Sunday, October 19, 2008

Week 7

Week 7
SD + 1 ( The better team)
Tenn -9 ( best defense vs worst offense = recipe for nice win)
NYG -11
Pitt -9 ( Cincy has no offense, Steelers get back in track in a big way)
Bal/Mia UNDER 36
Tampa -10 ( I usually wait to post the late game, but get this at -10 now)

Other possibe adds- Dallas, Houston ( Detroit in the road fade), and good halftime plays. I already have 5 1pm plays so enjoy. There is a lot of chalk in my mouth, but I'd rather do it like this than with those heavy ML's.

SD +1 - San Diego is the better team and they are a dog. One point might not sound like a lot, but it is a key nuber. How many times do you see that 28-27, 24-34, 21-20 kind of game. San Diego is a little banged up, but so is Buffalo. Schobel is a work horse, and Roscoe Parrish is their secret weapon. A defensive team with a good KR and PR has an added bonus, but no Parrish hurts them. SD has been known to crap the bed in road games, especially 1pm EST games but I do like them to win this game. I still view them as one of the best teams in the AFC.

Tenn -9 - I have been riding the Titans and Bucs this year with their underrated defenses and good coaching. The Titans have the #1 defense in the league and they are matched up against the worst offense in the league. When people think of blowouts, they usually think of an awsome offense vs a crappy defense. There are defensive induced blowouts as well. Think about what happens when the Cheifs get the KR at the 20, go 3 and out, and then the Titans start their drives in good field position. Then they don't have to travel as far to score, and they can take more risk.

LJ isn't even playing. I know the Herm will try and shorten this game, and play ball control, and I do lean to the under as well, but I think the Titans don't give up more than 10 points in this game.

Pitt - Had a nice bye week. They have a top 3 defense in the league and they will be matched up against a Cincy offense that can't do anything right. Expect trash talking and penalties from Chad Ocho Stinko and Hoosh. The Bengals have had the worst or second worst offense in the league thus far, and Fitzpatrick is in for a train wreck with those exotic blitzes the Steelers run.

The Steelers offense hasn't played all that well, but they are matched up against a weak Cincy D. The Bengals D has actually played a little better this year, but that isn't saying much. The Steelers should route them.

NYG -11 - Last week the Giants Browns Over was one of my favorite games and I didn't even play it. It jumped out at me but I didn't play it. In general, the Giants road games are good over plays and their home games are good ATS plays. People are starting to catch on to the Giants but I do like this matchup. SF has an average 3-4 defense ( maybe a little worst), but they have a weak Mike Martz offense. Sullivan doesn't get it yet, and he gets sacked A LOT. Look for the Giants to put pressure on him and create turnovers. If they get a lead and make this 1 dimensional, it is over. SF is also a west coast team traveling east for a 1pm start... against the reigning champs.

Bal/Mia U 36 - In general I like playing Overs more than Unders ( who doesn't), but I do like this one. A few weeks ago I saw Miami's defense look pretty good at home vs SD. It wasn't their offense that won the game, but their defense. They have got a lot of attention for the wildcat formation they run, but the Ravens defense is legit. We have a dink and dunk QB and a run game, vs a rookie D1AA QB. Two good defenses, and two weaker offenses. O/U's aren't just about scoring in general... they are about the Redzone as well. I see more redzone points resulting in conservative 3's instead of 7's and having this game go under.

Tampa -10 - Charlie Frikkin Frye? Are you kidding me? The Bucs and Titans are teams I have been riding. I rode Tampa to 4 straigt ATS wins and I like them even more with Garcia at QB over Griese. Seattle is a mess with their QB situation, RB situation etc. They have already been blown out and I can't picture their offense putting up more than 10 points. Garcia will manage the game, and give the home fans a nice win. I like -10, more than the hook, so take it now.

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]