Monday, October 27, 2008


Colts + 4

I am up 2.25 units for the week, and was going to just keep my winnings, but I added Indy +4. Keep in mind I have been riding the Titans, but I think they get their first loss tonight. GL

Sunday, October 26, 2008

NY Giants, building for the future

- The Giants are the defending SB champs
- The Giants are 6-1 and in first place in the NFC, they just beat one of the top AFC teams on the road, and they bullied the Redskins who are 2nd in their tough division.
- The Giants decided NOT to trade for TE Tony Gonzalez, that tells me they are still trying to build/maintain the team they have, and not trying to sacrafice this year and next for another title shot.
- The Giants basically lost a hall of fame RB 2 years ago, Hall of fame DE this year, and a pro bowl DE.
- The Giants are a deep team besides at QB.

QB: Eli Manning, #1 pick, SB MVP, starting to really " get it". Is in the top 10 QB's in the league and leading a good offense.
RB: Jacobs is a unique cloud of dust back that actually doesn't have a lot of miles. Ward is servicable, and Bradshaw is a great change of pace back that can also return kicks. He should really grow into a good 3rd down back.
Flanker: Burres is the big play guy. He does have the dropsies and he will quit on plays and have penalties, but a lot of teams don't have a guy like him that can draw the double or beat you.
SE: Toomer is a vet guy with hands that can lead the WR core
SE: Steve Smith is a quality WR with good hands that is ideal for 3rd downs. Sort of reminds me of a Bobby Engram type that will do what he is asked to do, and is a good compliment for a big play guy like Burress. Smith has very sure hands.
SE: Dom Hixon is a good return guy first, that can also sub in at WR. He might have a career, but is at worst a return guy.
Slot: Sinorice Moss is an ideal slot guy, has had injury problems, but I'd like for the Giants to start working him into the mix.
WR: Mario Manningham is a guy the Giants drafted at the end of the 3rd round, but he has 1st round talent. We will need a couple of years to evaluate him.
TE: Kevin Boss is probably the easiest place the Giants can draft and upgrade on offense. Boss isn't bad, but he isn't a big play guy and he probably won't make any pro bowls. He is a very good 2nd TE, but doesn't wow you as the starter.OL- Mebane from the Seahawks gave the best compliment to the Giants
O-Line. He said they are a bunch of robots. Too many people put too much stock into the size, weight, push a guy gets, but intelligence is a big thing. Can the O-line work together. Can they identify the blitz, can they pull together, can they zone block together etc. There are probably just as many sacks in the NFL that are due to blown protection schemes, as there are to guys getting beat. That means with a smart QB and Vet OL, the Giants have a huge advantage. The Steelers didn't sack Eli Manning at all today, and they LEAD the NFL in sacks.

DL - Justin Tuck is a pro bowl stud, Mathis Kiwkiuka has a bright future. He is a good pass rusher, might not be excellent against the run, but even with these ends the Giants are better off than most teams. Fred Robins has been playing at a pro bowl level but he is getting older. Alford and Coefield are alright, but I wouldn't mind the Giants adding a DT next year for rotation and to be ready if Robbins gets hurt.

LB - I thought the Giants could have drafted at LB last year, and they brought in a few and brought in Danny Clark. Their LB core isn't bad, but Antoinio Pierce isn't an athlete and they have some young guys around him. I wouldn't mind bringing in that super stud that can play the position for the next 10 years. Kiehl has played well and the Giants brought in a few LB's, but nothing is locked down IMO.

DB - Aaron Ross was a good pick, Webster seems to be playing better, Dockery is underrated, Thomas is a rookie. Phillips will be a good player, and I never really liked James Butler. The Giants have added 3 contributers in the secondary in the past 2 drafts, but they can still add more.

Gerry Reese has drafted well and the team looks good. Reese gets the benefit of the doubt for drafting Ross, Smith, Alford, Boss, Bradshaw not going nuts when Tiki and Luke Retired and left. Next year they will have a #1, and 2 # 2's. If there is a big play TE with Winslow like ability they can go after him to really round out that offense. I also wouldn't mind the big play guy at LB, in the secondary, or anther quality DT to mix in there with one of those 3 early picks.

The Giants could be good for a half decade like the Patriots after they won their first title in 2001. They also have a special teams coverage stud in Chase Blackburn. Cheers.


Giants -
- Chase blackburn with the tackle on the punt return
- Holding on M. Moore’s 32 yard run. Heath Miller held Justin tuck.
- James Butler with awesome INT ( rare because he stinks), but he fumbled it and the giants were fortunate enough to recover the ball.
- 4th and inches, Jacobs broke the plane of the end zone.
- Terrible call on the Kenny Phillips personal foul, he laid him out fair and square
- James Butler actually laid a nice hit on Washington and injured him.
- Madison Hedgecock, 2 dropped balls on check downs is unacceptable
- Refs call back 15 yard 1st down conversion on L. Woodley Kevin Boss flop holding, terrible call
- 4th and 6, eli with a perfect throw to ammani toomer, way to hold on to the ball.

Awesome game compared to the wash game. This really was the game of the week. Big Ben finished with 1 td, 4 int. The Game went pretty much in an expected fashion, but I was wrong on the score. Big Ben was expected to be pressured and I expected a game like the Eagles game and it was similar. The Giants looked good to win in Pittsburgh.

The Washington/ Lions game was terrible. The announcer with Aikman made some comment about how Jason Campbell was playing well after he was completing some of his check downs. Campbell did not play well at all. When he made that comment, there were 4 minutes left in the first half and the Deadskins had 3 points. How can the QB be playing well and have 3 points vs one of the worst teams I can remember?

On the opening drive the Redskins started throwing the ball. Probably because they wanted to throw the Lions and future opponents off to say that they could throw also. You don't want to be known as ALWAYS running on first downs, so they threw. It worked early on and the skins moved the ball. They get to the 1 and Campbell muffs the hand off and losses 2 yards, Portis losses on the next play, and they settle for 3. Later on Campbell fumbled at the 50, the Skins had a bad penalties called on a 3rd down stop, and Detroit took a 7-3 lead.

The Skins only had 3 points because of the Campbell botched hand off, and the Lions had 7 points because of the JC fumble and bad call on the 3rd down play.

So you think the Redskins are going to be aggressive right? They were still running draws on 3rd and longs, they were still throwing 5 yard passes on 3rd and 10. Jason Campbell does NOT impress me at all. He even fumbled late in the game to give Detroit a chance to win the game, but John Jansen recovered the ball.

The crowd totally wasn't into the game ( as they shouldn't have been). It was almost like some intramural game the way there was just no energy. The Redskins honestly could have lost the game, and before Campbell fumbled at the end, Zorn was laughing on the sidelines.

One of the other key things I saw, was on drive in I believe the 3rd Q, where the Lions had 3 or 4 dumb penalties in a row. That is the mark of a terrible football team. They let Washington off the hook. The skins won by 8, they didn't play well, they should have won by more, but I'll take it.

Week 8
Redskins 5 units, won 4.25 units
Tampa + 1, lost 1 unit
Pittsburgh -3, lost 1 unit
= + 2.25 units and a positive cash flow weekend.



Pitt -3 ( 1 unit even money)


Tampa + 1

Week 8
Wash -7 ( 5 units)
Tampa + 1 ( 1 unit)

I have rode Tampa for 5 or 6 straight weeks and haven't lost yet ( 1 push). Tampa has maybe the #1 defense in the NFL and they are facing a wounded Dallas team starting BJ. Dallas is not entitled to win because they are at home or they are the Cowboys. My Bucs will thump them hard and fight. I have other plays to add later so stay tuned.

Week 8

Week 8
Washington -7 ( bought hook, 5 units to win a little more than 4 units)

4-5-1 last week playing a lot of games. I was counting the Tampa Bay game as a win, but I got moosed again. I am glad I bought that hook to get them at 10 for the push. That would be a horrible game to get back doored on.

This is one of if not the biggest play for me this year. I did buy the hook because 7 is a heck of a lot better than 7.5 or 8. I am not going "all in" by any means, but I fully expect Washington to mop the floor with the Lions.

Wash 5-2
Det 0-6

Wash 20 PF, 18.3 PA
Det 16.2 PF, 31.2 PA

Washington running the ball
Wash 158.1 Rushing yards per game 4.7 per carry
Detroit defense gives up 167.5 yards per game 4.8 per carry

Translation: Washington is a strong running team with a good offensive line. Clinton Portis will be able to move the ball and keep the chains moving. I could see 150 yards easily, and he could breach 200. This will make Jason Campbell's life easier, and the Redskins will once again play low risk offense. Running the ball is also good for running out leads and covering. The main way the Redskins get upset would be turnvers, but having such a good running team against such a poor run D negates that.

Detroit running the ball
Washington defense only gives up 278.7 Yards per game
86.4 Rushing yards per game 3.9

Translation: Detroit won't get much on the ground against a tough washington D. That will put the ball in Dan Orlavsky's hand in his 3rd NFL start against a top 10, maybe top 5 defense. I like those odds.

Detroit offense has 263.7 yards per game
187 passing, 76 rushing

Low down: Sometimes winless teams try extra hard to win ( especially at home), but sometimes they are hopeless. Maybe Detroit gives up? Their QB makes his 3rd NFL start, they have a weak run game that won't help him, they have 1 weapon on offense, and they have maybe the worst defense in the NFL.

The reason why this spread isn't high is because Washington has been in close games. They have won close ones, and the ones they lost were close. This one could be their coming out party. Last year the beat the crap out of Detroit maybe 35-3 and the game wasn't even close. The Redskins have a similar team, and Detroit might be worse without Kitna, Roy Williams and Rodgers on Run D.

I still think Washington's D is underrated, and I really like them to cover the 7. Peace.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Week 7 recap

Week 7
Titans -9 = Win
SD + 1 = Loss
NYG -11 = Win
Pitt -9 = Win
Bal/Mia U = Loss
Minn/Chi 2nd H U = Loss
Dallas 2nd H -7 = Loss
Pitt 2nd H -4 = Win
Houston -11 = Loss ( I got moosed)
Tampa = Pending
4-5 pending Tampa

WINS ( better QB's, HC's, and D's win)
1) Titans cruise to an easy win
Kerry Collins > Brodie Croyle
Titans D > Chiefs D
Fisher > Herm
2) NYG won by more than the score indicated
Eli > JT Sullivan
Giants D > SF D
Couglin > Nolan
3) Pitt destroys the Bengals
Big Ben > Harvard
Steel Curtain > Bengals D
Tomlin > Marvin Lewis

1) Priscilla Rivers and his chargers lose another east coast game. Jauron is a better coach than Norv Turner.
2) Bal.Mia game hurts to lose that close under. I hate losing.
3) Minn/Chi, sometimes those real high scoring games last a half, but then the defenses come out in the second half and play. I did NOT watch this game but it was worth the risk for me. These teams don't score 80+ points on a regular basis.
4) I also faded another of the biggest suprises at halftime, and lost. It was a risk I was willing to take.
5) Houston was a moose job. There was another bad call where Will Demps was calling for unsportsmanlike conduct and hardly touched the guy. It was acting and sideline outrage that drew the flag. I wouldn't say this game was "fixed", those are some pretty big words to throw around, but Houston didn't give a shit that they were up by 3 TD's and let Detroit back in the game.

- Chase Blackburn opens the game with a tackle for a 2 yard loss. He is a very good backup and excellent special teams player who scored a TD in his first NFL start. He is actually more athletic than Pierce, but not as smart. He does have a motor though.
- Jeff Tollefson sacks O'Sullivan on the first 3rd down play. This first drive is already showing the depth of the Giants roster with these backups making plays.
- Plax drops a perfect throw on 3rd and 21 for a first down. People look at the stats and don't realize all of these hidden yards Eli losses.
- The 49ers get sacked on their 2nd 3rd down to end their second drive.
- Brandon Jacobs bowling people over like usual.
- Fred Robbins playing at a high pro bowl level. He has always been a good run stopper, but now he is starting to press the passers more and could make the pro bowl.
- Amani Toomer with a drop on a 9 yard pass on 1st and 10. WTF is up with his hands?
- SF has 3 penalties on one drive. Nate Clements losing his composure.
- Josh Morgan gets Aaron Ross on a nice double move. Morgan looks real athletic.
- Plax is just a lazy player. This is the guy that didn't practice at all last year, the guy that got suspended, yelled at his coach, quits on routes, and won't even come back to a ball that isn't perfectly thrown to him.
- Michael Johnson with 2 interceptions for the Giants. One led to an easy Giants FG, the other one took 7 off the board for SF.
- Blocked FG was huge for SF. Not only did it keep 3 points off the board for the Giants, they scored 7 for a 10 point turn around.
- Chase blackburn with a nice forced fumble! Saved the win/cover.
- I wish Eli had all of these pass INT plays count for his stats, where his man beats the defender, but the defense commits a penalty.

Titans -
Brodie Croyle can not stay healthy. He is a human bean pole and got injured in BOTH games he started. He is just too damn skinny to play the position with this pencil thin legs. He was injured on a totally clean play.
- The Titans ran this game with defense and special teams. KC scored 10 points, and I was right on. A defensive blowout where KC wouldn't score more than 10.

- Pretty similar to the Titans game, the analysis, the win, everything.

Bal/Miami Under -
- There were 2 main plays that killed the under. A Suggs pick 6 ( I thought a defensive score was very possible), and at the end of the game, the refs called a bogus penalty on Phillip Merling which gave Willis another shot at the TD. I would have pushed not won, but I hate losing.

Houston -
This game is what you call a moose job. Houston was winning 21-0 but started taking it easier and Matt Schlub had a key fumble in the red zone, and Houston gave up a 96 yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson. The worst part of this game was listening to JC Pearman call the game. He called "Jim" Hazlett the Rams head coach " Mike" Hazlett, and he doesn't understand the rules. The Lions challenged a first down late in the game and the Refs DID move the ball, but Houston still got the first down. JC said they were getting their timeout back but that is NOT the case. How can this idiot announce games and not even understand the rules, or know the players and coaches names. He is another joke announcer obsessed with mobility and stupid cliches.

Wash -
I watched the Deadskins. They remind me of the 04 Jaguars led by Byron Leftwhich. Good defense, good running game, boring robot quarterback who the coach doesn't trust. Campbells numbers might look ok, but that is because he is playing the most risk averse football out there. Check downs, WR screens, dump offs, and the ocassional TE drag. It makes me sick. The announcers were talking about how he hasn't had an interception yet this year.... yeah, it is pretty hard to throw a pick throwing WR screens. It reminds me of David Garrard last year with 2 interceptions for the whole year. Take away that defense and run game and he gets exposed. Jason Campbell doesn't call audibles or do anything but run the conservative plays his coach calls. I was NOT impressed.
- For Cleveland, their coach is a joke. I like Braylon Edwards personality a lot, but I saw 10 passes targted for him, and 2 were caught and 8 were not. About 6 or 7 were drops and maybe 1 or 2 was off target. The guy has big play ability, but stone hands. Edwards, TO, and PLax will lead the league in dropped balls.


Houston -11

Looks like the 1pm games might be a giant wash.


Minny/Chicago 2nd half Under 21 ( too many points already)
Dallas 2nd half -7 ( losing by too much)
Pittsburgh 2nd half -4 ( pushes the game total to 1 possession game)


Week 7

Week 7
SD + 1 ( The better team)
Tenn -9 ( best defense vs worst offense = recipe for nice win)
NYG -11
Pitt -9 ( Cincy has no offense, Steelers get back in track in a big way)
Bal/Mia UNDER 36
Tampa -10 ( I usually wait to post the late game, but get this at -10 now)

Other possibe adds- Dallas, Houston ( Detroit in the road fade), and good halftime plays. I already have 5 1pm plays so enjoy. There is a lot of chalk in my mouth, but I'd rather do it like this than with those heavy ML's.

SD +1 - San Diego is the better team and they are a dog. One point might not sound like a lot, but it is a key nuber. How many times do you see that 28-27, 24-34, 21-20 kind of game. San Diego is a little banged up, but so is Buffalo. Schobel is a work horse, and Roscoe Parrish is their secret weapon. A defensive team with a good KR and PR has an added bonus, but no Parrish hurts them. SD has been known to crap the bed in road games, especially 1pm EST games but I do like them to win this game. I still view them as one of the best teams in the AFC.

Tenn -9 - I have been riding the Titans and Bucs this year with their underrated defenses and good coaching. The Titans have the #1 defense in the league and they are matched up against the worst offense in the league. When people think of blowouts, they usually think of an awsome offense vs a crappy defense. There are defensive induced blowouts as well. Think about what happens when the Cheifs get the KR at the 20, go 3 and out, and then the Titans start their drives in good field position. Then they don't have to travel as far to score, and they can take more risk.

LJ isn't even playing. I know the Herm will try and shorten this game, and play ball control, and I do lean to the under as well, but I think the Titans don't give up more than 10 points in this game.

Pitt - Had a nice bye week. They have a top 3 defense in the league and they will be matched up against a Cincy offense that can't do anything right. Expect trash talking and penalties from Chad Ocho Stinko and Hoosh. The Bengals have had the worst or second worst offense in the league thus far, and Fitzpatrick is in for a train wreck with those exotic blitzes the Steelers run.

The Steelers offense hasn't played all that well, but they are matched up against a weak Cincy D. The Bengals D has actually played a little better this year, but that isn't saying much. The Steelers should route them.

NYG -11 - Last week the Giants Browns Over was one of my favorite games and I didn't even play it. It jumped out at me but I didn't play it. In general, the Giants road games are good over plays and their home games are good ATS plays. People are starting to catch on to the Giants but I do like this matchup. SF has an average 3-4 defense ( maybe a little worst), but they have a weak Mike Martz offense. Sullivan doesn't get it yet, and he gets sacked A LOT. Look for the Giants to put pressure on him and create turnovers. If they get a lead and make this 1 dimensional, it is over. SF is also a west coast team traveling east for a 1pm start... against the reigning champs.

Bal/Mia U 36 - In general I like playing Overs more than Unders ( who doesn't), but I do like this one. A few weeks ago I saw Miami's defense look pretty good at home vs SD. It wasn't their offense that won the game, but their defense. They have got a lot of attention for the wildcat formation they run, but the Ravens defense is legit. We have a dink and dunk QB and a run game, vs a rookie D1AA QB. Two good defenses, and two weaker offenses. O/U's aren't just about scoring in general... they are about the Redzone as well. I see more redzone points resulting in conservative 3's instead of 7's and having this game go under.

Tampa -10 - Charlie Frikkin Frye? Are you kidding me? The Bucs and Titans are teams I have been riding. I rode Tampa to 4 straigt ATS wins and I like them even more with Garcia at QB over Griese. Seattle is a mess with their QB situation, RB situation etc. They have already been blown out and I can't picture their offense putting up more than 10 points. Garcia will manage the game, and give the home fans a nice win. I like -10, more than the hook, so take it now.

Week 6 Recap

Week 6 Recap
Tampa -1 = WIN
Cincy/Jets = Loss ( moose)
Minny -13 = Loss ( win but not cover)
Washin -13.5 = Loss
Jax + 3.5 = WIN ( dog winning outright)
Chicago -3 = Loss
Indy -4 = Not posted but WIN
NYG 2nd half = LOSS

Total = 3-5, you can count me as 2-5 if you would like because Indy wasn't posted. Tampa was an easy win, the Jags won outright, the game that turned the tide and pissed me off was the Cincy/Jets game. There were 31 total points at halftime which made the O42 look real good, but the offenses went to sleep and put up only 9 more points. We also had a TD pass dropped in the end zone which pissed me off. I didn't see the Minny game but I hear Adrian Peterson had 2 real bad fumbles.

- Jason Campbell holds onto the ball too long and fumbled, go figure. Chris Cooley also had a key fumble. Washington was due for some bad luck, and their over confidence was killer. It isn't so much about confidence, as it was "letting the Rams hang around". The Rams were in the game the entire day, and Washington just had no urgency. It was like, " they are close to us, but they aren't really going to win". That is NOT the mark of a good football team.

- Jason Campbell really didn't have bad stats either. It just goes to show you the low risk/low reward style of ball he plays. His check downs and dump offs don't really hurt him, but they don't help as much as a downfield passing game either.

- I couldn't believe how easy it was for Washington to run the ball in the 3rd and 4th Q, yet they lost. It seemed like Portis was busting 7 yards per carry, teams that do that in the 3rd and 4th should NOT lose.

It was a bad play on my part. Historically 0-4 teams off a bye cover the spread at a very good rate. I went against the odds and lost.

- I didn't take the Giants in the game -9, but I did take them in the second half of the game to win ( another loss). This was a bad spot for the Giants. The Browns offense has done nothing ( and tried to do nothing), and they had their backs against the wall. It was a dog, on the road, with under performing Edwards and Anderson. Bad spot for the Giants. The better team didn't win, but it was a tough spot for the G-men. In the preseason the Giant starters crushed them something like 30-3 in the first half, but the Browns had their backs against the wall and won outright.

- Jermaine Phillips #23 is one of the top safeties in the game. He has made a pro bowl, but this guy is a heavy hitter and still under most people's radar.
- Gaines Adams #90, is not only a good pass rusher, but this guy drops into coverage too. The Bucs were lucky to get their hands on this guy.
- Tampa played about as good as a game as you could play. 3 picks, awsome special teams, and good offense. Tampa opened up the offense a little by throwing to their athletic TE Alex Smith and getting some big plays. The Bucs might start to be getting on people's radar now.

Monday, October 13, 2008



NYG -6.5 2nd half... 1 unit

The over was one of my favorite plays, but I chickend out last minute.

Saturday, October 11, 2008


Chicago -3

I decided to go with it. ATLANTA is the 3-3 team, not the Chicago that beat Indy in Indy, Philly and other quality teams.

This game COULD be a sucker bet, but with only 65% of the bets, I think people still don't think the Bears are any good.

Week 6

Week 5 was a great week at 6-1-1 and I even won my leans. If I was down I probably would have played Pitt, but I just kept my winnings. Pitt can stop the run, and making David Garrard play QB instead of game manager changes that Jax team. Big Ben is the better QB and they won as dogs.

Week 6 ( all 1 unit plays)
Tampa -1
Cincy/Jets O42
Minny -13
Wash -13.5
Jax +3.5
I'd also like to get Philly and Dallas at better numbers ( maybe 2nd half pointspreads). I am also leaning Indy -4, and Chicago -2.5.

Tampa -
I have rode Tampa 3 weeks in a row now. The dog winning outright in Chicago, the 9 point GB win and the cover in Denver last week.

Tampa has a VERY good defense, Week 1 was a no play for me, but they could have easily beat the Saints in NO. There was a horrible non-holding call where Gaines Adams was abused, and Ragina Bush rushed in for a TD. Horribe 4th Q call that killed them.

People love Carolin as a road dog, because they have been good historically, but let's look at their splits.
Car- 18 pf, 22 pa on the road
TB - 27 pf, 15 pa at home

I don't have the stats in front of me, but small home Favs have done very well the past 2 years. Tampa opened -3, but Carolina backers bet it down to -1 ( at bodog). Carolina has beat 2 weak football teams, while Tampa has had some tougher tests @ Chi, GB, and @ Den. They could very well be a 4-1 team right now and if Carolina wins this game, they have a nice lead on the division. Look for the Bucs to throw the kitchen sink at em'.

I actually like Garcia starting over Griese. If Garcia played the whole game in Denver, I think Tampa would have won. Griese is a decent, solid vet who will give a chance to win, but Garcia is better. He isn't as much a game manager, he will take chances and brings life to that offense. I saw him yelling in the huddle. He wants to win. He has moxy.

Carolina has both tackles injured. Road grader Jeff Otah, and maybe the most underrated LT in the game, Jordan Gross. They are a fine tackle combo and they are hurt. This isn't good vs the solid defense.

More than 60% of the time, Tampa wins this game.

Cincy/Jets O 42 -
There are certain players that are good for overs in case you haven't noticed. Favre, Warner and Romo are 3 of them. They could throw a long TD pass, or a pick 6. These guys are looking to throw the ball downfield, where as the Trent Edwards, Jason Campbells, and Damon Huards of the world are looking to dump the ball off for a 3 yard gain.

Does the QB look downfield for a long or intermediate throw first, or does he look to check it down first? Byron Leftwhich has always been a check down guy, Brett Favre has always looked to make something happen. Warner might look downfield to long until he is sacked/fumbles it, but SOMETHING is going to happen. That is GREAT for overs.

I have been riding Cincy overs the past few weeks. Their offense is underrated. The line dropped because Palmer isn't playing, but I still think Fitz can do something ( he is a smart Harvard guy). The Bengals also have a chance to get nice garbage yards when the Jets are winning. The Jets line is too high for me, but I still like the over here. The Bungles defense sucks, Dexter Jackson is hurt, and Favre is an "overs guy". The Jets offense is probably properly valued for overs, but the Bengals are underrated. It is a fair play and hits over 60% of the time.

Minny -
When I was in high school we had a very talented football team. Our coach played in the NFL, but he wasn't very good. Our team had numerous college players ( including myself), my buddy was drafted, and another friend found his way into an NFL camp. Our team had a lot of talent, but we would lose to teams as good or better than us. We would crush weaker teams, but find a way to lose close games to equal teams.

The reason I bring that up is because I can see Minnesota crushing Detroit. Detroit is a very bad football team. I faded them last week with Chicago and noted that the line was 3.5 but that Lions lines could get out of hand. If the Lions get crushed again, their lines could get comical.

The Lions have a VERY bad defense, and they are weak against the run. The Lions give up an average of 180 yards per game on the ground for 5 yard per carry. On the road, they have given up 250 per game for 6.2 per carry. They have been crapped on every game, and NOW they face the purple Jesus, the best RB they have seen. Peterson should run wild over them. They KNOW it is coming but they still can't stop it. Once the Vikings get a lead, the game should be over. Running closes out games, and Peterson must be licking his chops.

If that isn't enough for you, Detroits 2 receivers are questionable and Kitna hasn't practiced and should be out. George Foster at RT is hurt as well. I think Kitna isn't that bad of a player. In fact, I'd say he is an above average QB, but he is in a horrible situation with that Lions team. Having Orlavsky or Stanton in there is a recipe for disaster. Ideally, you want those guys to manage the game, but they probably won't have that luxary.

The Vikings keep the tradition of my HS, and blow out a team they are better than.

Wash -13.5
Washington has similar logic to Minnesota. The Rams are a team in dissary, but you don't have to kill a team to win by 2 TDs. I think the Rams have little chance to win this game, maybe they cover, but Washington is not losing this softball in front of the home crowd. There is a lot of excitement in washington. They haven't been a good team in a decade and people are buying in.

I still don't like Washington's low risk offense, but there defense is for real. Not only have they played well, but they have done so against the better offenses in the NFL... NYG, Dallas, Philly, Arizona and the Saints.

Jason Leftwhich is a heavily overrated game manager at this point, but the Redskins defense is underrated. My first instinct for this game was to look at the under, but I can see Portis and the run game do their job. The Redskins are good at running the ball, and they play good defense. That is plenty enough to win 28-14 or better. I think the Rams will have trouble scoring points and the Redskins won't.

Jax -
This matchup sort of reminds me of the Tampa/Denver game. Good defense vs good offense. Reggie Nelson is out and that makes Jax open to the deep ball, but I'm not worried.

Jacksonville has the strong run game that Tampa doesn't have. They can attack Denver's run defense with Taylor and MJD. Jax can also look at the tape and see what Tampa did to hold Denver to 16 points.

Culter has some of his weapons hurt, with Sheffler and Royal. The odds makers have this as a higher scoring game than I would think, but both of these teams put up more points than I would have expected coming into this game.

This should be another fun game to watch and I do believe Jax is a dog that has a good chance to win outright. They could lose by a FG, or 1 point, but it is worth the risk.

The final factor for me in this game, is if I came to you before the season, and tol you I'd give you Jax and 3.5 points, you would have certainly took it. Jax has under performed a little this year, but take the Jags and the value. I have faded Denver vs KC in the sucker bet a few weeks ago, and I faded them with Tampa last week. The public is obsessed with offense and the Broncos are still a little overvalued in this spot.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Week 5 recap

Week 5
SD Super chargers -7 (105) 2 units LOSS
Hennesse Titans -2.5 1 unit WIN
Chi-town Bears -3 ( bought hook) 1 unit WIN
Indy -4 ( 1 unit) PUSH
Dallas/Cincy Over 46 ( 1 unit) WIN
Arizona -2 ( 1 unit) WIN
SD 2nd half -6 ( 1 unit) WIN
Tampa Bay +4 ( 1 unit) WIN
6-1-1 + 4 units - Excellent week !!!!!

- I really liked the 4 PM games and went 3-0 and didn't take NE. I went with a lot of games for small units this week and won or pushed every single game EXCEPT my 2 unit SD play. Here is some of what I gathered from the games...

SD played a weak 1st half and I took them the second half because they couldn't have possibly played any worse. I actually have to give credit to Miami, because that defense came out to play but LT was still hurt and SD didn't play their best game.
- One of the best plays of the game was a forced fumble AND RECOVERY, by Jacob Hester. He hit the ball out of the Fin's hand and recovered it in good field position.
- The game was lost when on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line in the 4th Quarter, Norv decided to go for it ( I agreed) and they handed it to LT and he was stuffed. He just didn't have that burst and the Fins won.

- I said that the low scoring Browns/Bengals game I watched last week was one of the worst NFL games I have ever seen, but this was a VERY exciting low scoring game. Both teams were hitting each other hard, and those are two of the best defenses in the NFL. When you watch a game like this, you sometimes wonder how either team scores ANY points.
- There was a horrible call early in the game when both teams were fighting, but a penalty was ONLY called on I believe Cortland Finegan. It ended up resulting in a Ravens FG. Finnegan was trash talking the entire game ( with Derrick Mason) and drew a penalty. Keith Bullock went up to him and pushed him because his lack of self control was costing his team.
- Kerry Collins drove his team down 80 yards late in the 4th to win the game, while Joe Flacco threw a pick on the rebuttal to win the game. The VET QB beats the rookie, and my underrated Titans win again.

NY Giants
- I didn't play ghe Giants, but I was looking to tease them with another game. Stupid me, I won everything except the Chargers. Eli Manning hit Dom Hixon on a few long pass plays. Manning was throwing the ball down field and it was working.
- Brandon Jacobs was ripping had something like 14 caries for 130 something yards late in the game. The Giants offense dominated... they scored points on their first 6 possessions... long passes and 10 yard Brandon Jacobs runs.
- Kevin Dockery had an awsome 45 yard INT return.
- B. Mebane said the Giants offensive line is like a bunch of "robots". They all work together so well in their communication and reads etc. That is one of the best compliments out there and exactly why the Giants O-line is so good. It isn't because they have a line full of 1st round draft picks that maul the guy in front of them, it is because they work well together.. they have played together, they have a good head coach, a good quarterback, and Gilbride coaches that line well. The Colts and Pats have had the best o-lines the past few years also, because of their quarterbacks... The QB points out blitzes and is so important to his line. Most people will never realize this. Eli Manning isn't at super star yet, but he is excellent at reading defenses in pre-snap reads as far as the pass rush is concerned.
- Amad Bradshaw had an awsome run in the 4th quarter. Bradshaw, David Carr, Mario Manningham, Sinorce Moss and other Giants back ups were still kicking the teeth in of the Seahawks. It was nice to see Sinorice Moss get worked in and have 2 Tds.

- Denver/TB
- Jay Cutler is a man, and ran over Rhonde Barber on a run near the sidelines for a key 11 yard run. This is the same guy that benched 225 23 times and ran a 4.6 and has a laser rocket arm.
- Gaines Adams drops an easy int. He has played really well thus far and might not have the super stats to show it, but he has forced opponents into penalties.
- Jeff Garcia fills in and throws an early INT to Marcus Thomas near the goal line, but he fumbles it and the Bucs recover for a new set of downs.
- TB's rookie PR returner Jackson had a horrible PR where he didn't field the ball and let it bounce behind him. He cost his team about 15 yards worth of field position in a low scoring defensive game.
- Jermey Stevens had a key drop on a 3rd down that would have resulted in a 1st down.
- Garcia drives his team down the field on a late scoring drive and throws a TD pass to Ike HIlliard where he started running towards the goal line but then threw to Hillard as defenders committed.
- Even though Denver won this game, the low scoring tempo was dictated by Tampa. Tampa and the Titans have been two quality teams that the public has virtually ignored. I'd bet they start to take notice pretty soon.

- I've rode Cincy overs 3 weeks in a row now. 5 unit winner with the Giants, 3 unit loser last week, and 1 unit winner this week. Their defense actually played better, but I think a lot of that was Romo not taking them very seriously.
- Greg Ellis intercepts a tipped pass on literally the 1st play of the game. Dallas settles for an early FG.
- Felix Jones has a nasty TD run on 4th and 4. If Dallas is running the ball on 4th and 4, that should tell you something. There was an awsome block by ( I think it was Kyle Kosier).
- Cincy had a TD called back on a TJ Hooshmanzada holding penalty that had nothing to do with the run. That kind of crap pisses me off as it cost me 4 points.
- Chris Perry dropped 2 Carson Palmer passes that would have been touchdowns, and he fumbled for his 5th time in 5 games. I wonder how long before he is replaced.
- Romo has a pick late in the game to Keith Rivers and he looked like crap. Good teams don't play down to their competition like Dallas did today.
- Patrick Crayton catches a deflected pass for the game winning TD. How Brett Favre-like was that for Romo?

Indy- Houston
- I called this game my anti-sucker bet as everybody on earth bet on the Colts, but I thought they would win. This game caused me a lot of stress. I SHOULD HAVE bet on them -3.5, but I got them at -4 once Sage was deemed to play. So I should have won, but I really should have lost. Sage blew the game for Houston. Usually I will bitch about losing games I should have won, but Houston outplayed Indy except for complete shitting the bed at the end. Even though I should have won on paper with a -3.5, I will gladly take the push.



Tampa +4 ( 1 unit)



SD 2nd half -6 ( 1 unit)

The chargers are unlikely to win this game now being down 14 and all, but at least compete. This team played like crap in the first half of the Raiders game last week, and I'd expect for them to play better in the second half.

I am also kicking myself for not playing the Giants.... 27-6.


Week 5
SD Super chargers -7 (105) 2 units
Hennesse Titans -2.5 1 unit
Chi-town Bears -3 ( bought hook) 1 unit
Indy -4 ( 1 unit)
Dallas/Cincy Over 46 ( 1 unit)
Arizona -2 ( 1 unit)

Decided not to wait on some of the later games. Be back for Adds and possibly Tampa +4.

Week 5 sucker bet

Congrats to everybody who rode the KC Cheifs with me last week. Not only were they a 10 point underdog, but they won outright!

Congrats to everybody who rode the Minny Vikings with me two weeks ago and watched Jake Delhome boy throw a shit fit and lose the game. Classic sucker bet.

This week the books have taken MAJOR action on the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams were in very close games with the Jags... the game is @ Houston, and the Texans are coming off a bye. The books played the "matador" role this week, and took dollars after dollar coming in on the colts. That tells me they are SURE the Texans will provide more of a fight... Steve Slayton will rush for 100, the Texans highly touted D-Lineman will punish the Colts make shift O-Line....


Just because all that money is coming in on the Colts, doesn't mean they won't lose. Matt SNOB is not playing, and sage rosenfelds is one of the better backups in the league, but the Colts win... and the Bookies already started moving this line. It is 4, and 4.5, and I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up -6 somewhere. The Colts are the anti-sucker bet fake'em out.

Play the Colts and get them still at -4.

Week 5

Week 5
SD Super chargers -7 (105) 2 units
Hennesse Titans -2.5 1 unit
Chi-town Bears -3 ( bought hook) 1 unit
Colts -4 1 unit

Patriots -3.5
Cardinals Pick'em
Dallas/Cincy O 44.5
Tampa Bay +3.5
Steelers + 4

- SD is one of the best teams in the league, the Chargers are one of the worst teams in the league. SD hasn't played as good as they should have this year, but they have the talent. People are keeping this line down because Miami had a bye, and they crushed the Patriots. One of the best teams vs one of the worst teams is worth more than 1 possession.
- I have been close to playing the Titans ( and Tampa) on all those wins, but have laid off. I will take the Titans in a tough game in Baltimore this week. People expect Baltimore to bounce back after a close MNF loss, but I don't see it. I think the Bills are much more likely to suffer their first loss this week as opposed to the Titans. Both defenses in this game are good, but I'd rather trust the 15 year vet who took a team to the SB than the 1AA QB who is a game manager at best.
- The Bears defenses is back, and the Lions have a historically bad defense. The Bears can run a low risk offense and be successful, while Kitna and the lions will have a tougher time. The Lions are giving up over 200 ypg on the ground, and rookie Matt Forte has to be licking his chops. This is an ideal matchup for the Bears. The oddsmakers moved the line to -3.5, which is generous, but once people realize how crappy the Lions are, it will get worse. The Lions did hang with a decent GB team a few weeks ago ( closer than the score indicated), but the Bears win this game and they should cover.

I'd like to see how the games start to play out and I will certainly add plays, so stay posted.


Some notes from past weeks
- Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison had some key drops. Harrison dropped what could have been an easy TD ( 3 drops), and Wayne had an unusual drop on a 12 yard pass on 2nd and 10.
- Fred Taylor has probably the best run of the year, A 34 yard cutback with broken tackles and his QB blocking. It was certainly the most exciting.
- Late in the 4th Q, the Jags had 15 first downs to the Colts 1, the Jags had the ball almost the entire 2nd half, and they ran, and threw conservative passes. When one team runs 6 plays, and the other one runs 38, you are asking for trouble. The Colts didn't run their 7th play until 2:27 left in the 4th quarter.
- The Jags had two 100 yard rushers ( Taylor,Jones Drew), it is bad for a defense to give up a 100 yard rusher, nevermind two.
- The Colts also ran a horrible 2 min D which lost them the game. Horrible penalty on a failed 4th & 1 play. Not only did Dungy's defense get gashed the entire 2nd half, they shot themselves in the foot at the end of the game. It was sad, Dungy is not even an average coach, and I am sick of people hyping him up. It's not like the Jags were running some fancy, high powered offense, they RAN RIGHT AT THE COLTS on almost every single play of the 2nd half! Dungy sucks.

Chiefs/Broncos ( sucker bet)
- LJ starts the game off with a nice 65 yard run. The Cheifs came out to play.
- Chiefs recover a fumble early, key play.
- Boone had an awsome catch on a 3rd down.
- Herm settled for 2 FG's early, could haunt the Chiefs later.
- Brandon Marshall with a fumble.

- I lost this game, Warner came out ugly early, but the Cards are great at picking up garbage yards and I won my money back on the second half play.

- This was probably the worst NFL game I have ever seen. I thought we could have easily saw Brady Quinn step in as DA looked bad, and Ryan Fitzpatrick looked bad too. It wasn't that they were playing against good defenses, they just stunk, the defenses stunk, everything stunk. I can't believe I even watched this game. The coaching, QB's, defenses all stunk. Jamal Lewis is a decent player, but when you have Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow against an injured Bengals secondary, you exploit it.

Week 5

Week 5

SD Super chargers -7 (105) 2 units
Hennesse Titans -2.5 1 unit
Chi-town Bears -3 ( bought hook) 1 unit

I like a lot of the 4 pm games, and I am not opposed to adding 2nd half plays. I'd like to see if I can get a better deal on the Colts than -3.5.

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