Sunday, January 03, 2010

Week 17

I hate week 17, who'se playing, who'se sitting guys, which team mails it in etc.

My 3 leans for the 1 PM games were 3 road favorites
Bears, Falcons, Jags

I was watching NFL playbook and decided to cut the Jags. Their run defense was destroyed by New England ( not really a running team), Cleveland has a new found run game, they suck on the road, Garrard isn't good on the road, they are a Florida team traveling north in the cold, and the Browns have won 3 games in a row. If you stuck a gun to my head I still say the Jags win, but that's too many road favorites.

Falcons -1: 1.25 units
Everybody is on the Falcons. The Bucs pulled off a lucky win over the Saints, their running backs are hurt, and the Falcons have Matt Ryan back. The Falcons ONLY won by 3 at home vs the Bucs with a last second touchdown pass by Chris Redman ( but Matt Ryan wasn't playing). The Bucs had 6 sacks in that game and the odds makers are counting on the Bucs to play strong at home.

I disagree. Even thought the match up was "close" last game, the Bucs do have an offensive line, I trust Matt Ryan a whole lot more than Chris Redman or Josh Freeman. He'll probably get sacked less, Michael Turner MIGHT play, and the Bucs are not a good football team. The Falcons are fighting to go 8-8 ( coaches care about stuff like that), and even though the odds makers don't care that the public is pouring in on Atlanta, I think the Public wins.

Bears -3, 1.25 units

The Bears are in a historically crappy spot. Last week they were a home dog that won outright that is favored this week. They are a road favorite and NOT a good football team, but they are playing one of the 3 worst teams in the NFL. Jay Cutler seemed to at least a little bit be on the same page with his WR's, Tommy Harris played, and the Lions are terrible. I hope Drew Stanton starts at QB because he will be just as mistake prone as Cutler ( probably more), but won't have the upside to go with it.

I know the history is against teams in the situation the Bears are in and the books expect a let down but the Lions are bad, and they haven't even been small under dogs this year. Look at all their games, they are 10 point dogs, 14 point dogs in nearly every game. How will they respond to being (only) 3 point dogs? I think the Lions are WORSE than the books do, and that yeah, the Bears MIGHT let down this week, but they are the better team and should win. With Cutler etc., they should try and build chemistry with their WR's and play hard.

I'm hoping to go 2-0 with these games... maybe some halftime adds, and I do want to bet on the Eagles at 4:15. Depending on what happens early, I'll decide how much to take Philly +3 with. ( considering SD and maybe GB/Arizona game as well).

GL. I hate week 17, the playoffs should be fun though.

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