Saturday, October 11, 2008

Week 6

Week 5 was a great week at 6-1-1 and I even won my leans. If I was down I probably would have played Pitt, but I just kept my winnings. Pitt can stop the run, and making David Garrard play QB instead of game manager changes that Jax team. Big Ben is the better QB and they won as dogs.

Week 6 ( all 1 unit plays)
Tampa -1
Cincy/Jets O42
Minny -13
Wash -13.5
Jax +3.5
I'd also like to get Philly and Dallas at better numbers ( maybe 2nd half pointspreads). I am also leaning Indy -4, and Chicago -2.5.

Tampa -
I have rode Tampa 3 weeks in a row now. The dog winning outright in Chicago, the 9 point GB win and the cover in Denver last week.

Tampa has a VERY good defense, Week 1 was a no play for me, but they could have easily beat the Saints in NO. There was a horrible non-holding call where Gaines Adams was abused, and Ragina Bush rushed in for a TD. Horribe 4th Q call that killed them.

People love Carolin as a road dog, because they have been good historically, but let's look at their splits.
Car- 18 pf, 22 pa on the road
TB - 27 pf, 15 pa at home

I don't have the stats in front of me, but small home Favs have done very well the past 2 years. Tampa opened -3, but Carolina backers bet it down to -1 ( at bodog). Carolina has beat 2 weak football teams, while Tampa has had some tougher tests @ Chi, GB, and @ Den. They could very well be a 4-1 team right now and if Carolina wins this game, they have a nice lead on the division. Look for the Bucs to throw the kitchen sink at em'.

I actually like Garcia starting over Griese. If Garcia played the whole game in Denver, I think Tampa would have won. Griese is a decent, solid vet who will give a chance to win, but Garcia is better. He isn't as much a game manager, he will take chances and brings life to that offense. I saw him yelling in the huddle. He wants to win. He has moxy.

Carolina has both tackles injured. Road grader Jeff Otah, and maybe the most underrated LT in the game, Jordan Gross. They are a fine tackle combo and they are hurt. This isn't good vs the solid defense.

More than 60% of the time, Tampa wins this game.

Cincy/Jets O 42 -
There are certain players that are good for overs in case you haven't noticed. Favre, Warner and Romo are 3 of them. They could throw a long TD pass, or a pick 6. These guys are looking to throw the ball downfield, where as the Trent Edwards, Jason Campbells, and Damon Huards of the world are looking to dump the ball off for a 3 yard gain.

Does the QB look downfield for a long or intermediate throw first, or does he look to check it down first? Byron Leftwhich has always been a check down guy, Brett Favre has always looked to make something happen. Warner might look downfield to long until he is sacked/fumbles it, but SOMETHING is going to happen. That is GREAT for overs.

I have been riding Cincy overs the past few weeks. Their offense is underrated. The line dropped because Palmer isn't playing, but I still think Fitz can do something ( he is a smart Harvard guy). The Bengals also have a chance to get nice garbage yards when the Jets are winning. The Jets line is too high for me, but I still like the over here. The Bungles defense sucks, Dexter Jackson is hurt, and Favre is an "overs guy". The Jets offense is probably properly valued for overs, but the Bengals are underrated. It is a fair play and hits over 60% of the time.

Minny -
When I was in high school we had a very talented football team. Our coach played in the NFL, but he wasn't very good. Our team had numerous college players ( including myself), my buddy was drafted, and another friend found his way into an NFL camp. Our team had a lot of talent, but we would lose to teams as good or better than us. We would crush weaker teams, but find a way to lose close games to equal teams.

The reason I bring that up is because I can see Minnesota crushing Detroit. Detroit is a very bad football team. I faded them last week with Chicago and noted that the line was 3.5 but that Lions lines could get out of hand. If the Lions get crushed again, their lines could get comical.

The Lions have a VERY bad defense, and they are weak against the run. The Lions give up an average of 180 yards per game on the ground for 5 yard per carry. On the road, they have given up 250 per game for 6.2 per carry. They have been crapped on every game, and NOW they face the purple Jesus, the best RB they have seen. Peterson should run wild over them. They KNOW it is coming but they still can't stop it. Once the Vikings get a lead, the game should be over. Running closes out games, and Peterson must be licking his chops.

If that isn't enough for you, Detroits 2 receivers are questionable and Kitna hasn't practiced and should be out. George Foster at RT is hurt as well. I think Kitna isn't that bad of a player. In fact, I'd say he is an above average QB, but he is in a horrible situation with that Lions team. Having Orlavsky or Stanton in there is a recipe for disaster. Ideally, you want those guys to manage the game, but they probably won't have that luxary.

The Vikings keep the tradition of my HS, and blow out a team they are better than.

Wash -13.5
Washington has similar logic to Minnesota. The Rams are a team in dissary, but you don't have to kill a team to win by 2 TDs. I think the Rams have little chance to win this game, maybe they cover, but Washington is not losing this softball in front of the home crowd. There is a lot of excitement in washington. They haven't been a good team in a decade and people are buying in.

I still don't like Washington's low risk offense, but there defense is for real. Not only have they played well, but they have done so against the better offenses in the NFL... NYG, Dallas, Philly, Arizona and the Saints.

Jason Leftwhich is a heavily overrated game manager at this point, but the Redskins defense is underrated. My first instinct for this game was to look at the under, but I can see Portis and the run game do their job. The Redskins are good at running the ball, and they play good defense. That is plenty enough to win 28-14 or better. I think the Rams will have trouble scoring points and the Redskins won't.

Jax -
This matchup sort of reminds me of the Tampa/Denver game. Good defense vs good offense. Reggie Nelson is out and that makes Jax open to the deep ball, but I'm not worried.

Jacksonville has the strong run game that Tampa doesn't have. They can attack Denver's run defense with Taylor and MJD. Jax can also look at the tape and see what Tampa did to hold Denver to 16 points.

Culter has some of his weapons hurt, with Sheffler and Royal. The odds makers have this as a higher scoring game than I would think, but both of these teams put up more points than I would have expected coming into this game.

This should be another fun game to watch and I do believe Jax is a dog that has a good chance to win outright. They could lose by a FG, or 1 point, but it is worth the risk.

The final factor for me in this game, is if I came to you before the season, and tol you I'd give you Jax and 3.5 points, you would have certainly took it. Jax has under performed a little this year, but take the Jags and the value. I have faded Denver vs KC in the sucker bet a few weeks ago, and I faded them with Tampa last week. The public is obsessed with offense and the Broncos are still a little overvalued in this spot.

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