Sunday, November 02, 2008

Week 9

Week 9
Jax -1/TB -2.5 Teaser ( 2 units)
GB + 4.5 (2 units)
Ravens +2 ( 1 unit)
Arizona Cards -3 ( 1 unit)

I also like Pitt on MNF, and might add some 4PM games and half time plays so stay tuned.

Last week I banked big on Washington winning/covering for a 5 unit play. I managed to squeak that one out for a big win, but I gave a lot of it back on 3 consecutive losses to only end up with 1.25 units. Winning money from Vegas is winning money and it is great to be positive, but I would have liked to finish up more.

The Bengals have been a fade for weeks. I think the Jags have underachieved so far this year and are underrated. Their defense is strong, and against Ryan Fitzpatrick they should have no problems shutting down the Bengals offense. On the other side of the ball, the Jags have a 2 headed monster running the ball. Taylor and MJD against a weak Marvin Lewis defense. I did tease this one down so Jax just has to win, but I'd guess that they cover the number as well. Running the ball helps close out victories, and the Jags shouldn't be as suspect to the back door cover at the end.

Similar principle to the Jags game. I find it difficult to see where the KC Chiefs are going to get points in this game. TB has a top 3 defense, and they are up against No Larry Johnson, or Jamal Charles, but a weak Kolby Smith, and No Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle, but 3rd string QB Tyler Thigpen.

I am generally against 3rd QB's I know nothing about, and especially when they won't have a running game and they are facing a top 3 defense. I think the point spread isn't ridiculous because 1) The Chiefs only lost by 4 last week, and 2) The game is in KC where they are traditionally much better.

I don't like how Jermaine Phillips is out for Tampa, and I am not sure they will score a ton of points themselves, but they SHOULD win the game and they should win by more than a FG. TB has an advantage at everything you want to look at: Coach, QB, RB, Offense, Defense, Special teams.

Green Bay Packers +4.5
I was riding Tennessee and Tampa all year, but I feel the Titans are prime for a loss. I faded them last week and it was a nice win and comeback on MNF, but the Packers will be a strong challenger as well. The Pack are a live dog getting 4.5, and I think they actually win this game.

More of the public is on the Titans, the Titans are coming off a big emotional win, and a short week, while the Pack is coming off of a bye. That alone messes with the match up a little bit in favor of GB.

Aaron Rodgers and Charles Woodson are a little banged up but will play, while Kyle Vandenbosh is in a similar situation for the Titans. I think those guys will all be fine and play at their high level.

You could argue the match up favors the Titans, with that strong run game against a GB team that has had some problems defending the run and the Titans with their top 3 or top 5 defense defending the Packers offense, but I look at those intangibles for this game to favor the Pack.

This should be one of the better games of the week, and especially to watch. Why not have a little wager on it and win some money?

Ravens +2
A good general rule for handicappers is to fade a team that is an underdog that wins outright, and is favored the next week. The Brownies were 7.5 point underdogs last week and beat the Jags, and now they are 2 point favorites over Cleveland.

Bal O 164.7 pass, 142.6 Run
Cle O 167.4 pass, 98.3 run

Baltimore's offense looks superior with the same passing numbers, but much better run numbers. I actually think Cleveland has a better O, they just weren't in good rythem before. Baltimore has been running out more leads and has better rushing stats.

Bal D 178.4 Pass, 64 Rush
Cle D 195 Pass, 141.6 Rush

Baltimore had the superior Offense on paper ( Although I like Cleveland's offense and their potential better), but there is no doubt Baltimore has a MUCH better defense. Baltimore gives up over 75 yards per game on the ground less! Only 64 rushing yards per game is fantastic, and I don't see a slow but powerful Jamal Lewis busting off huge runs this game. Cleveland on the other hand can't stop the run and that is exactly what Baltimore will try and do. They both have similar stats vs the pass, but Baltimore has a fantastic run D, and Cleveland has a bad one.

I don't like either Head Coach. Neither one deserved the job they got. Romeo has been nothing but excuses, bad defenses and bad calls, and Harbaugh Jr never should have got this job and he wreaks of being green. This game should be a low scoring game ( which favors the dog and defensive team) and I see Baltimore pulling it out.

Arizona -3
- This game is a coming home party for Kurt Warner.
- Arizona is very healthy, while the Rams are hurt with S. Jackson, L. Little, and Carriker.

Arizona PF 28.6, PA 24.4
Rams PF 16, PA 28.7

The Rams defense isn't very good when they are healthy, and they could be without their top pass rusher, their interior stud lineman, and secondary guys are banged up. There is no doubt in my mind Kurt Warner could light that team up for 300+ yards, while the Cards score 28+, but I am much less sure Bulger would do the same.

Zona 369.3
Rams 267.1

The Cardinals offense is MUCH more potent in yards, points, talent, whatever way you want to slice it. The Rams are NOT the greatest show on turf anymore, they are missing their RB, Bulger has been benched and is back. That offense just isn't what it once was.

Yards against
Zona 319.3
Rams 386.3

Now I am not going to sit here and argue the Cardinals have a GOOD defense, but it is certainly BETTER than that crap the Rams put out there. Granted, the Rams have been better these last few games giving up only 352 in their past 3 games, but that still isn't very good. The Cardinals have better offense, defense AND special teams.

I actually like Ken Wisenhunt the Cardinals coach better than Jim Hazlett too. I think this line is only -3, because the Rams have played better recently, with wins over Washington and Dallas, and keeping it close with New England, but overall Arizona is a better team. These guys are division rivals, and Arizona will have the better talent on the field, and the Rams could have the Hazlett effect wearing off. Go Cards.

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