Sunday, October 26, 2008

Week 8

Week 8
Washington -7 ( bought hook, 5 units to win a little more than 4 units)

4-5-1 last week playing a lot of games. I was counting the Tampa Bay game as a win, but I got moosed again. I am glad I bought that hook to get them at 10 for the push. That would be a horrible game to get back doored on.

This is one of if not the biggest play for me this year. I did buy the hook because 7 is a heck of a lot better than 7.5 or 8. I am not going "all in" by any means, but I fully expect Washington to mop the floor with the Lions.

Wash 5-2
Det 0-6

Wash 20 PF, 18.3 PA
Det 16.2 PF, 31.2 PA

Washington running the ball
Wash 158.1 Rushing yards per game 4.7 per carry
Detroit defense gives up 167.5 yards per game 4.8 per carry

Translation: Washington is a strong running team with a good offensive line. Clinton Portis will be able to move the ball and keep the chains moving. I could see 150 yards easily, and he could breach 200. This will make Jason Campbell's life easier, and the Redskins will once again play low risk offense. Running the ball is also good for running out leads and covering. The main way the Redskins get upset would be turnvers, but having such a good running team against such a poor run D negates that.

Detroit running the ball
Washington defense only gives up 278.7 Yards per game
86.4 Rushing yards per game 3.9

Translation: Detroit won't get much on the ground against a tough washington D. That will put the ball in Dan Orlavsky's hand in his 3rd NFL start against a top 10, maybe top 5 defense. I like those odds.

Detroit offense has 263.7 yards per game
187 passing, 76 rushing

Low down: Sometimes winless teams try extra hard to win ( especially at home), but sometimes they are hopeless. Maybe Detroit gives up? Their QB makes his 3rd NFL start, they have a weak run game that won't help him, they have 1 weapon on offense, and they have maybe the worst defense in the NFL.

The reason why this spread isn't high is because Washington has been in close games. They have won close ones, and the ones they lost were close. This one could be their coming out party. Last year the beat the crap out of Detroit maybe 35-3 and the game wasn't even close. The Redskins have a similar team, and Detroit might be worse without Kitna, Roy Williams and Rodgers on Run D.

I still think Washington's D is underrated, and I really like them to cover the 7. Peace.

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