Pro Football Picks

The Eagles just tied it up so I'm 50/50 on that game, but the Fins look like a loss. Nice pass around the goal line rickey.

2 team 6.5 point teaser ( 1 unit)
Arizona +9
Patriots +8.5

Turkey Day
Lost the Packers 1st half, won the Packers 2nd half
Lost the first leg of the Giants teaser
Finish the day down 1 unit

Sunday
Eagles -3, Patriots +9 Teaser ( 2 units)
Colts -3 ( 2 units)
Miami -3.5 (1 unit)
GL, as always, looking for halftime plays as well

GB Packers 2nd half -7 ( 1 unit)

I'm pissed, they have 3 scores to the Lions 1 score but didn't cover the 7 point first half spread with a 1 point loss.

Last week was a great week.

Green Bay Packers -7 1st half(1 unit)
New York Giants -.5 teased with Eagles -3 ( 1 unit)

The Packers have a quarterback, and they can score. GB seems to get to leads, and then piss them away in the second half ( like last week). The Lions defense is piss poor and they were even lit up by an anemic Browns defense that I had doubts could move the ball against a college team. Every year the Lions suck, and every year people say " yeah, but I expect them to play hard on National TV". I think it was last year or two years ago they played the Titans and were comically destroyed as betting on the Titans was easy money.

The Giants game might be hard, I don't know that I'd take them without the tease, but I do expect them to get the W. The Eagles are playing the Redskins and should easily be able to beat them by 3 at home.

MNF ADD

Titans/Texans OVER 48 ( .25 unit)
GL

ADD

Add Eagles -3 ( bought hook) 1 unit.
Good week so far, could have been even better if I took SD, and NE 1st half like I thought about but some of the early games were still in limbo. Nothing is easy right?

The games are going well so far, I was hoping one team I was leaning would play rough in the 1st half, and that I could bet them in the 2nd half.

Dallas -6.5 ( 2nd half) 1 unit.

I doubt Dallas loses, this game, and if they win, I'm betting they cover. I wasn't even watching this game but I doubt they lose to Washington.

Week 11

New York Giants ML, -360 (2.5 units)
6 pt Teaser: NY Giants -1, Arizona Cards -3 (2 units)

EDIT:
I'm adding
GB Packers ML -260 (2.5 units)
GB Packers 1st half -3.5 ( 1 unit)

SF doesn't travel well
GB struggles when you pressure the QB
SF doesn't excel at pressuring the QB
Aaron Rodgers > Alex Smith
Packers defense > 49ers defense

GL

ADD

Colts -1 (2.5 units).

Recap
Steelers/Cards LOST ( 2.5 units)
Vikings 2nd half WIN (1 unit)
Cards/Eagles PUSH
Eagles +1 LOST ( 2.5 units)

I'm not sure if Pitt pulls this out, but I'm doubtful.

ADD (2.5 units)
Arizona Cards -2.5
Eagles +8

ADD

Minnesota Vikings -7.5 (1 unit)

They can run the ball, protect the league and keep the other teams rookie QB at bay to win by more than 14.

- I considered adding the Saints 2nd half over, but I'd rather get it at 24 than 24.5
- I considered adding Denver 2nd half "pick em" to win by 3, but the line moved to .5 and I'm not as comfortable at for them to win by 3.5
- I'm watching the Carolina game, and I do think they win, but I don't like only getting +3 for the 2nd half. I think this game goes under 21.5 in the 2nd half, but I took Minnesota -7.5 instead. Turner is hurt, but so is Steve Smith and Jordan Gross.

Last week was 2-2
I felt like I got some bad breaks in Philly & NY.

This week
TEASE: Pittsburgh -.5, Arizona -2.5
ATS: Eagles +1

I don't know if I'd play Pitt & Arizona ATS, but I really like them both just to win. The Eagles also are better than SD.

Ideally Pittsburgh wins at 1PM. At that point I'd even consider taking some off of Philly but if Pittsburgh losses at 1PM, I'd probably buy a teaser with Arizona -2.5, and Philly +8. I like Philly plus 8, but I'm really hoping Pitt wins at 1PM, so 4pm will have more action.

If Pitt wins at 1PM
I'd have Arizona -2.5 to win 2.5 units
I'd have Philly +1 to win 2.5 units
I'd like to think I'd at worst go 1-1, but probably 2-0.

If Pitt losses at 1PM
I'd sell my Philly +1, maybe even buy a "pick em" at Beted
Then I'd tease Arizona -2.5 to Philly +8
I'd hope to win that tease and break even ( I really think it would work).

That's the game plan anyway.

I'll see how the other games go as well for halftime bets etc. I'd also consider Indy in the night game, and I'd consider actually going against GB as a hedge for my GB season long 9 game win total. I should have faded them against Minny 2 weeks ago as a hedge but I let it ride.

ADD

Steelers -2.5 (2.5 units)

I'm chasing on Pittsburgh. I can't believe the Giants lost, and I can't believe the Eagles lost. I think that those guys would win those match ups more than 50% of the time and both lost...

New York Giants -3 (2.5 units)
New Orleans Saints -10 (2.5 units)

I'd be tempted to hit the saints over 24.5... I don't like that hook, I'll take the saints 2nd half team. GL.

Week 9
Eagles -3 (-105) for 2.5 units.

I'm looking for some 2nd half plays, I'm not thrilled with this early card. I'd be tempted to tease Green Bay down from 10 to 3, but with what? Baltimore @ Cincy looks alright, but I think the Eagles is the best bet of the week. Better team, at home, only a 3 point spread.