Sunday, October 21, 2007

Week 7

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATs, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Season = +8.25 units

Although I didn't get a play in on the Giants MNF game last week. I probably shouldn't even count that. It was an undefeated week last week, and that big week I was looking for. I don't like the card as much this week.

Week 7 card
Tampa + 3 ( bodog, bought 1/2 point) 2 units
Giants -9 ( bodog) 2 units
Jaguars +3.5 ( units depending on the first 2 games)

Tampa +2.5
Tampa is the flat out better team here. I know Detroit is better at home ( as opposed to the road), but this matchup of the old NFC Central favors the Bucs.

One of the things I like about this match up is that Jeff Garcia and the Bucs have allowed a league best 6 giveaways. Garcia has only thrown 1 interception ( League best), and they have lost 5 fumbles.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa has caused 12 turnovers ( tied for 3rd best in the NFC). They have 7 picks on D, and 5 fumbled recovered. The 5 fumbles cancel each other out, and it basically means the Bucs are a lot more likely to pick off opposing quarterbacks, than opponents pick off Garcia. All of that leads the Bucs to have the #1 turnover differential in the NFC at +6.

Why do I bring up turnovers? I bring up turnovers because the Bucs are playing a turnover prone team in Detroit. The Stats don't show that the Lions have 4 easy picks against Tavaras Jackson, but they also have 14 give aways ( near the bottom of the pack.)

Detroit is obviously a one dimensional passing team, and they do have the better offense, but the Bucs strength on D is stopping the pass. The Bucs only allow 5.7 yards per pass for under 200 yards per game.

I know people like the Marinelli angle, but in all honesty the guy was just their D-Line coach. He wasn't calling plays, he wasn't even the 2nd or 3rd in command, he was just a fiery guy that Matt Millen brought in instill some discipline. He is more of a figure head, and less of a genius of any sort. If you want to look at a revenge angle, look no further than Jeff Garcia. The guy was in the NFL grave yard known as Detroit, and he would like nothing better than to show that city up. I think the Bucs win outright, better team, better defense, better QB, better coach, and I am happier to get the 3 points.

Giants -9
The Giants have won their last 4 games by 7, 13, 11, 21 or an average of 13 points. San Fran in that same stretch has gone 1-3 and averaged a double digit loss. I was higher on the Giants than pretty much anyone this season as I pegged them at 10-6 and a playoff team. I saw some people say the Giants were getting the #1 pick last year, but most predicted about a 5 or 6 win season. Many people on the other side had the 49ers as their "surprise team" and picked them to win the west. The 49ers could very easily be a 1-4 or win less team right now, with that 1 point win against the win less rams, and a close win over the Cards ( who are a better team).

The Giants come into this game averaging more yards on offense, and less against on defense. They are the flat out better team, they are at home, and the 49ers are a west coast team traveling east for a 1PM start. I love to fade those West coast teams in 1PM starts. It is physically much more difficult to play, and the 49ers are already the worse team.

I wasn't a very big Alex Smith fan, but I am really not a Trent Dilfer fan. Not only does Dilfer stink, but his skills set are a horrible match up against the Giants. He is old, slow, and could get killed against those pass rushers. He is a "game manager" playing in a situation that doesn't dictate Managing the game. The 49ers stud LT Jonas Jennings is hurt, and once again Osi will get to feast on some fresh meat ( Adam Snyder). The Giants should get at LEAST 5 sacks this game, and cause pressure. Pressure isn't just good for sacks and lost yards, but turnovers.

I don't see how the 49ers could score many points. I do like Frank Gore, but the Giants run D isn't bad allowing less than 100 per game. Even with Gore, the 49ers are still only averaging 3.9 for 86 rushing yards per game.

The 49ers passing offense is terrible though, at 117 yards per game, and 4.3 per pass. That is a complete joke! There are probably teams that have rushed for better than that. The QB stinks, the receivers aren't good, and they are trying to run a new system post Norv Turner.

Blowouts aren't always one teams offense kicking the crap out of an opponents defense. There are defensive led blowouts as well. What if the Giants keep kicking off or punting to San Fran... they start out at their 20... go 3 and out... punt to the Giants and give them good field position?

Once the Giants get a lead, I really don't believe in Dilfers arm to let the 49ers back into the game. I see the Giants let those pass rushers loose ( run down hill), and beat the 49ers by double digits.

The Giants have been starting off games slow ( weak 1st halfs), but they seem to make good adjustments and win the 2nd halfs. I'd like to see the Giants get more aggressive in this game, let the 49ers still on West coast time, have to play behind and let Dilfer try and beat them with his arm. Giants win by double digits.

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