Sunday, December 16, 2007


Add: New York Giants ML ( 5 units).

The Dallas loss stunk, but I took SD unposted as well. How come whenever Eli has a bad game people say " Eli has good games and bad", but Romo just threw 3 interceptions, completed 2 out of 11 passes to Terrell Owens, and had enough fumbles that made it look like he just ate some greasy ass KFC? Nobody goes irrational after this loss on Romo, or that 5 interception game in Buffalo.


Dallas -10. (1 unit) The best team in the NFL will have fun beating up their hated rival.

A big thanks to Mike Tomlin and the Steelers defense. F-U for not being able to stop run after run after run. I understand they should have called more holding Penalties on the Jags O-Line, but I fault the coach with that one.

A big thanks to Seattle for losing to some deuche bag rookie quarterback that doesn't even deserve to be in the league. I have lost some stupid close games as of late.


Thanks Chad Johnson for dropping the game tying touchdown. Yeah, keep complaining and acting pissed off but it is YOUR fault for not catching the ball. NO, those catches weren't easy, but if you want to dance around the end zone and be the best, you have to make those plays.

I fault the hell out of Marvin Lewis too. The announcers kept giving Shaun Hill praise, but what does that tell you? Shaun Hill didn't call even 1 audible and ran the most basic offense ( it would have been so easy to defend). It also helped him that the 49ers were ripping off at least 4 or 5 yards on every first down. Bryant Gumbel called Frank Gore "Al Gore" again, and I can't believe Marshall Faulk was praising Shaun Hill etc. without pointing out who he was playing and that he was running basic stuff. Alex Smith wasn't as successful but he wasn't running tight end bootlegs against the Bengals all year either.

Tampa -13 ( 1 unit)
Pitt -3 ( 2 units) bought hook
GB/SEA Tease ( West coast offense tease)( 2 units)

- Tampa bay is fixing up for the playoffs while Atlanta is fixing up for NFL draft position. I honestly think the Falcons are one of those situations where the players already quit. Not quit quit, but they don't care anymore. I don't really see how the Falcons will muster anything up against the Bucs defense. 13 points is a lot, but if the Falcons aren't scoring much and moving the ball, the Bucs can point up enough points to cover. Nobody the Falcons could start scares me, and there is such a thing as a "defensive led blowout". 13 sounds like a lot, but what about a 28-14 score? That isn't a blowout. I think the Bucs win and cover.

Pitt -3. Before this season started I said one of the plays I would look for is playing the Steelers at home. They are just flat out better at home and their 7-0 undefeated record supports that. The Jags are not a bad team at all but I think their offense is really raw. Both teams sport good defenses but I like the Pittsburgh offense and special teams better ( even on a neutral field) never mind at home.

I don't like a teaser with two road teams but GB is 10-2 against the spread and they should at least beat the Rams. Favre has had trouble in domes, but even a little bit of trouble shouldn't matter against the Lambs. Bulger is coming back from getting his head knocked around and will be facing a legit Packers D.

Seattle has been on a roll and I expect their momentum to continue. They are playing at 1pm on the east coast but I fully expect them to be fine against whoever the Panthers throw out at QB.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Saturday night

Bengals 2nd Half -6 ( 2 units)- The Bengals screwed me last week and I am sick of hearing how well Shaun Hill played in the first half. If Marvin Lewis can't beat Shaun Hill with Carson Palmer, he really doesn't even deserve his job until the season ends.

Sunday, December 09, 2007


A freaking defensive touchdown moosed the Bengals and cost me a .5 point loss. The Redskins killed me for 10 units with a 1 point loss, and now Cincy kills me with a .5 point loss.

ADD: Seattle -7 ( 1 unit)

I want the Pats too, but hopefully it will be close at halftime and I can ride them in the second half.

Still playing

Last week was devastating. I had a 5 unit ML play and a 5 unit teaser all tied to the Washington Redskins beating Buffalo, but Joe Gibbs and Jason Campbell found a way to F it up.

Jason Campbell ( Aka butterfingers) fumbles at least once a game, and still throws picks in that screen pass offense he runs. The entire game Soloman Wilcots was sucking him off, talking about how good Campbell has looked all year and the booth was basically rooting for the Redskins. After Trent Edwards marched down the field and won the game, the announcers sounded dejected. Campbell in year 3 doesn't impress me... Edwards in year 1 looks like he COULD be the answer in Buffalo because Losman certainly isn't.

I did also end up losing a measly 1 unit on the Colts/Redskins straight up as well, but that doesn't bother me.

My futures on Seattle/Tampa instantly went from 50/1, to 40/1 and 35/1 within a week! How do you like that value? Not only are they appreciating, but Seattle plays their last tough game this week, and Tampas schedule is a joke. Both teams should be hosting a playoff game in a weak NFC where anything can happen.

Rams @ Cincy -9.5 ( 1 unit)

Are you kidding me? Brock Berlin might be starting. The Rams injury list is a freaking joke. There defense actually has improved some ( their talent level isn't pure crap), but they do give up the big plays. The team is known to crap the bed on the road and outdoors. They only average 11 points on the road and 6.5 on the field turf. Not only that but their defense gives up 25 ppg on the road. Even if Bulger plays, how well will he play with that concussion? Do you expect the Bengals to go easy on him? Brock Berlin is not NFL material and I hope he proves it today.

I had to laugh though, I was watching the Seahawks/Rams game and JC Pearman the dumb announcer was talking about how Torry Holt and Issac Bruce weren't fast, were old, not that good anymore and that the Rams needed some young fresh legs that could stretch the defense. Are you kidding me? Look, they aren't the best WR tandem ever, but how many teams have better? How many quarterbacks would kill to have Hold/Bruce/Bennett? JC Pearman starts talking college football ( he doesn't even know pro) and every week he is arguing that Oregon, or Missouri or some other team deserves to be in the title game. He argues they are underrated and deserve it, and then they lose.

On the other side I have Carson Palmer. I haven't bet the Bengals very often because of their piss poor defense and coaching staff, but if Brock Berlin is indeed getting the start, that makes me feel a lot better. Getting back Rudi and Chris Henery should give Carson some weapons, and the Bengals have a "smart offense" that can execute and make big plays on the Rams mistake-laden defense.

I like the Seahawks -7 as well and I think they would make a good teaser with the Bengals but I want to lay off the Teasers today.

I also think the Pats will cover later and I might go Indy. I want to see how this first game goes. I'd rather pick the low hanging fruit first ( especially after last week).

I know I pissed away a lot of winnings the past 2 weeks ( thanks to the Deadskins), but that is nothing compared to the huge NFL futures (110 units) that I would win if the Patriots win the SB as they should.

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Week 13

Last week I showed my NFL futures this week I peeked into what's out there now ...
AFC Odds to win ( possible playoff position)/ NFC Odds to win ( possible playoff position)
1. Pats < 1 ....................1. Dal 5/1
2. Colts 7/1 ..................2. GB 12/1
3. Pitt 15/1 ..................3. SEA 50/1
4. SD 22/1 ...................4. TB 50/1
5. Jax 38/1 ..................5. NY 70/1
6. Cle 30/1 ...................6 Det 100/1
~ Tenn 100/1............. ~ Eagles 85/1
.......................................~ ARI 100/1
.......................................~ Wash 200/1

A few weeks ago I was looking at the 7/1 odds for Jax to win the NFC South and I wish I took them. That would set up a nice hedging opportunity for this weeks NFC South show down. The Colts should still win the South, but I don't think people realize they are only 1 game up on the Jags and that could change after this week...

I see really strong value in the Seahawks at 50/1 and the Bucs at 50/1.

Bucs remaining schedule...
@ NO
@ Hou
@ SF
- You have got to like for them to go at LEAST 3-2 in that stretch, and if the beat the Saints in the big easy this weekend, they have a chance to run the table on that schedule. I think 3-2 and 4-1 are more likely though. That Puts the Bucs at about 10 or 11 wins and a first round bye.

Seattle remaining schedule...
@ Phi
@ Car
@ Atl
- The big game is obviously the show down vs Arizona but it as at home. Those wins aren't guaranteed, but they could put up a 4-1 or 3-2 record like Tampa Can ( although I do like Tampa's schedule better). The Hawks should get a home game.

The significance of Tampa and Seattle winning their divisions is that it guarantees them home games. Tampa and Seattle are both 5-1 at home and they will possibly be facing the Giants and Lions. Tampa's home field advantage is that they won't be on the road in a cold city, and Seattle has one of the best home field advantages in football with the long travel and loud stadium.

Now back to the value. If Tampa and Seattle both get to the 2nd round of the playoffs then I can start the hedging 50/1 odds. I do think Dallas is the best team in the NFC and that they will win, but the NFC can be very unpredictable. Seattle is two years removed from the Super Bowl and has playoff experience, and Jon Gruden is a former Super Bowl champion that excels in exploiting match ups. If Tampa or Seattle were to say upset Green Bay, that would put me in real good position considering I like my Pats futures on the other side.

I do like Dallas to win the NFC, but I don't see value at 5/1. Even if they did win the NFC, they would still have to win the SB and I don't think that would happen. What would a Dallas/NE super bowl be? Do you really think that buying them +500 now is smart when their odds could be similar in the big game? There isn't much value there because too much can go wrong until that time and the odds wouldn't likely change that much. However Seattle and Tampa at 50/1 I do see value in. It wouldn't shock the heck out of me to see Seattle make a run in what could be Holmgrens last year. It also wouldn't shock me to see Tampa and that defense upset the Gunslinger Favre and get into the NFC title game. Even though I don't think either team will win the Super Bowl ( and probably not even the NFC championship), I see these odds as out of wack and they give me a good hedging opportunity.

Week 13
2 units on Seattle Seahawks futures to win the Super Bowl, Payout of 150 Units
2 units on Tampa Bay futures to win the Super Bowl. Payout of 150 units
Buffalo @ Washington -6 ( 1 unit)
Jax @ Indy -7 ( 1 unit)
Buffalo @ Washington ML ( 5 units)
Tease/ Buffalo @ Washington (pick)/ Jax @ Indy ( 5 units)

It basically comes down to two plays.
I am betting on the Redskins following the tragic death of teammate Sean Taylor. Now I am not really a Redskins fan, but I always loved to watch Taylor play. There are certain people that you respect out there, and Sean Taylor and Marcus Washington are two Redskins I always respected. Sean Taylor had so much talent and was such a force on the field that as a football fan you had to respect that. He was just voted the hardest hitter in the NFL before his tragic death.

When something like this happens you have to view these NFC players as human beings. It is such a shame that a few thugs had to take this 24 year olds life. It looks like the authorities already have made 4 arrests and hopefully they can punish those that committed this selfish act.

Sean Taylor meant so much to his teammates and I do believe they will play their hardest to dedicate this game to him. You can throw out traditional handicap metrics as you can't put a price on that. These guys LOVED him and they want to HONOR him this sunday.

Buffalo will be without their two top running backs against a motivated Washington defense. That means there will be added pressure on JP Losman who can't handle pressure well in the first place. Losman is a bad mobile quarterback and I am sure Greg Williams will have added focus on what seems to be his lone target, Lee Evans. I love the fact that Losman will have to be throwing a lot this game into that Redskins secondary.

On the other side of the ball I see the Redskins sticking to the run game. Gibbs opened it up the last few weeks and Campbell lost all 3 starts. The weather could be a factor, and Gibbs might go back into his Conservative shell again where Campbell is reduced to that dink and dunk offense with a few timely deep balls.

- Indy is still underrated at home. They have lost at home once in how long? Even in that Patriots Loss they still covered the spread. Peyton and the Boys are actually underrated at home, where they might be a little overrated on the road.
- We all know the Colts have their injuries, but so do the Jags. Stroud and Mike Peterson are out, and Rasheen Mathis could be playing gimpy.
- This is a big game, with a playoff like atmosphere and I think the Colts will step up and rise to the challenge. The Jags being hurt at 3 key positions on their defense could allow Indy to bust out of their funk for a key win.

Week 13 Card
Seattle SB Futures 2 units
Tampa SB Futures 2 units
Wash -6 ( 1 unit)
Indy -7 ( 1 unit)
Wash ML ( 5 units)
Wash/Indy Teaser (5 units)


Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Week 7 1-2-0 ATS. 0-0 ML -1 unit
Week 8 3-0-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 9 units
Week 9 3-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 10 5-2-0 ATS, 0-1 ML +4 units
Week 11 4-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 3 units
Week 12 3-8-0 ATS, 0-0 ML -8 units
Season = +17.25 units

Pending Futures:
Eagles to win SB 42, 12.5 units to win 450 Units ( 35/1 odds)
Patriots to win SB 42, 2.5 units to win 32.5 Units ( 12/1 odds)
Patriots to win SB 42, 11 units to win to win 110 Units ( 10/1 odds)

Week 12 Recap
Green Bay -3.5 @ Detroit ( 1 unit) WIN
Jets @ Dallas -13 ( 1 unit) WIN
Indy @ Atlanta +13 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Minny @ New York Giants -7 ( 2 units) LOSS
Deadskins +3 @ Bucs ( 2 units) LOSS
49ers @ Arizona -10 ( 2 units, bought half point) LOSS
ADD: Tennesse -1.5 2nd half ( 1 unit) -105 LOSS
ADD: Houston Pick'em 2nd half ( 1 unit) +105 LOSS
ADD: New York Giants -7.5 2nd half ( 1 unit) LOSS
ADD: Deadskins -.5 2nd half ( 1 unit) WIN
ADD New England Patriots -24 for (1 unit) LOSS
Total = 3-8 ATS for -8 units

Week 12 was my worst week as far as winning percentage and Units lost. The bright side is that I was playing with house money while the downside is that I wiped away about 1/3 of this seasons gains. The important thing to remember is that if you have been doing this long enough, you are going to have bad weeks from time to time. I was only losing in increments of 1 and 2 units which cushioned my off week. Money management should always be something in the back of your mind and even though I lost this battle, I am still winning the war. This week I also added my two huge NFL futures plays to my picks which illustrate the huge opportunity to make money off the Pats.

- Is a direct snap to Clinton Portis always a run left?
- Jason Campbell with the fumble, it seems like he is good for at least 1 per game. He seems to be mechanical in his delivery and it reminds me of Byron Leftwhich although he isn't nearly as slow as Byron ( but I get that same feel). Check out the snap or quick delivery of say a Tony Romo or even Jeff Garcia in this game, and then look at the mechanical delivery of Campbell.
- Joe Gibbs wastes a challenge on a wish.
- There was a key 4th and 1 play at the Bucs Goal line where in the huddle I noticed Jason Campbell tapped Clinton Portis on the helmet. The significance of that was that Portis was the one who got the ball on 4th and 1, and he was stuffed. Did Campbell tip the play off so that the Bucs could easily tee off on Portis?
- Washington had a lot of turnovers. How come when Eli Manning throws 4 picks and the Giants lose, people question his worth, but Jason Campbell had 3 turnovers this game ( including 2 key 4th quarter interceptions) and he gets a pass? Eli could have 4 turnovers and people talk about how he lost the game, but Campbell have 3 turnovers and people talk about how "well" he played? Media Bias right there.
- Jason Campbell has failed to lead his team down the field for the game winning score in each of their last 3 games, and he even failed 6 times ( because of 2 chances in each game). How come people don't call him a choke artist?

- On the second play of the game, the Giants had 8 in the box and the Vikings ran a play action pass. Tavaras Jackson ran a terrible play fake, but the Vikings had Sidney Rice 1 on 1 with Aaron Ross on the outside and got a 60 yard touchdown. I'd also like to point out that the sun was real bright on that side of the field, and Ross possibly lost the ball.
- Tavaras Jackson fumbles on a 3rd down sack by Osi but the ball fell forward and the Vikings got a 1st down. How often does a sack/fumble result in a 1st down?
- Sinorice Moss drops a pass on 3rd and 5 and the Giants for for it on 4th down and don't get it. Amani Toomer ran the jet route instead of running the drag ( did he run the wrong route?) The Giants looked out of sync and it's not all Eli's fault.
- The Giants ran a lot of 8 man fronts on defense, but the Vikings kept running. Childress probably didn't want Jackson throwing the ball too often even if running the ball meant unfavorable 8 man fronts.

- OK, Eli Manning got a lot of criticism for this game, but it was NOT all his fault. The Vikings brought a lot of pressure in this game and the Giants were missing their 1st and 2nd string runners ( and Droughns was ineffective), and Burress was gimpy.

- The Main problems I saw were Pressure, and not being on the same page.
- In this game I saw 6 dropped balls by the Giants which is a little high ( I'd expect in a normal game a team drops maybe 4 or 5 balls). There was one other pass Droughnes might have been able to catch, but it was more of a quick throw due to the pressure right in Eli's face. I also saw 5 passes that Eli threw away due to avoiding a sack ( he was only sacked once). The media also presented the stats that there were 15 hits/hurries. David Diehl also didn't help with 3 penalties.

So Let's recap...
5 Drops
5 throw aways, 1 that was sort of both
plus 15 hits/hurries
ONLY 1 sack

Eli was hurried all day. He had 15 hits/hurries, which led to the 5 throw aways. This is where I have a problem with QB rating. If Eli throws the ball away to avoid a sack, but say Kurt Warner holds onto the ball all 5 times he loses yardage but also doesn't have 0/5 completions added to his QB rating. Not only that but a lot of the drops Eli had were deeper balls and on key downs. The Giants had no threat of a running game with Reuben, and the Vikings teed off on Eli all game. Those problems were NOT all his fault.

He ended up throwing 4 interceptions. Three were his fault, and one ball was tipped at the line at about a 45 degree angle right to a Vikings defender.

I don't understand how Eli could have 4 turnover and be Ryan Leaf, while Jason Campbell could have 3 turnovers and be " a promising young player" after the game. Tony Romo had the 5 pick day in Buffalo, Peyton had his 5 pick game in San Diego, but when Eli throws 4 picks he is the worst player ever.

I can promise you that Eli was playing under tough circumstances. 15 hits/hurries is no joke, and for him to only get sacked once shows that he made a lot of snap quick decisions. Not only that be Reuben Droughns disappeared after the first drive and Eli was stuck in a lot of long yardage situations.

If you can't tell, it pisses me off when people write off Eli, but then hype up a Jason Campbell and his dink and dunk offense and late game turnovers.

- I am surprised with the 3 touchdowns and big stats by AJ Feeley ( even with the 3 picks). It wasn't all dink and dunk yards either. I know people will talk about a controversy in Philly, but Feeley is the backup. I'd say that Feeley is a quality backup, but not starting material for the longer term. He is like that 5th starting pitcher in baseball, he isn't your ace, but he can make some quality starts from time to time. He is too good to be discarded, but some team without a quarterback ( like Miami) shouldn't trade for him ( again).
- What is with the Keith Olberman "worst person in the NFL?" I vote for Keith Olberman as the worst person in the NFL. How tough is it to sit there and second guess everybody and then pick in the Broncos punter? Olberman second guessing everybody fits into that NBC studio well with the king of the charlatans, Chris Collinsworth.
- Tom Brady reminds me of Alex Rodriguez in his work ethic. After A-Rod signed his 252 million dollar contract with the Rangers, some of his friends wanted to party and celebrate but he said that he needed to work even harder now so that he could live up to that contract ( where as most athletes would get fat and happy). Tom Brady has everything going for him but he is still a perfectionist. At this point in time his fans "expect" nothing other than the best. In the Pats/Skins game earlier in the year Brady was yelling at his teammates after a failed series in a game they were winning in blowout fashion. This guy wants to win.
I also remember last year people ( Dan Patrick in particular) were saying the Patriots were "done" etc. or that they were good but not "going to win the championship". Brady said that he was sick and tired of his team being disrespected. Dan Patrick fired back on his show that nobody is disrespecting the Pats, but that they " aren't championship material anymore". That is Exactly disrespecting to Tom Brady. He wants to win every game, score on every play, and dominate his opponent. There is no such thing as second place. He studies, he fights, he rallies and hates to lose. When somebody calls them " just" a playoff team of course he feels disrespected...
Tom Brady is a winner and somebody you want manageing your team.
- The Pats were heavy favorites in this game and with each tick of the clock it gave the Eagles more confidence, and put more pressure on the Patriots. I am impressed again with how cool under pressure Brady was in such a tight game with such high expectations. Those fans would have been stunned/pissed if the Pats lost, and a poised Brady made sure that didn't happen.

Pats/Bills ( 2 weeks ago)
- Losman was picked off early on a ball he never should have thrown ( no surprise). The WR ran a fake and then quit on the route and Randal Gay kept with the play.
- L. Mahroney had his 1st TD of the year which is a surprise considering he is the starting running back for this prolific Pats offense. I do like Lawrence, as he reminds me of a poor mans Steven Jackson with his size, speed, and shiftiness.
- The timing on the Pats safety blitzes just amazes me, they are also showing lots of different looks in their back 7.
- Donte Stallworth had a bad drop. Now with the Pats a drop doesn't matter because then Brady will put the ball where it needs to be on the very next play, but if Stallworth played for the Falcons everybody would talk about how Mike Vick has no receivers and they drop all the balls. If you play for the Pats and drop one, you are fine because you will catch the other dozen or so accurately thrown your way, but when you play for Mike Vick and drop the only good ball thrown at you that is a problem. Not only that, but getting lots of balls thrown your way gets you into a rhythm, while having one bone thrown your way a game makes it harder to focus. Bad quarterbacks always have the excuse of poor receivers, when in fact they are a big part of the equation ( I know this is obvious but it is very important).
- Randy Moss drops a perfect pass and then catches a touchdown on the very next play... in stride with the previous comment.
- Amazing stree ball play where Losman fumbles and then picks the ball up for a 14 yard gain. Fans love those cool 14 yard quarterback rushes, but can this guy make the routine plays? A 14 yard run that Tom Brady couldn't even make might seem like a "bonus", but not being able to make all those throws makes it not even worth it. It's something so obvious but fans just go nuts when they see a mobile quarterback.
- This game looked like a JV team vs the Varsity team. If you look at the lineups, the Patriots are honestly better at every single position on the field, all the way from quarterback down to punter. The Positions the Bills might have an edge in ( Left Guard with Dockery, the Pats have stud Logan Mankins or WR with Evans ( the Pats have Moss). The only position I think the Bills might be better at is Kick Return man with Terence McGee.
- Randy Moss had 4 touchdowns in the first half... amazing
- Many team on a week to week basis " could" play better but they don't. The Pats have been playing like their fans would want them to every week. It is harder than it sounds.

SD/Jax ( weeks ago)
- It was a fun game to watch between two playoff teams.
- I still maintain that Phillip Rivers is overrated, remember he made the playoffs last year instead of Tom Brady. Rivers was commanding a super talented Chargers team that last year had the best O-Line in football, the best running back, the best tight end, and maybe the best defense. I saw Rivers as more of a game manager and I wasn't sold on him.
- There was a big hit in this game by Jags rookie safety Reggie Nelson. Reggie crushed the Chargers receiver in a violent hit where he looked to have led with his helmet. After the play Reggie started celebrating with the Florida Gators chomp and the Refs threw the 15 yard unnecessary roughness flag. Replays showed that Nelson led with his shoulder, and the announcers said it was an incorrect call.... It was a bad call but that play happened so fast and it is such a bang bang decision. When I saw the hit live I agreed with the refs that it looked like an illegal helmet to helmet hit, but slow motion replays showed the Reggie led with his shoulder.

I have come around to say that MOST refs are actually pretty good ( except for a few select games ( Pittsburgh/Seattle SB)). There are usually a few bad calls a game, but over the hundreds of possible calls a few bad ones are expected. I think the NFL refs actually do a damn good job. I also think that if Reggie didn't start celebrating after that hit, that they probably wouldn't have flagged him.

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