Saturday, October 14, 2006

Week 6 plays

Plays are with a 50 unit bankroll, and I am up 25 units 12-6 ATS
1-0 Teasers3-0 ML1-0 ML parlay1-1 Quarter Lines4 winning weeks, 0 losing weeks, 1 Push week
last week 1-2 ATS, 1-0 ML, 0-1 on a Quarter line to break even

This weeks plays...
Redskins & Steelers ML Parlay (5 units to win 3)
Bengals -4.5 ( 2.5 units)
Eagles -2.5 ( 2.5 units)
Da Bears -9.5 ( 2 units)
Giants +3 ( 2 units)
Rams +3.5 ( 1.5 units)

also looking at San Fran at 4PM

Redskins/ Steelers ML Parlay ( 5 units)
I really like this play, as I really like both teams to win...

The short version, is the redskins should win at home, against a terrible road team in Tennesse. So far Tennesse has put up ...
13 points vs a weak Indy D
14 vs dallas
10 vs miami
7 vs San Diego

Tennesse hadn't run the ball at all, until they ran for over 200 against the colts. The Colts escaped and won by 1, but if Indy had built a 2 TD lead early on, they could have easily won by 3,4 or 5 touchdowns.

Washington should be able to stop the titans run, and force Vince Young to play quarterback. This is the same Vince Young who only threw for 63 yards and 1 pick against the colts weak defense. This is the same Vince Young with a side arm delivery who throws the ball like he is flinging shit.

According to the the Titans have the worst DVOA in the entire NFL. I think last week's 1 point loss was more of a function of Indy playing bad, than the titans playing well. Tennesse basically has a -25% DVOA for offense and a + 25% Dvoa for defense. That basically means that their offense is 25% worse than a ghost "average" offense, and their defense is 25% worse than an average " ghose" defense. That might not sound like a lot, but it adds up.

I'm not a big fan of the washington redskins, and in fact I predicted them to finish last in the NFC East when ESPN was hyping them up to represent the NFC east in the superbowl.

I went to the gym today and saw Brandon Lloyd on TV. He was on TV showing off his H2 Hummer, with hydrolics, rims, sound system etc. This is the same Brandon Lloyd that was traded away from San Francisco for being a problem. I guess he's also an amatuer " rapper"... maybe he can make some rhymes about how he is overpaid and hasn't done anything so far this season. The skins wasted a 3rd round draft pick and 25 million bucks on him. Before last week had 11 receiving yards on 1 catch. There are tons of receivers in the league who don't "rap", don't cost 25 million bucks, don't bitch for the ball etc. Mr. Colston in New Orleans for example is a 7th round pick rookie and has done MUCH better than Brandon Lame.

I was on washington two weeks ago a sucker bet, then I rode the Giants last week to beat them. The redskins are very fortunate enough to draw Tennesse this week. The skins have a power rushing attack behing a good offensive line, and then a dink and dunk passing attack. The Giants stuffed their run, and covered up that conservative passhing attack. The thing is that tennssee will have trouble with portis and the running attack, and their secondary can't tackel at all. I look for another conservative game plan with 5 yard passes to Santana Moss to be run back 60 yards for a touchdowns.

The Steelers are the other leg of this ML parlay. The steelers are the superbowl champs but aren't sitting pretty at 1-3 with three straight losses. I heard Quadry Ismail on the radio on friday talking about " Should the steelers replace Big Ben with Charlie Batch"? I almost threw up my lunch when I heard that! I am no big ben fan by any stretch of the imagination. Big Ben has had a solid career in Pittsburgh thus far "managing games". It almost reminds me of when A-Rod goes 0-4 in a baseball game and then ESPN says he isn't clutch, is in a slump, and should be traded.

The steelers traditionally start off slow in seasons, but they are a different beast at home. I think the Steelers are so good at home, because that grass slows down opposing offenses making that solid defense VERY solid. The steelers power running attack is also BETTER on that grass. The steelers probably have the best O-Line coach in the NFL in Russ Grimm, and one of the top defensive coordinators in Lebeau. I think with a few weeks of film and mistakes to go over, they bounce back... Big Ben couldn't possibly play any worse, and I think they run the ball and have a play action passing game....

Back up Damon Huard has played well for KC thus far, but I believe Heinz field has the lowest QB rating for opposing QB's. LJ got hurt at the end of last week, and I dont think the steelers rush D will be very kind to him. I know Joey P is scheduled not to play, but the steelers have a solid UNIT at stopping the run. I see a lot of pressure on Huard for the cheifs on offense without that run game. I am not sold at all on the cheifs Defense as well.

Herm Edwards was preaching and talking all kinds of shit after the win @ arizona last week, but if Neil Crackers makes that 51 yard field goal, the game goes to OT. In fact, it looked like Dee Brown fumbled at the 1 also.

The steelers snap their 3 game losing streak, and win at home where they are a different beast. Cheifs are on their second straight road game, and were lucky to get the win at Arizona.

Bengals -4.5 ( 2.5 units)

Not sure if I am even going to play this game. I bought this line last sunday night and it got pounded all the way up to 6 and 6.5 in some places. I think the Bengals bounce back after the bye and poor showing vs New England. Tampa's defense still scares me some, and I don't like how the Bucs are hungry for a win.

I'd almost be scared this game is a sucker bet, but Tampa could have been considered a sucker bet last week. One one hand, you see Carson Palmer vs Gradkowski and could envision the Bengals winning by 3 TD. I could see Gradkowski screwing up with that poor O-Line and against those all hawk bengal secondary. On the other hand the Bucs Defense should be better, and they are hungry for a win.

Eagles -2.5 ( 2 units)

Everybody says the Eagles are due for a let down after last week. I think a "let down" would apply more to a team that wins one, losses one, wins two, losses two etc. It's funny how the Eagles are due for a letdown at 4-1. Is a team that is 9-1 due for a let down after a big win? I think a let down situation more applies to a 6-4 team, or a bad team off an upset win etc. I do think the better team won last week in Philly.

In fact, the eagles have outplayed every opponent they have faced. They outplayed the Giants but somehow lost. They have actually held the door open on a number of games, as they have jumped out to early leads.

It's funny how people still call Donovan "Mcnaverage". Donovan is not an elite quarterback because of his feet, or his arm, or even his receivers... Donovan is an elite QB because of his MIND. He makes good choices, and his offense is pretty much un-defendable when run correctly. They run a read and react passing offense, where somebody will be open on any given passing play. It is donovans job to hit that open guy, and he does.

That offenese is very good for a quarterback who knows WHO to throw the ball to. That offense is NOT good for a receiver who wants the ball every play regardless of the coverage, down and distance, and matchups ( yeah I am looking at you TO).

I think Drew Brees is starting to excell at those same things donovan is good at. He learned how to play QB in San Diego, and is doing a good job this year as a hired gun for the saints. It's funny because you don't just turn into a QB instantly. These guys that play QB ( donovan, Drew Brees, Eli, Peyton, Carson, trent green) didn't all just start off with super success. Drew Brees started off his career slowly, but gets better each and every year. I think teams and coaches should have a little bit slower hook with their young quarterbacks because it takes time to learn the position. In the past, QB's used to sit on the bench for three years before they even saw the field.

I think the Saints have a tough test against the Eagles aggressive defense, and I don't think the saints defense is all that great to contain the eagles offense. The eagles are a more legit 4-1 team in my opinion, and the hyped up saints lose this week. I think after the saints lose, and the rams win,the Mike Golics of the NFL will be talking about how it was the RAMS who are the top sleeper team in the NFL. The last thing the public needs, is for mike golic to be telling them that " this team is for real". I am sure all the talking heads on the pregame shows will have known it all along.

Rams +3.5 ( 1.5 units)
See sucker bet thread

Giants +3 at Atlanta ( 2 units)

I think the Giants are the better team here.

This is the second easiest game the Giants have so far this season. Indy, @ Philly, @ Seattle is no joke. The Giants would have liked to come out 2-1, but 1-2 wasn't that bad. They had their easiest game last week, and beat the redskins pretty bad. They only won by 16, but with 5 trips to the redszone they could have easily won by 20+ points.

Atlants is probably playing their 2nd or 3rd hardest game. They beat Carolina without steve smith, but got embarassed against the Saints.

In short,
The Falcons like to run the ball, but the Giants defense is strong against the run.
The Giants can pass the ball, but the Falcons are stronger against the pass.

People are talking bad about the Giants secondary, but they have 50% new starters, really 60% in nickel coverage, and started out against maybe the 3 best QB's in the game. Peyton, Donovan and Hasselback. Those teams had good offenses, highlighted by good Quarterbacks ( not game managers). After a few of those poor outings, the Giants should have corrected those defensive assignments.

Michael Pick is in no way shape or form a good Quarterback. Most players get better and better as their career wears on, but Michael Pick is the same player as he was 6 years ago.

The Definition of Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again, yet expecting different results.

This year new Offensive coordinator Gregg Knapp decided instead of trying to turn Michael Pick into a thrower, to rivert back to a highschool or college offense and use his talents. I disagree with this because they don't run the option in the NFL for a reason.

I wish I was in the Giants locker room trying to break down the Falcons because they wouldn't be that hard to defend. Their favorite play is a stretch play to the right, where the whole offensive line blocks down, and Pick either hands it off to Dunn, or he fakes the handoff and runs a naked bootleg.

The Cardinals tried to defend this by having the weakside DE not crash down, but to strafe along the line of scrimege and try and cut off Pick. It didn't work too well, because although B. Berry is a good End, he isn't the fastest player in the world.

Later in the game, the Falcons ran this play again. They love to run this play inside the red zone to get Pick to score and make the fans go nuts. They ran the regular handoff to dunn, but then went back to the handoff to Pick. This time, the LB's had clear assignments...

The MLB played the handoff to dunn
The Sam attacked the handoff to dunn as well
" but the will played the bootleg"

The Cardinals had a no-name linebacker playing "will", but by knowing " what to attack" even he stopped Michael Pick on his favorite play.

I'd like to think the New York Giants and their fulltime coaching staff saw what I saw and will make the neccessary adjustments. " MLB and SAM to attack the run, while the WILL plays the bootleg".

The Falcons have been able to run those plays on offense, but aren't very good on the short field near the redszone. They have other plays they run off that one play, including plays were Pick rolls out, and the tight end rolls out with him. If the first read isn't open, michael pick takes off and runs. Their red zone struggles have got to worry Atlanta backers.

I just see the Falcons running this highschool/ college offense. I think Pick needs to work harder, and doesn't even want to learn. Before the season started he said " Just let Michael Pick be Michael Pick". He said he didn't want to be a drop back player, but wanted to run. That tells me he is too lazy to learn defenes and play pro QB, and that he doesn't even WANT to. A lot of QB's look at the ariel screen shots when they are on the bench, but Michael Pick just sits on the bench with this blank stare on his face.

The Giants weakness on D, has been the pass, but Michael Pick is not a very good passing QB. I think the fast defensive ends in NY ( especially Osi right in his face), and a smart MLB in Pierce should give him fits.

On the other side of the ball, Eli Manning is the complete opposite. Manning has been getting better every year, and can make the adjustments at the line of scrimge.

The Falcons build a fast defense that is supposed to stop the pass, but the Giants aren't just a run and gun team, I wouldn't be suprised to see a heavy dose of Tiki and Brandon Jacobs as well.

I've heard reports that John Abraham is NOT 100% but he will play. I think people that like the falcons, Love them because they get Abraham back. Eli Manning reads a defense and gets rid of the ball pretty quickly though. I wouldn't be surpised if Manning gets sacked less this year than Michael Pick who holds onto the ball and has weak pocket presence.

I don't think the Dome will hurt the Giants, as they have a speedy front 7, and they use all their playmakers on offense.

I also think the falcons have a thug secondary, that is prone to penalties.

I see the Giants winning this game outright, but I'll take the 3 pts. If the Giants build a lead and force atlanta to pass, I'd love to see that!

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