Sunday, October 28, 2007

2nd Half Add

Added: Cleveland Browns 2nd Half -3 ( +105) Bodog 1 unit

Browns are gashing the Rams with simple runs up the middle. They have also always been running RIGHT, and ripping off 9 yard runs. The passing game is working too, but ChizIcan't spell your name doesn't even have to use it as much.

The Browns were a little slow at the beginning, but that run right is working, and they are exploiting it.

The rams on the other hand lost Steven Jackson indefinatly, and the Browns defense got a little pumped from stopping a 4th and 1. This game is sure to rip off points, but the over looks good and I think the Browns win this game. Good Luck.

Week 8

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Week 7 1-2-0 ATS. 0-0 ML -1 unit
Season = +7.25 units

Week 8 Card
Cleveland/Rams Over 45 ( 5 units Beted)
Giants -3, Colts -.5 teaser ( 3 units)

The Manning teaser.
I know people subscribe to the theory that the Colts will stay undefeated for their showdown with the Pats, but they are in a sand which situation coming off the short monday nighter, and with the Pats to look ahead to. Carolina is a home dog, but I just don't see it. The public is eating up the Colts, and I don't know if they cover or not, but I do see them winning. I think they are an excellent team to tease today at that 7 number. I know the Colts aren't as good of a team ( especially defense) on the road, but I think they get it done today.

Eli should also hold his end of the bargain. Eli and the Giants can win on the road, and this week is a true road game to say the least. Who would you rather bet on...
Eli throwing passes to Shockey and Plax, or Cleo Lemon throwing to Marty Booker? Big Brandon Jacobs or Jesse Chatman? Giants upper echelon offensive line, or the Dolphins O-line?Sometimes you need to just keep it simple stupid.

I also like the Browns/Rams over 45. You would think this meeting of two bad defenses that this number should be at least 48. Everybody loves to bet overs when they see two good offenses, but you also have to like fading two bad defenses. The NFL can be very difficult to play offense, and sometimes all an offenses needs as a spark is a weaker defensive opponent.

The Rams should be getting back Bulger and S-Jack, and the Browns offenses had actually been decent this year. I think the Rams win/cover the 3, as their offense will look to get back into sync.

These defenses both give up 4.0 yards per carry and the Browns give up 149 yards per game on the ground while the Rams give up 129. These teams give up a combined 57 points per game, nearly 750 yards per game, and they will be playing in a dome on turf I love this over. Both offenses are good enough to move the ball, and they should be able to pass and run. I think these teams will cover this number sometime in the late 3rd quarter.

Monday, October 22, 2007

MNF Week 7

1 Unit on the Jags +3.5 (bodog)...
Don't want to go through the trouble of a write up, but here is what I see...
- Home dog
- Dog on national TV
- Jags are underrated ( I have them right there with Pitt)
- Colts ( especially defense) is way worse on road
- Game on grass favors
Jax- Del Rio coaching advantage over Fungi :)

Honestly, the Colts were a 4-4 team on the road last year that split their division 3-3. I see the Jags as being an underrated team that could capture first place tonight. I don't think the Jags win the division, but I was going to jump on the " Jags to win the NFC South futures" last week ad 7-1 because that is value. Do you remember their last meeting? The Jags pissed on the colts, shook, and then pissed on Fungys defense some more to the tune of 300 + rushing yards. Fred Taylor, that little bowling ball MJD, and even the 3rd string back toefield pissed on the colts.

Freeney did his lame little loop around the tackle, and the Jags kept taking the free yards they were given.Not only did I have this game circled with the Colts seeing their first loss... the public loves the Colts, and I love fading the public.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Week 7

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATs, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Season = +8.25 units

Although I didn't get a play in on the Giants MNF game last week. I probably shouldn't even count that. It was an undefeated week last week, and that big week I was looking for. I don't like the card as much this week.

Week 7 card
Tampa + 3 ( bodog, bought 1/2 point) 2 units
Giants -9 ( bodog) 2 units
Jaguars +3.5 ( units depending on the first 2 games)

Tampa +2.5
Tampa is the flat out better team here. I know Detroit is better at home ( as opposed to the road), but this matchup of the old NFC Central favors the Bucs.

One of the things I like about this match up is that Jeff Garcia and the Bucs have allowed a league best 6 giveaways. Garcia has only thrown 1 interception ( League best), and they have lost 5 fumbles.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa has caused 12 turnovers ( tied for 3rd best in the NFC). They have 7 picks on D, and 5 fumbled recovered. The 5 fumbles cancel each other out, and it basically means the Bucs are a lot more likely to pick off opposing quarterbacks, than opponents pick off Garcia. All of that leads the Bucs to have the #1 turnover differential in the NFC at +6.

Why do I bring up turnovers? I bring up turnovers because the Bucs are playing a turnover prone team in Detroit. The Stats don't show that the Lions have 4 easy picks against Tavaras Jackson, but they also have 14 give aways ( near the bottom of the pack.)

Detroit is obviously a one dimensional passing team, and they do have the better offense, but the Bucs strength on D is stopping the pass. The Bucs only allow 5.7 yards per pass for under 200 yards per game.

I know people like the Marinelli angle, but in all honesty the guy was just their D-Line coach. He wasn't calling plays, he wasn't even the 2nd or 3rd in command, he was just a fiery guy that Matt Millen brought in instill some discipline. He is more of a figure head, and less of a genius of any sort. If you want to look at a revenge angle, look no further than Jeff Garcia. The guy was in the NFL grave yard known as Detroit, and he would like nothing better than to show that city up. I think the Bucs win outright, better team, better defense, better QB, better coach, and I am happier to get the 3 points.

Giants -9
The Giants have won their last 4 games by 7, 13, 11, 21 or an average of 13 points. San Fran in that same stretch has gone 1-3 and averaged a double digit loss. I was higher on the Giants than pretty much anyone this season as I pegged them at 10-6 and a playoff team. I saw some people say the Giants were getting the #1 pick last year, but most predicted about a 5 or 6 win season. Many people on the other side had the 49ers as their "surprise team" and picked them to win the west. The 49ers could very easily be a 1-4 or win less team right now, with that 1 point win against the win less rams, and a close win over the Cards ( who are a better team).

The Giants come into this game averaging more yards on offense, and less against on defense. They are the flat out better team, they are at home, and the 49ers are a west coast team traveling east for a 1PM start. I love to fade those West coast teams in 1PM starts. It is physically much more difficult to play, and the 49ers are already the worse team.

I wasn't a very big Alex Smith fan, but I am really not a Trent Dilfer fan. Not only does Dilfer stink, but his skills set are a horrible match up against the Giants. He is old, slow, and could get killed against those pass rushers. He is a "game manager" playing in a situation that doesn't dictate Managing the game. The 49ers stud LT Jonas Jennings is hurt, and once again Osi will get to feast on some fresh meat ( Adam Snyder). The Giants should get at LEAST 5 sacks this game, and cause pressure. Pressure isn't just good for sacks and lost yards, but turnovers.

I don't see how the 49ers could score many points. I do like Frank Gore, but the Giants run D isn't bad allowing less than 100 per game. Even with Gore, the 49ers are still only averaging 3.9 for 86 rushing yards per game.

The 49ers passing offense is terrible though, at 117 yards per game, and 4.3 per pass. That is a complete joke! There are probably teams that have rushed for better than that. The QB stinks, the receivers aren't good, and they are trying to run a new system post Norv Turner.

Blowouts aren't always one teams offense kicking the crap out of an opponents defense. There are defensive led blowouts as well. What if the Giants keep kicking off or punting to San Fran... they start out at their 20... go 3 and out... punt to the Giants and give them good field position?

Once the Giants get a lead, I really don't believe in Dilfers arm to let the 49ers back into the game. I see the Giants let those pass rushers loose ( run down hill), and beat the 49ers by double digits.

The Giants have been starting off games slow ( weak 1st halfs), but they seem to make good adjustments and win the 2nd halfs. I'd like to see the Giants get more aggressive in this game, let the 49ers still on West coast time, have to play behind and let Dilfer try and beat them with his arm. Giants win by double digits.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Week 6, 5-2 ATS +12 units the past 3 weeks.

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATs, 0-0 ML +2 units
Season = +1.25 units

I've been 5-2-1 ATS, 1-0 ML for +12 units the past 3 weeks. I got destroyed with Philly the first couple of weeks, but have settled down since then. I felt bad after Buffalo two weeks ago but otherwise it was looking real good.

Week 6 Card
Cincy @ KC +4 ( bet ed) 3 units (Sucker bet)
St. Louis @ Baltimore -9.5 (Bet Ed) 2 units
New England -6 @ Dallas (bodog) 2 units
Tennessee +3 @ Tampa Bay (bodog) 1 unit
Washington @ Green Bay -3 (bodog)1 unit
New York Giants @ Atlanta( units depending on how sunday goes)

Marvin Lewis is an overrated defensive coach, with a stud quarterback/offense. If he didn't have Carson Palmer bailing him out, he would have been fired years ago.

The Bengals defense is giving up a whopping 5.3 ypc run ( 153 game)7.1 yp pass (251 game)the defense actually gets worse on the road giving up 6 yards per run.

If you are Larry Johnson, you have to be licking your chops against that Bengals run defense. He has zero touchdowns on the year thus far, and often times when you are matched up against such inferior competition, you are just licking your chops expecting a big day. I'd say that Johnson is an excellent fantasy start, and I think he will have 100+ yards and 2 touchdowns.

Herm Edwards likes to run the boring, conservative, mistake free offense, and that might be all he needs against these Bengals. I am sure they would be happy just getting 5 yards a pop and moving the chains.

On the other side of the ball, you have Carson Palmer and his dynamic offense. The Bengals have been starting a 3rd down scat back as Rudi Johnson has been hurt, but the Bengals strength is passing the ball.

I think the Chiefs defense has gone from terrible a few years ago, to not so bad today. I even think they looked alright at home. The Chiefs Defense only gives up 173 passing yards per game which is pretty good. They have 2 of the best corners in the game with Law and Surtain, and they have 2 good defensive ends in Allen and Hali. You put that defense in front of one of the best home field advantages in sports, and they are even better against the pass. Jared Allen owned big Bryant Mckinnie a few weeks ago, and Tamba Hali is a freak of nature on the other side. Playing in KC is real hard for the opponents tackles as far as the snap count goes. It gives those Chiefs ends an extra advantage, and you have to figure that Palmer will be passing a lot, and calling a lot of audiles against that noise.

The public loves offense and is pounding the Bengals because they feel they are "due" for a win. I like the fact that KC has kept their games pretty close, they are better at home, and they they will try and run that conservative offense that will be efficient ( not turn the ball over), and keep Carson Palmer off the field. On the other side of the ball, I think the Chiefs defense matches up well with the Bengals ( good pass D vs good Passing O), and they are more likely to force turnovers. Teams that win the turnover battle win games. I also like the fact that I got this line at +4. Call it a sucker bet, and let this home dog bark LOUD. 100 yards and 2 TD for Larry Johnson.
St. Louis has been a horrible team this year that has lost every single game. They were off when they were healthy, and then they got hurt. They stunk when they were hurt, and now they are on the road.

I am not going to get as in depth about this game, but there are different blowouts, and this would be the more defense/turnover induced blowout. Gus Ferotte and Brian Lenoard are up against a rough Ravens defense. The Rams are only averaging 5 points per game on the road and they are turnover prone vs the Baltimore head hunters. Just look at the Ravens defense after an interception or fumble recovery, they aren't just happy to get the ball, they players block and form a cartel to lead the playmaker to the end zone.

The Rams defense isn't very good either. You know, I think the Rams have some decent players with Glover, Little, Carriker, Weatherspoon, but the reason why they have problems is that they just aren't very good tacklers. The Rams are giving up 4.5 per run ( 145 yards per game) and you have to like that if you are Willis Mcghee.

Once again, I think if you are Baltimore this is more of the type of game where you play your game, and let the Rams poor tackling beat themselves. The Ravens don't have to get "cute" on offense, but just run your normal offense and let the Rams beat themselves. The offense should be getting good field position and I wouldn't be surpised if the Ravens surpassed their season high point total of 26. Sometimes when a mediocre offense plays a bad defense they want to run the score up more, and Brian Billeck certainly has the ego. I really don't like betting on the egotistical Brian Billeck, but this is a bet on the Ravens defense. I also like the fact that these teams are out of conference foes ( Ravens at home), which means it comes more down to talent, and it's less about knowing your divisional opponent. Ravens in a route.
I Like the Patriots in the game many are calling the mini super bowl. Dallas has exceeded all expectations, while the Patriots have beat everybody like they were expected too.

The Patriots have been a perfect 5-0 ATS, and have won every single game in blowout fashion of 17 points or more. Dallas has somewhat surprised people with a 5-0 record and I see them losing this one.

I correctly predicted this spread at 6, and I will correctly pick the Patriots to win and cover.

The Patriots look like a super bowl champion team with at least a 14-2 record ( some think they will go undefeated). If it weren't for my very heavy NFL futures on the Pats, I would probably play this higher. I will admit that I am surprised at how fast BB and Tom Brady have integrated a whole new crop of receivers into that offense with so many reads. You have to really credit Randy Moss and Wes Welker with being smart players, and Stallworth with playing in the Eagles West coast offense last year. You would have maybe expected interceptions or bad plays based on guys running the wrong routes, but not with these guys. Their coach in the sweat shirt has everybody ready and focused... The Patriots are all about execution.

Dallas had trouble with Buffalo last week and they will certainly be pumped for this game, but will that be enough?I see the Patriots following their format of being aggressive early, building a lead throwing the ball, and then trying to play those 2 TE big sets and shorten the game and try and force turnovers. You also can't ignore the coaching advantage the Patriots have. In fact, I'd give the patriots the edge in offense, defense, coaching, and maybe even special teams. The Cowboys will be playing at home, but the Patriots are a real good road team that doesn't seem to lose focus on the road. I know the Points pread seems a little high, but a little bit of it can be negated by the predicted high total. The Patriots have won every game by 17, and I don't think it would be too much of a stretch to see them only win by 7 or more. The Patriots are the quality team that you either bet on, or don't bet the game at all.
Vince Young and the Titans have been a covering machine at 13-3 in their last 16 ATS. Vince Young has been everything a mobile quarterback " should be", and he seems to thrive in underdog roles. I had a long write up about Vince Young and I do like watching him and believe he is a strong leader that makes his teammates better.

The other underrated part about the Titans is that their defense has quietly improved a lot too. I'd at least partially credit that to one of best coaches in the game ( Jeff Fisher). The Titans are only giving up 71 Yards per game on the ground (3.7 per run), and just over 200 per game passing ( under 6 yards per pass).

I do believe in Jeff Garcia as a quarterback, but he will be handing off to the teams 3rd string running back, and playing behind a poor offensive line. Even a smart quarterback like Garcia playing in a west coast offense will still have trouble with that weak offensive line.I see this as a low scoring game, and I see the Titans as a live dog getting 3 points.
Green Bay is coming off that tough loss against the Bears on National TV and is looking to get back on track. I would expect the Pack to go over ball security so that they won't turn the ball over so much ( and the Redskins aren't big in take aways). The Packers shot themselves in the foot with all those turnovers against the Bears.

The Redskins played against a similar offense in the Eagles and held them to 13 points, but Mcnabb was really off that game, and the Eagles had the ball in the Red zone 5 times and didn't score 1 touchdown. You have to give the Redskins some credit for that, but you also have to at least partially blame Mcnabb for missing open receivers. The Eagles " could have" potentially had 35 points in that game, but instead only had 13.

It looked like the Redskins played a lot of man coverage that game, which tends to be more feast/famine. The Redskins back 7 isn't that bad, but their problem lies in their pass rush.

The Redskins pass rush was ok last week, because
1) The Lions don't really have a run attack
2) The Lions run deeper routes that take more time to develop
3) The Redskins were lining their defensive tackles up in the C gap, to rush the passer, and ignoring the run.... but Mike Martz still didn't try and run, even the redskins were daring them to run right up the gut.

I give Green Bay an advantage of having the Eagle game tape to see how the Redskins respond in certain situations. Also throw in the fact that their leader ( Marcus Washington is out, and Phillip Daniels probably is too). I don't think Daniels is any good, but he just makes them one player less deep on what could be an unseasonably warm sunday.

I think Jason Campbell is way overrated from his performance against the Lions. He was throwing screens and a whole bunch of passes 5 yards and under in the flats which up his completion percentage. Mark Brunell had a game against Houston last year where he hit 26 straight completions of dinks and dunks.

I guess I counted 4 balls that Jason completed past 10 yards, and two of them were still low risk throws off of play action to wide open Redskins. Sure his numbers looked great, but when you throw a 1 yard slant to Antwain Randel El and he picks up 37 yards, then how much credit should that quarterback really get? I don't see Jason Campbell as a terrible awful player, but I really see Joe Gibbs trying to keep the training wheels on and run that "Horizontal offense" where it doesn't require a lot of risky throws downfield. Gibbs would rather try and win games with his power rushing attack, and defense.

The Packers are also a team that runs a lot of man/man coverage on defense. They have 2 good corners in Woodson and Harris, and they will be matched up against two gimpy injured redskins in Randel El and Moss. I would expect the Redskins to continue to run that Horizontal offense with lots of short throws to the backs in the flat, and tight end Cooley. If Green Bay can keep the Redskins rushing at bay, they could get a lot of 3 and outs with those dump off on 3rd and long. The Packers are giving up 4 YPC on defense, but only 2.9 YPC at home. Washington also has to cope with those huge losses on the O-Line of Jansen and Thomas.

Picking a 3 point spread is basically picking who is going to win the game. I see Green Bay getting it done at home after that awful loss to the Bears where they turned the ball over. Washington hasn't been good at forcing turnovers, and the Redskins offense will be facing better competition this week.
Minny @ Chicago - The line should be lower, but I really want to fade Tavaras Jackson, but I don't want to play the Bears as favorites after that big SNF win as dogs. I think Minnys D is aight too.
Houston @ Jax - I think Jax is the better team, but Houston isn't bad on offense or defense and that is a lot of points.
Philly @ Jets - Jets are a home dog, and the public loves Philly. Philly should route the horrible Jets, but I like the games I played better.
Car @ Zona - I'd love to fade David Carr, and Zonas defense is underrated, and their offense can actually run the ball this year, but Warner is turnover prone.

Friday, October 05, 2007

Week 5, 5 finger discount

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 +7 units
Season = -.75 units

Congrats to all who rode me week 4, and it sucks for those who faded me.

Week 5 card
Arizona -3 @ St. Louis ( 1 unit)(beted)
NY Jets @ NY Giants -3 ( 1 unit)(beted)
Detroit @ Deadskins -3 ( bought hook) 1 unit

Zona is 4-0 ATS and certainly a better team than people think. I was going to ride them last week against the Steelers as a home dog, but I tried to once again " keep it simple stupid".
The Rams are 0-4 and have major injuries on offense. I have been watching these teams all year, and the rams are in trouble.

Even when Bulger was in there, the Rams didn't look like the Rams. They weren't getting much on the ground, they weren't in good sync passing the ball ( as far as timing goes), it just looked ugly. Now you take away a dominant LT in Pace, Bulger at QB, Jackson at RB, and Bruce is hurt and might not play. Do you really want to bet on Gus Ferrit ( the guy who injures himself) and a rookie RB from Rutgers? In Rams first game of the year against Carolina, they were still pretty close late in the game, but the fans just gave up on that team. The Rams defense isn't very good, and the offense is trying out new unproven bodies.

The reason why this line is +3.5 at many places, is because the books think that the rams are "due" for a better performance, not because they think this will be a FG game or anything. If you like the Rams in this spot, take them ML.

Detroit at Deadskins -3.
I think the Deadskins win this game due to turnovers. If you were to pull up the Lions TO differential, they are listed as (+1), but they really got 4 cheap turnovers against that terrible quarterback Tavaras Jackson in Minnesota. I mean, the turd was tossing out pop flies to the Lions defenders that you usually don't see at the pro level. The Lions also got some picks from Brian Greasy in his first start in years last week. So the Lions were fortunate enough to find 7 turnovers on the weak links of NFL Quarterbacks.

Lions 13 take aways ( over inflated thanks to Tavaras and Greasy)
Lions 12 give aways and I do see that as a repeatable thing.

Joe Gibbs has been playing that whole boring, conservative Martyball/Herm Edwards football. He has a young flawed quarterback in Jason Campbell, and he has taken the ball out of his hands as much as he could by turning his offense into a bunch of screen passes to his runningbacks, with that occasional deep ball thrown down field.

Above average quarterbacks will carve this lions defense apart, but Jason isn't that guy. He is a boring Trent Dilfer-like quarterback that the "local" fans in DC love. Joe Gibbs will hide jason with an entire offense centered on passes 10 yards and shorter, while he tries to attack with his running backs.

You would figure that the Lions move the ball in this game, while washington runs that boring conservative offense that waits for you to make mistakes. This is more of a fade on the Lions than a play on washington. Gibbs will try and keep it close and let that defense gambel a little bit on turnovers.

Jets at Gints.
I really wanted to get into a long lesson about "home field advantage" before capping this game. Home field isn't as much about how far you travel or how many fans you have in the stands, but it is about "focus".

For the first time ever, those Jets will be in the VISITORS locker room, standing on the other side of the field, with the endzone painted for the Giants. If the Jets weren't the 2nd class team of NY in the first place, they will certainly be sunday. I know that this isn't your typical road game, but it is not like they are playing a "real" home game.

When you play a home game, you usually sleep in your own bed ( not a hotel bed), you are used to the weather, you don't have to travel, you don't have a million other things to worry about. You know the field, the background, the stands, and everything. Visitors have all sorts of other things to focus on that are not even related to the play the coach calls. Some people can win on the road, some people have trouble focusing.

I know the public like the Giants in this one, but the public isn't always wrong. The Giants have an offense and they are working out their kinks on defense.

Pennys arm doesn't scare anybody, and if the Giants don't have a threat to honor downfield ( like the Washington game), they can cover that more conservative offense the Jets run ( and redskins ran).

The Jets run defense isn't that great, which is a great time for that big bowling ball Brandon Jacobs to potentially come back for the G-Unit.

The Giants are 2-2, with their only two losses against undefeated teams. The Blue New York team will clearly be the better team on the field, and they will treat their pesky little brother green team as such.

I am headed out of town for the weekend, but I am going to hopefully get back for the 4pm games to maybe add some plays. Good luck.

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