Friday, November 02, 2007

Week 9 Can you hear that yelp yelp yelp, it is the public collectivly kicking their dogs.

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Week 7 1-2-0 ATS. 0-0 ML -1 unit
Week 8 3-0-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 9 units
Season = +16.25 units

So far so good with a big week 8 in the books. I've been on a tear since week 3, but the biggest prize might be after the super bowl. I have HUGE nfl futures on the Philadelphia Eagles (35/1) and the New England Patriots at (12/1 and 10/1).

This week I will be going out of town, and I believe this is an excellent week to fade the public. Can you hear that yelp yelp yelp, it is the public collectivly kicking their dogs on Sunday.

Week 9 Card
Pats @ Colts +6 ( 3 unit)
Deadskins @ Jets +4 ( 1 unit)
SD @ Vikings +7 ( 1 unit)
Dallas @ Eagles +3 (+115)( 1 unit)
Pack @ Chiefs -2 ( 1 unit)

All are fades of the public
Pats 60%
Deadskins 75%
San Diego 78%
Dallas 72%
Pack 65%

Pats/Colts- I don't even care if I lose this bet as it is a hedge for my Heavy Patriots SB futures. I do think people are underestimating the colts at home as they are a much better team in the RCA dome. They haven't lost at home in years. 6 points is a lot of points for a team that doesn't lose at home. The Patriots are a great team no doubt, but all this "best team ever" talk could be hushed by the best quarterback ever this sunday. Ideally I'd want the Pats to win by 5 or less so that they can win homefield advantage and I can win this wager.

Deadskins/Jets - I think the Jets stink, but they probably lose this game by 3 or less. Two boring conservative offenses means a close game, maybe with a backdoor cover at the end. The public is pounding the redskins as they expect a "bounce back" after last weeks thrashing. Hopefully Mangini can take of of what Bellicheck did with the 3-4 and be effective against the Redskins. The Redskins would be wise to attack the Jets run D all day long.

SD @ Minny- Trust me, I wouldn't want to bet on Tavaras Jackson, but nearly 80% of the public is on the Chargers. This wouldn't classify as a west cost team traveling east for a 1pm start ( not entirely at least), but this is more of a fade on San Diego than a play on the Vikings. The Vikings don't really lose games by more than 7 ( they lost one by 9). All this talk of San Diego as a sleeping Giant waking up could regress back to the mean this week against a decent defense on an eastern road trip.

Dal/Philly - I was high on Philly coming into this year and I think they are a team that could come back and make this year into something. They have had some heart breaking losses and they are better than they are. Mcnabb is looking healthier ( and he is the heart of that team that makes it all work), Dawkins should be back, but the other piece that hurt them was the loss of LJ Smith. I can't tell you how important a tight end is in a West Coast offense. Especially for a Philly team that doesn't have a super star wide receiver. Andy Reids teams generally play better as the year goes on, and I would NOT could Philly out just yet. I really like the Colts/Eagles to win outright more than the Jets/Minny ( which seem like good situational plays). Here we have a dog, at home, on monday night, against a divisional rival.

Pack/Kc - This isn't as much of a fade the public play as the others, but I love this matchup. Green Bay is a passing dominant team coming into arrowhead against a good pass defensive team. The Chiefs have actually won 4 of their last 5 games, and Green Bay is coming off a short week against a non conference opponent. If there is EVER a game where Brett Favre is going to throw picks, it is in Arrowhead against a solid pass D, with Jared Allen/Tamba Hali in his face and Surtain and Law in coverage. This game should be lower scoring with the Herm Edwards offense, and I do like the Chiefs to pull it out.

Good luck and make some money.

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