Sunday, December 31, 2006

I am glad the 49ers upset Denver

I am glad the 49ers upset Denver because I believe KC can go into Indianapolis and beat the colts...

- Trent Green is a good veteran QB who shouldn't make those killer dumb mistakes. He also should have poise on the road.
- LJ is good for 150+ yards. He could potentially have a 40 carry 220 yard performance against the colts poor rush D. LJ is big, fast, strong, and has great vision. Like I said, if it weren't for such a great year by LT, everybody would be talking about LJ.
- Herman loves ball control and should help keep Manning off the field.
- the Chiefs have a good veteran secondary led by Ty Law and Patric Surtan ( former pro bowlers).

That was my first instincts when I watched the 49ers go into Denver and win. Much to come later.

What a moose job in Indianapolis.

Despite a great day, winning 12 units, I have to complain about the moose job in Indianapolis.

The moose sighting in Indianapolis recap.

It's 3rd and 3 and the colts are trying to get the first down and close out a 12 point lead.

-Joseph Addai fumbles the football.
- Jason Taylor picks it up and gets some yardage on the return

- Then we have Mrs. Cleo Lemon throw the ball into triple coverage and Chris Chamblers makes the catch. Even Phill Simms the announcer points out that usually as a quarterback you do NOT want to make that throw. In Lemon's case, he gets lucky.

- The Dolphins turn out to get a touchdown, cutting that 12 point lead down to 5.

I was flipping through the 4PM games, but each time I watched this game I was amazed at how crappy Cleo Lemon looked.

Even on that final drive. He completed 1 ball into triple coverage, but 2 of the other throws were out of bounds ( intended for receivers), and even his hail mary at the end didn't even land in the field of play. Of the only 3 passes I saw Cleo complete, two were in triple coverage, but the other throws weren't even close.

Tommorow I will try and recap my bets and look towards the playoffs. I want to recap my NFL futures bets I had.

I love mobile quarterbacks

I love mobile quarterbacks because network television hypes them up to the high heavens and they are such a great fade!

If you never watched a game, but only watched ESPN, you would think that Vince Young is the greatest quarterback of all-time. He can run, he can throw, and he " just wins".

Well I won 7.5 units on the pats because they play this boring offense with their immobile quarterback with a noodle arm. Vince Young played against a good defense and didn't score a touchdown until 1 minute left in the 4th quarter.

In the Chiefs game, the very mobile David Garrard practically gift wrapped the win with a really stupid interception to Ty Law on a screen pass. The Jags have to run about the most boring, conservative, predictable offense I have ever seen.

I am starting to really not like the Jags. Their offense is boring as shit and their defense takes all kinds of cheap shots. Paul Spicer laid a very cheap shot on Trent Green well after he threw a pass (I'd expect a hefty fine on that play). Last week against the Pats, the Jags linebacker speared Tom Brady right in the back. I can't believe he led with his head and wasn't fined. I think Jack Del Rio is a very good defensive coach, but they run such a boring conservative offense.

I also bet on the Steelers and won. I figured to fade the " win and your in" scenario. It was a contest between two pretty evenly matched teams, and the Bengals should have been about 3 point favorites at home. Instead, the Bengals were laying 6 big points in this contest because of heavy public betting.

It was a painful game to watch because every 7 seconds Soloman Wilcots kept talking about the mobility of Big Ben or Carson. I can't believe that goofball gets to call games. Does he even watch the other 20 players on the field, or does he just watch the quarterbacks legs? What a joke.

The final game that I did NOT bet on was the Rams. I wasn't sure I wanted to bet with the public on the rams and I laid off. Tavaras Jackson's Vikings got blown out at home to end their season. If you listen to the announcers you would think Jackson is Michael Vick or something.

New England +3.5 ( 5 units)
New England -3.5 ( 2.5 units)
KC Chiefs -1 ( 4 units) I ate a lot of juice on this one
Pittsburgh Steelers +6 ( 1 unit)

Total = 13 units

I still have the Colts -9 pending for 1 unit as well.

This has to be the best week I have had the entire year of betting. The only regret I have is not taking the other alternative line on the Patriots at -7.5 for +455. Even a 1 unit bet could have been an additional 4 units and change. I loved the Chiefs and Pats today. Vince Young was no match for a formidable defense and the only reason the Titans hung around for a while was because of a punt return touchdown.

Week 17 Card

New England Pats +3.5 ( 5 units)
KC Chiefs -1 ( 5 units)
Blitzburgh Steelers +6 ( 1 unit)
Indianapolis Colts -9 ( 1 unit)
New England Patriots NFL Alternative Low bet at pinny, Pats -3.5 ( 1 unit to win 2.5 units)

If the Pats win ( and I think they do, they probably win by more than a FG and more than double that unit bet).

I love the Pats and chiefs to win, and one is a 1 point favorite and the other is a dog. The Steelers are good value at +6, and Cleo Lemon is garbage. If the Colts were only to stack the box and try and stop the run. Freeney might not play and I actually like that ( he is horrible against the run).

I am still thinking of adding the Rams, but the public likes the rams too. I think if the Rams lose it will be the Rams Losing the game, and not the Vikings WINNING the game. Minny's defnese has some ballas and that is very possible.

Happy New year.

Saturday, December 30, 2006

Saturday night game

I love how the announcers were sucking Jason Campbell off. They act like he was marching his team downfield with awsome passes and a high flying offense. The redskins were running the ball and the only passes I saw him complete were dump offs and screens ( just like Brunell). The only time he really threw the ball over 10 yards was a couple of times he had 1 on 1 coverage on the outside and a max protect backfield so he didn't have to worry about the pass rush. At the end of the game he had to throw the ball over 10 yards and he failed. The Redskins quarterbacks ( Brunell and Campbell) sure did pad their stats this year with the 5 yard screen passes to Randel El, Moss, Cooley, or the runningbacks that turned into 20, 40 or occasionally 80 yards. It must be real nice to throw the ball 2-5 yards and get credit for a 40 yard completion.

If the Redskins are going to try and win a title with a " game manager" at quarterback they will have to build a stout defense. The defense has literally no depth ( they pissed away about 10 draft picks in the past 3-5 years that could have been depth), and the redskins don't even have much star power. The most important chess piece of a defense is a solid pass rush and the redskins aren't even close to haveing solid pass rushing ends.

The redskins are in the worst salary cap shape out of any NFL team and don't have a full set of draft picks. I honestly think that Gibbs will retire before they can build this team back up. They will have to eventually rip this team apart again when Gibbs replacement comes in. The best case scenerio is that Saunders of Greg Williams take over but there is a lot of talk about internal bickering over personel.

Back to the original point, So the redskins and that convervative offense scored some points on the Giants and their conservative prevent defense. Of course the announcers had to suck Jason Campbell off because that is their nature.

The game ball goes to Tiki Barber who pissed all over the redskins. The guy averaged a first down per carry and ran for over 200 yards. Not only did he pad his stats, but he had game changing runs in clutch time.

I think after Tiki retires the Giants will be tempted to use their first round draft pick on a runningback. I think a perfect fit for the Giants would be sign say Marshall Faulk to split time with Brandon Jacobs.

Faulk would be a cheap fit, and plays with a similar style as Barber. Most teams would shy away from an older player like Faulk, but what makes him good is good vision, patience, and receiving ability. The Giants could probably even sign a or draft a 3rd runningback for cheap as well. Have Faulk as a good 3rd down type, Jacobs as a good goaline type, and maybe try and draft an all purpose back in the later rounds. I think either Faulk or Jacobs COULD be the starter, but I'd rather have the Giants use their draft picks on defense.

I honestly can't watch NFL Network

Chris Collinsworth has no idea what he is talking about. He never makes a statement BEFORE the play, he always makes a statement AFTER the play ( they shouldn't have done this or that). Then he starts talking about the players and it's obvious he isn't in touch with what is going on. After the players prove his comments wrong, then he starts bashing the losing team.

Bryant Gumbel is an absolute joke as well. He doesn't act like other announcers in that they describe what just happened. Al Michaels would say something like, ( Ladell Betts runs a sweep to the left and is tackled by number 22 Sam Madsion). Bryand Gumbel has no clue what is going on and calls the game clock the shot clock.

I honestly view the NFL network as the little brother of sports networks. The sound isn't right and the announcers are terrible. I would mute the sound to the game but I almost find it kind of funny to hear two idiots call a game. I honestly think a bunch of college kids in media 101 could call a better game.

I love how Collinsworth made a comment about " the Redskins are probably better off with Brunell as opposed to Campbell" and Bryant Gumbell angrily fired back real quick " why".

Collinsworth said that the different styles mean that the Giants " aren't ready for Brunell". What the hell is that supposed to mean? It's not like Brunell is Mike Vick, and Campbell is Peyton Manning or anything. They are both average at best at playing quarterback.

My question is why does everybody say that Campbell " add mobility". Mark Brunell is a hell of a lot more mobile than Campbell. I think since Jason Campbell and Tavaras Jackson " look" mobile that people " think" they are mobile. That is a mistake I could expect the average fan to make, but Collinsworth and Gumbel are professionals and they are horrible. I honestly think they add nothing to the game cast that the average fan couldn't see.

Bryant Gumbell snapped back at Collinsworth that " Campbell is more mobile". How the hell would he know that? Bryant doesn't even know half of these players last names. He calls Frank Gore Al Gore and so on. Not only is Brunell faster, but he has better pocket awareness and tries to avoid the rush. Campbell is a bigger guy and would be physically harder to tackle, but he isn't more mobile than Brunell. Mobility is the most overrated attribute for quarterbacks.

What "mobile" quarterbacks are worth a damn?

Do people call Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer mobile? Donovan Mcnabb is mobile and good, but even Donovan thinks pass first and then run.

Do you think Mike Mexico will ever win a Superbowl in Atlanta? That guy is supposed to operate a west coast offense and he can't even complete half his passes. What about Tavaras Jackson and his 50 passing yards?

How about a mobile Jake Plummer that got pulled for rookie Jay Cutler that didn't even "expect" to play? Jake the fake took his team to the AFC championship last year but even his coach knew that the bird brained "mobile" Jake the Fake wasn't worth a damn.

These mobile guys never win Superbowl's because they are playing guys that are TRYING to play quarterback and run REAL offense and can't. Eventually though the mobile guys get into the playoffs and have to play quarterbacks that run REAL offenses and CAN.

Week 17

You will have to believe that last week I bet the Jets when Cleo Lemon was tossed into the lineup for Miami. It canceled out my Fins bet.

Cleo Lemon is complete and utter garbage. He was an instant fade of my bet when I heard he was coming into the game for a "spark". His stats weren't bad, but what do you expect for a guy dumping the ball off ( he wasn't even very good at that). One of his first passes was thrown right to a New York Jet but was dropped.

This week I am liking the Steelers, Chiefs, Pats, Colts, Rams and Cowboys. In General at this time of the year I think the public goes ape shit all over the possible playoff teams that " need to win to get in". The public will pound a team like the Jets or Bengals because they " need to win to get in". I generally like to fade whatever the public does. You can probably blindly fade that situation and make money.

Here are some angles I like this week...

Steelers - 6 points is a lot against a Bengals team that is pretty much done. I am not sure the Jets cover 13 on the Raiders, but they really SHOULD beat the second worst team in football at home. That means the Bengals should be OUT, and they are laying 6 points is a pretty big rivalry. I think the Steelers can win outright, and getting 6 is gravy.
Chiefs - The Chiefs at home in December won 19 games in a row before the Ravens beat them a few weeks ago. This is almost 10 years, with different players, coaches and even opponents. The one constant is the crazy fans and good football tradition. If it weren't for LT, ESPN would be touting LJ. I also still believe in Trent Green. The Chiefs are also playing at home for the first time since Lamar Hunt died, look for some emotion from the Chiefs.

I however do NOT believe in David Garrard. He single hand idly lost the game against the Titans with 3 turnovers that were instantly 21 points. Bone headed would be an understatement.

As much as I don't like Garrard, I still think he is better than Byron Leftwhich. In the situation of Mobility vs pocket passing I will pretty much always side with the better passer ( whoever that may be). In this case I side with Garrard. All Byron really does is just dump balls off, and throw the occasional jump ball to one of his tall receivers. If all he is going to do is just manage a game like that, you may as well have Garrard ( who can do all of that AND run).

Pats- I like the Pats at the end of the year, and I think this is one of the better defenses Vince Young will have played against. So far he has had but average numbers against these crappy defenses... Colts, Texans, injured Giants, Bills, and the Eagles when they were slumping. When VY played Jacksonville his Titans didn't even score an offensive touchdown, but they won because of David Garrard and his mistakes. Brady won't make those terrible mistakes.

Brady should be able to move the Pats on offense, and Young may be exciting, but he is over matched. Give me the better team and the 3 points.

Colts- The Colts are still undefeated at home, and the Fins still aren't a good road team. I am aware the Fins can play D, but Peyton can put up more points. I am really not worried about the colts scoring points.

I think Cleo Lemon is complete and utter garbage, and it is a shame that I have to watch him play. I don't even think "Mrs. Cleo" would start for many top 15 college teams. If Ronnie were completely healthy, the fins could just hand the ball off and score points. I don't know if the Dolphins run game alone will be enough. The Colts should be able outscore Miami by more than a TD and FG.

Rams- It seems a lot of people are pounding the Rams at -2.5.

Once again we have another hyped up mobile quarterback in Tavaras Jackson. Do those 23 rushing yards REALLY add another dimension to those 50 passing yards he had? His team scored 3 offensive points, yet everybody is talking about how his mobility really adds a lot to that Viking offense. Fred Smoot plays corner back and scored more points than Terrible Tavarias.

I even question the guys mobility. Tavaras ran a 4.8 in the combine and yet they still act like the guy is a Jr. Vince Young. How come JP Losman runs a 4.6 or David Carr runs a 4.6 but we aren't talking about how mobile THOSE guys are.

Bulger, Jackson, Holt, and Bruce are clearly the better offense. The Rams are a bad team on the road, but being on the road means playing outside. Against the Vikings a road game means it is still on the carpet.

I wonder why the spread is -2.5 and the only reason I see is because of the Vikings D. I think the odds makers are baiting people to take the Rams because they see the Rams LOSING this game as opposed to the Vikings winning this game. The Vikings have a stout run D, and they have a ball hawk corner back in Antoine Winfield that match up against the Rams. I still lean St. Louie but this game could be a sucker bet.

Dallas is heavy favorites of 13 points but have struggled of late. Romosexual came back down to earth. People thought I was crazy when I said I wouldn't put him in the probowl, but no who is laughing? I agreed with Parcells in that the smily Romo was really dodging bullets. He also had a few extra TD passes inside the 5 yard line that padded his QB rating and stats as well. In the future the boys will probably just hand the ball off to their ATM ( automatic touchdown machine) in Marion Barber.

I think the Lions are the worst overall team in the NFL. Oakland has the worst offense by far ( but an average to decent D). The Lions are just bad all around. The Lions are bad enough to lose this game and help Dallas get back on track. I see a blowout and the Lions to go win less on the road this season. Dallas is the kind of team that loves to pile on the points against trash teams.

My biggest bets will probably be the Chiefs and Pats. The Chiefs Line is at -1 right now, and the Pats are underdogs. Both just need to win outright. I think I will go with smaller bets on the Steelers, colts and Cowboys, but we shall see.

I think I will try and do live betting for the Saturday night game so shoot me an email if you want to bet with me. If you send me your phone number through email, I can even call you each commercial break I make a bet.

Monday, December 25, 2006

Christmas 2

Miami -2.5 ( 1 unit)

Trying to win that money back. I will probably try and play with some Live betting as well.


Dallas -7 ( 1 unit)

Week 16 Recap
chOakland +7 ( -2 units)
New England +3 ( +4 units)
Indy 1st Q ( -2 units)
Rams -1 ( 1 unit)
Lions +7 ( 1 unit)
Seattle 2nd Half ML ( 1 unit)

I am Very confident Dallas wins this game and I was considering putting those 3 units I won on the Dallas ML, but I hope Dallas winning helps them cover.

Philly is playing in their 3rd consecutive road game, and their 3rd consecutive divisonal game. I think Jeff Garcia is getting blown way out of proportion and the Beagles come back to life this week. Dallas has been vulnerable to the deep ball, but Philly's west coast offense is predicated on a shorter inside passing game.

In thier last matchup Jim Johnson brought blitz after blitz which destroyed the statue Bledsoe. I expect the Eagles to not get the same pressure on Romo, and I think Dallas will try and exploit the suspect eagles run D.

I am looking to probably play Miami after the Dallas game as well. The public loves to pound teams that " need a win" for the playoffs, and the Jets are that team. Miami will not lay down in this rivalry game, and they did snap up a win streak at the end of last year. Ronnie Brown is back, and the Dolphins are at home with the better defense.

I like both favorites, and I think they can both win and cover. The Underdogs barked real loud this week, and both favorites winning wouldn't suprise me.

Right now I have Dallas +7 for a unit, and I will probably try and do some live betting as well.

Deangelo Fall?

How the hell was that bum sent to the Pro Bowl?

It is because there are not good statistics to judge a DB by. Since decision is left up to more arbitrary numbers, discrimination takes over. Tackles are NOT a good indicator, and interceptions aren't a reliable stat either. Sometimes picks show how "risky" a corner is. Sometimes a corner with a lot of picks takes more chances. Since we don't have good numbers to crunch, people look at his mouth, media exposure, and rumored speed.

Deangelo made the pro bowl because he runs his mouth. He didn't make the pro bowl because of his play, because Terrel Owens spit in his face and pissed on him for 2 touchdowns in one half. How many other Pro Bowl corners get spit on and pissed on in the same game?

Deangleo street thug Hall didn't do anything about getting disrespected. He has the kind of trash talking attitude that would make you think he would fight back, but he did nothing. It's kind of funny that nobody knew until AFTER the game. After it was all said and done, Hall used the incident as a weapon. He knew the media would latch onto the story. He shifted the focus from Hall getting burned, to poor Deangelo getting spit on. He shifted the focus from How good T.O. is, to how much of an asshole he is.

Antoine Winfield has one of the best games I have seen from a corner this year against Green Bay. The guy was everywhere and is a true play maker. It is sad to say that the players with the biggest mouths ( like hall) get rewarded the most. Minnesota isn't exactly a public team either. If Winfield played for the Bears Defense, or Philly or New York he would be a pro bowler.

Deangelo Hall is another perfect example of how discrimination rules where there are not easily stats that can gauge performance. We can easily check out how many catches a receiver has, rushing yards a running back has, or a Quarterbacks yards per pass, but we know little to nothing about a defensive back.

We used to know little about a defensive lineman until Decan Jones coined the phase " sack". Now we can better quantify a defensive lineman's pass rush abilities.

We still don't have a very good way of judging a defensive back. Deanglo hall is rumored to be very fast ( although I saw TO and the NY Giants burn him), and he talks a lot. People "assume" he is some shut down corner. Deangleo " held" TO to 100 yards last time they played, and he " held" Owens to 2 touchdowns this past game. If all the other corners in the league " held" owens to only 2 touchdowns a game that would equal 32 in a season. If everybody was so mightly to "hold" owens to 100 receiving yards, that would be a 1600 yard season for owens.

Shame on everybody who voted Hall into the Probowl.

Sunday, December 24, 2006


Seattle 2nd half ML +101 ( 1 unit)

All they have to do is NOT lose by 7 or more. Should be a close second half, and I will risk some of the money I won on the birds at home in a close one.


Screw Andrew Walter. That pick in the endzone late in the 4th wasn't supposed to happen. Three field goals and 5 turnovers didn't help either.

Todays picks...
Patriots +3 ( 4 units) - I don't see bouncing back after their last loss in Florida, look for the Pats to be in playoff form.
Colts 1st Quarter -.5 ( 2 units) - The moose could show up late in the game to ruin the 9 point spread, but the colts have outscored the Texans in the 1st quarter in their last 6 games. The colts should look to get a lead early and I love this bet if they win the kickoff. If they don't, Kubiak always has good scripted plays, but I'll stick with the colts on this one. Even if the Texans march and kick a FG to start the game, the Colts should be aggressive early.
Lions +7 ( 1 unit)- The public are pounding the bears, and the Lions are a home dog. Maybe Grossman has a bad game, maybe the Lions slip in the backdoor cover. The Bears D is not the same without Tommy gun Harris, and the Lions won't quit at home for this rivalry game.
Rams -1 ( 1 unit). The line opened at -3 and got shot down to -1. The Saints had a bad game last week, and the redskins won outright as huge dogs. I'd look to fade them, and I don't believe the Rams lose and go to 3-5 at home. The Rams are much more likely to win and go to .500 at home.

GL and enjoy the games!

Saturday, December 23, 2006


First of all, I am sick of people plagiarizing my picks, and people talking trash on message boards. Nobody gets lucky and picks 8 contrarian plays in a row. You don't pick the opposite of the easiest game of the week and win 8 in a row. You don't double your money 2 years in a row based on LUCK ( The statistical chances are slim to none of doing that). Let me also remind you that a professional will hit somewhere around 60%. If you don't like me, fine, but don't say that I was "lucky" to go 8-0 or lucky to double my money the past 2 years.

Thursday night I got back from the Gym after the action started. I knew everybody wanted to bet on Favre in his last home game, so I was already looking the other way. The fact that the public pounded GB was another reason to take Minnesota. If BJ started it would have been a lock, because I didn't want to be on Tavas Jackson ( a rookie). When I came back from the Gym the score was 3-0, and the Vikings were +6.5 on live betting at even money... I placed a half unit and won. I will not count that on my standings because it was not posted.

I don't see how Chris Collinsworth, Deion Sanders and everybody else at the NFL Network can hype up Tavaras Jackson. The only passes I saw him complete were 2 yard dump offs. The guy was 10-20 for 50 yards and 1 interception!

The thing that really got me was how they kept on talking about how "mobile" Jackson was. That just shows that discrimination and "moneyball ethics" lives on. In Moneyball, Michael Lewis points out how Billy Beane exploits discrimination. He tries to quantify his work and look at REAL statistics. The old school of baseball will look at a guy and talk about how he "looks like a slugger".

As fast as Jackson looks, he only ran a 4.8 at the combine. A 4.8 isn't slow, but consider that many defensive ends can run 4.5s and even some defensive ends ( Courney Brown ran a 4.4 and weighed 280 lbs). My point is that the announcer " assumed" Jackson was some fast mobile quarterback. Deion Sanders told him to " do what you do best" and get out of the pocket. Kyle Bollier ran I believe a 4.6 and I don't see the announcers talking about his speed and athleticism. It just shows how much " looks" and perception play into sports.

I can't believe Jackson was a 2nd round pick ( out of a D2 school), and I can't believe the announcers were sucking him off after a 50 yard and 1 interception performance. If Derek Anderson was 10-20 for 50 yards, Deion and everybody else would be making fun of him.... but a "mobile" Tavaras Jackson was 10-20 for 50 yards and a pick and people like Chris Collinworth were talking about how impressed they were with him and how the Vikings need to stick with him.

If Brad Johnson had 50 yards, they would be talking about how they should pull him. It just shows the discrimination exists. I guarantee you if the New York Giants fat boy Jared Lorenzon had that performance, they would be making fun of old tubby tubby.

Enough of the rant, here is the pick.

Oakland Raiders +7 ( call them my sucker bet as well)( 2 units)

The line is already at +7.5 at Bodog, and +8 at another book. I will wait until before kickoff and place 2 units on the spread and hopefully get it at 8.

Good things going for the raiders...
Home dog, Dog on National TV, Rivalry game, and the public is pounding the Cheifs . The Cheifs are also fighting for their playoff lives and I love fading the "must win for playoffs" situation. The public are pounding and pounding the Cheifs which creates solid value for the Raiders.

Warren Buffet says, " Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful while others are greedy".

I am looking at blindly taking all of the home dogs this weekend. and starting it off with the Raiders tonight!

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Sat night football

I can't believe the NFL network. Bryant Gumbel is the worst play by play guy I have ever seen. He calls Frank Gore " Al Gore", Michael Jenkins " Michael Jennings", the play clock the " shot clock" etc. Terrel Owens scores a touchdown and it takes Gum ball about 2 minutues to realize the cowboy scored.

Dick Vermiel and Marshall Faulk were actually very good and called a smart game. I actually liked how they had a player coach relationship and really built on what each other said. It was funny because they were just conversing and pretty much ignoring Gumbel. My only complaint was that Dick Vermiel sounded horrible with that cold he had. I don't care if Vermiel was calling the best game ever, his voice sounded like nails against a chalk board.

Deion Sanders comes in relief and just starts worshiping Michael Vick. You didn't see Tony Romo get a whole lot of praise in this game. Vick makes an average or routine throw in traffic and people praise the hell out of him ( that proves he is overrated, and proves that they are hyping him up). When Tony Romo completes a 12 yard pass, do you see the announcers talk about how great of a quarterback he is?

I loved Vick in the post game interview. He said " I would never take my self out of the game", but then he later said that he just had a minor groin injury that needed tending to. They showed him just sitting on the bench with nobody attending to anything. Vick also went on to talk about how much the rushing record meant to him and how he was a good quarterback with 19 touchdown passes.

The last time I can remember a Quarterback bringing up his own stats was Aaron Brooks when he was leaving the New Orleans Saints.

It just boggles my mind the number of excuses Mike Vick gets. If Vick has a good game, people call him the greatest ever. If Vick has a bad game, his receivers, coaches, fans and everybody else gets the blame.

Vick is mistaken by a lot of casual fans. He is an example of " what you see". It is real easy to measure a persons height, weight, speed etc. How do you measure a guy's knowledge? How do you measure a guy's football IQ and reads? How do you measure somebodies pocket presence and accuracy?

Mike Vick is very good at the stuff that you SEE, but his weaknesses are not easily brought out into the open. If he misses a wide open receiver, it is hard to see that on TV when they only show the line of scrimege. It's not just about the crazy plays he CAN make, but also about the routine plays that he can NOT make.

Deangelo Hall has got to be the most overrated corner in pro football. He is fast, and has a big mouth, so people assume that he is some great talent. He was talking about how the NY Giants " weren't a thang" and they torched him.

Deangelo was made famous for " shutting T.O. down to ONLY 100 yards" last year. Now call me crazy, but how is giving up 100 yards shutting a player down? If Joe Corner gives up 100 yards he was torched, but if big mouth Deanglo gives up 100 yards he " shut the guy down".

He was torched for another 2 touchdowns in the first half, and was penalized twice. Deanglo tries to act like such a touch guy, but TO spit in his face and Hall did nothing. I think Hall is a cry baby and and attention whore. I don't think what TO did was right, but I understand.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Week 15

Houston @ New England... Pats ML 14 to win 2.5 ( -560)
Philly @ New York Giants... Giants ML 5.5 units to win 2.5 ( -215)
Bengals @ Colts ..... Over 53.5 ( 5 units)

I might take a few units off the pats, but this week I am going heavy and I am trying to win everything. There is no playing the odds... I am trying to win everything.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

More on the overrated Tony Dungy

The colts got beat in another playoff like game.

Peyton Manning is regarded for not being able to win the big game, but what about Dungy? Has he won in Indy or Tampa?

The colts gave up 44 points to a basic Jags offense. All they did is ran the football. Everybody in the whole stadium knew what was coming, but I find it funny that the " defensive guru" Tony Dungy couldn't stop it. How is he a defensive guru? He starts a 209 pound linebacker... Some teams start 230-240 pound safeties!

Peyton Manning for nearly 4 times as many yards as David Garrard, but his team LOST! How is Manning supposed to win when his rush defense gives up 4 touchdowns, 368 yards and is on the field the entire game?

Lets take a look at some of the Jags ball carriers...
- Maurice Jones -Drew, 15 carries for 166 yards, 2 touchdowns. He also had a 93 yard kick return touchdown
- Fred Taylor, 9 carries for 131 yards and 1 touchdown
- Alvin Pearman, 13 carries for 71 yards and 1 touchdown

The Jags had 2 running backs rush for over 10 yards per carry!
The Jags had a running back rush over 150, 100, and their 3rd string back had 71 yards!

Last week Tony Dungy called a timeout to allow the Titans to kick the game winning field goal. This week the defensive genius got pissed on. Of course nobody is going to bash Dungy. The finger will be pointed everywhere else. Everybody around Dungy will get blamed, but he will be free of criticism.

Now I will turn on the post game shows, and have to hear the blame on everybody but Dungy. Why can't people see that he has been horrible in big games? Without a stacked Tampa D he is NOT even an average defensive coach. Without Peyton Manning, his colts would be a 2-14 team and nobody would be talking about Dungy.

Bad Calls

I don't understand how Joey Harrington tripps over Vince Wilfork and they call roughing the quarterback? Thats riddulous! How inconsistant are the calls on the quarterback?

The other calls that I see inconsitantly are pass interference. The Carolina defender was holding Tim Carters arm and negated a 41 yard pass play for the Giants! Horrible calls.

Giants -3 ( +4 units)actually 4.5 with +114 juice
Steelers -7 ( +2 units)
Pats -3 ( -2 units)
Faiders +10.5 ( -1 unit)
Bucs +3 ( -1 unit)
Texans -1 ( -1 unit)

+ 1.5 units. Thats what I get for playing the odds and fading the public. The public took a pounding last week and won some of their money back this week.

Add again

New York Giants -3 @ Carolina ( 3 more units)
+114 juice money... No delhomme, injured secondary, Giants bounce back.

Giants -4 ( 4 units)
New England -3 ( 2 units)
Tampa +3 ( 1 unit)
Raiders +10.5 ( 1 unit)
Houston -1 ( 1 unit)


Week 14 Add

New York Giants -3 @ Carolina ( 1 unit)

I got a good +114 juice money on this game too.

Saturday, December 09, 2006

Week 14

The Card for week 14
Cleveland @ Pitt -7 (2 units) WON
New England -3 @ Miami ( 2 units)
Oakland +10.5 @ Cincy ( 1 unit)
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay +3 ( 1 unit)
Tennesse @ Houston -1 ( 1 units) ( SUCKER BET)

Last week was a good week to fade the public. Those public dogs really barked back at betters. We probably won't see the public taking such a beating, but I want to bet with the books this week. I usually try and " just win baby", but this week I took a little bit more mechanical approach of taking 3 very unpopular plays ( Oakland, Tampa, and Houston). The public is also very heavy on Seattle, and heavy on Indy. I don't have much of an opinion on the Seattle/ Cards game, and I would actually lean Indy over jacksonville but as of right now I am not touching that game.

Raiders @ Cincy
Last week the Raiders held the Texans to -5 yards passing but lost. The Faiders lost because they committed 6 turnovers, and good teams can't win with 5 turnovers nevermind the Raiders. Last week I pointed out that Oakland has been losing... but not by much. The Raiders were underdogs in their last 7 contests but COVERED 6 of them. That means while the Raiders were losing, Raiders betters cashed in 6 outta 7 weeks. Last week was the first week the Raiders were favorites in their entire season, and they Shit the bed. Some teams play hungry in the role of the dog, some teams fall flat on their faces when they are favorites. This week the Raiders are 11 point underdogs, and have only lost by >11 twice in their last 10 games. Many of those Raider losses have been by 3-7 points, and I think they can cover this one.

The Bungles lost 5 out of 6 before this recent 3 game win streak. The Bengals have not been 11 point favorites YET this season, and the last time they were favored by greater than 3.5 points was when New England destroyed the 5 and a half point favored Bungles.

I think people really think the Bengals are back, and the books are making them pay a heavy premium for that perception. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the Bengals offense, but their suspect D has been playing better recently. I think Oakland can cover this game. If the Bengals get a lead, there is no reason to play aggressive offense. The Raiders defense is not bad, and if the Bengals limit themselves to hand offs and running out the lead it will favor Raiders backers. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders horrible offense showed some signs of life recently despite the turnovers. I think they can get some points against that suspect D. I love the fact that the public is pounding the Bengals, and I will gladly take the Raiders who have been an underdog covering machine.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Atlanta had lost 4 games in a row until they beat a bad Washington team last week. I think Vegas is making Atlanta Falcons betters pay a premium for that win last week, and because Atlanta is in a playoff battle.
These teams played in Week 2, and Atlanta won 14-3. Chris Simms turned the ball over 3 times and the Bucs lost. Mike Vick had Under 100 yards passing and a pick of his own. Before that Atlanta win, the Bucs won the last 3 meetings with Simms and Brian Griese beating Mike Vick.
The Value I see in the Bucs is the home field. Tampa is 0-6 on the road, but 3-3 at home. Their last home games were...
Win vs Washington
17 pt loss to New Orleans
Win vs philly
Win vs Cincy
2 point loss to Carolina
Tampa comes home after 4/6 road games, and 2 road games in a row. They come back home to Tampa where they play much better.
Mike Vick has a sore hamstring, which should force him to PASS more. The Bucs D certainly took a step back from last years ranking, but I think they can still play.
The Line opened at Bucs +1, but the public are pounding the Falcons, gimme Tampa +3 ( +114 juice)
Tennessee @ Houston ( sucker bet)
The Titans are a dog that won outright at home, that is favored on the road. That is a horrible situation for a team. Last week they won as 7.5 point underdogs, and now they are favored by 1 point at Bodog.
The public is pounding this game! The NFL network keeps replaying the game from last week, and the fans are buying into the Vince Young Hype. I think ESPN has futures in Vince Young winning rookie of the year or something! Houston opened up as a 3 favorite, but now they are a 1 point dog!
Houston has played 5 out of their last 6 games on the road! Their last 3 home games were a loss to Buffalo ( that they should have won), they beat Jacksonville by 20, and they beat Miami.
Vince Young may get all the credit in the world for their last 3 wins, but he beat a Mcnabbless Eagles team, and injury plagued Giants defense, and a BAD Indy defense.
There is a big difference between playing against soft defenses with a 20 point lead, and playing teams in a close battle. I want to see how the Titans do now that they are actually favored. Vince Young will have to play Quarterback this week, and he won't have the advantage of playing against Prevent defenses for the last 30 minutes of the game.
These teams faced off earlier in the year in Tennessee...
- Sage Rosenfels threw 3 touchdown passes in relief of David Carr who was taken out injured
- Walli Lundy rushed for over 100 yards
- Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels each caught 9 balls for a combined 3 Tds
- Vince Young was held to 7/15 for 87 passing yards
- None of the Titans rushed for more than 50 yards
- Mario Williams had a sack
- The Texans had 6 turnovers and LOST
I believe Houston can win this game at home where they play better. Without all those turnovers, they would have won last time. The Public are pounding this game like there is no tomorrow.
Pats @ Miami
The Pats only give up an average of 82 rushing yards ( 3.4 per carry) per game on defense. Now we must factor in that Ronnie Brown is OUT, and his backup, Sammy Morris is probable with a sprained ankle. Miami does NOT have a good offensive line to begin with, and this puts a lot of pressure on Joey's shoulders.
I think people have that turkey day win for Miami fresh in their minds, and that 4 game win streak. Before Miami's 4 game win streak, they had a 4 game losing streak.
New England on the other hand has won 7 of their last 9, and I believe they are polishing up for the playoffs. Last year Miami beat New England in the meaningless last game of the season, but New England has owned them for 6 of the prior last 7.
New England is 6-0 on the road, and I believe they are a mentally focused team that isn't phased on the road. The pats actually only give up 2.9 rushing yards against on the road ( even better than home)! If you want to purchase Futures on the Pats, I believe +900 is more than fair value. You will be buying good ownership/ GM. One of the top 3 coaches. The best or second best quarterback. A solid defense. At LEAST 1 Home game in cold New England. A team that is undefeated on the road, and that has already won 3 Superbowl's. I bought futures at +600, but I really like the deal at +900. The Superbowl is on the road, and the pats are not phased on the road.
The public seems to agree on the Pats, but the public can't lose ALL of their games.

Thursday, December 07, 2006


I'm talking about announcers because I want to mute the damn Thursday night game. I'm not just saying this for effects, but I can't listen to Bryant Gumbel and Chris Collinsworth.

Bryant Gumbel might not even be a man. The guy has a Pip squeak voice, and is more suited to calling a tennis match. Two weeks ago he called the Bengals scoring drive " glorious". I can't believe this guy is calling a tough guy football game.

As bad as Gumbel is, I think Chris Collinsworth is WORSE. He is Mr. Negativity. All Chris does is bash the team that is losing and not making plays. " You know, this offensive line is playing Whore-aable", " You know, this guy is NOT a good player", " You know, these penalties are killing this team and they can't win". The best games to watch that Collinsworth does, are comebacks. He really changes his tune and looks like a class A fool.

Some opinions on other announcers...

I love Al Michaels doing the play by play. He is professional, has a good voice, and calls a smart game. The guy can call Football, basketball, or any other sport for the matter. He has the added bonus of casually throwing in some gambling lingo.

I'm not a big fan of John Madden. I think he is a senile old man, but he is kind of growing on me. You know that no matter what team is playing, he will throw in a Brett Favre reference. I'd prefer to NOT have to listen to Madden, but he's better than some of the other clowns out there. The guy is a character, and isn't that intelligent, but you kind of get used to him.

Joe Theisman is terrible. I almost feel sorry for the guy. He reminds me of when you go to a family reunion and have to talk to some relative that you really don't want to talk to. Joe thinks he knows everything about everything, and will try and "teach", Tony and Mike Tirico something every week. Watching him ask Jay-Z something was funny. We all know that Joe has NEVER listened to Hip hop before, and has nothing in common with Jay Z. He asked Jay Z something and was kind of ignored. I honestly feel bad for Theisman. He's so bad that you feel sorry for him.

Tony Kornheiser is great at PTI and Radio, but not a good football guy. Mr. Tony Admits that he knows little to nothing about the NFL, but they still stick him up there in the booth! It boggles my mind, how they just throw him up in the booth up there. I love his shows, but he shouldn't be talking about stuff he has no clue about.

Mike Tirico calls a good game. He has a solid voice, and brings up intelligent comments. He's the play by play guy, but he brings more insight than Tony and Theisman! Here is a guy that worked his whole life for this gig, and then he gets paired with two stooges in the booth.

Joe Buck is a guy that I can't stand in baseball and football. He really obviously picks sides ( St. Louis Cardinals), and is another pompous asshole. The camera man really doesn't do him any favors with the screen shots, because Joe Buck has the biggest forehead I have ever seen. He does have a big voice, but he is another negative guy. I could see why some people think he has talent, but I don't like him.

I like listening to Troy Aikman and Daryl Johnson call games. The former cowboys bring good insight, and break the game down well. Aikman will try and point out things that the average fan might not see.

Brian Baldinger is a big dumb ass that I can't stand. ESPN must have a soft spot for these big dumb former lineman like Baldinger and Mike Golic. They might as well name these guys " Joe Public". These guys help Las Vegas, because they just feed the public with these cliches.

Soloman Wilcots is a big and confident guy, but he has some sort of a fixation on a quarterbacks mobility. If you played a drinking game and DRANK a beer each time Madden Mentioned Brett Favre, you would be piss drunk by halftime. If you played a drinking game where you drank a beer each time Soloman mentioned a Quarterbacks mobility, you would be drunk before the end of the first quarter. If a QB scrambles for a first down, the guy literally can't control himself. If he ever called a Falcons game, he might never shut up. They won't let him do a Falcons game, because he usually gets one of the crappiest games of the week each week.

The other guy that gets stuck with the lame duck game of the week is Ron Pitts. It seems like every week he is doing a Lions game, or the packers game, or the other lower end teams. I just question the guys intelligence. I know he likes football, but he really doesn't bring much analysis to the table.

In the AFC, I think Phill Simms is a very good. He really knows the game, and he really talks to the players to have good things to talk about. The only complaint I have about Simms is his voice. Sometimes he comes across as a little Whiny, but he really knows his stuff.

I think Brian Gumbel is real good too. He is fair, has a good voice, and has good observations.

I'd the other guys from the old sunday night crew thumbs down as well. That old Sunday night crew with Theisman, Dierdorff and the bald guy was horrible.

The Best
Aikman, Moose Johnson, Phill Simms, Al Michaels, Mike Tirico, Brian Gumbel

The Worst
Chris Collinsworth, Brynant Gumbel, Soloman Wilcots, Brian Baldinger, Ron Pitts

Thursday night play

Pittsburgh -7 ( 2 units)

Every time a new QB starts to play, the ESPN hype machine is at work. Remember when Rex Grossman got hurt last year and Kyle Orton got to play? Every ESPN analyst was sure to say that " Orton is a sleeper, the kid can play". Everybody liked Kyle Orton last year, and now everybody is sure to call Derek Anderson a sleeper.

They try and compare Anderson ( who has been on the bench), to Tony Romo ( who was been on the bench). Let me be first to tell you that a ROMO situation is rare, and NOT the norm. If a guy is on the bench, there is usually a reason.

The Browns have been fighting in their games, and covering spreads, but now they have a new QB starting under the big lights at Pittsburgh. Let me remind you that Pittsburgh was real stingy to opponent QB's last year. I believe opposing QB's had the lowest QB rating at Heinz last year.

The perception on the steelers is that they are NOT the team they were last year ( which is true). People who are on cleveland tonight know the steelers are not who they were, Hines Ward is out, Palamalou and Clarck ( both safeties are out). They also want to roll the dice on this Anderson kid and a Cleveland team that won last week.

The Steelers are MUCH better at home than on the road. They play well on Nationally televised games, and they are facing a rookie QB.

7 is a super key number. Everybody loved a 3 point spread, but after 3 I believe that 7, 1, 4, 6 are the next best numbers. The reason why 7 is so key is because it is one possession. Coaches want to take the ability for the other team to win away. If your up 7, and there is a hard choice to either kick the FG, or go for it, the coach will kick to go up by 2 scores.

Tonight, I see Cleveland having a hard time running the ball, and I don't see Derek Anderson winning the game. He will come back down to earth.

In life people FEAR the unknown. In football, people LOVE the unknown. The media went on and on last week about how Jay Cutler was going to be a huge upgrade over Jake Plummer. Now Cutler may well turn out to be that upgrade, but he wasn't last week.

The line opened at -9 because somebody else thought the steelers would win by Double Digits as well. The line was at -7.5 and this morning I saw -7 at Pinny and took it. Get the -7 point line, and see me at the pay out window.

Monday, December 04, 2006


Last week could have been a real good week. I lost my Teaser because of the colts, and I lost the Raiders game. Once again, the difference between a 3 unit LOSS, and a 3 unit WIN is 6 units and huge.

The Raiders held David Carr and the Texans to -5 yards passing, and scored a defensive touchdown but lost! The Raiders lost because Aaron Brooks threw 2 picks and the team had 3 fumbles for 5 turnovers! The Raiders D did step up to play this game, but the risk of betting a bad team was those 5 turnovers. Teams that turn the ball over 5 times do NOT have a chance at winning games.

- The Steelers cruised to a nice Victory.
- The Falcons started the game losing 14-0, but won 24-14.
- The Giants game was the game of the week, but it was a push for me. I wish I got the line Giants +3.5, but I got the Giants +3 with a higher payout. I wish I got that half of a point.

I'd like to take you back to the last 11 seconds of the Titans/ Colts game and Tony Dungy's huge mistake.
With 11 seconds left, the Titans had the ball at the 43 yardline. The Titans had the opportunity to kick a 60 yard field goal to win the game, but if they missed, Peyton and the colts would get the ball at the spot the ball was kicked.

So here is the situation
A) So if Rod Birnoas kicks the very difficult 60 yarder, the titans win
B) if Rod Birnoas missed the 60 yard field goal, the colts get the ball back at the 50 with 6 seconds left and 1 timeout. That means if Peyton makes 1 throw and gets 10-20 yards that Adam Viniteri would turn around and attempt the game winner for the COLTS!

Jeff Fisher sends out Rod Birnoas and the kicking team, but then decides to call a timeout. After he calls the timeout, he sends out his PUNTING unit. Fisher realized that if Birnoas MISSED the 60 yarder ( which is a very difficult kick), that his titans had a chance at LOSING the game.

But then Tony Dungy screws up. Instead of letting the Titans PUNT, he calls a timeout for some unknown reason. I guess he was confused or something. That was the Cardinal Sin. After Dungy called the timeout, it allowed Fisher to send the kicker back out there for a RISK FREE chance to win the game ( since 6 seconds and no timeouts would not give the colts a chance to pick up the yards they need to kick the FG).

Bironas kicks the improbable 60 yarder and the Titans win.

I'm sure others who bet on the colts were pissed. I can't believe ESPN didn't break down the Dungy mistake. It once again proves my point that Dungy gets a free pass from criticism. If it were Mike Martz that called the timeout, the ESPN crew would be talking about how dumb Mike Martz was in the post game show... Nobody said anything bad about Dungy and that cardinal sin.

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Week 13

Week 13 card
Steelers ML ( 6 units to win 2)
2 Team Teaser: Colts -.5, Steelers Pick'em ( 3 units)
Atlanta +1 ( 2 units)
Oakland -3 ( 2 units)
New York Giants +3 ( 2 units) ( sucker bet)
parlay, Steelers ML, Colts ML, Falcons +1, Oakland -3, NYG +30( .5 units to win 6 units)

Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay road offense 9.4 PF Under 200 yards passing/Game , Under 100 yards rushing
Tampa Bay road defense 23.4 PA, give up Over 150 yards rushing a game and 4.5 per carry

Steelers Home Offense 30.2 PF, Pass for Over 250 per game, and Rush for 169 per game ( 5.2 a carry)
Steelers Home Defense 22.8 PA , surrender only 80 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry

- Tampa Bay is Winless on the road, and they won't change that in Pittsburgh this week.
- Despite the Steelers superbowl Hangover, they are still 3-2 at home.
- They have beat 1st place New Orleans at home, and Destroyed the Chiefs 45-7.

Early in the Year I decided that Pittsburg at home was a play that I would at least consider every single week. They are better than advertised at home ( but not as good on the road). I tried to quantify why the Steelers are better at home and I came up with a few points in summary. The slow grass on the field plays to the teams strengths. The Steelers have a solid O-Line and run game, and they have a good defense. The grass will slow down opposing offenses ( and help their D), while the grass doesn't hurt their big powerful offensive line as much. Also rememer, Florida teams don't win up north in December.

Tampa Bay is a team that is plagued by a bad offensive line. The offensive line is the heartbeat of your football team. A solid offensive line allows your team to run the football, and keep your defense rested on the sideline. A bad offensive line forces your offense into long passing situations, and keeps your defense on the field. Tampa Bay has one of the worst offensive lines in the entire NFL.

The Bucs Line doesn't get any push in the run game, and they can't protect the QB in the passing game. The Bucs run a more traditional west coast offense that tries to limit the time the quarteback has the ball... with shorter 3 and 5 step drops, and faster developing routes for the receivers.

Offensive lines can give up sacks because lineman get beat, or because of mental errors... A mental error would be two guys blocking 1 defensive lineman, while another guy rushes in free. The Steelers confusing zone blitz is known to create the Mental errors on the offensive line. A lot of the mental errors can be attributed to the Center and Quarterback, and Bruce Gradkowski is still a rookie. When people judge quarterbacks, they look at their arm, their mobility etc., but they don't really judge their ability to put their teamates in the right position to pick up blitzes etc. For example, Peyton Manning doesn't get sacked a lot because he is mobile, but because he recognizes the blitzes before the play even begins. This week, Bruce Gradkowski is taking the NFL equvilent of Chemistry 401 when he faces off against Dick Leabu.

Atlanta @ Washington
- Everybody loved the Falcons when they were 2-0, everybody loved them when they were 5-2, but everybody jumped ship after they lost 4 in a row.
- ESPN picked the Redskins to go to the superbowl, but after an 0-2 start, and a 2-5 start, they jumped ship. Now Jason Campbell comes to rescue and people in Washington have said the P word. Please don't get carried away here. After the Redskins bounced back and won 2 games after an 0-2 start they still said the S word. Maybe it's because I live in Washington, but these Redskins fans crack me up. In the stock market, when the shoe shine boy starts talking about stocks, you know it's time to get out of the market... When the fans in Green Bay said Playoffs a few weeks ago I faded them just as I will fade the Redskins and their playoff talk.

Now let's get to the X's and O's...

Jason Campbell has been deemed the Savior of the Redskins. People say that he should have replaced Mark Brunell ages ago. Campbell has a lower QB rating, and has completed 52% of his passes, where Brunell completed 62% of his passes. You might think that's because Brunell just dinked and dunked the ball, but Brunell still has 1.5 yards more per completion than Campbell which is pretty signifigant.

Everybody knows Michael Vick is a mobile Quarterback. Some would even argue that he shouldn't even be playing quarterback. The reason I bring up Vicks mobility, is because Gregg Williams coached defenses have a very hard time defending mobile quarterbacks. The evidence is there, and if I had to guess why this is so, I would say that since he throws so many looks at players, he is trying to TRICK opposing quartebacks.

These "Tricks" are more effective against Read and React offenses. The Falcons offense is NOT a west coast offense as adverties by the Media, but it is a misdirection offense that would resemble Denver or Houston. The offense is designed to Isolate individual matchups. The coaching staff wants to have a favorable matching in the stretch run play, otherwise they want Vick on a bottleg 1 on 1 with a DE or OLB. They also run their option plays which attempt to Isolate certain players. The key players for washington this week, are the Left Defensive end ( Andre Carter) and the Left Outside Linebacker ( Marcus Washington).

I've said all along that I think Washingtons Defense is not as talented as advertised. They can't generate a pass rush with their front 4, they have 1 good linembacker ( Marcus Washington), and 1 or 2 good players in the secondary ( Sean Taylor) and the injured Shawn Springs when healthy. It is very difficult to play defense in the league without a good pass rush. I believe that Andre Carter is probably better suited to play an Outside Linebacker position in a 3-4 like Demarcus Ware.

- Washington has a new QB and beat Carolina last week raising their value. Atlanta has lost value with 4 losses in a row, and their media contraversey. If last week didn't happen, Atlanta could have been a 3 point road favorite. I think there is Value to Atlanta as a 1 point underdog. For some reason, I thought think this game will be a 21-19 Atlanta Victory but that score doesn't make sense. However, the Over Under was pegged right at 40. Washington will be going for their 2nd 2 game win streak of the season. Earlier in the year they beat Houston, and then Jacksonville in OT. I don't see them winning 2 in a row against a desperate Atlanta team.

Houston @ Oakland
I was going to Make Oakland +13 against San Diego the sucker bet last week, and probably should have. Most people tuned out the Oakland raiders after they proved to be one of the biggest jokes this season...

The only people laughing right now, are Raiders backers. The Raiders have won and outstanding 6 of their last 7 against the spread. It's too bad that didn't count for something huh? I don't care what anybody says, the Raiders defense is not bad, it's better than you think. In fact, the Raiders have also played UNDER in their last 7 contests! The main problem with thei Raiders, is that their offense is predicated on more of a deep ball, and their O-Line can't block long enough for their receivers to get open. They should look into more rollouts, screens, draws, and shorter passing routes. If the Raiders defense wasn't on the field the entire game, that defense would look a lot better on paper. Even with an average offense, that Raiders D would look better. Derrick Burgess has 8.5 sacks and has proven to be one of the best pass rushers in the game.

I like the fact that the Raiders got the Veteran Aaron Brooks back. It's not like Brooks is going to break any passing records this season, but he is an upgrade over Andrew Walter. The Raiders have been IN all their games recently, which is why they covered 6 of their last 7. I know they haven't used Randy Moss that much latley, but if they don't use Moss against that Terrible Houston secondary, their coaching staff should be shot. Lee Evans looked like Jerry Rice after 1 quarter of play against Houston.

Houston is always a road fade. Houston has won 1 road game this year, and losses by an average of 11 points. I see Aaron Brooks having an Easier time against a weak Houston D, and I see David Carr having a harder time than advertised against an Underrated Raiders D. This is probably the Raiders easiest or second easiest game this year, and the last time they had a beat-able opponent they beat the Arizona Cardinals 22-9. The Raiders last 3 home games were a 4 point loss to Denver, Beating Pittsburgh, and Beating Arizona. The Black Hole will be in full effect, and the Raiders go on to victory. I also like the fact that this isn't exactly a prime time matchup, and the game won't have much money on it ( either side).

Dallas @ New York ( sucker bet)
This game will probably have more bets on it than any other game this week. Although there isn't THAT much more money on Dallas, I believe a lot of suckers are on the Cowboys.

The average fan sees an injured Giants team that lost 3 in a row. The average fan has heard ESPN knock Eli Manning 24/7 because of performances against the Bears, Jags and Titans. Each week we have to hear about how Michael Vicks receivers don't help him out and it's not HIS fault, but Eli had 9 dropped balls against the Jags, and Plax Quit on that Titans interception. The failures are not All his receivers fault, but it's not all on Eli either.

The Giants have been a lightning rod by the media of late, and I agree with a lot of the comments made by Michael Strahan. The media isn't going to try and write a positive story about a team that lost 3 in a row. The media isn't going to try and paint a picture of a cohesive locker room, they want a story about a divided locker room. Strahan talks about how the media tries to mislead, and " CREATE" news, which they do. The media has a story about a player being 5 minutues early and fined, and they constantly talk about how that team is disfunctional. The fact of the matter is that the player knew he was supposed to be there 15 mintues early and wasn't. He wasn't there when he was supposed to be, so he was late... The media only gets a tiny piece of what is really going on, and they they try and blow up what little knowledge they have.

On the other side of the ball, the Dallas Cowboys are riding a wave of success. It all changed when Tony Romo replaced Drew Bledsoe against the Giants. The average fans thinks Tony Romo is the greatest thing since sliced bread. He has a high QB rating and has won games. Bill Parcells talks about those "mistakes" that he has been dodgeing. Eventually, they will catch up to him. Throwing 5 TD passes on thanksgiving only raised the bar yet again for the young Romo.

Before you become a "Romosexual", realize that every square in America will be on Dallas -3 tommorow. The sharpes don't ALWAYS win, but they win more than the squares do. Bill Parcells was asked about the game and he expects " a close hard fought battle" and I honestly believe him.

- The Giants have not lost a Divisional game in 2 years.
- The Giants have only lost 2 home games this year... They lost to the (9-2)Bears in a game they were winning in the first half, and they lost on the final drive to the (10-1) colts. Last year the Giants were also very good at home 8-1).
- Romosexual is 4-1 as a starter, but lost in relief to the Giants, and Lost @ Washington ( divisonal road game). Romo threw 3 picks against the Giants in his first game.

The average fan hasn't SEEN a hiccup game from Romo yet, and can't envision one. They have seen everything go right, but haven't seen much contraversy yet. Romo lost on the road at Washington in a close hard fought battle that has been forgotten.

One of the other reasons I love this game is because I expect to see the Giants totally focused at home. They have lost 3 in a row, and have been bashed constantly by the media. Plax is a time bomb as far as I am concerned, but he shouldn't Quit or complain on anything this week. I expect to see a cut back on the number of mental errors, and the Giants should get Osi Omenyouri back on defense.

Eli Manning has played the role of the goat enough, and I see Tony Romo getting rattled on the road. The last meeting in Dallas, the Giants dominated the game. Bledsoe got replaced, and Romo threw 3 picks. I know Joe Buck loves that Romo Smile, but it won't be so cute anymore when he's throwing picks.

This game should have a lot of money on it, which is why it is a perfect candidate for a sucker bet. The Giants are in the huge NY market, and Dallas is " America's team". We have a 3 point dog at home on a Nationally televised game. We have the slumping team that should bust out and beat the public favorites.

Indy@ Tennesse
I don't want to write too much about this game, but Vince Young is getting a lot of love after last weeks win. The Titans are starting to get some respect in Vegas, and especially because they only lost by 1 at Indy earlier in the year.

I watched both of those games, and the first meeting between the colts and Titans was not Tennesse playing well, but Indy NOT playing well.

The colts have only lost 1 game this year, and to be able to tease them down to -.5 is worth it. If they win, I win. The titans secondary isn't very good, and the colts offense is clicking.

If no other argument works for you, take a look at the Manning factor. The titans beat Manning V2.0 last week, but they will lose to the better Manning this week. The colts have to keep pace, and they WILL against Tennesse tommorow.

Friday, December 01, 2006


Before I move on to week 13, I wanted to go over some unfinished business....

Week 12 turned a profit, but it just left a sour taste in my mouth. The loss on the Giants game was too tough to take. A few weeks ago, Denver was beating San Diego 24-7 and then lost, and this past week the Giants were up 21-0 in Tennesse, only to give up 24 unanswered fourth quarter points. It's not just that the Giants lost, but HOW they lost. There were no 2 bigger plays than a late Giants interception intended for Plax, and a MISSED sack by rookie Kiwinuka. If you will go back and read my early season prediction, I talk bad about Plax.

Plax can often BURDEN the Giants more than he can help them. He is perceived by many as some great deep target, but people gloss over his faults. The guy can often times drop short and intermediate balls, and the guy often just quits and complains. He quit on a 4th quarter pass that was picked off, and gave a half ass effort in tackling the cornerback. The dropped balls, deflections for picks, and quit plays only show up on Eli's stat sheet. If Plax had half the heard that Hines Ward had, he'd still be in Pittsburgh with a hefty contract.

Plax is a guy that went to Fork Union Military academy ( a school known for it's discipline), yet he quits and cries like a little girl. If Eli doesn't throw a jump ball to him in the red zone, he will flail his arms up in the air and complain. I noticed this in the past, and then Eli BLINDLY threw at Plax only to be intercepted. It is more difficult than it looks to only have 1 football, and two mouthy receivers in Plax and Shockey. These guys want the ball every play, whether their open or not.

The other complaint I have is the league and their policy on quarterbacks...
You can't hit them below the legs, you can't hit them in the head, you can't LEAD with your head, you can't drive them into the ground, you can't give them an extra tap...

If you re-examine the Giants play, you will notice that Vince Young's arm was moving forward when the Giants rookie Defensive End hit him. Not only was Vince Young's Arm moving forward, but Vince stopped Moving!!! It would be difficult to tell if Vince threw the ball or not with his arm moving forward and his ceasure to scramble. What would have happened if Vince really DID throw the ball, and Kiwinuka hit him and drove him into the ground? Tom Coughlin would have been screaming at him alright, screaming for that 15 yard personal foul he just cost his team.

There was another bad play where the Cleveland Browns defensive player hit Big Ben a few weeks ago but didn't drive him into the ground. Big Ben bounced off the defender and threw the ball away avoiding a huge 15 yard loss on the play.

The reason why I disagree with the league is because they are physically changing the way the game is played. I understand their commitment to protecting quarterbacks, but the rules are enforced inconsistently and are ruining the game. Defensive Lineman don't know whether to take a guy down, or to back off because the rules are enforced in such a wide range.

The Giants' Titans Loss turned for a WIN of 4 units, into a LOSS of 4 units( 8 unit turn around). I ended up letting a HUGE play ride on the colts which nullified that loss. If I would have won the Giants game, I probably would have hedged away the Colts game for a guaranteed 2 units, and the net wouldn't have changed that much.... It's just that was such a hard loss to take! If it weren't for those breakdowns in the Giants and Denver games, those good weeks could have been Great.

Other week 12 notes
- I'll bet you Mike Vick didn't think the Camera's were still rolling when he double flicked off those fans!!!
- The sucker bet went up in flames this week a 27-0 loss at Baltimore. I also considered Buffalo, but I just couldn’t picture the Jags losing in Buffalo. I was actually going to make the Raiders the Sucker bet at San Diego, but changed my mind.
- Along the theme of “ shoulda been”, was this Thursdays game of Cincy and Baltimore. I was going to throw 1 unit down on the Bengals but decided not to. I also liked New England in Prime time last week but wanted to keep the card thin.

- I don’t know what everybody else thinks about football on the NFL Network, but I think the announcers are horrible. Bryant Gumbel has a high pitched whiney voice, and called the Bengals scoring drive “Glorious”. The guy saying the score was 3-0, when in fact it was 6-0 and called a catch over the middle a “ sideline catch”. Chris Collinsworth is probably my least favorite guy out there. Chris is one of the most negative people out there. Everybody is a genius after the fact, and he will say stuff like “ why did he throw that interception, he should not have thrown that pass”. Hindsight is 20/20. Instead of talking about how well a player is playing, Collinsworth will talk about how his competition is making bone head plays and are just making AWFUL mistakes. Collinsworth is a know it all, and the funniest thing is watching a team comeback in a game he calls. He could spend the whole first half bashing the losing team, talking about how dumb they are, but then spend the whole second half bashing the other team. Chris reminds you of the angry dad basketball coach that is always whining about terrible officiating, only he is always whining about players mistakes.

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