Sunday, November 30, 2008

More thoughts on week 13

Week 13 Card
Miami/STL O44 ( 1 unit)
Green Bay -3 ( 1 unit)
Indy -5 ( 1 unit)
Baltimore -7 ( 1 unit)
Washington + 4 ( 1 unit)
Parlay: Wash ML, Indy ML, Bal ML, Mia.stlO44 (.5 units) pays 8.6 to 1

I'd consder adding Tampa at halftime if the opportunity is there, Denver, Den/Jets O 48, Oakland, Pitt at 4PM depending on how these games go. GL.

ADDI add a rare parlay, if washington wins, I get paid. I think the colts/ravens are pretty good to go just to win, and that the miami over has a better than 50% shot of hitting. I most likely lose this parlay, but it pays pretty well and has a decent shot of winning.

Wash ML +165
Colts ML -230
Ravens ML -310
Fins/Rams Over 44
Pays 8.6 to 1

I put .5 units down to win 4.25

More thoughts posted....
Miami/STL over 44
Some thoughts to consider for Miami/STL over 44. Here are STL last games in that dome at home.

Chicago 3-27 loss = 30 points
Arizona 13-34 loss = 47 points
Dallas win 34-14 = 48 points
Buffalo loss 14-31 = 45 points
NY Giants loss 13-41 = 54 points
The Rams have gone over 44 in 4 or their last 5 home games.

Granted Dallas, the Giants and Arizona could score points, but Miami's offense is still better than Buffalo or Chicago's, and the Rams should put up more than 13 or 14 points. Consider in thise games the rams have only contributed 3, 13, 34, 14, and 13 points. I think they get at least 17 today, and that they could get over 20. The Rams shouldn't have a run game and they should be passing all day ( good for overs). The Patriots didn't really have a run game last week and they put up 48.

Throw in the chance of a RET or INT TD????? Trent Green threw 0 tds and 4 int's last week against the Bears. I'd have to agree with you that a pick 6, or even an INT setting up a short field TD is very possible.

Ted Ginn jr. running one back is also possible, he is one of the fastest players in the NFL, and Donnie Avery and Dante Hall are no joke either.Just remember, these defenses give up an average of 53.6 points combined, and this game is in the fast track dome. Getting the line at 44 is worth a play IMO.

Carolina's last road games
@ Atlanta 28-45 loss, the line was 1
@ Oakland 17-6 win, the line was 10, I watched the ugly game
@ Tampa 3-27 loss, the line was 1, I watched the ass beating
@ minn 10-20 loss, the line was 3.5, I watched the game

I didn't realize it, but I faded Carolina @ Minn ( it was my sucker bet), faded them against my darling Tampa team, and played them at Oakland and am 3-0 on Carolina there.Carolina has NOT been impressive on the road. I'd expect this game to go more like the Minnesota but I really don't see them traveling to GB and getting the win. The Tampa game was Tampa's best game of the year, and Carolina's worst game of the year. 3-27 doesn't even really tell how not close that game was. I played Carolina in the Oakland game, and both teams honestly played bad. Jake had a number of turnovers, but Oakland was just worse. You got the feeling Oakland would never score again. Brian Billeck called the game and it was just ugly.

I just see a Carolina team that can't play on the road that is worse than their record, and a GB team that is better than 5-6. Aaron Rodgers has done better than I would have thought this year and getting back Ryan Grant should help.I am still not a huge fan of that Carolina line ( and their OC is a former lineman). Jordan Gross is a stud ( an underrated tackle by the way), Kalil has played well for his age, and Otah is going to be an awesome road grader run blocker, but I don't see that push from the guards. That line is still a year or 2 away with Khalil and Otah being younger.

Deadskins +4
The Giants should win this game, but this is the NFL and the better team doesn't always win. The Redskins had horrible showings against defenses that bring pressure. Jason Campbell is NOT better at all than average, and you take him out of his comfort zone and he fails every time. The Steelers game a few weeks ago, and the Giants game on opening night are picture perfect examples. I am not sure if people know nationally, but Sean Taylor was killed 1 year ago on Thursday and the Redskins have really been revisiting that. The team plans to retire his jersey into their wall of fame ( the players numbers around the stadium). This is a big deal and Clinton Portis in particular was a good friend of Taylors. It reminds me of when the Giants owner wellington mara died ( a good friend of Tiki Barber), and the Giants spanked Washington 35-0.

Not to get too crazy, but if you have ever read the book " the art of war", the author talks about not wanting to fight troops that are cornered, " fight or flight" or desperate. You always want that opposing army to have that flee and escape route.Washington lost a player, a friend, and a man, and they are also fighting for their playoff lives.

The Giantsa re 10-1 with 5 games remaining, and they honestly aren't going to win all 5. I think they could have trouble today, or with another desperate team next week ( Philly). As much as I hate Jason Campbell and the high school offense he runs on offense, the Washington defense is good. They should be able to slow down the Giants run game, and force a Plax-less Giants passing game beat those good corners they have.The O/U is pegged at 42, and I don't see a lot of points. The weather is cold, the field is grass, and we have 2 strong defenses here. Lower scoring = better for the team getting 4 points.Gimme the home dog and 4 and let's hope the G-men win by 3.

Baltimore -7
Baltimore is 7-4 and 8-3 ats
Cincy is 1-9-1 and 4-7 ats

Baltimore's average game is a 23.5- 17 point win
Cincy's average game is a 13.5- 25.1 point loss

- Baltimore wins their average game, by basically a TD and Cincinatti is NOT an average team, they are far worse.
- Cincy has lost their average game by 12, and Baltimore is BETTER than average. Even at home, cincy averages a 10 point loss.

The Ravens are a quiet good team. You don't see it because that offense is so not sexy. Joe Flacco, the running game etc. Tennesse is a very similar team but they have the better coach, the vet QB, and the better RB's. If Tennesse was playing at Cincy, do you think you would be able to get that line for 7? If Dallas or the Giants were at Cincy, do you think the line would be 7?I think Baltimore mops up the Bengals and the Steelers gave them a pretty good game plan as to how last week. Baltimore will play fierce defense, force a lot of punts, and score on short fields. Flacco isn't going to throw for 300, but with that defense he won't have to.In the Bengals/Philly game, there were 34 possessions, and 2 tds. I see the Ravens D shutting down the Bungles, but the Ravens win by more than 7.

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