Saturday, November 29, 2008

Week 13

4-1 on Thanksgiving, let's keep it rolling.

Miami @ STL Over 44 ( 1 unit)
Green Bay -3 ( 1 unit)
Indy -5 ( 1 unit)
Baltimore -7 ( 1 unit)
Washington +4 ( 1 unit)

I may add Oakland, Pitt, or Jets/Broncos O 48 or all of them at 4:15 also depending on how the 1pm games go. GL

Miami @ STL O 44
These teams combined give up over 53 points on average. Miami and their Wildcat offense averages 114 per game on the ground, and Pennington is a good efficient dink or dunk quarterback. This may bode well for unders however they should move the ball, and the Rams give up an average of 162.6 per game on the ground for 5.5 per carry. There is no doubt in my mind that the Fins will be able to move the ball and score points. Pennington is too much of a vet, Ricky and Ronnie will run, and the Rams will give up their yards. Let's hope they move the ball and score 7's instead of 3's.

On the other side, the Miami Dolphins defense got shredded by Matt Cassell last week. They had no pass rush, and their DB's aren't very good quality which means they got torched for over 400 yards through the air. That was on grass too. Granted the Rams have had their problems, but I believe they can score 20 and push this over. STL averages 15.4 per game at home, but if they push that to 20, and Miami gets their 30, then there isn't a problem going over 44.

Miami has 3 road overs, and 1 road under, The rams have 3 home overs and 2 home unders.

Green Bay -3
Green Bay is better than 5-6, and Carolina is worse than 8-3. If for nothing else, the football gods tend to even those things out. Carolina has also had their problems on the road this year. Carolina is 2-3, while GB is 3-2 at home.

Carolina on the road.
16.8 pf, 24.4 against = average a 7.6 point loss

GB at home
27 pf, 18 pa = average a 9 point win

The Packers defense usually is pretty good against the pass ( expect Brees last week), but they get shredded on the ground. D. Williams is a good back, but I am still not a huge believer in that Carolina offensive line. I can see Jake getting frustrated and throwing against that GB secondary, or see Jake trying to mimic Brees last week. This game is on grass not turf, and Jake isn't Brees. I haven't been overly impressed with Carolina this year, and their schedule has helped them to that 8-3 record. For example they played like crap against Oakland a few weeks ago ( I won with Carolina), but wasn't impressed. I think this is a good spot to fade them, and take GB after that weak loss on MNF. Green Bay fought the titans hard weeks ago, and I think they win this game at home. Rodgers is usually pretty good about taking what he can get, and that might be all he needs to do. Green Bay also has better special teams.

Indy -5
Some people think this is a huge Indy lock because Derek Anderson is starting but the guy started almost every game for the Browns anyway. This is the same Cleveland team from 3 weeks ago, only with a minor Brady Quin stint in there.

The reason why I think Indy wins, although this is not a super lock is this. Look at their W/L margins the past 10 weeks. W by 3, W by 6, W by 4, W by 3, L by 10, L by 20, W by 28, W by 4, L by 2, W by 3.

So if you are picking Indy, you are asking them to win by 6 or more, and that is something that would have Won 1, Lost 8 and pushed 1 of their last 10 games. Indy should beat Cleveland, they are a 4-2 Veteran road team that can win on the road, but the spread Can be a factor in this game. They have been getting people back from injury, and won their last 4 games, all by 6 points or less.

This may all sound anti Indy, but I do think they have had one of the harder schedules, and that this could be a team on the rise. Indy and Dallas were my SB picks and it hasn't been pretty with injuries, but these are two dangerous teams IMO.

The biggest thread to just kill this bet, is Josh Cribbs vs a weak Indy special teams.

Baltimore -7
Baltimore is in the same mold as Tennessee this year, or Jacksonville last year, or any of the good older Ravens teams. People love sucking off Joe Flacco, and David Garrard when the defense is stout, the run game is working, and when you aren't asking them to do much, but if you ask them to throw and beat you over and over, it isn't going to happen. Flacco has done alright for a rookie, but let's be honest, he is wearing the game manager hat.

The cincy offense sucks, and now they are facing a force on defense. Everybody loves offensive teams to cover spreads, but there is such a thing as the defense induced blowout. I am not suggesting this will be a blow out, but Cincy is one of the worst teams in the league, and Baltimore is one of the best teams. To only give up 1 TD makes this good enough to play.

Washington +4
I do think the Giants are going to win this game, and by any token they should. The main reason why I am taking this is because all of the money is being bet on NYG, and the line only moved 1 point.

I do know the Sean Taylor was gunned down 1 year and 2 days ago, and the Redskins will be retiring him into their ring of fame Sunday at the game. Clinton Portis was a big friend of Sean Taylor and it should be a very emotional game. The Giants also will be without Plax ( who shot himself at a NY night club), and Brandon Jacobs may sit this one out too.

The Giants are 10-1 and aren't going to go 15-1 this year. They will probably actually either get upset this week @ Wash or next week against a fight or flight Philly team.

I will take the Skins +4 in a charged game that should be closer than people think. The Skins do have a defense, and this game shouldn't be very high scoring. I can't stand the Deadskins, so even if they lose 100-0 I won't feel bad.

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