Sunday, November 30, 2008

Week 13 results

Titans -7 first half ( 1 unit) WIN
Titans -11 ( 1 unit ) WIN
Titans/Lions 2nd H under ( 1 unit ) WIN
Seahawks +12 ( 1 unit ) LOSS
Eagles -3 ( 1 unit ) WIN

Miami @ STL Over 44 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Miami @ STL 2nd h Over 21.5 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Green Bay -3 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Indy -5 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Baltimore -7 ( 1 unit) WIN
Washington +4 ( 1 unit) LOSS
4 team Parlay, Indy, Bal, Wash ML + Miami over = .5u LOSS

Denver +9 ( 1 unit ) WIN
Pittsburgh +2 ( 1 unit ) WIN
7-6 ATS + 1 unit
0-1 Parlay -.5 unit

It is always good to make money betting sports. NY Giants and Indy were both public plays, and I ended up fading the wrong one. I even made good arguments for the Giants/Indy, but went against them. Sometimes the public wins so you can't always fade them.
The Miami game was a tough break. There was plenty of scoring, the only problem is that 7 out of 8 scores were field goals. There is nothing that will kill overs easier than that.

- Washington can't win when Jason Campbell faces any sort of pressure.
- Baltimore keeps chugging along.- The Jets were a great public fade ( I was going to play den ml if I did better at 1pm)
- Pittsburgh and good defense beats good offense.
- Carolina has stunk it up on the road, but they played well in GB

add 4pm week 13

Tough 1pm

Denver +9 ( 1 unit)
Pittsburgh +2 ( 1 unit)



Miami/STL 2nd half over 21.5 ( 1 unit)

More thoughts on week 13

Week 13 Card
Miami/STL O44 ( 1 unit)
Green Bay -3 ( 1 unit)
Indy -5 ( 1 unit)
Baltimore -7 ( 1 unit)
Washington + 4 ( 1 unit)
Parlay: Wash ML, Indy ML, Bal ML, Mia.stlO44 (.5 units) pays 8.6 to 1

I'd consder adding Tampa at halftime if the opportunity is there, Denver, Den/Jets O 48, Oakland, Pitt at 4PM depending on how these games go. GL.

ADDI add a rare parlay, if washington wins, I get paid. I think the colts/ravens are pretty good to go just to win, and that the miami over has a better than 50% shot of hitting. I most likely lose this parlay, but it pays pretty well and has a decent shot of winning.

Wash ML +165
Colts ML -230
Ravens ML -310
Fins/Rams Over 44
Pays 8.6 to 1

I put .5 units down to win 4.25

More thoughts posted....
Miami/STL over 44
Some thoughts to consider for Miami/STL over 44. Here are STL last games in that dome at home.

Chicago 3-27 loss = 30 points
Arizona 13-34 loss = 47 points
Dallas win 34-14 = 48 points
Buffalo loss 14-31 = 45 points
NY Giants loss 13-41 = 54 points
The Rams have gone over 44 in 4 or their last 5 home games.

Granted Dallas, the Giants and Arizona could score points, but Miami's offense is still better than Buffalo or Chicago's, and the Rams should put up more than 13 or 14 points. Consider in thise games the rams have only contributed 3, 13, 34, 14, and 13 points. I think they get at least 17 today, and that they could get over 20. The Rams shouldn't have a run game and they should be passing all day ( good for overs). The Patriots didn't really have a run game last week and they put up 48.

Throw in the chance of a RET or INT TD????? Trent Green threw 0 tds and 4 int's last week against the Bears. I'd have to agree with you that a pick 6, or even an INT setting up a short field TD is very possible.

Ted Ginn jr. running one back is also possible, he is one of the fastest players in the NFL, and Donnie Avery and Dante Hall are no joke either.Just remember, these defenses give up an average of 53.6 points combined, and this game is in the fast track dome. Getting the line at 44 is worth a play IMO.

Carolina's last road games
@ Atlanta 28-45 loss, the line was 1
@ Oakland 17-6 win, the line was 10, I watched the ugly game
@ Tampa 3-27 loss, the line was 1, I watched the ass beating
@ minn 10-20 loss, the line was 3.5, I watched the game

I didn't realize it, but I faded Carolina @ Minn ( it was my sucker bet), faded them against my darling Tampa team, and played them at Oakland and am 3-0 on Carolina there.Carolina has NOT been impressive on the road. I'd expect this game to go more like the Minnesota but I really don't see them traveling to GB and getting the win. The Tampa game was Tampa's best game of the year, and Carolina's worst game of the year. 3-27 doesn't even really tell how not close that game was. I played Carolina in the Oakland game, and both teams honestly played bad. Jake had a number of turnovers, but Oakland was just worse. You got the feeling Oakland would never score again. Brian Billeck called the game and it was just ugly.

I just see a Carolina team that can't play on the road that is worse than their record, and a GB team that is better than 5-6. Aaron Rodgers has done better than I would have thought this year and getting back Ryan Grant should help.I am still not a huge fan of that Carolina line ( and their OC is a former lineman). Jordan Gross is a stud ( an underrated tackle by the way), Kalil has played well for his age, and Otah is going to be an awesome road grader run blocker, but I don't see that push from the guards. That line is still a year or 2 away with Khalil and Otah being younger.

Deadskins +4
The Giants should win this game, but this is the NFL and the better team doesn't always win. The Redskins had horrible showings against defenses that bring pressure. Jason Campbell is NOT better at all than average, and you take him out of his comfort zone and he fails every time. The Steelers game a few weeks ago, and the Giants game on opening night are picture perfect examples. I am not sure if people know nationally, but Sean Taylor was killed 1 year ago on Thursday and the Redskins have really been revisiting that. The team plans to retire his jersey into their wall of fame ( the players numbers around the stadium). This is a big deal and Clinton Portis in particular was a good friend of Taylors. It reminds me of when the Giants owner wellington mara died ( a good friend of Tiki Barber), and the Giants spanked Washington 35-0.

Not to get too crazy, but if you have ever read the book " the art of war", the author talks about not wanting to fight troops that are cornered, " fight or flight" or desperate. You always want that opposing army to have that flee and escape route.Washington lost a player, a friend, and a man, and they are also fighting for their playoff lives.

The Giantsa re 10-1 with 5 games remaining, and they honestly aren't going to win all 5. I think they could have trouble today, or with another desperate team next week ( Philly). As much as I hate Jason Campbell and the high school offense he runs on offense, the Washington defense is good. They should be able to slow down the Giants run game, and force a Plax-less Giants passing game beat those good corners they have.The O/U is pegged at 42, and I don't see a lot of points. The weather is cold, the field is grass, and we have 2 strong defenses here. Lower scoring = better for the team getting 4 points.Gimme the home dog and 4 and let's hope the G-men win by 3.

Baltimore -7
Baltimore is 7-4 and 8-3 ats
Cincy is 1-9-1 and 4-7 ats

Baltimore's average game is a 23.5- 17 point win
Cincy's average game is a 13.5- 25.1 point loss

- Baltimore wins their average game, by basically a TD and Cincinatti is NOT an average team, they are far worse.
- Cincy has lost their average game by 12, and Baltimore is BETTER than average. Even at home, cincy averages a 10 point loss.

The Ravens are a quiet good team. You don't see it because that offense is so not sexy. Joe Flacco, the running game etc. Tennesse is a very similar team but they have the better coach, the vet QB, and the better RB's. If Tennesse was playing at Cincy, do you think you would be able to get that line for 7? If Dallas or the Giants were at Cincy, do you think the line would be 7?I think Baltimore mops up the Bengals and the Steelers gave them a pretty good game plan as to how last week. Baltimore will play fierce defense, force a lot of punts, and score on short fields. Flacco isn't going to throw for 300, but with that defense he won't have to.In the Bengals/Philly game, there were 34 possessions, and 2 tds. I see the Ravens D shutting down the Bungles, but the Ravens win by more than 7.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Week 13

4-1 on Thanksgiving, let's keep it rolling.

Miami @ STL Over 44 ( 1 unit)
Green Bay -3 ( 1 unit)
Indy -5 ( 1 unit)
Baltimore -7 ( 1 unit)
Washington +4 ( 1 unit)

I may add Oakland, Pitt, or Jets/Broncos O 48 or all of them at 4:15 also depending on how the 1pm games go. GL

Miami @ STL O 44
These teams combined give up over 53 points on average. Miami and their Wildcat offense averages 114 per game on the ground, and Pennington is a good efficient dink or dunk quarterback. This may bode well for unders however they should move the ball, and the Rams give up an average of 162.6 per game on the ground for 5.5 per carry. There is no doubt in my mind that the Fins will be able to move the ball and score points. Pennington is too much of a vet, Ricky and Ronnie will run, and the Rams will give up their yards. Let's hope they move the ball and score 7's instead of 3's.

On the other side, the Miami Dolphins defense got shredded by Matt Cassell last week. They had no pass rush, and their DB's aren't very good quality which means they got torched for over 400 yards through the air. That was on grass too. Granted the Rams have had their problems, but I believe they can score 20 and push this over. STL averages 15.4 per game at home, but if they push that to 20, and Miami gets their 30, then there isn't a problem going over 44.

Miami has 3 road overs, and 1 road under, The rams have 3 home overs and 2 home unders.

Green Bay -3
Green Bay is better than 5-6, and Carolina is worse than 8-3. If for nothing else, the football gods tend to even those things out. Carolina has also had their problems on the road this year. Carolina is 2-3, while GB is 3-2 at home.

Carolina on the road.
16.8 pf, 24.4 against = average a 7.6 point loss

GB at home
27 pf, 18 pa = average a 9 point win

The Packers defense usually is pretty good against the pass ( expect Brees last week), but they get shredded on the ground. D. Williams is a good back, but I am still not a huge believer in that Carolina offensive line. I can see Jake getting frustrated and throwing against that GB secondary, or see Jake trying to mimic Brees last week. This game is on grass not turf, and Jake isn't Brees. I haven't been overly impressed with Carolina this year, and their schedule has helped them to that 8-3 record. For example they played like crap against Oakland a few weeks ago ( I won with Carolina), but wasn't impressed. I think this is a good spot to fade them, and take GB after that weak loss on MNF. Green Bay fought the titans hard weeks ago, and I think they win this game at home. Rodgers is usually pretty good about taking what he can get, and that might be all he needs to do. Green Bay also has better special teams.

Indy -5
Some people think this is a huge Indy lock because Derek Anderson is starting but the guy started almost every game for the Browns anyway. This is the same Cleveland team from 3 weeks ago, only with a minor Brady Quin stint in there.

The reason why I think Indy wins, although this is not a super lock is this. Look at their W/L margins the past 10 weeks. W by 3, W by 6, W by 4, W by 3, L by 10, L by 20, W by 28, W by 4, L by 2, W by 3.

So if you are picking Indy, you are asking them to win by 6 or more, and that is something that would have Won 1, Lost 8 and pushed 1 of their last 10 games. Indy should beat Cleveland, they are a 4-2 Veteran road team that can win on the road, but the spread Can be a factor in this game. They have been getting people back from injury, and won their last 4 games, all by 6 points or less.

This may all sound anti Indy, but I do think they have had one of the harder schedules, and that this could be a team on the rise. Indy and Dallas were my SB picks and it hasn't been pretty with injuries, but these are two dangerous teams IMO.

The biggest thread to just kill this bet, is Josh Cribbs vs a weak Indy special teams.

Baltimore -7
Baltimore is in the same mold as Tennessee this year, or Jacksonville last year, or any of the good older Ravens teams. People love sucking off Joe Flacco, and David Garrard when the defense is stout, the run game is working, and when you aren't asking them to do much, but if you ask them to throw and beat you over and over, it isn't going to happen. Flacco has done alright for a rookie, but let's be honest, he is wearing the game manager hat.

The cincy offense sucks, and now they are facing a force on defense. Everybody loves offensive teams to cover spreads, but there is such a thing as the defense induced blowout. I am not suggesting this will be a blow out, but Cincy is one of the worst teams in the league, and Baltimore is one of the best teams. To only give up 1 TD makes this good enough to play.

Washington +4
I do think the Giants are going to win this game, and by any token they should. The main reason why I am taking this is because all of the money is being bet on NYG, and the line only moved 1 point.

I do know the Sean Taylor was gunned down 1 year and 2 days ago, and the Redskins will be retiring him into their ring of fame Sunday at the game. Clinton Portis was a big friend of Sean Taylor and it should be a very emotional game. The Giants also will be without Plax ( who shot himself at a NY night club), and Brandon Jacobs may sit this one out too.

The Giants are 10-1 and aren't going to go 15-1 this year. They will probably actually either get upset this week @ Wash or next week against a fight or flight Philly team.

I will take the Skins +4 in a charged game that should be closer than people think. The Skins do have a defense, and this game shouldn't be very high scoring. I can't stand the Deadskins, so even if they lose 100-0 I won't feel bad.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

3rd turkey day game

I just took Philly -3 for 1 unit. If I lose, I lose a little bit of money, but if they lose, Reid and Mcnabb are losing their jobs. I like that.

Titans 1st half -7 (win)
Titans -11 ( win)
Titans 2nd half under ( win)
Seacocks +12 ( loss)
3-1, + 2 units

Goooooooo Beagles.

Turkey day game 2

Great way to start off the holiday

I'm getting paid for not working, and making money too!
Titans -7 first half ( 1 unit) WIN
Titans -11 game ( 1 unit ) WIN
Titans/Lions 2nd half Under 20 ( 1 unit ) WIN

3-0 +3 units


Seattle +12 ( 1 unit)
Dallas is the public play that takes the easy Titans money back. Watch out for the back door cover and funky NFL officiating.

Turkey day

The Lions have crapped out as expected.
Titans/Lions 2nd half under 20 ( 1 unit)

The Titans havea strong run game and line, and pride on defense. They won't give up a lot of points and garbage yards to the lions, and Chris Johnson and Lendale white will run this game out.

UNDER 20 ( 1 unit)

Turkey day

Week 13
Titans first half -7 ( 1 unit)
Titans -11 ( 1 unit)
Indy -5 ( 1 unit, had to jump on it now)

The books are making the Titans an easy play because people still don't realize how good they are. The books want the Titans to do well and cash in on nat tv. That is my theory and I am sticking with it. Some people honestly don't think my darling Titans are that good.

Monday, November 24, 2008

MNF Play


Green Bay -1 ( 1 unit)

I initially liked them at +2.5, this morning before work they were at +1, I was hoping Reggie Bush would be announced to play, and I could get them at +2, but now the line is -1 and I will still take it.

All it means is a 28-27 win is now a push, and a 28-27 loss is a loss instead of a push. Let's go Pack, to continue this profitable week!

Sunday, November 23, 2008


Winning week so far...

Indy +3 ( 1 unit), I love a live dog on national TV.


Arizona/Giants over 49 ( 1 unit)

I should have added more to Minny, the game went as advertised. I won my .5 units, and need Arizona to score not much to win that second unit.

The thing that pissed me off about the Miami game, was the horrible D PI call on the guy covering randy moss. Moss was holding his shoulder pad and extended his arm, pushing off, and they called it on the defender. The defender is allowed to hold his ground and go for the ball too. Moss was all over him, and THAT is what really turned the game.

I am adding arizona to double down on that 1 unit umatch. The Giants have been good road overs in Eli's career, and Kurt can always throw the ball, and is prone to the giants blitzing d turnover.

Week 12
Minnesota +2.5 ( .5 unit)
Tampa Bay -9 ( 1 unit)
Miami/NE Under 42.5 ( 1 unit)
U Match Bet: Arizona team will score -1 more than Jacksonville ( 1 unit)
Miami +1 ( 2.75 units)
Tease: Tampa -2.5, Washington +3 ( 4 units)
I also like GB on MNF

Miami -
Miami is 4-2 at home
NE is only 2-2 on the road

Both teams have similar PF, PA, Miami's defense is signifigantly better at home, and especially against the pass, giving up Under 175 yards per game and 6.2 per pass. I saw that with my own eyes against San Diego some weeks ago. I haven't really been on the suprise team Miami much this year, but the funny thing is that I did take them week 1 and lose.

The public loves NE at almost a 70% clip, and the oddsmakers OPENED the line at -3. It is very rare to see a line move 4 points, and cross 0 like that. Even small home favs of between -3 and 0 win, so I will certainly take the home dog here. I trust Las Vegas' finest much more than Joe Public. That isn't to say this is a lock or anything, but this game has a good probability.

My opinion is that the public bit into the ESPN " you can't beat bellicheck twice in one year" crap and ate it up. In the last meeting in NE...
Chad Pennington 17/20, 226 yards ----> only 3 incompletions???
Ronnie Brown 17 carries, 113 yards ----> 4 touchdowns
Ricky Williams 16 carries, 98 yards ----> backup RB with almost 100 yards

Matt Cassell had under 150 yards and NE's RB was held to 27 yards. That looks like one team completly dominated another. This game should be closer, but I'll stand with the home dog that the odds makers said should be favorite and I'll fade the public. I also took the under because we have two good run defenses, and dink and dunk quarterbacks in a game that could be windy with predicted 15-20+ MPH winds on a grassy field.

Tampa -
Tampa and the Titans have been two teams that I have rode for weeks. I actually faded the Titans in the 1 ATS game they lost ( they are 9-1). Tampa has an easy blue print this game...

The Lions defense is awful, and especially against the run. The Bucs should be able to break 20 points with any kind of offense at all. That Tampa 2 the Lions run is like Jeff Garcia playing against his 2nd team in practice. Dwayne White is out also, and the Lions will be win less playing on turkey day next week.. something to look ahead to.

Tampa on the other hand basically has 1 threat to watch out for, Calvin Johnson. Their defense is top 5, and they should shut the Lions down. The Bucs are easily 10 points better. My only worry is that they play this game like the Redskins did, and take it easy and let a backdoor cover happen.

Minnesota -
The Jags are not the Jags of 2007. People need to get that out of their minds. The 2008 Ravens are the 2007 Jaguars. You take away MJF and Fred Taylor and make David Garrard play quarterback, and they are no better than a mediocre team. The Jaguars defense is also not the same. Whether that be because of a weaker offense, the loss of Marcus Stroud, or teams figuring them out... Youyou also throw in the fact Jack Del Rio and Mike Peterson are having problems. That is one coach I wouldn't want to get into a fight/shouting match with.

Minnesota on the other hand has the best RB in the game, a strong O-line and will make this a physical game. Their defense is basically top 5, and they do stop the run. I like the fact that you make D. Garrard into a passer, he folds. Same thing with most game managers. The 2.5 points are just a bonus.

beted has this thing where you can mix and match pointspreads/team totals. I say the Arizona Cardinals -1 over Jax. That means if the Cards score 27 points in a losing effort to the Giants, and Jacksonville scores 20 points in a win over the Vikings, I sill win ( 27-20). Arizona just might get into a shoot out with the Giants. In general, the Giants are a good ATS play at home, and they are a good Over on the road. Arizona is always a good over play... Depending on how 1pm goes, I might take the Cards/Giants over as well.

Wash +3
Wash is the last leg of my Tampa tease. Even if Tampa does shit the bed, they should still beat the Lions by a FG. Taking that 2nd leg didn't have any "locks" out there. Wash should win this game. They have a strong defense, are 3-1 on the road, and should be able to put up enough points dinking and dunking the ball downfield. Big game for Jim Zorn.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Thursday night play

Thursday night play

Steelers -3 First Quarter play ( 1 unit)

Sunday, November 16, 2008


Eagles game ( lost 6 units) ( one of the worst games I have ever seen!)
Falcons/Broncos 2nd half over ( push)
Titans 2.5 ( won 1 unit)

I leaned Dallas ( win), Minny/Bucs under was my initial play ( win), Raiders/Fins under ( win), and Pittsburgh ( bullshit loss).

If Pittsburgh doesn't prove some games are fixed, I don't know what does.
- 13 times as many penalties called on Pitt!
- Bullshit holding call to negate Steelers TD at the end of the game ( that didn't effect outcome)
- The final play.

The final play
- So they end up calling back LT's lateral, but they let it stand ( no yellow flag live). They let the freaking play run UNTIL Pitt intercepts the next lateral and Troy P. scores. THEN for some odd reason they throw the flag, go to the replay booth and "review it".

Now you know for damn sure if the game ended there, the game would have just ended there, but they had to go ahead and "review it" for some odd reason.

In their review, they didn't even get the call right. A forward lateral is NOT A DEAD BALL, only if it hits the ground. The ball did NOT hit the ground, therefore the play stands as is ( and Pitt would decline the penalty and win 17-10 or kick the XP and win 18-10.

Did you see that stinking ref come out there and call that one back. He was shaking like some damn mafioso was telling him that you take the damn points off the board. That was a horrible call, the wrong call, and they didn't even interpret the rules right.

You know a call is outrageous when bob costas brings it up, and the refs admit it was the wrong call. If you know you were wrong, then do the right thing and change the outcome?

People are quit to bash the "fix talk", but we know for sure NBA games were fixed. When you see that Kings/Lakers game, you don't need to be an FBI agent to realize that game was fixed. You don't need to be a genius to see that point shaving yesterday. 13 times more penalties, and those 2 horrible calls at the end, showed the refs do everything they possible could do not let the Steelers cover.



Titans -2.5 ( 1 unit)

Back on my titans.



Falcons/Broncos 2nd half Over 24 ( 1 unit)
Eagles 2nd half ( 3 units)

I can't believe Donovan is being outplayed by a freaking Harvard geek Ryan Fitzpatrick. The thing that bothers me is after the 3 turnovers, or failed conversions, he seems like he doesn't give a crap. He starts all these games out 0-5, and doing nothing, and doesn't seem to care. It pisses me off when I'm on the Eagles.

Today's Play

Sunday's card
Philly -9 ( 3 units)

I would lay 4 or 5 units because Philly in my mind is still one of the best teams in the league, while Cincy is one of the worst. What is less than a TD and FG? Is the crappiest team 1.5 possessions worse than the better teams? If there weren't snow and 17mph winds in the forecast I would play it more.

Cincy's offense can't do anything, their coach stinks, their defense will get shredded by Dr. Donovan and the score should be something like 30-7. Who knows if it will or not, but this one shouldn't be close. Donovan can win ( and score) on the road, and Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn't been able to figure this NFL thing out with his Bungles.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Thusday night week 11 play

Week 11

New England Patriots -3 ( 1 unit) Good luck

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Reasons why Arizona didn't cover

- Giving up Opening kick off TD
- 4th and 1 from the 10 yard line, settle for 3 instead of TD
- The play/drive at the end of the first half where Sullivan gets his helmet knocked off and he picks up an additional 2 yards for first down. They end up converting 3rd down after 3rd down for a Vernon Davis TD. If SF punted, there is no doubt in my mind Warner would have scored at least 3 during the 2 min drill to have the lead at halftime.
- Batted pass not intercepted
- DRC dropping a relativly easy interception
- * Bogus Boldin pass INT call *, walking down the field to take a comanding 27-24 lead, but we have the NFL MNF Fix at it's finest.
* Next play, bogus off sides penalty to call back and Arizona TD*!!! God damn NFL
- Adrian Wilson later picks off a ball and returns it for a TD, but it really was offsides.

It just seems to me, that when the game was on the line, the Refs bail out the Cards to ensure that cover. If they really did think that Adrian Wilson was offsides during the first defensive TD, then why run the play and throw the flag after Arizona scores? Why can't arizona just have the big play, whey do they blow the whistle after the big first down? This game made me very mad to lose, and that is the reason why I very often play 1 unit games now. The NBA had refs caught for fixing games, and when the NFL pulls crap like the Tuck rule, or the Steelers super bowl, or this shit, it pisses me off!

Monday, November 10, 2008


Arizona -10 ( 1 unit)

Late add as Arizona tries to boast on national TV.

Sunday, November 09, 2008


week 10 recap
Car -2.5/ NO Over 43 ( win 2.5 units)
Baltimore pick em' ( win 1 unit)

Both teaser picks won ats on their own, Baltimore killed em and I was 2-0 + 3.5 untis. I was sick of having some games I liked more, some I liked less and more or less splitting my winnings. I was going to play
Titans Under ( won)
SD 3nd half ( lost)
Indy ( won), and of course the carolina over

I hate losing bets, but I also hate not winning stuff I didn't play. Oh well, this week made money and that is the name of the game.

I am also in an online contest with 4 picks , 1 of them being a "best bet" that counts twice.
Baltimore Best bet ( win)
saints over 49 ( win)
carolina 9.5 ( win)
arizona ( tbd)

The Ravens are the Jaguars of last year. H. Ngota needs to make the pro bowl with an INT at the one yard line, and hitting Rosenfelds when he was throwing a pass so Ray Lewis could get a real easy INT. Ngota dominated the inside of the line. It isn't that often that a DT is a player of the week or player of the game, but this guy dominated. I have rode Baltimore a couple weeks in a row, and if the books are going to underrate them I will ride them longer. Titans, Bucs, Ravens, and Eagles are probably my teams that I think are better than most people... although now the Titans secret is out at 9-0.

Car -
Jake Delhomme played like shit, which is always a possibility for a streaky guy like that, but I do think a lot of it was the Raiders D being better than I thought. I knew they were alright, but they played real well. The reason why I won anyway, is because the Raiders offense was just as bad and maybe worse as advertised. All 3 of their quarterbacks suck, the penalties, dropped balls, no pass protection. They need to blow it up and start over.

NO -
Matt Ryan played game manager well and did what he needed to be efficient and win, Drew Brees did everything he possibly could to try and win. His team didn't help him out with dropped balls, tipped balls etc. M. Colston had 3 or 4 dropped balls, and some of them were for 1st downs. Brees impressed the hell out of me in a loss. It was like Brady Quinn vs Jemarcus in the suger bowl. Sure you could say Ryan won " head to head", but Brees was by himself out there with no defense, dropped balls by the receivers etc. Matt Ryan more or less let the game come to him.

Week X

Week X
Week 9 recap
Jax -1/TB -2.5 Teaser ( 2 units) LOSS
GB + 4.5 (2 units) WIN
Ravens +2 ( 1 unit) WIN
Arizona Cards -3 ( 1 unit) WIN
Giants/Dallas U 43 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Pittsburgh + 3 ( 1 unit ) WIN
Week 9 Total = 4-2, + 2 units

Week X
Carolina -2.5, NO/Atl O 43 ( 2 unit teaser)
Ravens -1
Leans: Ten/Chi U, Arizona, I wouldn't mind getting good 2nd half lines for these games.

This play really needs no explanation. If I win my Ravens/ Halftime plays, I might just go and take Carolina ATS also. Jemarcus Russell might be the worst starting quarterback in the league, and that is even with first time starters and backups in there. He had 31 passing yards last week vs Atlanta, and they are a below average defense. The Raiders had more penalty yards than offensive yards in last week's first half. The Raiders are also going through a coaching change, and the dumping of Deangelo Hall.

I like Delhomme to Steve Smith this game. Carolina is one of the better non NFC East teams, and they have flown under the radar this year. The Raiders are 6-2 and a top 10 team in my book that is playing one of the worst teams in the league. The only thing that worries me is Carolina's past inconsistencies, but they have to beat the Faders.

Carolina PF 21.8, PA 15.9
Oakland PF 13.4, PA 25.1

Worst comes to worst Carolina wins by a FG, but I am pretty sure they win by double digits, road or not. Delhomme traditionally can play on the road and as a dog, but sometimes craps the bed at home or as a fav, I don't see how they mess this one up. Carolina is better at every aspect of this game.

First of all, this game is on a flat surface dome. New Orleans averages 28 points on turf, while Atlanta averages 31.3. Both defenses give up about 20 per game on turf.

New Orlean's last point totals, 37, 7, 34, 27, 31, 32, 24, 20
Atlanta's last point totals 24, 14, 22, 27, 9, 38, 9, 34

New Orleans has the best QB in the NFC, and one of the best offenses in the NFL, they will get their points. New Orleans also has a weak defense. Atlanta has actually had a pretty good offense, and a below average defense.

NO 403 yards, 315 passing, 88 rushing
ARL 361 yards, 197 passing, 163 rushing

New Orleans scores through the air, Atlanta has a very strong ground game. I do think they go over 50, but Over 43 looks real good to me. Worst comes to worst a 24-20 game would seem low scoring to me.

The Ravens cashed in last week, and I see them exploiting Houston this week. Before the season started I wasn't high on Baltimore at all. They have a difficult schedule and were led by a rookie QB. The Ravens sister team has to be Jacksonville who was about a 12-4 team last year. They won by their dominant defense, and the QB managed the games. This year, the Jags defense isn't as good, and people wonder where the over hyped David Garrard is. Winning games and managing them is totally different.

Joe Flacco is a rookie and isn't nearly as good as people give him credit for. If he were on say the Saints, they would be a 2-14 team, but on the Ravens were he makes a few plays here and there, it is fine.

The Ravens like to play conservative on offense, and win with their defense. That is pretty easy to do against a Houston team that can't stop the run, and has their #1 DT injured ( Okoye) and their stud MLB ( Ryans). Those are two of their best players, and they are only easier to exploit now. Houston gives up 27 PPG and 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. Baltimore gives up 17 PPG and 2.8 yards on the ground.

Sage Rosenfelds will start and is one of the better backups in the league, but he should have no ground game. Welcome to 3rd and 8 and the Ravens aggressive defense coming after you. Joe Flacco should have 3rd and 3's which are much easier to convert. The Ravens are last years 12-4 Jaguars. Notice the Jaguars are last years Ravens too.

This week isn't a big card, but I am trying to just pick winners.

Monday, November 03, 2008


Late ADD

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 ( 1 unit)

Week 9

Jax -1/TB -2.5 Teaser ( 2 units) LOSS
GB + 4.5 (2 units) WIN
Ravens +2 ( 1 unit) WIN
Arizona Cards -3 ( 1 unit) WIN
Giants/Dallas U 43 ( 1 unit) LOSS
3-2 + 1 unit

- Both of these games started out with the heavy home underdogs taking a lead. I will have to admit that I was quite shocked with both. Even so, for TB it was about the worst case scenario. They turned the ball over 4 times ( vs 1 for KC) and still won. That is a statistical anomaly that is about 3 standard deviations away from a normal game.

The Jags also did what they shouldn't do and that is get behind in a ball game. I laugh when people start mentioning David Garrad as a top 10 or good QB. Yes, the guy had nice stats last year with 2 great RB's and a defense MANAGING THE GAME, but if you are losing do you really want this guy mounting your come back? Sure, he had only 2 turnover last year but that was playing conservative low risk football due to the team around him. If he was say a KC Chief or Detroit Lion those teams would be just as miserable with him. The same thing you have seen with Garrard as of late, was true for Byron Leftwhich and even Jason Campbell now. The biggest difference between Garrard and Leftwhich is that Garrard is mobile and can move around, while Leftwhich is a giant pile of fat crybaby so you might as well go with Garrard. Yeah he is better and I did exaggerate some, but please, don't try and tell me Garrard is a top QB. Convert the damn 2 point conversion and BEAT THE WIN LESS TEAM. If the Jags win I am having a fat + 5 unit week right now.

GB was initially my favorite game of the week and I did think they would win outright. They fought, made it a game in a hostile Tennessee environment in what was probably the best game of the week. Maybe I should have played this game bigger? It did cancel out that damn teaser that was about the worst case scenario.

The old gamblers 101 rule did play true this time. Cleveland was an over 7 point underdog that won outright the previous week, and was favored this week. Historically that means there was a major perception shift ( it was also the Giants/Redskins games that did that), but Baltimore +2 was good value considering they won outright by 10.

I didn't even watch this game but it wasn't even close. The cards dominated an overrated STL team ( sort of like how Cle was overrated) from the last few weeks. I said that Warner shouldn't have any problems throwing for 300, and he threw for well over that. Kurt Warner = a quarterback, not some busted game manager. If the Cards are losing a game, they have a chance to actually win.

Giants/Dal U 43
I was scared to actually play the Giants -9 and thought that or Philly could have been a trap. Maybe I was just too scared of it all and needed to play those winnings. I just hate sucker bets and try and avoid them like the Plague. Why not just take other match ups like say Bal/Arizona and win those one instead of taking the big volume games?

I am glad the Giants pounded their hated rivals so it isn't a crime to lose 1 unit. This game really could have gone under if every score wasn't a TD, and that defensive TD where Plax and Eli were not on the same page hurt. Oh well, I did finish up this week and that is always a good thing. I may play Pitt tonight if not I will retire week nine + 1 unit.

Sunday, November 02, 2008



NY Giants/Dallas UNDER 43 ( 1 unit) Bodog

Week 9

Week 9
Jax -1/TB -2.5 Teaser ( 2 units)
GB + 4.5 (2 units)
Ravens +2 ( 1 unit)
Arizona Cards -3 ( 1 unit)

I also like Pitt on MNF, and might add some 4PM games and half time plays so stay tuned.

Last week I banked big on Washington winning/covering for a 5 unit play. I managed to squeak that one out for a big win, but I gave a lot of it back on 3 consecutive losses to only end up with 1.25 units. Winning money from Vegas is winning money and it is great to be positive, but I would have liked to finish up more.

The Bengals have been a fade for weeks. I think the Jags have underachieved so far this year and are underrated. Their defense is strong, and against Ryan Fitzpatrick they should have no problems shutting down the Bengals offense. On the other side of the ball, the Jags have a 2 headed monster running the ball. Taylor and MJD against a weak Marvin Lewis defense. I did tease this one down so Jax just has to win, but I'd guess that they cover the number as well. Running the ball helps close out victories, and the Jags shouldn't be as suspect to the back door cover at the end.

Similar principle to the Jags game. I find it difficult to see where the KC Chiefs are going to get points in this game. TB has a top 3 defense, and they are up against No Larry Johnson, or Jamal Charles, but a weak Kolby Smith, and No Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle, but 3rd string QB Tyler Thigpen.

I am generally against 3rd QB's I know nothing about, and especially when they won't have a running game and they are facing a top 3 defense. I think the point spread isn't ridiculous because 1) The Chiefs only lost by 4 last week, and 2) The game is in KC where they are traditionally much better.

I don't like how Jermaine Phillips is out for Tampa, and I am not sure they will score a ton of points themselves, but they SHOULD win the game and they should win by more than a FG. TB has an advantage at everything you want to look at: Coach, QB, RB, Offense, Defense, Special teams.

Green Bay Packers +4.5
I was riding Tennessee and Tampa all year, but I feel the Titans are prime for a loss. I faded them last week and it was a nice win and comeback on MNF, but the Packers will be a strong challenger as well. The Pack are a live dog getting 4.5, and I think they actually win this game.

More of the public is on the Titans, the Titans are coming off a big emotional win, and a short week, while the Pack is coming off of a bye. That alone messes with the match up a little bit in favor of GB.

Aaron Rodgers and Charles Woodson are a little banged up but will play, while Kyle Vandenbosh is in a similar situation for the Titans. I think those guys will all be fine and play at their high level.

You could argue the match up favors the Titans, with that strong run game against a GB team that has had some problems defending the run and the Titans with their top 3 or top 5 defense defending the Packers offense, but I look at those intangibles for this game to favor the Pack.

This should be one of the better games of the week, and especially to watch. Why not have a little wager on it and win some money?

Ravens +2
A good general rule for handicappers is to fade a team that is an underdog that wins outright, and is favored the next week. The Brownies were 7.5 point underdogs last week and beat the Jags, and now they are 2 point favorites over Cleveland.

Bal O 164.7 pass, 142.6 Run
Cle O 167.4 pass, 98.3 run

Baltimore's offense looks superior with the same passing numbers, but much better run numbers. I actually think Cleveland has a better O, they just weren't in good rythem before. Baltimore has been running out more leads and has better rushing stats.

Bal D 178.4 Pass, 64 Rush
Cle D 195 Pass, 141.6 Rush

Baltimore had the superior Offense on paper ( Although I like Cleveland's offense and their potential better), but there is no doubt Baltimore has a MUCH better defense. Baltimore gives up over 75 yards per game on the ground less! Only 64 rushing yards per game is fantastic, and I don't see a slow but powerful Jamal Lewis busting off huge runs this game. Cleveland on the other hand can't stop the run and that is exactly what Baltimore will try and do. They both have similar stats vs the pass, but Baltimore has a fantastic run D, and Cleveland has a bad one.

I don't like either Head Coach. Neither one deserved the job they got. Romeo has been nothing but excuses, bad defenses and bad calls, and Harbaugh Jr never should have got this job and he wreaks of being green. This game should be a low scoring game ( which favors the dog and defensive team) and I see Baltimore pulling it out.

Arizona -3
- This game is a coming home party for Kurt Warner.
- Arizona is very healthy, while the Rams are hurt with S. Jackson, L. Little, and Carriker.

Arizona PF 28.6, PA 24.4
Rams PF 16, PA 28.7

The Rams defense isn't very good when they are healthy, and they could be without their top pass rusher, their interior stud lineman, and secondary guys are banged up. There is no doubt in my mind Kurt Warner could light that team up for 300+ yards, while the Cards score 28+, but I am much less sure Bulger would do the same.

Zona 369.3
Rams 267.1

The Cardinals offense is MUCH more potent in yards, points, talent, whatever way you want to slice it. The Rams are NOT the greatest show on turf anymore, they are missing their RB, Bulger has been benched and is back. That offense just isn't what it once was.

Yards against
Zona 319.3
Rams 386.3

Now I am not going to sit here and argue the Cardinals have a GOOD defense, but it is certainly BETTER than that crap the Rams put out there. Granted, the Rams have been better these last few games giving up only 352 in their past 3 games, but that still isn't very good. The Cardinals have better offense, defense AND special teams.

I actually like Ken Wisenhunt the Cardinals coach better than Jim Hazlett too. I think this line is only -3, because the Rams have played better recently, with wins over Washington and Dallas, and keeping it close with New England, but overall Arizona is a better team. These guys are division rivals, and Arizona will have the better talent on the field, and the Rams could have the Hazlett effect wearing off. Go Cards.

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