Sunday, November 11, 2007

Week 10

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Week 7 1-2-0 ATS. 0-0 ML -1 unit
Week 8 3-0-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 9 units
Week 9 3-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Season = +18.25 units

These last couple weekends I have made money, but a lot of my leans (like Buffalo) did well too. Here is my week 9 card.
Patriots @ Colts +6 = Win 3 units
Deadskins @ Jets +4 = Win 1 unit
SD @ Vikings +7 = Win 1 unit
Dallas @ Eagles +3 = Lost 1 unit
Pack @ Chiefs -2 = Lost 1 unit
Pats/Colts 2nd half Over 28 = Lost 1 unit
3-3 ATS, +2 units

Week 10 Card
Teaser: Browns @ Pitt -3 + SF @ Seattle -3, for 3 units (beted)
Jax @ Tenn ML ( 2 units -220)
STL @ NO Over 45.5 ( 2 units Beted)
Minnesota +6 @ Green Bay ( 2 units Bodog)
Eagles +3 @ Deadskins ( 2 units)
- Also looking at playing Seattle -10 and some late games depending on 1PM.

Cleveland/Pitt -3 +Sf/Sea -3 ( 3 units)
- Cleveland has been able to throw the ball around this year, but they are facing an A+ Pass defense this week right in the hornets nest. Pittsburgh has only given up 12PPG, with only 5.1 ypp and 76 yards against the run. Derek Anderson will face his toughest test of the season against the leagues best defense.
- Seattle is facing probably the worst offense in the league, and possibly without their best player Frank Gore. Not only does the 49ers offense stink, but the Hawks defense looks even better at home as opposed to the road. I like the Hawks to keep their foot on the gas this week when they have a lead ( they blew a lead last week). I like them at -10, and I really like them at -3 as a safer play.

Jax @ Tenn ML ( 2 units)
Now that Quinton Gray won’t have a run game, what will he do? This game could resemble the Bucs/Titans game but I don’t believe in the Jags passing game at all. This is as much of a fade on Quinton Gray as anything but the Titans do have a monster defense.

Stl @ NO Over 46 (2 Units)
- Not enough points as defenses give up a combined 50 PPG
- NO has averaged 30.5 points in their last 4 games as the offense has woke up.
- The Rams have been able to put up some points in domes and they get S-Jack back.
Everybody knows these defenses aren’t good, but the offenses have been lagging a little bit giving this a smaller total than it should be. The Saints offense has come alive, and I like fading 2 bad defenses here in the dome.

Minny +6 @ GB ( 2 units)
- 6 points is a lot of points and Minnesota might get their best QB play of the year from Brooks BollingerAnything but Tavaras Jackson completing and ugly 46% of his passes.
- Green Bay can’t run on a normal defense, never mind against this Minnesota defense with the Williams boys at DT.
- I will take my chances that Favre will have throw 40 times and not turn it over to win.
- All of Green Bays home games have been decided by a touchdown or less.
- Minnesota lost on the road to dallas by 10, but the rest of their road games have all been decided by a field goal or less.
- Surprisingly Minnesotas team is actually built more as an outdoor team than that Packers with the ability to run and stop the run.
- I just really think that if Brooks Bollinger can even play average, I like the Vikings chances here. With Tavaras Jackson in there, the Vikings average more rushing yards than passing yards? They have more total rushing yards and more yards per play. Tavaras Jackson is a complete and utter joke and him not playing is a reason to like the Vikings.

Philly +3 @ Washington ( 2 units)
- The better team is getting points here and the Eagles are probably the healthiest they have been all year.
- The Eagles outplayed the Redskins in the first meeting except for converting 0/5 in the red zone with 4 field goals.
- I think LJ Smith coming back to the lineup really helps this Eagles team that is better than their 3-5 record shows. They had the heartbreaking loss to the Bears, the bad special teams loss to the Packers, and the loss to the Redskins where they scored 12 points in their 5 red zone trips instead of a possible 35 points. If a parallel universe this eagles team could be 5-3, and that Redskins team that needed Overtime to beat the Jets and Dolphins could be the 3-5 team.

Make sure to come back at 4PM and see if I add any games. Good luck.

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