Friday, October 12, 2007

Week 6, 5-2 ATS +12 units the past 3 weeks.

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATs, 0-0 ML +2 units
Season = +1.25 units

I've been 5-2-1 ATS, 1-0 ML for +12 units the past 3 weeks. I got destroyed with Philly the first couple of weeks, but have settled down since then. I felt bad after Buffalo two weeks ago but otherwise it was looking real good.

Week 6 Card
Cincy @ KC +4 ( bet ed) 3 units (Sucker bet)
St. Louis @ Baltimore -9.5 (Bet Ed) 2 units
New England -6 @ Dallas (bodog) 2 units
Tennessee +3 @ Tampa Bay (bodog) 1 unit
Washington @ Green Bay -3 (bodog)1 unit
New York Giants @ Atlanta( units depending on how sunday goes)

Marvin Lewis is an overrated defensive coach, with a stud quarterback/offense. If he didn't have Carson Palmer bailing him out, he would have been fired years ago.

The Bengals defense is giving up a whopping 5.3 ypc run ( 153 game)7.1 yp pass (251 game)the defense actually gets worse on the road giving up 6 yards per run.

If you are Larry Johnson, you have to be licking your chops against that Bengals run defense. He has zero touchdowns on the year thus far, and often times when you are matched up against such inferior competition, you are just licking your chops expecting a big day. I'd say that Johnson is an excellent fantasy start, and I think he will have 100+ yards and 2 touchdowns.

Herm Edwards likes to run the boring, conservative, mistake free offense, and that might be all he needs against these Bengals. I am sure they would be happy just getting 5 yards a pop and moving the chains.

On the other side of the ball, you have Carson Palmer and his dynamic offense. The Bengals have been starting a 3rd down scat back as Rudi Johnson has been hurt, but the Bengals strength is passing the ball.

I think the Chiefs defense has gone from terrible a few years ago, to not so bad today. I even think they looked alright at home. The Chiefs Defense only gives up 173 passing yards per game which is pretty good. They have 2 of the best corners in the game with Law and Surtain, and they have 2 good defensive ends in Allen and Hali. You put that defense in front of one of the best home field advantages in sports, and they are even better against the pass. Jared Allen owned big Bryant Mckinnie a few weeks ago, and Tamba Hali is a freak of nature on the other side. Playing in KC is real hard for the opponents tackles as far as the snap count goes. It gives those Chiefs ends an extra advantage, and you have to figure that Palmer will be passing a lot, and calling a lot of audiles against that noise.

The public loves offense and is pounding the Bengals because they feel they are "due" for a win. I like the fact that KC has kept their games pretty close, they are better at home, and they they will try and run that conservative offense that will be efficient ( not turn the ball over), and keep Carson Palmer off the field. On the other side of the ball, I think the Chiefs defense matches up well with the Bengals ( good pass D vs good Passing O), and they are more likely to force turnovers. Teams that win the turnover battle win games. I also like the fact that I got this line at +4. Call it a sucker bet, and let this home dog bark LOUD. 100 yards and 2 TD for Larry Johnson.
St. Louis has been a horrible team this year that has lost every single game. They were off when they were healthy, and then they got hurt. They stunk when they were hurt, and now they are on the road.

I am not going to get as in depth about this game, but there are different blowouts, and this would be the more defense/turnover induced blowout. Gus Ferotte and Brian Lenoard are up against a rough Ravens defense. The Rams are only averaging 5 points per game on the road and they are turnover prone vs the Baltimore head hunters. Just look at the Ravens defense after an interception or fumble recovery, they aren't just happy to get the ball, they players block and form a cartel to lead the playmaker to the end zone.

The Rams defense isn't very good either. You know, I think the Rams have some decent players with Glover, Little, Carriker, Weatherspoon, but the reason why they have problems is that they just aren't very good tacklers. The Rams are giving up 4.5 per run ( 145 yards per game) and you have to like that if you are Willis Mcghee.

Once again, I think if you are Baltimore this is more of the type of game where you play your game, and let the Rams poor tackling beat themselves. The Ravens don't have to get "cute" on offense, but just run your normal offense and let the Rams beat themselves. The offense should be getting good field position and I wouldn't be surpised if the Ravens surpassed their season high point total of 26. Sometimes when a mediocre offense plays a bad defense they want to run the score up more, and Brian Billeck certainly has the ego. I really don't like betting on the egotistical Brian Billeck, but this is a bet on the Ravens defense. I also like the fact that these teams are out of conference foes ( Ravens at home), which means it comes more down to talent, and it's less about knowing your divisional opponent. Ravens in a route.
I Like the Patriots in the game many are calling the mini super bowl. Dallas has exceeded all expectations, while the Patriots have beat everybody like they were expected too.

The Patriots have been a perfect 5-0 ATS, and have won every single game in blowout fashion of 17 points or more. Dallas has somewhat surprised people with a 5-0 record and I see them losing this one.

I correctly predicted this spread at 6, and I will correctly pick the Patriots to win and cover.

The Patriots look like a super bowl champion team with at least a 14-2 record ( some think they will go undefeated). If it weren't for my very heavy NFL futures on the Pats, I would probably play this higher. I will admit that I am surprised at how fast BB and Tom Brady have integrated a whole new crop of receivers into that offense with so many reads. You have to really credit Randy Moss and Wes Welker with being smart players, and Stallworth with playing in the Eagles West coast offense last year. You would have maybe expected interceptions or bad plays based on guys running the wrong routes, but not with these guys. Their coach in the sweat shirt has everybody ready and focused... The Patriots are all about execution.

Dallas had trouble with Buffalo last week and they will certainly be pumped for this game, but will that be enough?I see the Patriots following their format of being aggressive early, building a lead throwing the ball, and then trying to play those 2 TE big sets and shorten the game and try and force turnovers. You also can't ignore the coaching advantage the Patriots have. In fact, I'd give the patriots the edge in offense, defense, coaching, and maybe even special teams. The Cowboys will be playing at home, but the Patriots are a real good road team that doesn't seem to lose focus on the road. I know the Points pread seems a little high, but a little bit of it can be negated by the predicted high total. The Patriots have won every game by 17, and I don't think it would be too much of a stretch to see them only win by 7 or more. The Patriots are the quality team that you either bet on, or don't bet the game at all.
Vince Young and the Titans have been a covering machine at 13-3 in their last 16 ATS. Vince Young has been everything a mobile quarterback " should be", and he seems to thrive in underdog roles. I had a long write up about Vince Young and I do like watching him and believe he is a strong leader that makes his teammates better.

The other underrated part about the Titans is that their defense has quietly improved a lot too. I'd at least partially credit that to one of best coaches in the game ( Jeff Fisher). The Titans are only giving up 71 Yards per game on the ground (3.7 per run), and just over 200 per game passing ( under 6 yards per pass).

I do believe in Jeff Garcia as a quarterback, but he will be handing off to the teams 3rd string running back, and playing behind a poor offensive line. Even a smart quarterback like Garcia playing in a west coast offense will still have trouble with that weak offensive line.I see this as a low scoring game, and I see the Titans as a live dog getting 3 points.
Green Bay is coming off that tough loss against the Bears on National TV and is looking to get back on track. I would expect the Pack to go over ball security so that they won't turn the ball over so much ( and the Redskins aren't big in take aways). The Packers shot themselves in the foot with all those turnovers against the Bears.

The Redskins played against a similar offense in the Eagles and held them to 13 points, but Mcnabb was really off that game, and the Eagles had the ball in the Red zone 5 times and didn't score 1 touchdown. You have to give the Redskins some credit for that, but you also have to at least partially blame Mcnabb for missing open receivers. The Eagles " could have" potentially had 35 points in that game, but instead only had 13.

It looked like the Redskins played a lot of man coverage that game, which tends to be more feast/famine. The Redskins back 7 isn't that bad, but their problem lies in their pass rush.

The Redskins pass rush was ok last week, because
1) The Lions don't really have a run attack
2) The Lions run deeper routes that take more time to develop
3) The Redskins were lining their defensive tackles up in the C gap, to rush the passer, and ignoring the run.... but Mike Martz still didn't try and run, even the redskins were daring them to run right up the gut.

I give Green Bay an advantage of having the Eagle game tape to see how the Redskins respond in certain situations. Also throw in the fact that their leader ( Marcus Washington is out, and Phillip Daniels probably is too). I don't think Daniels is any good, but he just makes them one player less deep on what could be an unseasonably warm sunday.

I think Jason Campbell is way overrated from his performance against the Lions. He was throwing screens and a whole bunch of passes 5 yards and under in the flats which up his completion percentage. Mark Brunell had a game against Houston last year where he hit 26 straight completions of dinks and dunks.

I guess I counted 4 balls that Jason completed past 10 yards, and two of them were still low risk throws off of play action to wide open Redskins. Sure his numbers looked great, but when you throw a 1 yard slant to Antwain Randel El and he picks up 37 yards, then how much credit should that quarterback really get? I don't see Jason Campbell as a terrible awful player, but I really see Joe Gibbs trying to keep the training wheels on and run that "Horizontal offense" where it doesn't require a lot of risky throws downfield. Gibbs would rather try and win games with his power rushing attack, and defense.

The Packers are also a team that runs a lot of man/man coverage on defense. They have 2 good corners in Woodson and Harris, and they will be matched up against two gimpy injured redskins in Randel El and Moss. I would expect the Redskins to continue to run that Horizontal offense with lots of short throws to the backs in the flat, and tight end Cooley. If Green Bay can keep the Redskins rushing at bay, they could get a lot of 3 and outs with those dump off on 3rd and long. The Packers are giving up 4 YPC on defense, but only 2.9 YPC at home. Washington also has to cope with those huge losses on the O-Line of Jansen and Thomas.

Picking a 3 point spread is basically picking who is going to win the game. I see Green Bay getting it done at home after that awful loss to the Bears where they turned the ball over. Washington hasn't been good at forcing turnovers, and the Redskins offense will be facing better competition this week.
Minny @ Chicago - The line should be lower, but I really want to fade Tavaras Jackson, but I don't want to play the Bears as favorites after that big SNF win as dogs. I think Minnys D is aight too.
Houston @ Jax - I think Jax is the better team, but Houston isn't bad on offense or defense and that is a lot of points.
Philly @ Jets - Jets are a home dog, and the public loves Philly. Philly should route the horrible Jets, but I like the games I played better.
Car @ Zona - I'd love to fade David Carr, and Zonas defense is underrated, and their offense can actually run the ball this year, but Warner is turnover prone.

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