Sunday, November 25, 2007


Brutal Brutal day so far...

Add me the New England Patriots -24 for 1 unit vs AJ Feeley.


My two 1 PM games look horrible right now...

ADD: Tennesse -1.5 2nd half ( 1 unit) -105
ADD: Houston Pick'em 2nd half ( 1 unit) +105
ADD: New York Giants -7.5 2nd half ( 1 unit)
ADD: Deadskins -.5 2nd half ( 1 unit)

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Sunday Plays

Right now I am adding to that 2-1 turkey day... I have am sorry that I have been doing more recaps than previews, but that's the way it is right now...

Minny @ New York Giants -7 ( 2 units)
Deadskins +3 @ Fucaneers ( 2 units)
69ers @ Arizona -10 ( 2 units, bought half point)

- Giants are underrated at home and Tavaras Jackson is the worst starter in the league.
- The Redskins opened up their offense the last 2 weeks and lost, they will be a live dog in this game.
- Frank Gore is banged up, and the Trent Dilfer led 49ers have a terrible offense that puts them in position to lose by a lot of points.

I might be looking at some 2nd half wagers and the Pats sunday night game as well.


- Jeff Fisher and Mike Shannihan are two of my favorite coaches ( and two of the best). I find it interesting that Shanny called Fisher about a scouting report on Jay Cutler before the draft a couple of years ago.
- You can't help but root for Vince Young after hearing the piece about his father.
- Brandon Marshall continues to impress me in every Denver game I watch. He sorts of reminds me of his teammate Javon Walker. He had an outstanding block in traffic on the long HALL run for a touchdown. If it weren't for that block that play probably doesn't happen. 10 Titans were blocked and Hall sheds the tackle which allows him to scamper along for the long run. Give Shanny credit for a great play design that allows his players to succeed.
- I always liked Selvin Young in college, the guy runs the ball like he was shot out of a cannon and he should be happy he landed in Denver.
- The thing I didn't like was the ice the kicker play on a 50+ yard field goal. The kick is hard as it is so the effect of icing him probably isn't that great. Especially at the end of the half half. I think that was just coach doing what coach is supposed to do.
- I still believe that the true meaning of icing the kicker is ideally when the game is on the line, the kick is very make-able, the team is driving down the field and everybody knows that kick is coming ( people already start to ASSUME that kicker will make it). As the pressure mounts and the kicker sets up ready to be the hero or the goat, THEN you call that final time out to make him think about it some more.
- Tim Crowder and Marcus Thomas played alright for Denver.

- I was very happy that the 13 point dog comes out and starts the game off with a drive that takes up over half the first quarter and then puts 3 points up on the board. The 3 points are good, but shortening the game by cutting 25% of the first half away is good.
- I was very happy for the Falcons defensive stop, and then to have the 13 point home dog grab a commanding 10-0 lead at home.
- I routinely talk about how bad some of these announcer are. I can't stand JC Pearson, Soloman Wilcots, Tony Kornheiser, and Joe Buck but Bryant Gumbel and Chris Collinsworth have to be the worst team.
- Huge hit by A. Bethea causes first INT of Laurent Robinson catch/drop.
- Michael Boley does seem to be a young up and coming linebacker for ATL. I have heard people hyping him up and I see it. He seems to be one of the lone bright spots for the Falcons this season.
- Colts went after Rookie Falcons Corner Chris Houston, he started off OK but was exposed later in the game.
- D. Hall is overrated ( to himself) and I would never want that cancer on my team.
- Joey Harrington picked on a play where he thought Laurent Robinson was going to run the square in but he kept running deep. This is why coaches don't want to play rookie wide outs. It isn't so much about talent, but reading defenses ( yes receivers have to). Harrington will be pegged with the pick in his stats, but I'd bet that the mistake was on the rookie wide out and not the veteran QB. That play also helps illustrate the power that the Colts have had by keeping their offense together for years ( you usually don't see these mental mistakes).
- Bryant Gumbel posed the question, "Why isn't Dungy at genius?" Are you kidding me? The guy has nothing to do with the offense and the offense is why they finally won the super bowl. If you took Peyton Manning off his roster, they are a 4-12 team. If you removed Dungy from the coaching staff, Coach Manning and the Colts don't miss a beat. It is almost against my religion to admit that a player is worth more than the coach, but Peyton Manning is the greatest quarterback of all-time and certainly worth more than the mediocre Dungy. Peyton is truly a special player.
- I had commented that this game was pegged at Indy scoring about 27-28, and the Falcons scoring 13 or 14. I thought the Falcons could outplay their expectations by a little bit ( and they started to), but the game ended up as it was intended to give me a 2-1 Turkey Day.

Thursday, November 22, 2007


It looks like Dallas is cleaning up to put me at 2-0...

I really have to credit Princeton graduate Jason Garret with the play calling in Dallas and their big offensive line. Romo and TO are getting a lot of credit ( as they should), but that strong coaching and offensive line is also quietly fueling that team. If it weren't for that coaching staff and O-Line calling good plays and blocking the guys up front, then the big plays wouldn't happen. Dallas's offense is known to be explosive and good in the passing game, but I also see them running a pretty efficient operation.

The other thing I noticed about this game was a lot of jawing in the back 7 of the secondaries. It reminds me of being a player with all that trash talking, the " I see you number 81", the big hits and the individual match ups involved in the passing game. It also reminds me that I don't like Ken Hamlin.

My final turkey day play is going to be Atlanta +13 for 1 unit

The way the odds are set up, the books peg this at about a 28-14 Colts victory. That is fine but home field advantage is going to be huge on this short week, and the Colts are on their second consecutive road game.

The Falcons have had a rough and controversial season so far, but playing well on national TV is their super bowl since the playoffs are out of the question.

I actually don't think the Falcons are THAT bad at home, and I do like Joey Harrington and that dink and dunk offense a heck of a lot more than the big lazy complainer Byron Leftwich.

I think that the Falcons could do a little better than the 13 or 14 points they are supposed to score, and I think the Colts offense has been having huge problems and they might not get to the 27 or 28 they are expected to score.

The Colts will probably try and run addai against a suspect falcons D, and the falcons will probably try and Gamble to stop the run ( because Aaron Moorehead doesn't deserve to be in the league). Throwing passes to backup tight ends can't last forever.

Atlanta +13 for 1 unit. Happy Thanksgiving as I have to work on the 4 pies we have. Coconut custard, apple crumb pie, chocolate with whiped cream and Pecan pie!

- The Lions kept trying to go to Calvin Johnson and he looked like a rookie. He has outstanding potential, but I wasn't impressed with his first half.
- I did like the Lions center Dominic Raoila. The guy was getting into Packers faces, he was pushing, shoving and fighting until that whistle was blown. I like gritty hard players like that who will fight and think that losing isn't an option.
- The Lions kept single teaming Michael Strahan last week and let him sack Kitna 3 times, this week they are only single teaming Aaron Kampman. Kampman has been disrespected his whole career, and even after making the probowl the guy still doesn't get the respect he deserves. He did make the Lions pay with multiple sacks.
- Which leads to the next point that Kitna is tough, and that in a Mike Martz offense a tough quarterback is neccesary. He doesn't leave as many blockers so that he can send as many guys out there in pass routes. It reminds me of Steve Spurrier with the Redskins and the beating that his quarterback Patrick Ramsey took.
- Kitna takes a beating and is tough, but geez is that guy ugly as sin.
- I don't understand how Joe Buck is giving Favre credit now, when a couple of years ago he was one of the people calling Favre " Old" and more or less washed up.

I always believed in Favre and said that he could keep playing for YEARS. It's not like he's old and boring or anything... He just didn't have the talent in the last couple of years. The guy still has a rocket arm, thinks quick, and can move around. People wanted Favre to retire 2 years ago, but I think he can still play 3 more years if he wanted. Remember Rich Gannon was the leages MVP at 39 years old.

QB isn't as much about physical skills as it is intelligence and older players are usually smarter than younger players. Not only that, but it's not like Favre doesn't have an arm to go together with that brain.

Next up... Dallas Cowboys -14 ( 1 unit)
Happy Turdunken day.

Week 11/Thanksgiving

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Week 7 1-2-0 ATS. 0-0 ML -1 unit
Week 8 3-0-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 9 units
Week 9 3-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 10 5-2-0 ATS, 0-1 ML +4 units
Week 11 4-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 3 units
Season = +25.25 units

Early posting for Thanksgiving
The first game I took was New York Giants - 7 for 2 units, but I need to post a Turkey day pick.

I will play and see how it goes today, but start me off win Green Bay -3.5 for 1 unit.


Week 10 Recap
- Giants -2.5 @ Detroit ( 3 units) WIN
-Chicago @ Seattle -5.5 ( 2 units) WIN
- SD @ Jags -3 ( 1 units) WIN
- Miami @ Philly -9.5 ( 1 unit) WIN
Tease: Philly -2.5, Pitt -2.5 ( 2 units) LOSS
- Giants/Lions 2nd Half Over 23 ( 1 unit) LOSS
- Deadskins @ Dallas -11 ( 1 unit) LOSS
= 4-3 ATS + 3 units

I was +3 units because my larger wagers won. I ended up adding Dallas late and I was going to add New England but I liked being up 3 units and didn't want to risk it. I guess if you want to play that game I also leaned on the Titans and didn't play them so it's ok.

Here are some recaps
-Gibril Wilson with the opening kick off tackle. It seems like Gibril Wilson and Chase Blackburn make all the special teams tackles for the Giants.
- After the debacle in Arizona last week, the Lions said they would come out and run and they did. They ran on the first play and then followed it by running 4 straight plays to open the game. Even on 1st and 20 on their next series, the Lions opened it up with a run.
- The Lions hit a 20 yard pass to Shaun Mcdonald on 2nd and 19. Is Martz going to abandon the run now?
- Brandon Jacobs on a beast 34 yard run, the Fullback Hedgecock had a huge block on the play.
- Jacobs follows with an 18 yard run in which he punished the defender and got about an additional 10 yards after contact.
- The Lions are single teaming Michael Strahan on passing downs and he just easily beat the RT for the sack.
- On a pitch right to Kevin Jones, Kevin Dockery read the play immediately and turned the run play into a rare 5 yard loss. Nice play.
- Eli is spreading the ball around by hitting 7 different pass catchers early in the first half.
- The Giants offense held the ball for so long in this game and the Lions started out running the ball that the Lions passing offense never really got into a rhythm.
- Megatron CJ had an amazing TD catch over Kevin Dockery in which he pretty much had perfect coverage. Nice play by the rook.
- Kalimba Edwards had an amazing sack on Eli when he beat the LT Diehl.
- Bad call on the Justin Tuck penalty in crunch time... Let the boys play.

- Dallas looks explosive to start off the game.
- Early snap hits Romo in the face mask and ends up costing Dallas points.
- Jason Campbell looks so mechanical and has a slow windup. It makes me think of Tim Duncan in basketball with how mechanical he looks, only Jason isn't nearly good enough to draw comparison to Tim Duncan.
- Shawn Springs has got to be the biggest corner in the NFL. He looks more like a big safety on the field, and I saw him in person at Fair Oaks mall and thought he was a linebacker. One one side the Redskins have Fred Smooth who benched 225 twice at the combine, and on the other side you have this monster corner.
- On 4th and 1 Joe Gibbs doesn't even want the measurement. Conservative Joe sends his kicker right out onto the field so that he could miss that long kick.
- If Jason Campbell is mechanical, then Tony Romo is quick. He is jittery and snappy. After watching say Eli Manning, I can tell you that Romo is so quick in his drop back, he is bouncing around, avoiding pass rush, and he throws quick too. He is quick in his drop back, quick in his throws, and even quick in his responses to reporters. The guy can afford to smile because he has done the work. It is like the guy who studied hard and shows up at the midterm without fear. Then you have the guys that didn't study and are scared as hell. Romo smiles because he is prepared.
- 3rd and 15 and Romo hits Owns on a 20 yard pass pattern for a 1st down. What would Joe Gibbs do on 3rd and 15? Screen pass, draw?
- TD to Owens was on an audible by Romo... impressive. On a side note I don't think Jason Campbell ever audibles. I have seen plays that were run rights and he knew they weren't going to work but he still didn't have the authority to audible. Sometimes coaches don't want their players to audible because they don't trust them and feel those quarterbacks will abuse the powers.
- Jason Campbell is #2 in the league in fumbles ( which artificially raise his QB rating or worth).
- Reed Doughtery with a real dumb 51 yard penalty to just grab Craytons arms.
- 3rd and 19 Romo goes endzone and hits Owens. What would Gibbs do on 3rd and 19? Being conservative is fine when you ahve a super stacked team, but how often are coaches blessed with always having a more talented team?
- TO scores his 3rd TD and dunks the ball over the goal posts. He pissed on the cover 2 defense and ran right inbetween it.
- TO is having a clinic with his 4th TD. The Redskins haven't thrown 4 TD passes to receivers all year!
- Jason Campbell was inaccurate on a lot of the non- screen pass throws. Some of them were completions, but if he led his receivers more he could have done much better.
- Jason Campbell throws the game losing pick to Terrance Newman and then complains to the Refs.
- Campbell actually had 2 chances to win the game here today and failed, and he had 2 chances to drive his team and win in Philly last week and he failed. That is 0/4. Usually a team gets 1 chance at the end of the game to go down and win it, but Campbell is 0/4 in his last 2 games when it counts.

- Eagles Flea Flicker TD called back.
- Ted Ginn with a long TD, nobody was even clost to tackling him.
- Mcnabb with his 2nd pick. Was he intending on throwing it away but it was just an inaccurate attempt?
- Feeley picked off by his former team at Goal line for the Eagles 3rd pick.
- Rich Gannon might be the best play by play guy. He announce the game like a QB and points out good stuff.
- Feeley doesn't see blitz and fumbles for 4th turnover, but it was called back for a defensive penalty.
- Eagles love that shovel pass in the red zone/ goal line situations.
- 4th and 1 and the Eagles J. Thomas stopped a run for a loss of 12.
- Eagles 4 minute offense runs the game out... This seemed like a fast game too.

Sunday, November 18, 2007


ADD: Dallas Cowboys -11 ( 1 unit)

Hopefully the best team in the NFC puts this game away early to get ready for turkey day.


ADD: NY Giants/Detroit Lions 2nd Half OVER 23 points ( 1 unit)

The Giants offense was moving the ball and would have had more points if not for the fumble, and key penalty. The Lions defense was on the field the whole first half and they will give up more points...

The Lions offense is a leopard that won't change it's stripes. Martz will throw the ball and pick up garbage yards/points when the game is pretty much already out of reach.

24 points would only mean a total of 34 points for these above average offenses in the dome.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Week 11

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Week 7 1-2-0 ATS. 0-0 ML -1 unit
Week 8 3-0-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 9 units
Week 9 3-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 10 5-2-0 ATS, 0-1 ML +4 units
Season = +22.25 units

My week 10 card is updated except that pending teaser won. It was for 3 units bit it won 2 units and change but I just counted it as a 2 unit win to help negate some of that juice. The only other comment I wanted to make was about how ridiculous the NBC broadcast in the dark was to raise energy awareness for global warming. Maybe next time they should tell Bob Costas and Keith Oberman to just broadcast the entire show in the pitch black.

Week 11 Card
- Giants -2.5 @ Detroit ( 3 units)
-Chicago @ Seattle -5.5 ( 2 units)
- SD @ Jags -3 ( 1 units)
- Miami @ Philly -9.5 ( 1 unit)
Tease: Philly -2.5, Pitt -2.5 ( 2 units)

The Giants defense leads the NFL is sacks, and Detroit leads the league in sacks given up. That is a good formula for turnovers. Detroit is an overrated team and the Giants have been crapped on by the NY media for their loss to Dallas ( people are talking about pulling Eli). The Lions said they are committed to running the ball more, but then there is the saying of a Leopard and his stripes. Detroit also has a big game against Green Bay on Turkey day that could be a factor. I see the Giants as the better team picking up the win.

Seattle -
Grossman takes a lot or risk, and that Seattle defense is underrated at home. I am glad this number is under 6, and I think Seattle wins this game.

Jags -
I still think with Garrard ( and a possible passing game) coming back, that the Jags are an underrated team. SD is coming off an emotional win, they haven't played that well on the road, and they are a West coast team traveling east for a 1PM kickoff. I am also not a big Phillip Rivers fan, and he will be matched up against a legit defense.

Philly - I think Philly is an underrated team that lost some close games. I see a team like Philly that could be 2-3 wins better than their record, and then I see a team like Detroit that could easily be 2-3 wins worse than their record. The Eagles should easily beat the weak Dolphins and especially with their rookie QB getting broken in. I like the Eagles to win by double digits, and I think they are a safe teaser at -2.5.

Steelers - The Steelers haven't been the best road team in the NFL ( which is why I am not taking them ATS), but they are a good match up for the Jets. Slick Willie and Davenport should shred that porous Jets run D, and the Steelers pass defense should give young Kellen Clemens fits. It might not be pretty, but the Steelers should at LEAST win by a field goal for a safer teaser.

Sorry for the short write ups ( I really do my home work though), and good luck making that money.

Some more Recap

- With all that Jaguars running, it had to be the fastest first half I've ever seen. It was hand off to MJD, hand off to Fred Taylor all day long which kept the clock running and made the first half slower and boring.
- I think the five yard delay of game penalty after a player spikes the ball in combination with the no team celebration after a touchdown has resulted in more players spiking the ball after scoring a touchdowns.
- The Titans had a play where they went for it on 4th and 1 and fumbled the ball. I noticed that it seems like there are more fumbles on average in goal line formations. I saw this a few weeks ago with Jeff Garcia among others fumbling in the red zone and the trend holds true today.
- Vincent Fuller drops an easy interception from Q. Gray, he had a couple Interceptions that were dropped.
- The Jags run a fake field goal, but Michael Griffen of the Titans had a nice stop on the play.
- Is Mike Peterson the best middle linebacker in the game? He had a key interception in Titans territory, and he is always flying around the ball making plays and big hits.
- Quinton Gray gets lucky again as Chris Hope almost picked off a dumb throw into double coverage.
- The Titans look like they are in a 4-4 defense with their extra safety in the box, when the Jags call a timely end around to Northcut for 20 yards.

- Sproles running back the opening kickoff was sick and it reminded me of Devon Hester running back the opening kick of the Super Bowl. Those Colt special teams are terrible and could end up costing this team.
- Shaun Phillips intercepts a Colts screen pass for Peyton Mannings rare 2nd interception of the season.
- Sproles with the Punt return for a touch down to give the Chargers a 16-0 lead. The Colt special team coverage sucks, but Adam Vinieteri's weak kickoffs to the 10 yard line aren't helping the process.
- Marcus Harris sacks Peyton Manning and then does a back flip with his pads on.
- Antonio Cromardie picks off Peyton Manning for his 3rd interception of the game.
- The Colts were screwed on the "inadvertent whistle", but the linebacker looked slow and gassed after a 100 yard sprint.
- Gene Speretor is a good ref.
- The Colts only have 17 active players on offense???
-- Antonio Cromarties 3rd interception of Peyton Manning was a sick 1 handed grab that his bum receiver Aaron Morehead could only dream of making.
- A few weeks ago I took the Jags at home against the Colts as I thought that game would look more like this one turned out. I thought the Colts were vulnerable on the road against a team with defensive talent and run game.
- "Mr Clutch" missed a 42 yard field goal, and the Colts later go for it on 4th and 2 ( make it), and then Manning throws his 5th INT of the game.
- Perfect 61 yard punt by SD to pin Indy deep.
- I feel bad for Norv Turner. The guy is always the butt of jokes, there are always negative things said about him, and people always talk about what he "can't" do. Do people always criticize Tony Dungy like that? Norv Turner is one of the best offensive coordinators out there, but people just love to shit on this guy. Tony Fungy is supposed to be a defensive guru but his defenses are crap ( ok, maybe a little bit better this year). People don't like Norv because he isn't a yeller rah rah guy, but Tony Dungy isn't and he gets praise. Maybe if Norv had Peyton Manning people would say that he has "silent strength" instead of talking about how lax he is. Maybe if Dungy had Phillip Rivers as his quarterback we'd be talking about how bad he is as a coach.
- Aaron Moorhead dropped what could have easily been the game winning touchdown. He has to be the worst receiver in the entire league. He'd probably be worse than most teams practice squads.
- I liked a late carry by Lorenzo Neal because the entire defense keyed on LT and his movement.
- I wasn't impressed by Phillip Rivers, or Fungy's coaching at the end of the game, and "Mr Clutch" missed yet another crucial kick.

- Patrick Kerney with a sack/Forced fumble. Vernon Davis and the RB both went to block a blitzing Deion Grant and nobody blocked Kerney and he made them pay. How are the 49ers making these mistakes in week 10? One guy was supposed to block the blitzer, while the other guy needs to block the end. 2 blockers on a safety while the DE runs free to the quarterback is terrible.
- I never liked Mike Nolan as a coach, and hopefully now some people see what I see.
- San Franciscos biggest gain in offense in the first half was a 15 yard penalty. Is Norv Turner a bad coach now? That offense has fallen apart and is probably the worst in the league.
- More free Seahawks to sack Alex Smith. I understand a DE occasionally beating a tackle, but you can't keep having mental errors in pass protection. Having unblocked defenders means a higher probability of turnovers and even injury.
- I liked seeing Steve Young in the booth, he is one of the few guys that I really tune in to what he is saying. Jaws can say some decent things, but some dumb things too, but Steve Young is real smart and honest. Steve Young and Bill Parcels leave everyone in their dust as far as analysis goes.

- Jarad Cooper and Charles Tillman start a decent sized brawl after a play.
- Brian Gresie had 3 Raiders running at him on the injury play and didn't even have a chance. At that point in time he just had to brace himself. It reminded me of Rocky IV where Ivan Drago is pounding Apollo Creed and his trainer is just yelling " Brace yourself".
- Rex Grossman fumbles his first snap... How fitting.
- For the holes and blocking he is given, Justin Fargas looks pretty good. He is fast and hits his holes hard.
- Stuard Swiagart had some pretty big hits. One on helmet to helmet hit with Benson, and one big hit of Berrian on the side lines.
- Rex Grossman his Mushin Muhammad down field and he hit Berrian with the game winning TD pass. He does take risk, and many times it results in turnovers, but it does lead to reward as well. Rex Grossman isn't some big established quarterback, but he is allowed the freedoms to take risks. Many younger or unproven quarterbacks are given the game manager role, but Lovie lets Rex throw.
- JC Pearman and Matt Vascursian might be the worst play by play team in the entire NFL. JC Pearman doesn't understand football and little Matts voice cracked like he is going through puberty.
- The Raiders offense is so bad that it made the Bears weak offense look OK. The Raiders receivers were quitting on routes, the line was blowing assignments, and the only bright spot was Justin Fargas. Fargas quickness and upright running style reminds me of Reggie Bush ( and Bush reminds me of Bryan Westbrook). Fargas is probably a little more powerful than Bush, but he isn't as agile, shifty, and doesn't read the runs as well but he does remind me of Bush.

Minny/Green Bay
- I said that I thought JC Pearman and Matt Vascursian were the worst play by play team, but Brian Baldinger might have made me change my mind. Baldie is a big dumb ass that loves to hear himself speak.
- Green Bay was effective running the ball early on, but ran a lot at the edges instead of at those big Minnesota tackels.
- Adrian Peterson just runs at another speed.
- EJ Henderson had a big hit. I like him.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Week 10 Recap

Week 10 Card
Teaser: Browns @ Pitt -3 + SF @ Seattle -3, for 3 units (beted) = Pending
Jax @ Tenn ML = Lost 2 Units
STL @ NO Over 45.5 = Won 2 units
Minnesota +6 @ Green Bay = Lost 2 units
Eagles +3 @ Deadskins = Won 2 units
Eagles 2nd Half @ Deadskin = Won 1 unit
Detroit @ Arizona -2 = Won 2 units
Cowboys @ Giants 2nd Half -.5 = Lost 1 Unit
4-3 ATS + 2 units (with a 3 unit teaser pending)

- Pitt early turnover gives Cleveland the ball in the red zone and Bralyon Edwards had a sick TD catch.
- Hines Ward tries to one hand a ball in the End zone and ends up dropping a TD catch and costing his team 4 points as they settle for a FG.
- A 21-9 game means Cleveland converted their opportunities into 3 TDs while the Steelers had to settle for 3 field goals.
- The Browns return game with Josh Cribbs helped that team out a lot today with a TD and giving the team good field position.
- Rothlisburger scrambled well today for a couple of first downs and had that long TD run.
- Pittsburgh dug themselves into a hole today, but it was impressive to see them play ketchup at Heinz field and win.

- What the heck happened in this game that I DVRed? Quinton Gray completed 13 passes for 101 yards and the Jags put up 28 points on a solid Titans defense? I am shocked. It looks like two Vince Young picks might not have helped.

STL/NO Over 45.5
- Easy over play for me. I am not as much of a totals player but that number was too juicy to pass up for two bad defenses in a dome, and two offenses that have underperformed this season ( which held that number low).

- I taped this game too, but is it really even worth watching? Brooks Bollinger did put up OK numbers but this game was over fast and AP got knocked out of this game. What surprises me on the stat sheet is the fact that Ryan Grant ran wild all over the Vikings run defense.

- Mcnabb looked real inaccurate early on skipping a ground ball to a check down ( on a penalty) and really missing Kevin Curtis on a deep ball chance. Mcnabbs strength is his intelligence and ability to read plays, but he has had problems with his accuracy early in his career and as of late.
- Redskins safeties were playing about 25 yards deep early in the game to keep everything in front of them, and force the Eagles to execute and eat up yards.
- The Redskins pass rush looks real weak early on.
- Redskins trying running a fake smoke screen then throw down the sideline to Mccardel for an incomplete pass. Is this what that offense has come to? Running screeens and fake screens all day?
- Jason Campbell completes his first TD pass to a receiver in quarter 2 of game 9 for the Redskins. Congratulations.
- I thought there were a few bad calls against the Eagles inside the red zone. There was a touchy pass interference call on Sheldon Brown and then there was the defensive holding call late in the game where the Redskins still couldn't punch it in.
- Did the Redskins let Westbrook score that 3rd and final touchdown ala the Packers in the 98' super bowl?
- Jason Campbell and the redskins basically had 2 final drives where they had the opportunity to tie/win the game and they failed miserably both times. In general this team doesn't run a good 2 minute drill and red zone offense.
- I commented on the importance of LJ Smith and he did have a key TD catch in this game as the better team wins. The Redskins opened up the offense for once, yet they lost.

- I taped this game and didn't catch too much of it. How come when Kurt Warner spiked the ball after getting sacked we didn't see a penalty on him?
- In the limited action I saw, I was impressed by the return abilities of rookie WR Steve Breaston. Not just in this game, but the Pitt game as well, the kid can run it back.

- Brandon Jacobs is the kind of guy you want on your football team. He lays a bone crushing block on the backside of a play, and it pisses a cowboy off enough to tack on an additional 15 yards with a penalty.
- I like how Kevin Gilbride and Jared Lorenzen go over screen shots with Eli Manning after every series ( Romo was as well). I used to find it strange to see Mike Vick sitting on the bench by himself with this ticked off look in between Falcons series. I like it when teams backup quarterbacks can go over stuff as well ( like how Warner would go over stuff with Leinart in Arizona etc.) I'd much rather have a Vinny Testaverde, Gus Ferotte, or some backup quarterback looking over screen shots trying to crack the code of the defense on the sidelines as opposed to just sitting there and waiting for the starter to get hurt. Romo/Jason Garret go over stuff so well that the Cowboys have tore their opponents up in 3rd quarters of games.
- Brandon Jacobs had a play where he smashed into the defender about 5 yards down field and pushed the pile about 4 more yards to get the first down as a true "cloud of dust" running back.
- Brandon Jacobs draws a 2nd taunting penalty on the cowboys.
- Keith Davis punching Chase Blackburn on the kickoff to open up the 2nd half was dumb as it gave the Giants the ball at almost the 50 yard line.
- 83 yard Giants kick off return called back on a Kevin Boss hold. Kevin Boss wasn't even really near the returner and didn't appear to hold. It looked like the cowboy fell down but I didn't see the penalty there. Was the call on somebody else or was that just a bad call?
- Another huge call against the Giants on the Brandon Jacobs TD that was called back. I didn't see it on Snee ( that doesn't mean it didn't happen), but I also don't like how the flag was thrown after Jacobs lands in the end zone.
- Michael Johonson not tackling Marion Barber for a key 3rd and 1 stop really hurt the Giants as a couple of plays later Romo hits Owens for a 50 yard touchdown pass.
- To me Dallas answered the test, if you have any doubts about this team they were answered today. Tony Romo is the real deal and this team jumps to the class of the NFC ( even over Green Bay). It kills me because last year I had futures on Dallas to win it all, but I was once again a year early ( 2 years ago I had Seattle winning the NFC). I could bitch and wine about those 2 bad calls against the Giants, but I still think Dallas played the better game today, bad calls happen, but the Cowboys deserved to win that game. That long TD to Owens was set up because Romo chose to throw to the right guy. The safety Michael Johnson lunged at the intented target ( witten), so Romo went over top to a wide open Owens. If the safety would have played Owns then Witten would have had the big gain. Tony Romy really understands the passing game and looked damn good today.


ADD: New York Giants 2nd half plus 1/2 a point for 1 unit.

The half a point is pointless because the game is tied, but I think the Giants win this one to claim first place in the NFC East.

4:15 ADD

ADD: Arizona -2 vs Detroit ( for 2 units)

The Eagles/Steelers games are still pending.


Eagles 2nd half "pick'em" for 1 unit.

Week 10

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Week 7 1-2-0 ATS. 0-0 ML -1 unit
Week 8 3-0-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 9 units
Week 9 3-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Season = +18.25 units

These last couple weekends I have made money, but a lot of my leans (like Buffalo) did well too. Here is my week 9 card.
Patriots @ Colts +6 = Win 3 units
Deadskins @ Jets +4 = Win 1 unit
SD @ Vikings +7 = Win 1 unit
Dallas @ Eagles +3 = Lost 1 unit
Pack @ Chiefs -2 = Lost 1 unit
Pats/Colts 2nd half Over 28 = Lost 1 unit
3-3 ATS, +2 units

Week 10 Card
Teaser: Browns @ Pitt -3 + SF @ Seattle -3, for 3 units (beted)
Jax @ Tenn ML ( 2 units -220)
STL @ NO Over 45.5 ( 2 units Beted)
Minnesota +6 @ Green Bay ( 2 units Bodog)
Eagles +3 @ Deadskins ( 2 units)
- Also looking at playing Seattle -10 and some late games depending on 1PM.

Cleveland/Pitt -3 +Sf/Sea -3 ( 3 units)
- Cleveland has been able to throw the ball around this year, but they are facing an A+ Pass defense this week right in the hornets nest. Pittsburgh has only given up 12PPG, with only 5.1 ypp and 76 yards against the run. Derek Anderson will face his toughest test of the season against the leagues best defense.
- Seattle is facing probably the worst offense in the league, and possibly without their best player Frank Gore. Not only does the 49ers offense stink, but the Hawks defense looks even better at home as opposed to the road. I like the Hawks to keep their foot on the gas this week when they have a lead ( they blew a lead last week). I like them at -10, and I really like them at -3 as a safer play.

Jax @ Tenn ML ( 2 units)
Now that Quinton Gray won’t have a run game, what will he do? This game could resemble the Bucs/Titans game but I don’t believe in the Jags passing game at all. This is as much of a fade on Quinton Gray as anything but the Titans do have a monster defense.

Stl @ NO Over 46 (2 Units)
- Not enough points as defenses give up a combined 50 PPG
- NO has averaged 30.5 points in their last 4 games as the offense has woke up.
- The Rams have been able to put up some points in domes and they get S-Jack back.
Everybody knows these defenses aren’t good, but the offenses have been lagging a little bit giving this a smaller total than it should be. The Saints offense has come alive, and I like fading 2 bad defenses here in the dome.

Minny +6 @ GB ( 2 units)
- 6 points is a lot of points and Minnesota might get their best QB play of the year from Brooks BollingerAnything but Tavaras Jackson completing and ugly 46% of his passes.
- Green Bay can’t run on a normal defense, never mind against this Minnesota defense with the Williams boys at DT.
- I will take my chances that Favre will have throw 40 times and not turn it over to win.
- All of Green Bays home games have been decided by a touchdown or less.
- Minnesota lost on the road to dallas by 10, but the rest of their road games have all been decided by a field goal or less.
- Surprisingly Minnesotas team is actually built more as an outdoor team than that Packers with the ability to run and stop the run.
- I just really think that if Brooks Bollinger can even play average, I like the Vikings chances here. With Tavaras Jackson in there, the Vikings average more rushing yards than passing yards? They have more total rushing yards and more yards per play. Tavaras Jackson is a complete and utter joke and him not playing is a reason to like the Vikings.

Philly +3 @ Washington ( 2 units)
- The better team is getting points here and the Eagles are probably the healthiest they have been all year.
- The Eagles outplayed the Redskins in the first meeting except for converting 0/5 in the red zone with 4 field goals.
- I think LJ Smith coming back to the lineup really helps this Eagles team that is better than their 3-5 record shows. They had the heartbreaking loss to the Bears, the bad special teams loss to the Packers, and the loss to the Redskins where they scored 12 points in their 5 red zone trips instead of a possible 35 points. If a parallel universe this eagles team could be 5-3, and that Redskins team that needed Overtime to beat the Jets and Dolphins could be the 3-5 team.

Make sure to come back at 4PM and see if I add any games. Good luck.

Lots of notes you won't see on the stat sheets

- Jets throwing a lot on 1st downs, maybe they don’t expect too much from 1st down runs, maybe the Redskins are stacking the box, and maybe they are just trying to catch the redskins off guard.
- Dumb penalties by Leron Laundry and London Fletcher cost the Redskins yards.
- Jason Campbell has not completed a pass to a receiver with 5:28 left in the first half. The Redskins run a horizontal offense with all screens and check downs.
- Jason Campbell is 5/10 (50%) passing while throwing all dinks and dunks and not impressing me at all. Later in the week he said the Jets were playing a lot of “Man Under” so he didn’t want to throw any outside routes downfield as the Redskins continued to run that check down offense.
- JC completes his first pass to a receiver late in the first half that was a 0 yard smoke screen pass to Santana Moss anyways. Later in the drive on 3rd and goal he was looking at Portis for a dump off that didn’t happen.
- Kellen Clemens hit 7 different pass catchers in the first half and had an 18 yard scramble. How come people call a guy like Tavaras Jackson mobile, but Clemens rips off an 18 yard run and nobody talks about his mobility?
- Mike Nugent literally runs onto the field late in the first half to kick a field goal and Joe Gibbs does the whole “ice the kicker” timeout. “Icing the kicker” might or might not work, but I really don’t like calling a timeout when the kicker is rushed to get the kick off. There is a difference between a guy standing around waiting and getting “iced”, and a guy that never even really had time to set up in the first place.
- The first real completion to a wide receiver ( besides the 0 yard smoke screen) was a 13 yard play action pass in the middle of the field to Antwain Randel El. Even the first completion was rather conservative as it was a play action pass and not a regular pass.
- People confuse a “strong arm” with a pretty deep ball. Jason Campbell ended up throwing 2 deep balls in the second half with one being under thrown and the other overthrown.
- Leon Washington drops an easy hitch n’ go pass that could have gone for a Jets touchdown.
- Campbell picked off on a safety blitz and none of his receivers were even close to where he threw it.
- The Skins were killing the Jets running the ball, and the Jet Safety took a terrible angle on Portis’ 32 yard run. A lot of times big runs come from good wide receiver blocking downfield because the safeties are more involved in run support than people realize. The safety was unblocked on this particular play but took a horrible angle that allowed Portis to run in the open field. It wasn’t a good play by the Jet front 7, but the poor angle/tackling by the Jet safety turned it into a big play.

- Enough has already been said about this game, but I think the thing that killed the Colts was Manning trying to throw to waiver wire trash Moorhead and Fletcher at the end of the game instead of having pro bowl Harrison and the speedy Gonzalez.

- Reggie Kelly was gang tackled by 5 Bills on a catch and that just speaks volumes about coaching to me. Marvin Lewis’s Bengals unit has had some injuries, but that defense is a complete joke ( and it is supposed to be Marvins specialty). Buffalo has lost 5 starters on defense but they have played surprisingly well and getting 5 hats to the ball is a reason why.
- The Bengals linebackers take terrible angles to the ball.
- Chad Johnson getting beaten around like a rag doll, not just the injury hit either. There was a catch at the sideline where the defender tried to push him out of bounds and Ocho Cincos face bounced off the turf like a basketball.
- Losman had pretty good stats but still sucks.

- John Madden has been known to say some dumb things, but he is correct when he pointed out how the Cowboys big offensive line dominated the Eagles defensive line. Big “hotel” Flozel Adams weighs about 350 pounds and is lined up against a speedy Trent Cole at maybe 100 pounds less. The Cowboys offensive line has quietly been a strength for this team especially the left side with Hotel, the massive Lenard Davis, and the pro bowl center Gurude.

Cleveland ( last couple of games)
- A lot of coaches and coordinators talk about “opening up the offense” each summer but not many really do it. Romeo Crenell really did let his offensive coordinator open it up this season. How many coaches would let Derek Anderson come in off the waiver wire and throw the ball downfield? Maybe the Browns figure they might as well let Anderson throw it ( as opposed to game manager) in a fight or flight response. If Anderson does succeed then the Browns know they have something, if he fails then he just warmed the seat for Brady Quinn.

Seattle ( last few games)
- Shawn Alexander looks done. I saw him drop two passes ( due to the cast on his left arm) and after both drops Mike Holmgren pulled him from the game for at least a play. In the Seattle/Browns game they showed highlights of Alexander from 03’ and it looked like a completely different player. Shawn busted out a 10 yard run later in the game in which his blockers allowed him to get to the second level ( which is great), only most backs could have ran for a lot more than 10 yards. Alexander wasn’t hitting the holes hard or anything, he looked like a 30 year old back with a broken left hand, a hurt knee, hamstring, and a lot of miles of wear and tear on his body.
- Leroy Hill looks like a pretty good linebacker to pair with Lofa and Julian Peterson. He has impressed me and standing up Jamal Lewis, and a vicious hit in the Bengals game highlighted his performance.

- Somebody needs to test James Harrison for steroids with 3.5 sacks, 2 FF, a pick and lots of disruption in general.
- Is Steve Mcnair done? Forget the lack of passes downfield, the guy has fumbled what, 6 times in 2 or 3 games? How many games has he missed, and now many times has Bollier had to come in relief duty? It seems like age and injury have really hit Mcnair hard.
- I didn’t like Brian Billeck throwing Jim Fassel under the bus last year for the offensive struggles. Billeck did this right before some weaker competition so that the Ravens put up some points and then the media was claiming that “Billeck fixed it”. The Ravens are one of those teams that vows to “open it up” on offense every year, but Billeck is still running a weak passing offense. Brian Billecks arrogance will cost his team games every year.

Sunday, November 04, 2007

Week 9 ADD

ADD - Patriots/Colts 2nd Half over 28 (+105)( 1 unit)

Live from New Jersey, you can't contain these two offensive super powers. I love betting 2nd half overs of good offenses after sluggist first halfs with missed field goals and missed opportunites.

Friday, November 02, 2007

Week 9 Can you hear that yelp yelp yelp, it is the public collectivly kicking their dogs.

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Week 7 1-2-0 ATS. 0-0 ML -1 unit
Week 8 3-0-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 9 units
Season = +16.25 units

So far so good with a big week 8 in the books. I've been on a tear since week 3, but the biggest prize might be after the super bowl. I have HUGE nfl futures on the Philadelphia Eagles (35/1) and the New England Patriots at (12/1 and 10/1).

This week I will be going out of town, and I believe this is an excellent week to fade the public. Can you hear that yelp yelp yelp, it is the public collectivly kicking their dogs on Sunday.

Week 9 Card
Pats @ Colts +6 ( 3 unit)
Deadskins @ Jets +4 ( 1 unit)
SD @ Vikings +7 ( 1 unit)
Dallas @ Eagles +3 (+115)( 1 unit)
Pack @ Chiefs -2 ( 1 unit)

All are fades of the public
Pats 60%
Deadskins 75%
San Diego 78%
Dallas 72%
Pack 65%

Pats/Colts- I don't even care if I lose this bet as it is a hedge for my Heavy Patriots SB futures. I do think people are underestimating the colts at home as they are a much better team in the RCA dome. They haven't lost at home in years. 6 points is a lot of points for a team that doesn't lose at home. The Patriots are a great team no doubt, but all this "best team ever" talk could be hushed by the best quarterback ever this sunday. Ideally I'd want the Pats to win by 5 or less so that they can win homefield advantage and I can win this wager.

Deadskins/Jets - I think the Jets stink, but they probably lose this game by 3 or less. Two boring conservative offenses means a close game, maybe with a backdoor cover at the end. The public is pounding the redskins as they expect a "bounce back" after last weeks thrashing. Hopefully Mangini can take of of what Bellicheck did with the 3-4 and be effective against the Redskins. The Redskins would be wise to attack the Jets run D all day long.

SD @ Minny- Trust me, I wouldn't want to bet on Tavaras Jackson, but nearly 80% of the public is on the Chargers. This wouldn't classify as a west cost team traveling east for a 1pm start ( not entirely at least), but this is more of a fade on San Diego than a play on the Vikings. The Vikings don't really lose games by more than 7 ( they lost one by 9). All this talk of San Diego as a sleeping Giant waking up could regress back to the mean this week against a decent defense on an eastern road trip.

Dal/Philly - I was high on Philly coming into this year and I think they are a team that could come back and make this year into something. They have had some heart breaking losses and they are better than they are. Mcnabb is looking healthier ( and he is the heart of that team that makes it all work), Dawkins should be back, but the other piece that hurt them was the loss of LJ Smith. I can't tell you how important a tight end is in a West Coast offense. Especially for a Philly team that doesn't have a super star wide receiver. Andy Reids teams generally play better as the year goes on, and I would NOT could Philly out just yet. I really like the Colts/Eagles to win outright more than the Jets/Minny ( which seem like good situational plays). Here we have a dog, at home, on monday night, against a divisional rival.

Pack/Kc - This isn't as much of a fade the public play as the others, but I love this matchup. Green Bay is a passing dominant team coming into arrowhead against a good pass defensive team. The Chiefs have actually won 4 of their last 5 games, and Green Bay is coming off a short week against a non conference opponent. If there is EVER a game where Brett Favre is going to throw picks, it is in Arrowhead against a solid pass D, with Jared Allen/Tamba Hali in his face and Surtain and Law in coverage. This game should be lower scoring with the Herm Edwards offense, and I do like the Chiefs to pull it out.

Good luck and make some money.

Notes on games

- Leon Hall burned by the Hines Ward touchdown/double move, and Santonio Holmes killed him on a 40 yard pass as well. It reminds me of Dwayne Jarret burning him in college as well.
- #59 LB for the Bengals horrible angles on reading a running play which allowed a big run
- Justin Smith running down Santonio Holmes on a reverse. Very impressive to see the big Defensive end run down the speedy receiver on that play.
- Chad Johnson had 2 key drops, and an offsides called on him ( not sure it was really him that was offsides though).
- Ike Taylor cracked Houshmanzada on a pass play.
- Palamalou made a nice pass break up on a flea flicker pass. He was trying to catch up to the wide out and rather than playing the ball, he hit the receivers hands after the catch to break the play up. It was about the only chance he had to defend the play and it worked.
- The Steelers pass defense continues to impress me with the formations, shifts, looks. The front 7 looks like a 3 man weave drill in basketball with guys stunting/moving around, and they use Palamoulou moving around at the last minute to cover hot routes.

- Quinton Gray overthrowing MJD real bad on 2 screen passes, one almost picked and costing his team 3 points. Jax ran at one point at least 11 times in a row.
- Q.Gray Completes his 3rd pass with 2 minutes left in the 3rd and all 3 were screens. He had 2 incomplete screens and many of his passes weren’t even close.
- Aaron Glen breaks off a Garcia 3 step drop on Garcias third step and makes a pick 6. Excellent play by the 14 year vet, and I thought it was unusual for Garcia to be calling a long audible like that on 1st down which signaled the pass play. Glen read the 3 step drop hot route and scored.
- Tampa reminds me of Green Bay
- Jax reminds me of Baltimore/Minnesota.
- I loved the 2nd to last play of the Game that Tampa ran. It is 3rd and 10 and the Bucs are driving down the field to try and score and win the game. Gruden sends Ike Hillard on an 11 yard out pattern and then has him turn up field. The Pro bowl DB Reggie Nelson knew to defend that imaginary 10 yardline when he gets burned on the “ up” part of the out and up. The only problem with the play was poor execution as Garcia overthrew Hillard.
- Soloman Wilcots has much love for mobile quarterbacks. At one point Jeff Garcia scrambled and he said that sometimes Jeff Garcia can be tougher to defend than Peyton Manning? Errrr what? Peyton Manning could throw for 300 yards, and Quinton Gray could throw for 100 with 15 rushing yards and Wilcots would go nuts talking about those 15 rushing yards Gray had.

- 1st down, Broncos bring Lynch down into the Box ( on a running down), and Favre hits Jones for about an 80 yard touchdown. I love the play call that says "if you stack the box and leave no safety help deep, will will attack you."
- Kornheiser keeps taking shots at Favre “ he’s been in the league 40 years”, he throws a lot of picks, he’s old, he said he was going to retire, he plays wreckless etc. Kornheiser is the anti Madden.
- I think I know why Shannihan substituted Cutler for Jake. They do run a lot of screens, bootlegs and “easier to execute” plays for a quarterback in Shannys West Coast offense. If you are going to run a lot of that stuff, then why not use the quarterback with the stronger arm and higher upside? In the more intermediate/difficult plays, Plummer made a lot of those dumb pick 6 mistakes, so Shanny probably believed he could get AT LEAST Plummer-like play from Cutler, with potentially more.
- There are a lot of fumbles in general in goal line formations. Cutler fumbled just like Garcia did last week in the Tampa/Detroit game. I believe that the tighter splits for lineman, and the fact that the center O-Line has to really fire off the ball contributes, but many times the center also steps on the quarterbacks foot which can trip him or cause a fumble. In this case, the left guard was pulling right and knocked the ball right out of Cutlers hand.
- Brett Favres wife is real hot. I don’t know why people were dogging her in the past. I think Kornheiser should have taken his joke up and been replaced by her in the booth.

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