Saturday, December 01, 2007

Week 13

Last week I showed my NFL futures this week I peeked into what's out there now ...
AFC Odds to win ( possible playoff position)/ NFC Odds to win ( possible playoff position)
1. Pats < 1 ....................1. Dal 5/1
2. Colts 7/1 ..................2. GB 12/1
3. Pitt 15/1 ..................3. SEA 50/1
4. SD 22/1 ...................4. TB 50/1
5. Jax 38/1 ..................5. NY 70/1
6. Cle 30/1 ...................6 Det 100/1
~ Tenn 100/1............. ~ Eagles 85/1
.......................................~ ARI 100/1
.......................................~ Wash 200/1

A few weeks ago I was looking at the 7/1 odds for Jax to win the NFC South and I wish I took them. That would set up a nice hedging opportunity for this weeks NFC South show down. The Colts should still win the South, but I don't think people realize they are only 1 game up on the Jags and that could change after this week...

I see really strong value in the Seahawks at 50/1 and the Bucs at 50/1.

Bucs remaining schedule...
@ NO
@ Hou
@ SF
- You have got to like for them to go at LEAST 3-2 in that stretch, and if the beat the Saints in the big easy this weekend, they have a chance to run the table on that schedule. I think 3-2 and 4-1 are more likely though. That Puts the Bucs at about 10 or 11 wins and a first round bye.

Seattle remaining schedule...
@ Phi
@ Car
@ Atl
- The big game is obviously the show down vs Arizona but it as at home. Those wins aren't guaranteed, but they could put up a 4-1 or 3-2 record like Tampa Can ( although I do like Tampa's schedule better). The Hawks should get a home game.

The significance of Tampa and Seattle winning their divisions is that it guarantees them home games. Tampa and Seattle are both 5-1 at home and they will possibly be facing the Giants and Lions. Tampa's home field advantage is that they won't be on the road in a cold city, and Seattle has one of the best home field advantages in football with the long travel and loud stadium.

Now back to the value. If Tampa and Seattle both get to the 2nd round of the playoffs then I can start the hedging 50/1 odds. I do think Dallas is the best team in the NFC and that they will win, but the NFC can be very unpredictable. Seattle is two years removed from the Super Bowl and has playoff experience, and Jon Gruden is a former Super Bowl champion that excels in exploiting match ups. If Tampa or Seattle were to say upset Green Bay, that would put me in real good position considering I like my Pats futures on the other side.

I do like Dallas to win the NFC, but I don't see value at 5/1. Even if they did win the NFC, they would still have to win the SB and I don't think that would happen. What would a Dallas/NE super bowl be? Do you really think that buying them +500 now is smart when their odds could be similar in the big game? There isn't much value there because too much can go wrong until that time and the odds wouldn't likely change that much. However Seattle and Tampa at 50/1 I do see value in. It wouldn't shock the heck out of me to see Seattle make a run in what could be Holmgrens last year. It also wouldn't shock me to see Tampa and that defense upset the Gunslinger Favre and get into the NFC title game. Even though I don't think either team will win the Super Bowl ( and probably not even the NFC championship), I see these odds as out of wack and they give me a good hedging opportunity.

Week 13
2 units on Seattle Seahawks futures to win the Super Bowl, Payout of 150 Units
2 units on Tampa Bay futures to win the Super Bowl. Payout of 150 units
Buffalo @ Washington -6 ( 1 unit)
Jax @ Indy -7 ( 1 unit)
Buffalo @ Washington ML ( 5 units)
Tease/ Buffalo @ Washington (pick)/ Jax @ Indy ( 5 units)

It basically comes down to two plays.
I am betting on the Redskins following the tragic death of teammate Sean Taylor. Now I am not really a Redskins fan, but I always loved to watch Taylor play. There are certain people that you respect out there, and Sean Taylor and Marcus Washington are two Redskins I always respected. Sean Taylor had so much talent and was such a force on the field that as a football fan you had to respect that. He was just voted the hardest hitter in the NFL before his tragic death.

When something like this happens you have to view these NFC players as human beings. It is such a shame that a few thugs had to take this 24 year olds life. It looks like the authorities already have made 4 arrests and hopefully they can punish those that committed this selfish act.

Sean Taylor meant so much to his teammates and I do believe they will play their hardest to dedicate this game to him. You can throw out traditional handicap metrics as you can't put a price on that. These guys LOVED him and they want to HONOR him this sunday.

Buffalo will be without their two top running backs against a motivated Washington defense. That means there will be added pressure on JP Losman who can't handle pressure well in the first place. Losman is a bad mobile quarterback and I am sure Greg Williams will have added focus on what seems to be his lone target, Lee Evans. I love the fact that Losman will have to be throwing a lot this game into that Redskins secondary.

On the other side of the ball I see the Redskins sticking to the run game. Gibbs opened it up the last few weeks and Campbell lost all 3 starts. The weather could be a factor, and Gibbs might go back into his Conservative shell again where Campbell is reduced to that dink and dunk offense with a few timely deep balls.

- Indy is still underrated at home. They have lost at home once in how long? Even in that Patriots Loss they still covered the spread. Peyton and the Boys are actually underrated at home, where they might be a little overrated on the road.
- We all know the Colts have their injuries, but so do the Jags. Stroud and Mike Peterson are out, and Rasheen Mathis could be playing gimpy.
- This is a big game, with a playoff like atmosphere and I think the Colts will step up and rise to the challenge. The Jags being hurt at 3 key positions on their defense could allow Indy to bust out of their funk for a key win.

Week 13 Card
Seattle SB Futures 2 units
Tampa SB Futures 2 units
Wash -6 ( 1 unit)
Indy -7 ( 1 unit)
Wash ML ( 5 units)
Wash/Indy Teaser (5 units)

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