Friday, April 27, 2007

2nd and final Mock Draft

1. Oakland - Jemarcus Russell- Al Davis can't ignore that Long Toss
2. Atlanta - Calvin Johnson- I believe the 2nd pick will be for sale. Numerous teams will submit offers to the Lions ( Bucs, Skins, Atlanta, Minny, Denver). There are rumors that the active owner Arthur Blank told Rich Mccay his GM to " get that hometown receiver". It wouldn't shock me, Blank was disguisted with the production at receiver last year and doesn't think Vick is the problem. That's where I believe the Matt Schaub trade fits in. Mckay trades Schaub for AMMO to grab Johnson. I believe Atlanta will end up sending the 8 pick, and either both second rounders, or 1 second rounder and NEXT years first rounder. Now Vick will have no excuses.
3. Cleveland - Brady Quinn- The owner wants a franchise QB, the owner gets one.
4. Tampa Bay- Gaines Adams- The Bucs need pass rush and bring him in to rebuild the Defense.
5. Arizona- Joe Thomas- The Cards need help on their offensive line and grab the top O-Line prospect on the board to protect their young QB.
6. Washington- Amobi Okoye- The skins need pass rush more than life itself. I'm sure they would rather have a DE, but Okoye is a very interesting young man. They wouldn't mind trading, and I hear they might still pull off that trade for Lance Briggs with the Bears.

I believe the Bears are WAITING for the trade and the trade will happen if Gaines Adams is still on the board. The Bears know that DE is a more valued position than a LB. If they can grab the stud Gaines Adams and get rid of their hold out they will do it, but I believe he will already be off the board so no trade in my mock draft.
7. Minnesota - Laron Laundry- They need a receiver, DL, but you can't ignore the BPA in Laundry.
8. Detroit - Patrick Willis- The Lions are rumored to like G. Adams and Willis. They have a defensive minded head coach who runs the cover 2. I do believe if they trade down, they will be taking a defensive player who plays in the front
9.Miami - Levi Brown- They need offensive line help. Brown is the #2 rated tackle.
10. Houston - Adrian Peterson- He is the player that I have falling. I believe his running style and injury history ( and even current injury) will make teams weary of paying a running back that kind of money.
11. San Fran - Adam Carriker- Will move right into a starting DE position in the 34 in SF.
12. Buffalo- Leon Hall- Tries to fill the void of Nate Clements.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

More NFL

Pacman has game over for a year? Why do people argue with this? What if it was YOU that was doing your job at work one night when YOU got shot in the neck? Getting suspended 1 year should be the least of that guys worried. The guys been involved with police over 10 times!

He must have some great publicist because now he's supposed to go "back to school". Is that really such a great idea? Is he really a studious kind of guy or the guy that got in trouble with police over a hand full of times back in college... beating people with pool sticks, bar fights, etc. So my question to you... Is it really a good idea to go back to college with all those girls, parties, drugs, alcholol and that bad reputation? What if drunk college kid goes up to him and tells him off? It's not like West Virginia isn't a party school.

Looks like Al Wilson was cut by the Broncos... I'll be the Lions and Giants are glad they didn't end up trading for him. Speaking of the Giants, looks like they are interested in Anthony Wright and Charles Rodgers as low key free agent signings. Jared Lorenzen is currently Eli's backup but would he ever play, or just be Eli's caddy? If Manning gets hurt my money is on Wright to play QB. Charles Rodgers didn't work out in Detroit, but being such a high draft pick you'd think the guy has enough talent to be the Giants 4th receiver on the depth charts. I like the idea of Detroit buying the new car, and the Giants buying the used car at a severe discount.

I can't get enough of the NFL. I'm considering going to the draft next. I was actually at the draft last year on day 2 ( with the true fans) but didn't get a chance to go in.

I was thinking of who would be the higher and lower risk prospects. The quarterbacks at the top are obviously higher risk prospects. They could either end up leading a franchise for 15 years, or a waste of a high pick and leading to more years of disaster.

The top lower risk prospect on offense would be Calvin Johnson. Not only does he have all the measure ables, but he has outstanding character at a position that can typically lack character. Receivers can typically bust at a high rate ( as well as quarterbacks), but Johnson is just different.

An outstanding lower risk prospect on defense would be Leron Laundry. Now safety isn't as important as a position as Corner or Defensive end, but Laundry would be one of the most athletic corners in the league already. Many corners start to age and then they move to safety where their minds can make up for their legs. Safeties are usually slower than corners, but not Laundry. Leron would be one of the faster CORNERS in the league, but he's patrolling back in the secondary as a safety. He could end up like a Sean Taylor or Brian Dawkins. It's not so much the position, but the fact that the guy is just a play maker. Look at the fumbles that Taylor or Dawkins could create. Sure, they might not be locking down a receiver like a stud corner can, but he could cause fumbles, and create fear back there in a secondary. You want a defense full of players that offenses fear... Receivers will fear running over Laundry's middle of the field. Not only that, but with his speed he COULD match up on corners. Sometimes offenses run guys in motion to create mismatches ( a safety covering a speedy receiver), but a defense could get by with Laundry on a receiver.

Brady Quinn over Jemarcus Russell

Why does everybody get so caught up in the age of prospects? If a team drafts a prospect, he might not even be on the team 5 years later, so what advantage is there to drafting a Junior over a Senior? The only position that might have any significance for, is a 4 year starter at running back who took a lot of hits. Other than that, I'd rather have a Senior than a Junior given equal talent.

One of the best predictors of Quarterbacks performance, coming out of college is " games started". You can obviously get in more games as a potential 4 year starter ( Senior) as opposed to a Junior. Now some people argue the Junior has " more potential, and can play longer". Who cares about when a one guy is 35, and the other guy is 34. We don't even know if that guy will be on the team at 26?

Potential? Wasn't Tom Brady the lanky quarterback out of Michigan with the weak arm? Scouts don't always drool over lanky quarterbacks with weak arms. On the other hand, Daunte Culpepper was supposed to be a new breed of man child playing quarterback. Big, tall, strong arm, and mobile. He had the most potential in the world right? Now the Dolphins look like they got ripped off in trading for him.

A lot of media publicans fill their articles with fluff,hype, both sides of the fence, and recycled opinions. Here is one to write down... Brady Quinn will be a better pro than Jemarcus Russell.

Brady Quinn could have been a top 10 pick last year ( maybe even the first QB selected), but he went back to school. Not only did he go back to school, but he had every minute detail of his game in the spotlight. When QB's go back to school, the media tries to find something they don't like about him.

Sort of like when you get a new girlfriend. You can put up with everything because she's so freaking hot. You only see the hot body and the positives in that new girlfriend, while you miss the nagging and the demands. After a period of time, you only start to see the negatives of that woman and you end up breaking up.

Jemarcus Russel is a Junior coming out and never had that time under the spotlight like Brady Quinn. Yes he was a high prospect last year, but nobody had him as the first QB in the draft over Quinn. If Russell had to go back for his Senior season, who knows what would happen. Maybe scouts wouldn't like his timing, or his accuracy on short throws, or his weight. Maybe Brian Brohm would catapult HIM next year and be the top pick.

My point is that right now Russell is that new girlfriend that you only see the good in. It's real easy to see the positives too on such a big guy, with such a strong arm. Remember though, there were tons of big strong quarterbacks before him that never made it.

I also don't like how the straw that broke the camels back was the head to head match up vs Brady Quinn. It wasn't Quinn vs Russel, but Quinn vs LSU's defense, against Russell and the Irish defense... big difference. If the media is going to get so hyped up about 1 game head to head, maybe they should start saying that David Carr is better than Peyton Manning because he won a head to head match up last year. The fact of the matter is, that fans don't get to see all the games, and everybody saw Russell look impressive in that HOME bowl game.

Do people consider that with the bowl game? Jemarcus Russell was playing basically a home game on fast turf against the visiting ( and less athletic) Irish team. People say to not be too high after wins, and not too low after losses, but that game increased Russels stock soo much. I was not even really that impressed. Quinn hit one of his wide outs in the face mask with a pass early in the game that could have turned the tide, while Russel's fumbalitis doesn't show up on that high QB ranking. Quinn had that dumb pick that he forced, but Russel was very Daunte Fumbelpeppereqsue with that fumble he had with player draped on top of him.

Jemarcus Russell reminds me of the "old school" of thinking in the book" Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. People just think he looks good, he must be good. I mean we can see his favorable height, size, arm etc. What is a lot more difficult ( and important) to see, is the players mind. Billy Beane used to look at the metric " walks" to see if a hitter had a good eye at the plate or not. In college football it isn't as easy with so many variables working together. It can be difficult and even offensive to question who the smarter and readier player is.

Charlie Weiss made the comment that in three years, Brady Quinn will be the 3rd best quarterback in the league. In NFL interviews, he still believes he will be the first player selected ( despite nobody else believing that). All I know is that if I'm in that Raiders draft room, I stand up and argue for Brady Quinn.

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