Monday, November 03, 2008

Week 9

Jax -1/TB -2.5 Teaser ( 2 units) LOSS
GB + 4.5 (2 units) WIN
Ravens +2 ( 1 unit) WIN
Arizona Cards -3 ( 1 unit) WIN
Giants/Dallas U 43 ( 1 unit) LOSS
3-2 + 1 unit

- Both of these games started out with the heavy home underdogs taking a lead. I will have to admit that I was quite shocked with both. Even so, for TB it was about the worst case scenario. They turned the ball over 4 times ( vs 1 for KC) and still won. That is a statistical anomaly that is about 3 standard deviations away from a normal game.

The Jags also did what they shouldn't do and that is get behind in a ball game. I laugh when people start mentioning David Garrad as a top 10 or good QB. Yes, the guy had nice stats last year with 2 great RB's and a defense MANAGING THE GAME, but if you are losing do you really want this guy mounting your come back? Sure, he had only 2 turnover last year but that was playing conservative low risk football due to the team around him. If he was say a KC Chief or Detroit Lion those teams would be just as miserable with him. The same thing you have seen with Garrard as of late, was true for Byron Leftwhich and even Jason Campbell now. The biggest difference between Garrard and Leftwhich is that Garrard is mobile and can move around, while Leftwhich is a giant pile of fat crybaby so you might as well go with Garrard. Yeah he is better and I did exaggerate some, but please, don't try and tell me Garrard is a top QB. Convert the damn 2 point conversion and BEAT THE WIN LESS TEAM. If the Jags win I am having a fat + 5 unit week right now.

GB was initially my favorite game of the week and I did think they would win outright. They fought, made it a game in a hostile Tennessee environment in what was probably the best game of the week. Maybe I should have played this game bigger? It did cancel out that damn teaser that was about the worst case scenario.

The old gamblers 101 rule did play true this time. Cleveland was an over 7 point underdog that won outright the previous week, and was favored this week. Historically that means there was a major perception shift ( it was also the Giants/Redskins games that did that), but Baltimore +2 was good value considering they won outright by 10.

I didn't even watch this game but it wasn't even close. The cards dominated an overrated STL team ( sort of like how Cle was overrated) from the last few weeks. I said that Warner shouldn't have any problems throwing for 300, and he threw for well over that. Kurt Warner = a quarterback, not some busted game manager. If the Cards are losing a game, they have a chance to actually win.

Giants/Dal U 43
I was scared to actually play the Giants -9 and thought that or Philly could have been a trap. Maybe I was just too scared of it all and needed to play those winnings. I just hate sucker bets and try and avoid them like the Plague. Why not just take other match ups like say Bal/Arizona and win those one instead of taking the big volume games?

I am glad the Giants pounded their hated rivals so it isn't a crime to lose 1 unit. This game really could have gone under if every score wasn't a TD, and that defensive TD where Plax and Eli were not on the same page hurt. Oh well, I did finish up this week and that is always a good thing. I may play Pitt tonight if not I will retire week nine + 1 unit.

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