Sunday, October 05, 2008

Week 5

Week 5
SD Super chargers -7 (105) 2 units
Hennesse Titans -2.5 1 unit
Chi-town Bears -3 ( bought hook) 1 unit
Colts -4 1 unit

Patriots -3.5
Cardinals Pick'em
Dallas/Cincy O 44.5
Tampa Bay +3.5
Steelers + 4

- SD is one of the best teams in the league, the Chargers are one of the worst teams in the league. SD hasn't played as good as they should have this year, but they have the talent. People are keeping this line down because Miami had a bye, and they crushed the Patriots. One of the best teams vs one of the worst teams is worth more than 1 possession.
- I have been close to playing the Titans ( and Tampa) on all those wins, but have laid off. I will take the Titans in a tough game in Baltimore this week. People expect Baltimore to bounce back after a close MNF loss, but I don't see it. I think the Bills are much more likely to suffer their first loss this week as opposed to the Titans. Both defenses in this game are good, but I'd rather trust the 15 year vet who took a team to the SB than the 1AA QB who is a game manager at best.
- The Bears defenses is back, and the Lions have a historically bad defense. The Bears can run a low risk offense and be successful, while Kitna and the lions will have a tougher time. The Lions are giving up over 200 ypg on the ground, and rookie Matt Forte has to be licking his chops. This is an ideal matchup for the Bears. The oddsmakers moved the line to -3.5, which is generous, but once people realize how crappy the Lions are, it will get worse. The Lions did hang with a decent GB team a few weeks ago ( closer than the score indicated), but the Bears win this game and they should cover.

I'd like to see how the games start to play out and I will certainly add plays, so stay posted.

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