Sunday, November 23, 2008

Week 12
Minnesota +2.5 ( .5 unit)
Tampa Bay -9 ( 1 unit)
Miami/NE Under 42.5 ( 1 unit)
U Match Bet: Arizona team will score -1 more than Jacksonville ( 1 unit)
Miami +1 ( 2.75 units)
Tease: Tampa -2.5, Washington +3 ( 4 units)
I also like GB on MNF

Miami -
Miami is 4-2 at home
NE is only 2-2 on the road

Both teams have similar PF, PA, Miami's defense is signifigantly better at home, and especially against the pass, giving up Under 175 yards per game and 6.2 per pass. I saw that with my own eyes against San Diego some weeks ago. I haven't really been on the suprise team Miami much this year, but the funny thing is that I did take them week 1 and lose.

The public loves NE at almost a 70% clip, and the oddsmakers OPENED the line at -3. It is very rare to see a line move 4 points, and cross 0 like that. Even small home favs of between -3 and 0 win, so I will certainly take the home dog here. I trust Las Vegas' finest much more than Joe Public. That isn't to say this is a lock or anything, but this game has a good probability.

My opinion is that the public bit into the ESPN " you can't beat bellicheck twice in one year" crap and ate it up. In the last meeting in NE...
Chad Pennington 17/20, 226 yards ----> only 3 incompletions???
Ronnie Brown 17 carries, 113 yards ----> 4 touchdowns
Ricky Williams 16 carries, 98 yards ----> backup RB with almost 100 yards

Matt Cassell had under 150 yards and NE's RB was held to 27 yards. That looks like one team completly dominated another. This game should be closer, but I'll stand with the home dog that the odds makers said should be favorite and I'll fade the public. I also took the under because we have two good run defenses, and dink and dunk quarterbacks in a game that could be windy with predicted 15-20+ MPH winds on a grassy field.

Tampa -
Tampa and the Titans have been two teams that I have rode for weeks. I actually faded the Titans in the 1 ATS game they lost ( they are 9-1). Tampa has an easy blue print this game...

The Lions defense is awful, and especially against the run. The Bucs should be able to break 20 points with any kind of offense at all. That Tampa 2 the Lions run is like Jeff Garcia playing against his 2nd team in practice. Dwayne White is out also, and the Lions will be win less playing on turkey day next week.. something to look ahead to.

Tampa on the other hand basically has 1 threat to watch out for, Calvin Johnson. Their defense is top 5, and they should shut the Lions down. The Bucs are easily 10 points better. My only worry is that they play this game like the Redskins did, and take it easy and let a backdoor cover happen.

Minnesota -
The Jags are not the Jags of 2007. People need to get that out of their minds. The 2008 Ravens are the 2007 Jaguars. You take away MJF and Fred Taylor and make David Garrard play quarterback, and they are no better than a mediocre team. The Jaguars defense is also not the same. Whether that be because of a weaker offense, the loss of Marcus Stroud, or teams figuring them out... Youyou also throw in the fact Jack Del Rio and Mike Peterson are having problems. That is one coach I wouldn't want to get into a fight/shouting match with.

Minnesota on the other hand has the best RB in the game, a strong O-line and will make this a physical game. Their defense is basically top 5, and they do stop the run. I like the fact that you make D. Garrard into a passer, he folds. Same thing with most game managers. The 2.5 points are just a bonus.

beted has this thing where you can mix and match pointspreads/team totals. I say the Arizona Cardinals -1 over Jax. That means if the Cards score 27 points in a losing effort to the Giants, and Jacksonville scores 20 points in a win over the Vikings, I sill win ( 27-20). Arizona just might get into a shoot out with the Giants. In general, the Giants are a good ATS play at home, and they are a good Over on the road. Arizona is always a good over play... Depending on how 1pm goes, I might take the Cards/Giants over as well.

Wash +3
Wash is the last leg of my Tampa tease. Even if Tampa does shit the bed, they should still beat the Lions by a FG. Taking that 2nd leg didn't have any "locks" out there. Wash should win this game. They have a strong defense, are 3-1 on the road, and should be able to put up enough points dinking and dunking the ball downfield. Big game for Jim Zorn.

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