Sunday, November 09, 2008

Week X

Week X
Week 9 recap
Jax -1/TB -2.5 Teaser ( 2 units) LOSS
GB + 4.5 (2 units) WIN
Ravens +2 ( 1 unit) WIN
Arizona Cards -3 ( 1 unit) WIN
Giants/Dallas U 43 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Pittsburgh + 3 ( 1 unit ) WIN
Week 9 Total = 4-2, + 2 units

Week X
Carolina -2.5, NO/Atl O 43 ( 2 unit teaser)
Ravens -1
Leans: Ten/Chi U, Arizona, I wouldn't mind getting good 2nd half lines for these games.

This play really needs no explanation. If I win my Ravens/ Halftime plays, I might just go and take Carolina ATS also. Jemarcus Russell might be the worst starting quarterback in the league, and that is even with first time starters and backups in there. He had 31 passing yards last week vs Atlanta, and they are a below average defense. The Raiders had more penalty yards than offensive yards in last week's first half. The Raiders are also going through a coaching change, and the dumping of Deangelo Hall.

I like Delhomme to Steve Smith this game. Carolina is one of the better non NFC East teams, and they have flown under the radar this year. The Raiders are 6-2 and a top 10 team in my book that is playing one of the worst teams in the league. The only thing that worries me is Carolina's past inconsistencies, but they have to beat the Faders.

Carolina PF 21.8, PA 15.9
Oakland PF 13.4, PA 25.1

Worst comes to worst Carolina wins by a FG, but I am pretty sure they win by double digits, road or not. Delhomme traditionally can play on the road and as a dog, but sometimes craps the bed at home or as a fav, I don't see how they mess this one up. Carolina is better at every aspect of this game.

First of all, this game is on a flat surface dome. New Orleans averages 28 points on turf, while Atlanta averages 31.3. Both defenses give up about 20 per game on turf.

New Orlean's last point totals, 37, 7, 34, 27, 31, 32, 24, 20
Atlanta's last point totals 24, 14, 22, 27, 9, 38, 9, 34

New Orleans has the best QB in the NFC, and one of the best offenses in the NFL, they will get their points. New Orleans also has a weak defense. Atlanta has actually had a pretty good offense, and a below average defense.

NO 403 yards, 315 passing, 88 rushing
ARL 361 yards, 197 passing, 163 rushing

New Orleans scores through the air, Atlanta has a very strong ground game. I do think they go over 50, but Over 43 looks real good to me. Worst comes to worst a 24-20 game would seem low scoring to me.

The Ravens cashed in last week, and I see them exploiting Houston this week. Before the season started I wasn't high on Baltimore at all. They have a difficult schedule and were led by a rookie QB. The Ravens sister team has to be Jacksonville who was about a 12-4 team last year. They won by their dominant defense, and the QB managed the games. This year, the Jags defense isn't as good, and people wonder where the over hyped David Garrard is. Winning games and managing them is totally different.

Joe Flacco is a rookie and isn't nearly as good as people give him credit for. If he were on say the Saints, they would be a 2-14 team, but on the Ravens were he makes a few plays here and there, it is fine.

The Ravens like to play conservative on offense, and win with their defense. That is pretty easy to do against a Houston team that can't stop the run, and has their #1 DT injured ( Okoye) and their stud MLB ( Ryans). Those are two of their best players, and they are only easier to exploit now. Houston gives up 27 PPG and 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. Baltimore gives up 17 PPG and 2.8 yards on the ground.

Sage Rosenfelds will start and is one of the better backups in the league, but he should have no ground game. Welcome to 3rd and 8 and the Ravens aggressive defense coming after you. Joe Flacco should have 3rd and 3's which are much easier to convert. The Ravens are last years 12-4 Jaguars. Notice the Jaguars are last years Ravens too.

This week isn't a big card, but I am trying to just pick winners.

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