units to win 22.5 (7.5/1) bought today

My best outcome is for the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, and I would take home 140 units, plus my 13.5 that I put down. This is a significant dollar amount for me. Remember, during the season I was generally playing in increments of 1-5 units. At one point I was up to 25 units, (which disappeared), but now I have a chance to win much much more.

The only team that really scares me is Indy. I still think the Pats take the cake against Indy, but Indy "could" win. I know that "on any given sunday"... anybody could beat anybody, but realistically the Colts are the main challenge. The reason I took Seattle is because those odds were WAY off and they put me in a decent position today. Dallas is still the favorite, and if they do make the SB they give me some cover at a 7.5/1 price tag. Basically I want New England to play either Dallas or Seattle in the Super Bowl. The worst case scenerio would be for Green Bay to win today AND the NFC Championship.

I have the opportunity to have money on each of the final 4 teams. That would require NE, Indy, Dallas, ( and Seattle to pull the upset). How great would that be?

If there is an upset this weekend, I think that it would happen in the NFC. A few weeks ago I was correct in saying that " the Giants will win at least one more game this year, be it New England or the playoff game". They won their game. This week I also saw Joe Gibbs quit which fufilled my preseason prediction. More on that later.

Look at who could end up the final 4 quarterbacks. Brady, Manning, Romo, and Favre. Note to self, good quarterbacks make it far in the playoffs. The other most important pieces to the puzzle are defense and coaching. Bellicheck, Dungy, Phillips/Coughlin, and Mccarthy/Holmgren.

The dog with the biggest coaching advantage I think is Mike Holmgren. He is a better coach than Mike Mccarthy. Favre and Hasselback are pretty close in skill, and the defenses are both good. I like Mike Holmgreen better than Mike Mccarthy. I believe Seattle has a decent chance against Green Bay. Their biggest problem is playing on the road, but I do think they should be able to get it up for the playoffs.

2009 NFL Futures
A few years ago I learned that it is best to take NFL futures right after the SB in February or March. This does require a bucnh of uncertainty about the draft, FA, and coaching departures but you can look at a GM's past history and cap room to help gauge that. If the price is right next year and you want to jump on this early this is how I see it...

New England and Indy have a huge "moat" of competitive advantage built around them. If you can grab odds > 8/1 you really want to look at that.

After that I see a "second tier" of teams with a competitive advantage or that could be siginfigantly undervalued...
Philly, New Orleans, Dallas, Jacksonville, Chicago, San Diego. If you can grab odds >25/1 in Feb/March you really have to start looking at them as any of those teams odds will drop with good off seasons/seasons. After these guys you just start looking for value, maybe a team like the Giants, Redskins, or Titans will be unfavorable. So yes, I am already considering "NEXT" years super bowl too.

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