Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Week 8 Sucker bet

Week 8: Denver Broncos -2.5 ( 5 units)

This is the first time I am selecting a favorite for my fools gold pick. Each and every week I put a lot of pride into my pick. Last week I narrowed down my selection to two teams and it was difficult to pull the trigger and make my final selection( both happened to win). This week it took me all of 2 seconds to see that Denver was the Sucker bet of the week. Right now I see the Line as Denver -2.5, but I believe it could go down to as good as -1. I will wait until later in the week to play the game, and I like this pick a lot. I'm going out of town on thursday, and I want to have it on record my units so I will try and somehow log onto later in the week.

A few weeks ago I realized that the Colts are a very vulnerable team. Their offense wasn't in sync, and their defense is one of the 5 worst defenses in the league. I just wanted to see Indy play even an average overall football team that could run the ball and play defense. Well, now I got my wish and see the Colts playing a good football team with an excellent run game and an excellent defense in Denver. The Giants ran all over them, the Titans ran all over them, they let that Midget Maurice Jones Drew look like Barry Sanders. It's not like Tiki Barber and the guys were getting lucky, there would rip 7 yard runs like it was nothing. I want to say that at one point in time that Jones-Drew was averaging around 10 yards per carry. I wonder why the colts can't play run defense at all.

Dwight Freeney is probably the most overrated player in all of football. He is good at putting pressure on the quarterback, but he is absolutly terrible against the run. Even if you go watch a little league game, the coach tells the defensive end to NOT spin because if you don't get a sack, you take yourself right out of the play. Not only does Freeney spin all the time, but he loops right around the tackle when he doesn't spin, giving opposing runningbacks a nice running lane for an off tackle run. The Giants and Jaguars exploited the hell out of it, and we all know Denver can run the ball. If Dwight Freeney gets 1 sack a game, but is personally responsible for giving up say 5-10 seperate seven yard runs... How valueable is he?

Tony Dungy is overrated as a coach. Every year we hear the same crap, we already know the colts have a good offense, but then the media tries to sell us that their defense is legit too. I want to say that 2 or 3 years ago the colts defense was actually ranked pretty well for most of the year. They were playing a weak schedule, and had run up some stats. It bothers me that a guy like Tony Dungy will be labeled a defensive "genius" or Brian Billeck will be labeled an "offensive genius". If I was the offensive coordinator in Minnesota and I had Cris Carter, Jake Reed, Randy Moss, Robert Smith and Korey Stringer I think I'd be a genius too. Dungy is credited with "turning around the Bucs D with his cover 2". Well maybe having Derrick Brooks, John Lynch, Warren Sapp, Hardy Nickerson, Rhonde Barber, Cheti Ahanatu ( I think he had Simeon Rice a year) had a little something to do with that as well? Dungy had a championship team in Tampa for years and never won the big game... the year after he leaves, coach Chucky wins the superbowl. Dungy has had very good regular season teams in Indy, but they get out played and out coached in the post season every year. Manning is labeled a chock artist ( and rightfully so), but coach Dungy gets a free pass. Bellicheck runs circles around them every year, and Shannihan has two rings of his own. Every year in Indy, the "defensive genius" has had a swiss cheese defense, but every year the media tries to tell you " it's better this year".

Two weeks ago the mild mannored Dungy called out his defense as being soft to the Media. They also had a desperation move in trading a 2nd round draft pick for Booger Mcfarland. I listened to some of Joe Gibbs press conference after last weeks game and he said a lot of Indys trouble on D was a lot of "stunting" they do with their front 7. I'm not exactly sure how accurate that is. These comments and trades don't look or sound like things from an undefeated football team. Calling out your piss poor defense, and bringing in an overweight guy named booger are desperation moves in my opinion. This defenes is in trouble and everybody knows it.

I hear a lot of cappers talk about a "let down game" after a big win, a "sandwhich game" between two big games, or a "look ahead game". I think people think this "look ahead game" is purly psychologial but it's not. The "look ahead game" is not just about worrying about next weeks opponent, I believe the biggest factor in a "look ahead game" is within the coaching staff. I believe the coaches might try and "hold back" some of those plays they are looking to run next week, or if they get a lead to run some vanilla offense or defense and not show anything. Those coaches also might try and run a little bit of a diversion by running stuff they " won't" want to run. Now Denver is a task in itself, but I think the colts and the Patriots are probably the biggest non-divisonal rivalry in all of football. The Patriots have really had the colts number, and they have a huge matchup next week. I'm not suggesting that Peyton will have Bill Bellicheck in his mind, but I am saying there is a chance that the play calls might be a little bit different. The eye in the sky never lies, and everything is recorded and scrtinized. The look ahead factor probably applies more to a crappy team before the good team, but the thought crossed my mind.


- Tatuem Bell should have a good game. There was a logic to start whichever runningback was playing the colts for fantasy football. Not only are the colts piss poor at run defense, but the Denver run game is a well oiled machine. Denver has a lighter offensive line that is predicated on zone blocking, pulling, and trapping. Denver has averaged 143 rush yards per game and 4.5 per pop, the colts D has given up 158 yards per game on the ground and 5.2 per pop. Also keep in mind that those 158 yards a game were all in WINS Teams that were either equal to or LOSING to the colts and not running out leads.

- Denvers offense can run smoothly with a good run game. If Jake can play "game manager" he has a good record as a Bronco QB, when you take away that run game and turn Jake into a QB, then we all see that famous "Jake the joke. I am very confident that Jake will be able to just manage the game like when he had a decent 2005 season. His main problems in 05, were when teams with a rush D, forced him to be a QB.

- I don't think Indy will have much success running the ball. The Broncos have been giving up Under 100 yards per game, and below 3.6 per carry. Their front 7 is VERY good, and John Lynch is also strong in support when they move 8 in the box or "rover" him.

- Indy might not have much success running the ball, but they are built on the pass. The colts have shredded Denver in the playoffs before ( revenge factor anyone?), and before last year there was speculation on Mike Shannihans job. Shanny just couldn't beat Manning in the playoffs. But Denver went through some changes in the last few years. Denver traded superstar runningback Clinton Portis to Washington for corner Champ Baily and a draft pick that turned into Tatuem Bell. Denver saw Indy as a brewing dynasty, and management knew that if they wanted to go to a superbowl, they would have to go through Indy. The Broncos figured they wouldn't be able to outscore the colts, so they changed their team to specifically beat the colts with D. They traded away Portis, and brought in Baliey, and John Lynch in the secondary. They overhauled their D-Line with the old Browns talented high draft picks.The Bronco D has been just plain nasty, they will have a top 5 defense in the NFL when this season is all said and done. They have been giving up 4 points per game at home, under 200 yards passing, and under 100 yards running. The Broncos are one of the few remaining teams I see that can play Man to Man coverage on a regular basis against the pass. Their front 4 might not get a lot of sacks, but they do put pressure on opposing quarterbacks and force mistakes. On running plays, it amazes me how they re-establish a new line of scrimdge 1 or 2 yards in the backfield. They also have some crazy blitzes. Last Thanksgiving we saw them line up 7-9 defenders in a row across on the line, filling every gap. Those blitzes confuse the O-lineman into making mental mistakes on which gap/player to block. We all remember the blue print that the Chargers and Steelers laid out to beat Indy last year... Blitz, Blitz, Blitz on defense, and Run, Run Run on offense and control the clock.

Denver has a really good defense. They should be able to stop the colts rushing attack, and turn them one dimensinal. They have the personel on defense that can play both Man and Zone in coverage, and they do know how to blitz.

The fact that the Broncos field is grass should only slow down the colts passing more. Indy has had 4 of thier last 5 games in the Dome, and the Grass and Mile High altitude will be a different ball game that could start them off out of sync.

Not only has Indy played 4 out of 5 indoor in the RCA Dome, but Denver has one of the best homefield advantages in all of sports, and one of the best in football. I also love the fact that the over Under is pretty low for Indy, pegged at 38. This also suggests that the odds makers don't see this one as a shootout.

Right now the public is pounding the Colts at over 70%. They think it's pure Gold that they are an undefeated team getting nearly a field goal. I think the colts will lose, and set up a blockbuster game next weekend. The Colts hungry off a loss to play their rival Patriots.

I want to get Denver -1, but I'd play Denver -2.5 as well.
Denver Broncos

I will try and get to the rest later, but I am scooting out of town tommorow so no promises. I post my stuff on a popular online forum ( that will not be named) as well. My picks have been "temporarily" being withheld from there right now and I am deciding whether or not to ever post there again. I might just try and focus on these blog entries if enough people view.

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