Sunday, October 22, 2006

Week 7 Sucker bet

Week 7 - Kansas City Chiefs +6

One of the things I like to do when I cap a game at this point in the season is try and find a "similar" game that already happened. I might try and think how the game will play out, or see how the teams responded in a similar situation.

The game I think this will most resemble most in the SD Chargers season, is the game where they went into Baltimore and lost 13-16. The Chargers actually outplayed the Ravens in that game and still lost. The chargers had that lead and every opportunity to close out that game, but they didn't have that killer instinct. The Ravens couldn't run the ball, and Mcnair had a bad game ( minus the final drive). Even that final TD pass was in tight zone coverage and in front of the endzone, Todd Heap made an amazing play.

The Chargers are near the top of everybodies power rankings. They crusised over some weaker opponents this year and then lost in Baltimore. They outphysicaled the steelers in pittsburgh ( on national TV), and then beat the snot out of the 49ers. Everybody is calling Phillip Rivers the "real deal", just like people were calling Rex Grossman the real deal two weeks ago.

The Kansas City Chiefs are a different beast at home. They started the year off losing both the game and their quarterback to the Bengals. They have also blown out the 49ers at home. On the road they lost by a field goal to a tough denver team. Denver an San Diego are similar in talent level and they lost by 3 @ Denver. I know the Chargers beat the Steelers, and the Steelers beat the crap out of the chiefs, but these communitive math properties don't neccesarily work in football. The fact that the chiefs could play at denver says a lot.

One of the underrated aspects to this matchup I see is Rivers on the road. The Chiefs secondary is not bad. I'd say Surtan and Law are a top 5 conerback duo. You might just dismiss them as being "old", but Law still has it, and Surtan was once a top coverman too. There was a stat on one of the chiefs games, talking about their secondary and career interceptions and I think those current starters lead the NFL. This will be a tough game for a young Rivers on the road. I think Maryball will try and limit the passing into easier more manageable throws if he can. I really don't see San Diego throwing the ball around a lot. I can see the chargers gameplan as a lot more running.

For the Chiefs offense, I don't think LJ will be running wild this week. That advantage of having the talented Will Shields and Brian Waters in the middle will at least be partially whiped out by Jamal Williams. I think Julious Peppers is probably the best defensive player in the NFL, but Jamal Williams is one of the top 5 most valueable to his team. The chargers front 7 is just that good, that you can't count on the Chiefs run game. The chargers have not allowed a 100 yard rusher all season, and they have not even allowed a 75 yard rusher! Before we crown them the best run defense ever though, lets remember some of the teams and situations they played. When the 49ers, titans, and raiders are losing by 4 touchdowns, they have little incentive to run the ball. The other games were tough physical games against the ravens and steelers that were virtually stalemates.

I do think the chargers are more vulnerable in the secondary, and Damon Huard has been playing some smart football. I think he will also have a conservative gameplan as implemented by his coach. He might not be a young quarterback, but he is a relatively NEW quarterback as far as staring goes.

Field position and turnovers will be of PARAMOUNT importence in this game. Everybody loves to just cap offenses, and defenses and say... The Chargers are a lock. Some people might even look at the coaches as well... Even though Rivers is better than Huard, I believe Rivers is more likely to turn the ball over on the road, against the chiefs verteran secondary than Huard is. I think the Chargers will have a balanced gameplan at best, but they will probably be conservative. The special teams in the return game should be a factor in this game. If the game does turn out to be similar to that ravens 13-16 game... then punt returns should be huge and field position game should be huge. The chiefs have the best return man in the NFL in the last 5 years... Daunte the X factor.

Kansas City is a hostile enviornment. It is widely considered the #1 homefield advantage in football, and many don't consider it a 3 point homefield advantage, but 4 points. SD is very aware of this homefield advantage. They have been practicing "noise" and "no huddle" in practice and are aware of their past failers in kansas city. I don't care about how noisy a stadium is, but I care about taking away opponents focus.

I think those KC fans will remember why a successfull Martyball was run out of town. The chargers could have a lead in this game, but he could run the famous martyball, "prevent offense" and cost his team the game, or show chargers betters the old Moose. It seems to me that Martyball is just focused on "winning this game". Betters think the chargers will just roll in this game, but martyabll himself knows it will be a tough game in KC today.

I don't see the Chargers scoring more than 20 points. That makes me comfortable because If the chargers score no more than 20, I certainly think the Cheifs can score 14 points at home and at least cover. The Ravens/ Chargers game was 16-13, and I think this game could have a score somewhere in that range. I am not much of a totals guy, but U44 looked solid which is why that total has dropped 4.5 points in some places.

Public pounding KC with 75% of the bets on them

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