Saturday, October 28, 2006

Week 8 picks

Live from Toledo Ohio
One Pick this week = Denver -2.5 ( 5 units)
It's one of my larger plays of the year

Arizona +3.5 @ Green Bay
Atl @ Cincy-3.5
Baltimore +1 @ New Orleans
Houston +3 @ Tennesse
Jacksonville @ Philly -7.5
Seattle @ KC -4
San Fran @ Chicago -16
Tampa Bay @ New York -9.5
Stl @ San Diego -9.5
Indy @ Denver -2.5
New York +1 @ Cleveland +1
Pittsburgh -9 @ Oakland
Dallas @ Carolina -5
New England -1 @ Minnesota

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Week 8 Sucker bet

Week 8: Denver Broncos -2.5 ( 5 units)

This is the first time I am selecting a favorite for my fools gold pick. Each and every week I put a lot of pride into my pick. Last week I narrowed down my selection to two teams and it was difficult to pull the trigger and make my final selection( both happened to win). This week it took me all of 2 seconds to see that Denver was the Sucker bet of the week. Right now I see the Line as Denver -2.5, but I believe it could go down to as good as -1. I will wait until later in the week to play the game, and I like this pick a lot. I'm going out of town on thursday, and I want to have it on record my units so I will try and somehow log onto later in the week.

A few weeks ago I realized that the Colts are a very vulnerable team. Their offense wasn't in sync, and their defense is one of the 5 worst defenses in the league. I just wanted to see Indy play even an average overall football team that could run the ball and play defense. Well, now I got my wish and see the Colts playing a good football team with an excellent run game and an excellent defense in Denver. The Giants ran all over them, the Titans ran all over them, they let that Midget Maurice Jones Drew look like Barry Sanders. It's not like Tiki Barber and the guys were getting lucky, there would rip 7 yard runs like it was nothing. I want to say that at one point in time that Jones-Drew was averaging around 10 yards per carry. I wonder why the colts can't play run defense at all.

Dwight Freeney is probably the most overrated player in all of football. He is good at putting pressure on the quarterback, but he is absolutly terrible against the run. Even if you go watch a little league game, the coach tells the defensive end to NOT spin because if you don't get a sack, you take yourself right out of the play. Not only does Freeney spin all the time, but he loops right around the tackle when he doesn't spin, giving opposing runningbacks a nice running lane for an off tackle run. The Giants and Jaguars exploited the hell out of it, and we all know Denver can run the ball. If Dwight Freeney gets 1 sack a game, but is personally responsible for giving up say 5-10 seperate seven yard runs... How valueable is he?

Tony Dungy is overrated as a coach. Every year we hear the same crap, we already know the colts have a good offense, but then the media tries to sell us that their defense is legit too. I want to say that 2 or 3 years ago the colts defense was actually ranked pretty well for most of the year. They were playing a weak schedule, and had run up some stats. It bothers me that a guy like Tony Dungy will be labeled a defensive "genius" or Brian Billeck will be labeled an "offensive genius". If I was the offensive coordinator in Minnesota and I had Cris Carter, Jake Reed, Randy Moss, Robert Smith and Korey Stringer I think I'd be a genius too. Dungy is credited with "turning around the Bucs D with his cover 2". Well maybe having Derrick Brooks, John Lynch, Warren Sapp, Hardy Nickerson, Rhonde Barber, Cheti Ahanatu ( I think he had Simeon Rice a year) had a little something to do with that as well? Dungy had a championship team in Tampa for years and never won the big game... the year after he leaves, coach Chucky wins the superbowl. Dungy has had very good regular season teams in Indy, but they get out played and out coached in the post season every year. Manning is labeled a chock artist ( and rightfully so), but coach Dungy gets a free pass. Bellicheck runs circles around them every year, and Shannihan has two rings of his own. Every year in Indy, the "defensive genius" has had a swiss cheese defense, but every year the media tries to tell you " it's better this year".

Two weeks ago the mild mannored Dungy called out his defense as being soft to the Media. They also had a desperation move in trading a 2nd round draft pick for Booger Mcfarland. I listened to some of Joe Gibbs press conference after last weeks game and he said a lot of Indys trouble on D was a lot of "stunting" they do with their front 7. I'm not exactly sure how accurate that is. These comments and trades don't look or sound like things from an undefeated football team. Calling out your piss poor defense, and bringing in an overweight guy named booger are desperation moves in my opinion. This defenes is in trouble and everybody knows it.

I hear a lot of cappers talk about a "let down game" after a big win, a "sandwhich game" between two big games, or a "look ahead game". I think people think this "look ahead game" is purly psychologial but it's not. The "look ahead game" is not just about worrying about next weeks opponent, I believe the biggest factor in a "look ahead game" is within the coaching staff. I believe the coaches might try and "hold back" some of those plays they are looking to run next week, or if they get a lead to run some vanilla offense or defense and not show anything. Those coaches also might try and run a little bit of a diversion by running stuff they " won't" want to run. Now Denver is a task in itself, but I think the colts and the Patriots are probably the biggest non-divisonal rivalry in all of football. The Patriots have really had the colts number, and they have a huge matchup next week. I'm not suggesting that Peyton will have Bill Bellicheck in his mind, but I am saying there is a chance that the play calls might be a little bit different. The eye in the sky never lies, and everything is recorded and scrtinized. The look ahead factor probably applies more to a crappy team before the good team, but the thought crossed my mind.


- Tatuem Bell should have a good game. There was a logic to start whichever runningback was playing the colts for fantasy football. Not only are the colts piss poor at run defense, but the Denver run game is a well oiled machine. Denver has a lighter offensive line that is predicated on zone blocking, pulling, and trapping. Denver has averaged 143 rush yards per game and 4.5 per pop, the colts D has given up 158 yards per game on the ground and 5.2 per pop. Also keep in mind that those 158 yards a game were all in WINS Teams that were either equal to or LOSING to the colts and not running out leads.

- Denvers offense can run smoothly with a good run game. If Jake can play "game manager" he has a good record as a Bronco QB, when you take away that run game and turn Jake into a QB, then we all see that famous "Jake the joke. I am very confident that Jake will be able to just manage the game like when he had a decent 2005 season. His main problems in 05, were when teams with a rush D, forced him to be a QB.

- I don't think Indy will have much success running the ball. The Broncos have been giving up Under 100 yards per game, and below 3.6 per carry. Their front 7 is VERY good, and John Lynch is also strong in support when they move 8 in the box or "rover" him.

- Indy might not have much success running the ball, but they are built on the pass. The colts have shredded Denver in the playoffs before ( revenge factor anyone?), and before last year there was speculation on Mike Shannihans job. Shanny just couldn't beat Manning in the playoffs. But Denver went through some changes in the last few years. Denver traded superstar runningback Clinton Portis to Washington for corner Champ Baily and a draft pick that turned into Tatuem Bell. Denver saw Indy as a brewing dynasty, and management knew that if they wanted to go to a superbowl, they would have to go through Indy. The Broncos figured they wouldn't be able to outscore the colts, so they changed their team to specifically beat the colts with D. They traded away Portis, and brought in Baliey, and John Lynch in the secondary. They overhauled their D-Line with the old Browns talented high draft picks.The Bronco D has been just plain nasty, they will have a top 5 defense in the NFL when this season is all said and done. They have been giving up 4 points per game at home, under 200 yards passing, and under 100 yards running. The Broncos are one of the few remaining teams I see that can play Man to Man coverage on a regular basis against the pass. Their front 4 might not get a lot of sacks, but they do put pressure on opposing quarterbacks and force mistakes. On running plays, it amazes me how they re-establish a new line of scrimdge 1 or 2 yards in the backfield. They also have some crazy blitzes. Last Thanksgiving we saw them line up 7-9 defenders in a row across on the line, filling every gap. Those blitzes confuse the O-lineman into making mental mistakes on which gap/player to block. We all remember the blue print that the Chargers and Steelers laid out to beat Indy last year... Blitz, Blitz, Blitz on defense, and Run, Run Run on offense and control the clock.

Denver has a really good defense. They should be able to stop the colts rushing attack, and turn them one dimensinal. They have the personel on defense that can play both Man and Zone in coverage, and they do know how to blitz.

The fact that the Broncos field is grass should only slow down the colts passing more. Indy has had 4 of thier last 5 games in the Dome, and the Grass and Mile High altitude will be a different ball game that could start them off out of sync.

Not only has Indy played 4 out of 5 indoor in the RCA Dome, but Denver has one of the best homefield advantages in all of sports, and one of the best in football. I also love the fact that the over Under is pretty low for Indy, pegged at 38. This also suggests that the odds makers don't see this one as a shootout.

Right now the public is pounding the Colts at over 70%. They think it's pure Gold that they are an undefeated team getting nearly a field goal. I think the colts will lose, and set up a blockbuster game next weekend. The Colts hungry off a loss to play their rival Patriots.

I want to get Denver -1, but I'd play Denver -2.5 as well.
Denver Broncos

I will try and get to the rest later, but I am scooting out of town tommorow so no promises. I post my stuff on a popular online forum ( that will not be named) as well. My picks have been "temporarily" being withheld from there right now and I am deciding whether or not to ever post there again. I might just try and focus on these blog entries if enough people view.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Week 7 picks/plays

Pats ML 2.5 units to win 1
Chiefs +6 (sucker bet special) 1.5 units
Pitt/Philly/ Seattle ML parlay .5 units to win 1
Pitt -2.5 (1unit)
Cincy -3 ( 1unit)

Carolina @ Cincy -3
Detroit @ Jets -3.5
GB @ Miami -5.5
Jax @ Houston +9.5
NE -5.5 @ Buffalo
Philly -5.5 @ Tampa
Pitt -2.5 @ Atlanta
SD @ KC +6
Den -4.5 @ Cleveland
Arizona -3 @ Oakland
minny @ Seattle -6.5
Washington +9.5 @ Indy
Giants +3 @ Dallas

Week 7 Sucker bet

Week 7 - Kansas City Chiefs +6

One of the things I like to do when I cap a game at this point in the season is try and find a "similar" game that already happened. I might try and think how the game will play out, or see how the teams responded in a similar situation.

The game I think this will most resemble most in the SD Chargers season, is the game where they went into Baltimore and lost 13-16. The Chargers actually outplayed the Ravens in that game and still lost. The chargers had that lead and every opportunity to close out that game, but they didn't have that killer instinct. The Ravens couldn't run the ball, and Mcnair had a bad game ( minus the final drive). Even that final TD pass was in tight zone coverage and in front of the endzone, Todd Heap made an amazing play.

The Chargers are near the top of everybodies power rankings. They crusised over some weaker opponents this year and then lost in Baltimore. They outphysicaled the steelers in pittsburgh ( on national TV), and then beat the snot out of the 49ers. Everybody is calling Phillip Rivers the "real deal", just like people were calling Rex Grossman the real deal two weeks ago.

The Kansas City Chiefs are a different beast at home. They started the year off losing both the game and their quarterback to the Bengals. They have also blown out the 49ers at home. On the road they lost by a field goal to a tough denver team. Denver an San Diego are similar in talent level and they lost by 3 @ Denver. I know the Chargers beat the Steelers, and the Steelers beat the crap out of the chiefs, but these communitive math properties don't neccesarily work in football. The fact that the chiefs could play at denver says a lot.

One of the underrated aspects to this matchup I see is Rivers on the road. The Chiefs secondary is not bad. I'd say Surtan and Law are a top 5 conerback duo. You might just dismiss them as being "old", but Law still has it, and Surtan was once a top coverman too. There was a stat on one of the chiefs games, talking about their secondary and career interceptions and I think those current starters lead the NFL. This will be a tough game for a young Rivers on the road. I think Maryball will try and limit the passing into easier more manageable throws if he can. I really don't see San Diego throwing the ball around a lot. I can see the chargers gameplan as a lot more running.

For the Chiefs offense, I don't think LJ will be running wild this week. That advantage of having the talented Will Shields and Brian Waters in the middle will at least be partially whiped out by Jamal Williams. I think Julious Peppers is probably the best defensive player in the NFL, but Jamal Williams is one of the top 5 most valueable to his team. The chargers front 7 is just that good, that you can't count on the Chiefs run game. The chargers have not allowed a 100 yard rusher all season, and they have not even allowed a 75 yard rusher! Before we crown them the best run defense ever though, lets remember some of the teams and situations they played. When the 49ers, titans, and raiders are losing by 4 touchdowns, they have little incentive to run the ball. The other games were tough physical games against the ravens and steelers that were virtually stalemates.

I do think the chargers are more vulnerable in the secondary, and Damon Huard has been playing some smart football. I think he will also have a conservative gameplan as implemented by his coach. He might not be a young quarterback, but he is a relatively NEW quarterback as far as staring goes.

Field position and turnovers will be of PARAMOUNT importence in this game. Everybody loves to just cap offenses, and defenses and say... The Chargers are a lock. Some people might even look at the coaches as well... Even though Rivers is better than Huard, I believe Rivers is more likely to turn the ball over on the road, against the chiefs verteran secondary than Huard is. I think the Chargers will have a balanced gameplan at best, but they will probably be conservative. The special teams in the return game should be a factor in this game. If the game does turn out to be similar to that ravens 13-16 game... then punt returns should be huge and field position game should be huge. The chiefs have the best return man in the NFL in the last 5 years... Daunte the X factor.

Kansas City is a hostile enviornment. It is widely considered the #1 homefield advantage in football, and many don't consider it a 3 point homefield advantage, but 4 points. SD is very aware of this homefield advantage. They have been practicing "noise" and "no huddle" in practice and are aware of their past failers in kansas city. I don't care about how noisy a stadium is, but I care about taking away opponents focus.

I think those KC fans will remember why a successfull Martyball was run out of town. The chargers could have a lead in this game, but he could run the famous martyball, "prevent offense" and cost his team the game, or show chargers betters the old Moose. It seems to me that Martyball is just focused on "winning this game". Betters think the chargers will just roll in this game, but martyabll himself knows it will be a tough game in KC today.

I don't see the Chargers scoring more than 20 points. That makes me comfortable because If the chargers score no more than 20, I certainly think the Cheifs can score 14 points at home and at least cover. The Ravens/ Chargers game was 16-13, and I think this game could have a score somewhere in that range. I am not much of a totals guy, but U44 looked solid which is why that total has dropped 4.5 points in some places.

Public pounding KC with 75% of the bets on them

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Week 6 picks

Total 36-38
Last week 7-7
Every week I have been .500 or better except I got destroyed week 1. I also feel like I lost a lot of those games by less than 1 pt. Some of those games I didn't care about, I lost by a tiny margin, or a backdoor cover.

Buffalo at Detroit +1
- Detroit has been close to winning a game, Losman is a road fade.
Carolina @ Baltimore -3
- Don't really have an opinion on this game, but it will be tought for carolina to win.
Cincy -4.5 @ Tampa
- Carson Palmer vs Brad Gradkowski
Houston @ Dallas -13
- Houston is an automatic road fade
Giants +3 @ Atlanta
- The Giants are the better team and they are getting 3 points, they should slow down falcons rush attack
Philly -3 @ New Orleans
- The Eagles send cinderella home early this week
Seattle @ St. Louis + 3.5
- The pre-game shows will crown the rams the new cinderella after they win outright this week
Titans @ Washington -10.5
- The Wash D, will force Vince to throw the ball and play QB. Wash O will play run over a weak Tenn D
KC @ Pittsburgh -6.5
- Steelers bounce back and beat the chiefs. Steelers slow down LJ, and pressure Huard
Miami +1 @ Jets
- Little opinion on this game, but the public is pounding the Jets. Harrington could outplay C-Pepp
SD @ San Fran + 10.5
- DD home dog, sandwich game for SD, let down game for SD, this game has backdoor cover written all over it.
Oakland @ Denver -14
- The Faiders are an automatic road fave. Shannihan owns Oakland.
Chicago -9.5 @ Arizona
- The Bears hype will live on another week. Newbie Leinart will be missing Larry Fitz.

Week 6 plays

Plays are with a 50 unit bankroll, and I am up 25 units 12-6 ATS
1-0 Teasers3-0 ML1-0 ML parlay1-1 Quarter Lines4 winning weeks, 0 losing weeks, 1 Push week
last week 1-2 ATS, 1-0 ML, 0-1 on a Quarter line to break even

This weeks plays...
Redskins & Steelers ML Parlay (5 units to win 3)
Bengals -4.5 ( 2.5 units)
Eagles -2.5 ( 2.5 units)
Da Bears -9.5 ( 2 units)
Giants +3 ( 2 units)
Rams +3.5 ( 1.5 units)

also looking at San Fran at 4PM

Redskins/ Steelers ML Parlay ( 5 units)
I really like this play, as I really like both teams to win...

The short version, is the redskins should win at home, against a terrible road team in Tennesse. So far Tennesse has put up ...
13 points vs a weak Indy D
14 vs dallas
10 vs miami
7 vs San Diego

Tennesse hadn't run the ball at all, until they ran for over 200 against the colts. The Colts escaped and won by 1, but if Indy had built a 2 TD lead early on, they could have easily won by 3,4 or 5 touchdowns.

Washington should be able to stop the titans run, and force Vince Young to play quarterback. This is the same Vince Young who only threw for 63 yards and 1 pick against the colts weak defense. This is the same Vince Young with a side arm delivery who throws the ball like he is flinging shit.

According to the the Titans have the worst DVOA in the entire NFL. I think last week's 1 point loss was more of a function of Indy playing bad, than the titans playing well. Tennesse basically has a -25% DVOA for offense and a + 25% Dvoa for defense. That basically means that their offense is 25% worse than a ghost "average" offense, and their defense is 25% worse than an average " ghose" defense. That might not sound like a lot, but it adds up.

I'm not a big fan of the washington redskins, and in fact I predicted them to finish last in the NFC East when ESPN was hyping them up to represent the NFC east in the superbowl.

I went to the gym today and saw Brandon Lloyd on TV. He was on TV showing off his H2 Hummer, with hydrolics, rims, sound system etc. This is the same Brandon Lloyd that was traded away from San Francisco for being a problem. I guess he's also an amatuer " rapper"... maybe he can make some rhymes about how he is overpaid and hasn't done anything so far this season. The skins wasted a 3rd round draft pick and 25 million bucks on him. Before last week had 11 receiving yards on 1 catch. There are tons of receivers in the league who don't "rap", don't cost 25 million bucks, don't bitch for the ball etc. Mr. Colston in New Orleans for example is a 7th round pick rookie and has done MUCH better than Brandon Lame.

I was on washington two weeks ago a sucker bet, then I rode the Giants last week to beat them. The redskins are very fortunate enough to draw Tennesse this week. The skins have a power rushing attack behing a good offensive line, and then a dink and dunk passing attack. The Giants stuffed their run, and covered up that conservative passhing attack. The thing is that tennssee will have trouble with portis and the running attack, and their secondary can't tackel at all. I look for another conservative game plan with 5 yard passes to Santana Moss to be run back 60 yards for a touchdowns.

The Steelers are the other leg of this ML parlay. The steelers are the superbowl champs but aren't sitting pretty at 1-3 with three straight losses. I heard Quadry Ismail on the radio on friday talking about " Should the steelers replace Big Ben with Charlie Batch"? I almost threw up my lunch when I heard that! I am no big ben fan by any stretch of the imagination. Big Ben has had a solid career in Pittsburgh thus far "managing games". It almost reminds me of when A-Rod goes 0-4 in a baseball game and then ESPN says he isn't clutch, is in a slump, and should be traded.

The steelers traditionally start off slow in seasons, but they are a different beast at home. I think the Steelers are so good at home, because that grass slows down opposing offenses making that solid defense VERY solid. The steelers power running attack is also BETTER on that grass. The steelers probably have the best O-Line coach in the NFL in Russ Grimm, and one of the top defensive coordinators in Lebeau. I think with a few weeks of film and mistakes to go over, they bounce back... Big Ben couldn't possibly play any worse, and I think they run the ball and have a play action passing game....

Back up Damon Huard has played well for KC thus far, but I believe Heinz field has the lowest QB rating for opposing QB's. LJ got hurt at the end of last week, and I dont think the steelers rush D will be very kind to him. I know Joey P is scheduled not to play, but the steelers have a solid UNIT at stopping the run. I see a lot of pressure on Huard for the cheifs on offense without that run game. I am not sold at all on the cheifs Defense as well.

Herm Edwards was preaching and talking all kinds of shit after the win @ arizona last week, but if Neil Crackers makes that 51 yard field goal, the game goes to OT. In fact, it looked like Dee Brown fumbled at the 1 also.

The steelers snap their 3 game losing streak, and win at home where they are a different beast. Cheifs are on their second straight road game, and were lucky to get the win at Arizona.

Bengals -4.5 ( 2.5 units)

Not sure if I am even going to play this game. I bought this line last sunday night and it got pounded all the way up to 6 and 6.5 in some places. I think the Bengals bounce back after the bye and poor showing vs New England. Tampa's defense still scares me some, and I don't like how the Bucs are hungry for a win.

I'd almost be scared this game is a sucker bet, but Tampa could have been considered a sucker bet last week. One one hand, you see Carson Palmer vs Gradkowski and could envision the Bengals winning by 3 TD. I could see Gradkowski screwing up with that poor O-Line and against those all hawk bengal secondary. On the other hand the Bucs Defense should be better, and they are hungry for a win.

Eagles -2.5 ( 2 units)

Everybody says the Eagles are due for a let down after last week. I think a "let down" would apply more to a team that wins one, losses one, wins two, losses two etc. It's funny how the Eagles are due for a letdown at 4-1. Is a team that is 9-1 due for a let down after a big win? I think a let down situation more applies to a 6-4 team, or a bad team off an upset win etc. I do think the better team won last week in Philly.

In fact, the eagles have outplayed every opponent they have faced. They outplayed the Giants but somehow lost. They have actually held the door open on a number of games, as they have jumped out to early leads.

It's funny how people still call Donovan "Mcnaverage". Donovan is not an elite quarterback because of his feet, or his arm, or even his receivers... Donovan is an elite QB because of his MIND. He makes good choices, and his offense is pretty much un-defendable when run correctly. They run a read and react passing offense, where somebody will be open on any given passing play. It is donovans job to hit that open guy, and he does.

That offenese is very good for a quarterback who knows WHO to throw the ball to. That offense is NOT good for a receiver who wants the ball every play regardless of the coverage, down and distance, and matchups ( yeah I am looking at you TO).

I think Drew Brees is starting to excell at those same things donovan is good at. He learned how to play QB in San Diego, and is doing a good job this year as a hired gun for the saints. It's funny because you don't just turn into a QB instantly. These guys that play QB ( donovan, Drew Brees, Eli, Peyton, Carson, trent green) didn't all just start off with super success. Drew Brees started off his career slowly, but gets better each and every year. I think teams and coaches should have a little bit slower hook with their young quarterbacks because it takes time to learn the position. In the past, QB's used to sit on the bench for three years before they even saw the field.

I think the Saints have a tough test against the Eagles aggressive defense, and I don't think the saints defense is all that great to contain the eagles offense. The eagles are a more legit 4-1 team in my opinion, and the hyped up saints lose this week. I think after the saints lose, and the rams win,the Mike Golics of the NFL will be talking about how it was the RAMS who are the top sleeper team in the NFL. The last thing the public needs, is for mike golic to be telling them that " this team is for real". I am sure all the talking heads on the pregame shows will have known it all along.

Rams +3.5 ( 1.5 units)
See sucker bet thread

Giants +3 at Atlanta ( 2 units)

I think the Giants are the better team here.

This is the second easiest game the Giants have so far this season. Indy, @ Philly, @ Seattle is no joke. The Giants would have liked to come out 2-1, but 1-2 wasn't that bad. They had their easiest game last week, and beat the redskins pretty bad. They only won by 16, but with 5 trips to the redszone they could have easily won by 20+ points.

Atlants is probably playing their 2nd or 3rd hardest game. They beat Carolina without steve smith, but got embarassed against the Saints.

In short,
The Falcons like to run the ball, but the Giants defense is strong against the run.
The Giants can pass the ball, but the Falcons are stronger against the pass.

People are talking bad about the Giants secondary, but they have 50% new starters, really 60% in nickel coverage, and started out against maybe the 3 best QB's in the game. Peyton, Donovan and Hasselback. Those teams had good offenses, highlighted by good Quarterbacks ( not game managers). After a few of those poor outings, the Giants should have corrected those defensive assignments.

Michael Pick is in no way shape or form a good Quarterback. Most players get better and better as their career wears on, but Michael Pick is the same player as he was 6 years ago.

The Definition of Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again, yet expecting different results.

This year new Offensive coordinator Gregg Knapp decided instead of trying to turn Michael Pick into a thrower, to rivert back to a highschool or college offense and use his talents. I disagree with this because they don't run the option in the NFL for a reason.

I wish I was in the Giants locker room trying to break down the Falcons because they wouldn't be that hard to defend. Their favorite play is a stretch play to the right, where the whole offensive line blocks down, and Pick either hands it off to Dunn, or he fakes the handoff and runs a naked bootleg.

The Cardinals tried to defend this by having the weakside DE not crash down, but to strafe along the line of scrimege and try and cut off Pick. It didn't work too well, because although B. Berry is a good End, he isn't the fastest player in the world.

Later in the game, the Falcons ran this play again. They love to run this play inside the red zone to get Pick to score and make the fans go nuts. They ran the regular handoff to dunn, but then went back to the handoff to Pick. This time, the LB's had clear assignments...

The MLB played the handoff to dunn
The Sam attacked the handoff to dunn as well
" but the will played the bootleg"

The Cardinals had a no-name linebacker playing "will", but by knowing " what to attack" even he stopped Michael Pick on his favorite play.

I'd like to think the New York Giants and their fulltime coaching staff saw what I saw and will make the neccessary adjustments. " MLB and SAM to attack the run, while the WILL plays the bootleg".

The Falcons have been able to run those plays on offense, but aren't very good on the short field near the redszone. They have other plays they run off that one play, including plays were Pick rolls out, and the tight end rolls out with him. If the first read isn't open, michael pick takes off and runs. Their red zone struggles have got to worry Atlanta backers.

I just see the Falcons running this highschool/ college offense. I think Pick needs to work harder, and doesn't even want to learn. Before the season started he said " Just let Michael Pick be Michael Pick". He said he didn't want to be a drop back player, but wanted to run. That tells me he is too lazy to learn defenes and play pro QB, and that he doesn't even WANT to. A lot of QB's look at the ariel screen shots when they are on the bench, but Michael Pick just sits on the bench with this blank stare on his face.

The Giants weakness on D, has been the pass, but Michael Pick is not a very good passing QB. I think the fast defensive ends in NY ( especially Osi right in his face), and a smart MLB in Pierce should give him fits.

On the other side of the ball, Eli Manning is the complete opposite. Manning has been getting better every year, and can make the adjustments at the line of scrimge.

The Falcons build a fast defense that is supposed to stop the pass, but the Giants aren't just a run and gun team, I wouldn't be suprised to see a heavy dose of Tiki and Brandon Jacobs as well.

I've heard reports that John Abraham is NOT 100% but he will play. I think people that like the falcons, Love them because they get Abraham back. Eli Manning reads a defense and gets rid of the ball pretty quickly though. I wouldn't be surpised if Manning gets sacked less this year than Michael Pick who holds onto the ball and has weak pocket presence.

I don't think the Dome will hurt the Giants, as they have a speedy front 7, and they use all their playmakers on offense.

I also think the falcons have a thug secondary, that is prone to penalties.

I see the Giants winning this game outright, but I'll take the 3 pts. If the Giants build a lead and force atlanta to pass, I'd love to see that!

Week 6 sucker bet

5-0 YTD

Week 1 - Seattle -6 @ Detriot
Week 2- Carolina -3 @ Minnesota
Week 3- Baltimore Ravens -7 @ Cleveland
Week 4- Jacksonville -3 @ Washington
Week 5- Kansas City -3.5 @ Arizona

Congrats to all who were along for the Cardiac Cardinals last week

One of the things about this sucker bet, is that a lot of these games come down to the very end. Every single one of these games was won by less than a touchdown. That means this isn't one of those blowout wins you count on... you have had to sweat these games out until the bitter end.

Week 6- Rams +3.5 (bodog line)

This was the hardest sucker bet for me to pick yet. Each week we have seen these lines that people just blindly jump on. I think last week was a little bit different, in that people were playing KC off the blowout win and the cards after a blowout loss. I don't think people seemed to notice that the Cards switched QB's, and are actually a much better team at home. This week was difficult to pick because those huge public plays are not ALWAYS losers. If there were any trends that were right 100% of the time, gambeling would be easy. If people think that they can just fade the largest plays and win everytime, they are are wrong.

To go along with that theme, the Eagles are the anti-sucker bet of the week which I will go into detail later. The fact that I like the Eagles to beat the Saints, HELPS my logic with the rams over seattle.

So far this season, on all the pre-game shows we keep hearing about how " the saints are the sleeper team of the year thus far". Well I think cinderella goes home early this week, and the rams will be crowned " the NEW sleeper team of the year". After New Orleans losses to the Eagles, the Saints will be 4-2, while the Rams will be sitting atop their divison at 5-1. Not only will the Rams be in first place, but the Rams will have knocked off the division leader and NFC superbowl representative. The rams have a bye in week 7, and will enter the bye week as the talk of all the pregame shows. We will unfortunatly have to hear the Chris Collinsworths, Terry Bradshaws, and Mike Golics talk about how they " saw the rams as the sleeper team all along".

Besides my own personal blog, one of the sites I would reccomend for information is These guys have a "moneyball" approach to football and statistics. Right now the Rams are ranked 8th in the NFL with a DVOA of 16.2%. Seattle is ranked 18th with a DVOA of -.08%. If you are unfamiliar with DVOA's it basically means that the rams are operating 16.2% better than an average "ghost team" in certain situations, while seattle has basically been performing average. On defnese, the negative number for both defenses is good, means that opposing offenses are performing basically 5 and 10 percent WORSE than average.

Rams total DVOA 16.2%... offense 11.5%... defense -4.6%
Seattle total DVOA -.8%......offense -9.8% ....defense-10.5%

Now I am not one to go just on rankings, because rankings represent " what happened", and we are looking for " what's going to happen. The DVOA's also don't really take into consideration "home and road", but they do try and factor in competition played. Right now, their algorhtyems are also factoring a little bit of the preseason as well, because the regular season has only seen 5 or 6 trials for most teams. I wouldn't try and go soley by DVOA's, but I do give the creators credit with trying to create a "master rankings formula".

- Seattle last year was 8-0 at home ( 10-0 counting playoffs) , but only 5-3 on the road ( 5-4 counting the super bowl)
- The rams were both 3-5 at home and on the road last year, but the previous year they were 6-2 at home but only 2-6 on the road with a realativly similar cast of players.

The point I am trying to get at, is that Seattle not only has a strong homefield advantage, but they are also a bad road team. Seattle was undefeated at home, but played almost .500 ball on the road.

To go along with that point, let's take a look at seattle against their own divison last year...
Beat the rams by 15 at home last year, but beat the rams by 6 on the road last year
Beat the 49ers by 38 at home last year, but beat the 49ers by 2 on the road last year
Beat the Cardinals by 25 at home last year, but beat the Cards by 14 on the road last year

So far, nothing has changed for seattle. In week 1 they beat the winless Lions by only a field goal. Two weeks ago they got demolished by the bears on the road.

St. Louis has defended their home field thus far. They beat a good Denver team in week 1, and they won a shootout against the Lions in the "martz bowl".

A lot of people are going to point out who the rams beat, and how they beat them. The rams were fortunate enough to get 5 turnovers against Denver, as the Broncos really probably beat themselves. The rams also beat weaker teams in Green Bay, Detroit, and Arizona. I really can't disagree with that. What I can bring up though, is that the weaker schedule is not their fault. The rams are 4-1 and have beaten who they had to play. The rams might have been "lucky", but why can't they continue to be "lucky"? Last year the Jags and Seahawks had the easy schedules. The Jags got banged out in their first playoff game, while the Seahawks went all the way to the Super Bowl.

If you want to talk about not being too impressive, look at seattle. They barly beat the winless Lions in week 1. They skated by the Warner Cardinals in week 2 , the Giants had multiple turnovers and beat themselves in week 3, and the hawks got eaten up by the bears two weeks ago.

The Seahawks have had trouble scoring points this year. They only put up 6 on the bears on the road, 9 against the Lions on the road, and 21 against the cards. If you took away the Giants game, the Hawks offense has really been struggling. If you took away the Giants game, they have only put up 12 points per game, and only 7.5 on the road.

Matt Hasselback hasn't been himself this year. I'd say Hasselback is one of the better QB's in the league. I'd say he's a late top 5QB, or middle of the pack for the top 10. Right now Hasselback has a QB Rating of only 74, he has 6 TD's to 7 Picks, and only 853 yards. I'd say that the lack of that luxary run game has put a lot more pressure on Hasselback. The hurting run game could be a function of losing mauler steve hutchingson at Left Guard, and Alexander playing through some pain...

on the road week 1... Alexander had only 51 rushing yards against DET in the dome, and 2 fumbles. Hasselback was 25/30 for an efficient 210 yards.

On the road against the Bears... Morris only had 35 rushing yards, while Da Bears were able to run on seattles defense.

I think Maurice Morris is one of the better backup runningbacks in the league, and I think he could have rushed for 1200 yards behind that line last year, but shaun alexander was an ATM inthe redzone last year... Shaun Alexander was an "automatic touchdown machine" in the redzone last year. Alexander had 27 rushing touchdowns last year! He did rack up a lot of stats against weaker competition, but he made hasselbacks job easier. This time around, the Hawks might have some of those "Automatic 27 touchdowns" turning into "automatic Josh Brown field goals"... not good for seattle.

Along those rushing lines, is the fact that Stephen Jackson is leading the NFL in rushing right now. I'd actually like to point out that he has a legit chance of being crowned the rushing leader. Last years top 5 ( alexander, tiki, LJ, Portis, and edge) are kind of banged up right now.

Look at how the Rams have changed as a philosphy. They go from a pass happy matchup offense with Mike Martz, to a much more balanced attack under Scott Linehan. Mark Bulger doesn't have to go out there and throw for 300 yards to win anymore. ( BTW Bulger has a great home record). Now the Rams have bulked up their defense, and given Bulger a run game. Bulger has been much more efficient this year. He has 1200+ yards, 7 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 94 QB rating. So with the rams, you have an efficient QB, and the leading rusher in the league and a more balanced offense.

On defense, the biggest addition is their new Defensive coordinator. Jim Haslett might have not been the best coach in the league, but he has improved their defense. I actually like the rams front 4. They now have some real meat in the middle of their D-Line, with La Roi Glover ( maybe the strongest guy in the NFL), Jimmy Kennedy and his push, and Lennard Little. I am not a big fan of Lennard Little as a person, but he is a very good pass rusher. It looks like they have a quality D-Line that is strong up the middle for the run, and can also rush the passer.

I'd like to say that with some key injuries that this game also goes "over" 44.5
Will Weatherspoon looks like a no go, while the rams have 2 questionable corners...
Marcus Tubbs looks like a no go, while seattle has 2 questionable safeties...

The Seahawks have been running a lot of 4 WR formations. They sometimes liked to RUN out of this, as they spread out the defense horizontally, and then had alexander running more isolated on linebackers, but it's also dangerous against the pass.

This is the biggest game the rams have had in over 2 years, and I think that dome will be LOUD. People will be checking out if the "overrated 4-1" rams are for real, and I think they win this week and add fuel to the fire. The Seahawks were 6-0 in the division last year, and if you think they will lose ANY divisional games this year, this is the most likely loss in my opinion. I don't think they go 6-0 in the division, and there is an outside chance that they have the superbowl hangover syndrome and miss the playoffs. I guess a lot of people are playing the Hawks after the blowout loss and the bye, thinking it is guaranteed the 13-3 hawks bounce back but these are two different teams from last year. The "better" hawks from last year only beat the weaker rams by 6 in st. louis. I think the rams are probably better, and the hawks aren't as good as they were last year.

I also like the "no more mike martz stupid mistake" worries. The fact that I think the saints lose, and the rams win, makes them a huge "cinderella team" story for all the pregame talking heads. I do think the rams don't deserve to be 4-1, and I do they they are and will be overrated, but they will live to die another day.

I think this will be an exciting "over" bet and sucker bet, that once again comes down to the last possession.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Week 5

Plays are with a 50 unit bankroll, and I am up 25 units and change
11-4 ATS
1-0 Teasers
2-0 ML
1-0 ML parlay
1-0 Quarter Lines
4 winning weeks, 0 losing weeks
last week 3-1 ATS, 1-0 on a teaser ( I don't consider teasers ATS)

I would have delivered nothing but winners two weeks in a row, but M. Colston from the Saints let the moose into Charlotte North Carolina last week.

Two weeks ago I said that I wanted to stop being a mechanical capper, and deliver nothing but winners. I wanted to go with my intuition and cap games by my gut instinct rather than all those fluffy stats. There are always stats FOR and AGAINST you each week. After I made that commitment, I went 4-0 ATS, and 2-0 ML two weeks ago, and 3-1 ATS and 1-0 on a teaser last week. That means I was 10-1 in my last 11 wagers.

My bankroll is right where I want it to be. I am playing with 25 units of the houses money right now, and I can be a little bit more aggressive with my plays if I want.

Week 5 plays
New York Giants ML ( 5 units) -220
Arizona Cardinals +4 ( 2.5 units) at Bodog
Dallas +2 ( 2 units)
Indy -17.5 ( 1.5 Units)
Indy 1st Quarter -4.5 ( 1 unit)

Picks ATS
Tennesse @ Indy ( line now at 17)
Washington @ New York -6
Detroit +6.5 @ Minny
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans -6.5
St Louis @ Green Bay +2.5
Miami @ New England -9.5
Buffalo @ Chicago -9.5
Cleveland @ Carolina -7.5
Jets +6.5 @ Jags
Kc @ Arizona +4
Oakland @ San Fran -3
Dallas +2 @ Philly
Pittsburg +3.5 @ San Diego
Baltimore @ Denver -4

I don't like a lot of those games. Who wants to lay all those 7+ point spreads?

Saturday, October 07, 2006

Week 5 sucker bet

Kansas City @ Arizona +3.5

Right now the Arizona Cardinals are the least popular pick according to with over 70% of people on Kansas City. The Cardinals are a 1-3 team right now, with their lone win a 34-27 shootout against the lonley 49ers that broke in their new stadium. After their win, they lost divisonal games to Seattle and St. Louis, and were embarassed by the Falcons last week.

The Chiefs on the other hand are coming off a 41-0 romp off those same 49ers that played with the Cardinals. The Chiefs also lost an overtime game at denver, and lost to cincinatti in a game that they lost their quarterback.

I'm pretty familiar with the Arizona cardinals, as I watched almost every single one of their games last year, and I just got done watching the entire falcons/Cards game from last week over again before I finalized my pick. I actually spotted out a lot of important things about both the falcons and cardinals.

Before this season started, I was looking at arizona as a possible sleeper team. They have skilled position players on offense, they have a former MVP at QB, a hesiman trophy winner backing him up, an underrated defense, a proven coach, a proven kicker, a new statidum, and a weaker division. Things haven't turned out well thus far, but lets examine their season so far...

Week 1- They WON @ Home against San Fran.
Kurt Warner... 300+ yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, but 3 fumbles
even though they only beat San Fran you have to get excited with the 34 pts. they put up.
week 2- Lost @ Seattle
Kurt Warner... 231 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 fumbles
I have to discount the fact that they lost in seattle. No visitor won a game in seattle last year.
week 3- Lost @ home to St. Louis
Kurt Warner...250+ yards, 1 TD, 3 INT and 1 fumble
The cards did lose this game, but it was a close hard fought battle. They shut down stephen jackson, but Bulger threw for over 300 yards.
Week 4- Lost @ Atlanta
Kurt Warner had a horrible game and was pulled. Warner had 1 pick and 2 fumbles, he tripped over his own linemans feet, he had was rushed.
- Somewhere lost in the stats in this game, is that fact that BOTH defenses scored touchdowns, and the fact that the falcons were terrible in the redzone kicking 5 fieldgoals.

I watched at least half the falcons/cards game last week live ( I bet the over under), but I just sat down and watched the entire game before I finalized this pick. The Atlanta Falcons were honestly running a highschool or college offense. They ran option keepers, and they move their whole offensive line to the right, and either hand it off to Dunn, or run a naked bootleg with #7. The cards were for the most part NOT having the Left defensive end ( B. Berry) crash in, but to strafe sideways as if to defend that Vick bootleg.

There was an interesting play at the end of the first half where the Falcons were running that same play ( one of their favorites) inside the redzone near the goalline. The Cardinals had their middle and RIGHT OLB attack the right side of the line if Vick were to handoff the ball to Dunn, while the Left outside linebacker and left end tried to play vick and the bootleg. By the cardinals already having their assignments mapped out, their defense was very effective. I'd imagine other coaches in the NFL saw what I saw, and instead of everybody playing the ball in the future, they will already have their assignments mapped out. The middle and right linebackers will play the run, while the left DE, and OLB will automatically play the bootleg.

I was also very impressed with Matt Leinart. If anybody knows me, they know that I am NOT one to trust Young Quarterbacks ( but then again why trust Damon Huard). Matt leinart went 37-2 in college football. The guy was on the sidelines paying attention to the game, and doing everything you want of a backup quarterback ( high fiving guys, trying to hype people up etc.). The offense looked totally different with him in the game. He DID have a fumble when the line got knocked back into him, and he did throw a pick ( on a tipped ball), but pretty much everything else was flawless. They ran some quick high percentage plays for him early ( a quick throw out to fitzgerald), but he did also make some plays. I also noticed that it helped open up edge and the running game some. If you watched the game, you would see that NOTHING was really going well with Warner, but suddenly Leinart made a couple small plays and the falcons had to honor EVERYTHING. The annoucner was also talking about how well Leinart played against the bears in preseason. Granted it is only Preseason, but it was 4 days after signing his contract and ending a hold out. The guy is used to playing in big national championship type games, and he does have some talent surrounding him. I know it is almost a right of passage to lose your first game as a starter, but I am not so quick to take hand that loss to Matt Leinart against a career backup quarterback.

One thing that did bother me about the Cards was their offensive line. That line was terrible all of last year. They had the worst run game in the league, and it doesn't look any better this year even WITH edge james. People mistakenly call the cardinals line ' good" because they are the heaviest offensive line in the league. Denver could routinly have the lightest line in the league, and have a top notch run game because those guys pull, trap, and zone block... The cardinals did NONE of that. I guess arizona relies on their lineman just over powering opponenets, but that just doesn't happen. I watched every single offensive play for arizona and I did not ONCE see a lineman pull. Somebody needs to get through to their coaching staff, and change the WAY their line blocks. People automatically assume that a bad line just needs to be replaced, but maybe these guys need to change their philosophies. A heavy line also isn't always effective in the passing game because sometimes thos big guys can't move their feet quick enough.... but like I said, the running game did start to open up when Leinart was hitting those quick throws.

I am not a big fan of staring young quarterbacks. I think they should sit and wait their turn, until they can be presented with a win-able situation. Kurt Warner has played horrible thus far and Leinart actually gives them a better chance to win. Warner has been a fumble machine, and has made numerous other mistakes. I know he really only got good action on that one drive, but the difference looked like night and day.

This week the cards defense is matched up against a more traditional offense in Kansas city. I like how they just came off a blowout win, and people are looking to play the cheifs. Here are some things to remember...

Damon Huard is their starting Quarterback. The guy didn't sit on the bench for almost a decade for no reason... I know it is easy to forget the cheifs problems after a 41-0 win, but let me remind you...

- Damon Huard had 2 fumbles in relif against the bengals, and he had 2 fumbles against the broncos.
- LJ couldn't run the ball agains the bengals and their weakness.
- 2-3 years ago, the chiefs had about the worst defense in all of pro football. Last year they started just blitzing the house. They probably did improve some, but I am not quick to annoint them even an average defense yet. Do you really like that front 7? I know I don't.

This game will more resemble the game the Cards loss to St Louis. by 2 points than any of the other games they have played. In that game they shut down Stephen Jackson, but got burned by Marc Bulger. I think if there is any runningback and line to compare Larry Johnson to, it would be Stephen Jackson. They are both bigger backs, behind moderate lines. The main difference I see, is that Marc Bulger beat the Cards, were as Damon Huard will probably have more of a game manager type role. I also like the fact that in 2 of his 3 starts, he fumbled twice. I don't see LJ running wild, and I don't see Huard putting up a bulger type performance as the cards ARE better at home....

I think the game plan for Leinart, will probably be more of a game manager type role as well, but I also believe Denny Green will also have some "calculated risks" put into the gameplan ( for example maybe a few jump balls for Larry Fitz), or maybe a play action to go deep after a turnover etc... I think in general however, Leinart will also have a conservative gameplay ( but the running game should be more effective). The Falcons Defense in Atlanta, is better than the Chiefs defense in Phoenix. The Chiefs defense also had the easier task of being at home and facing the road 49ers last week.

I know I am not the only one who thought Arizona would be better this year. What if before this season started, I gave you the opportunity of taking Arizona at home +3.5 against a chiefs team with Damon Huard starting at Quarterback? I'll bet you that 70% percent of people wouldn't like the chiefs back in september in that situation, but a 41-0 romping and an arizona loss, and people are all about the cheifs.

I am on the unpopular Home Dog in Arizona. I don't like young quarterbacks, but Matt Leinart probably hasn't lost more than 5 games he started in his life. With a modest offensive game plan that mixes things up, and a shut down LJ task on defense, that the USC golden boy wins his first start.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Final week 4 card

Redskins +3 ( 2.5 units) ( fools gold special)
Indy -1, Baltimore +9 ( 2 unit teaser)
Baltimore +2 ( 1 unit)
Carolina -7 ( 1 unit)
Arizona/ ATL over 40 ( 1 unit)

could be more to come later ( possibly NE)

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]