Saturday, April 14, 2007

Brady Quinn over Jemarcus Russell

Why does everybody get so caught up in the age of prospects? If a team drafts a prospect, he might not even be on the team 5 years later, so what advantage is there to drafting a Junior over a Senior? The only position that might have any significance for, is a 4 year starter at running back who took a lot of hits. Other than that, I'd rather have a Senior than a Junior given equal talent.

One of the best predictors of Quarterbacks performance, coming out of college is " games started". You can obviously get in more games as a potential 4 year starter ( Senior) as opposed to a Junior. Now some people argue the Junior has " more potential, and can play longer". Who cares about when a one guy is 35, and the other guy is 34. We don't even know if that guy will be on the team at 26?

Potential? Wasn't Tom Brady the lanky quarterback out of Michigan with the weak arm? Scouts don't always drool over lanky quarterbacks with weak arms. On the other hand, Daunte Culpepper was supposed to be a new breed of man child playing quarterback. Big, tall, strong arm, and mobile. He had the most potential in the world right? Now the Dolphins look like they got ripped off in trading for him.

A lot of media publicans fill their articles with fluff,hype, both sides of the fence, and recycled opinions. Here is one to write down... Brady Quinn will be a better pro than Jemarcus Russell.

Brady Quinn could have been a top 10 pick last year ( maybe even the first QB selected), but he went back to school. Not only did he go back to school, but he had every minute detail of his game in the spotlight. When QB's go back to school, the media tries to find something they don't like about him.

Sort of like when you get a new girlfriend. You can put up with everything because she's so freaking hot. You only see the hot body and the positives in that new girlfriend, while you miss the nagging and the demands. After a period of time, you only start to see the negatives of that woman and you end up breaking up.

Jemarcus Russel is a Junior coming out and never had that time under the spotlight like Brady Quinn. Yes he was a high prospect last year, but nobody had him as the first QB in the draft over Quinn. If Russell had to go back for his Senior season, who knows what would happen. Maybe scouts wouldn't like his timing, or his accuracy on short throws, or his weight. Maybe Brian Brohm would catapult HIM next year and be the top pick.

My point is that right now Russell is that new girlfriend that you only see the good in. It's real easy to see the positives too on such a big guy, with such a strong arm. Remember though, there were tons of big strong quarterbacks before him that never made it.

I also don't like how the straw that broke the camels back was the head to head match up vs Brady Quinn. It wasn't Quinn vs Russel, but Quinn vs LSU's defense, against Russell and the Irish defense... big difference. If the media is going to get so hyped up about 1 game head to head, maybe they should start saying that David Carr is better than Peyton Manning because he won a head to head match up last year. The fact of the matter is, that fans don't get to see all the games, and everybody saw Russell look impressive in that HOME bowl game.

Do people consider that with the bowl game? Jemarcus Russell was playing basically a home game on fast turf against the visiting ( and less athletic) Irish team. People say to not be too high after wins, and not too low after losses, but that game increased Russels stock soo much. I was not even really that impressed. Quinn hit one of his wide outs in the face mask with a pass early in the game that could have turned the tide, while Russel's fumbalitis doesn't show up on that high QB ranking. Quinn had that dumb pick that he forced, but Russel was very Daunte Fumbelpeppereqsue with that fumble he had with player draped on top of him.

Jemarcus Russell reminds me of the "old school" of thinking in the book" Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. People just think he looks good, he must be good. I mean we can see his favorable height, size, arm etc. What is a lot more difficult ( and important) to see, is the players mind. Billy Beane used to look at the metric " walks" to see if a hitter had a good eye at the plate or not. In college football it isn't as easy with so many variables working together. It can be difficult and even offensive to question who the smarter and readier player is.

Charlie Weiss made the comment that in three years, Brady Quinn will be the 3rd best quarterback in the league. In NFL interviews, he still believes he will be the first player selected ( despite nobody else believing that). All I know is that if I'm in that Raiders draft room, I stand up and argue for Brady Quinn.

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