Pro Football Picks

OVER 53 ( 5 units)

Vikings @ Saints. One team will score at LEAST 30 points, probably closer to 40, and the other guy might not be that far behind. I do think this line will move up to 54, 55, 56 by kickoff, and you could sell it and hope for a middle if you'd like.

The Vikings shit stomped Dallas, wish I put more on them.

Put me down on the SD ML to win 1 more unit.

The Colts came through yesterday with the win and the ATS win, I'm thinking about employing the same strategy with the Chargers in the late game ( favorites have been doing well as I thought at least 3 of them would win/cover).

Vikings -2.5 ( 1 unit)

Dallas is good at running the ball, the Vikings have a good d-line.
Minny's D is overall better at home.
The Vikings are undefeated at home
The Vikings are rested
Dallas lost 3 games on the road
Dallas is suddenly getting a LOT of hype right now by the media

Favre going back to the deep South for the NFCC game is a great storyline.

Broke even in game 1...

Colts -6.5 ( 1 unit)
Colts ML 2.5 units to win 1 unit.

The early part of this game is going to be VERY important, but I pick the Clits to win.

Saints -4.5 2nd half ( 1 unit)

The game is over.

Got toasted last week.

Start me off with Arizona +7 ( 1 unit)

I'd love to have a low scoring 1st half and pound the 2nd half over... To me it isn't even just about the Saints losing their last 3 games, the game before that was a FG win over a Chris Redman Falcons team, the game before that was a 3 point win against the Deadskins. That's 5 weeks of weak play in a row.

I do think the Saints probably win but I'd like to buy back at halftime with a decent start from the Cards...

The thing I like is that if the Cards fall behind and it turns into a 1 dimensional game, Warner will be about the least effected QB in the league because he's USED to that and he played a perfect game last week. Warner has made his lunch playing well in the playoffs...

I'll take the live dog +7 for now...

Add Packers -2.5 (2.5 units)
Add Packers ML (2.5 units)

Today has been a terrible day so far with the Patriots. They were my lock of the week and they lost.

Patriots 2nd half -7 ( 2.5 units)

It's not looking good so far, I'm shocked.

ADD

5 Units Patriots ML to win 2.5 units

Jets +3 ( win 1 unit)
Eagles +3.5 ( Lose 1 unit)
Prop bet, Crayton more WR Yards than Maclin ( Lose 1 unit)

Patriots ML 5 units
Patriots -3 1 unit
GB - 1 1 unit

GL

Jets +3 ( bought hook)
Eagles +3.5
Patriots -3
Packers -1 ( this line was +2.5 earlier in the week, should have bought then)
All for 1 unit

Prop bet: WR with most yards ( 1 unit)
Jermey Maclin
Patrick Crayton +12.5

Crayton had about 50 more yards in last weeks game, and plus Maclin is nursing an injury...


I placed 1 unit on all my bets NOW, but I will probably add based on what happens. I fully plan on putting MORE on the Patriots, the best bet of the week.

2-0 so far, glad I didn't mess around with the Jagoffs either.

ADD: 1.25 units on the Eagles +3

If Philly wins, it will be huge because I have futures for them to win it all too and they'd get a bye and then to host a playoff game. I can't wait for this Eagles/Dallas game!

I hate week 17, who'se playing, who'se sitting guys, which team mails it in etc.

My 3 leans for the 1 PM games were 3 road favorites
Bears, Falcons, Jags

Jags: NO PLAY
I was watching NFL playbook and decided to cut the Jags. Their run defense was destroyed by New England ( not really a running team), Cleveland has a new found run game, they suck on the road, Garrard isn't good on the road, they are a Florida team traveling north in the cold, and the Browns have won 3 games in a row. If you stuck a gun to my head I still say the Jags win, but that's too many road favorites.

Falcons -1: 1.25 units
Everybody is on the Falcons. The Bucs pulled off a lucky win over the Saints, their running backs are hurt, and the Falcons have Matt Ryan back. The Falcons ONLY won by 3 at home vs the Bucs with a last second touchdown pass by Chris Redman ( but Matt Ryan wasn't playing). The Bucs had 6 sacks in that game and the odds makers are counting on the Bucs to play strong at home.

I disagree. Even thought the match up was "close" last game, the Bucs do have an offensive line, I trust Matt Ryan a whole lot more than Chris Redman or Josh Freeman. He'll probably get sacked less, Michael Turner MIGHT play, and the Bucs are not a good football team. The Falcons are fighting to go 8-8 ( coaches care about stuff like that), and even though the odds makers don't care that the public is pouring in on Atlanta, I think the Public wins.


Bears -3, 1.25 units
The Bears are in a historically crappy spot. Last week they were a home dog that won outright that is favored this week. They are a road favorite and NOT a good football team, but they are playing one of the 3 worst teams in the NFL. Jay Cutler seemed to at least a little bit be on the same page with his WR's, Tommy Harris played, and the Lions are terrible. I hope Drew Stanton starts at QB because he will be just as mistake prone as Cutler ( probably more), but won't have the upside to go with it.

I know the history is against teams in the situation the Bears are in and the books expect a let down but the Lions are bad, and they haven't even been small under dogs this year. Look at all their games, they are 10 point dogs, 14 point dogs in nearly every game. How will they respond to being (only) 3 point dogs? I think the Lions are WORSE than the books do, and that yeah, the Bears MIGHT let down this week, but they are the better team and should win. With Cutler etc., they should try and build chemistry with their WR's and play hard.

I'm hoping to go 2-0 with these games... maybe some halftime adds, and I do want to bet on the Eagles at 4:15. Depending on what happens early, I'll decide how much to take Philly +3 with. ( considering SD and maybe GB/Arizona game as well).

GL. I hate week 17, the playoffs should be fun though.