Friday, October 05, 2007

Week 5, 5 finger discount

Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 +7 units
Season = -.75 units

Congrats to all who rode me week 4, and it sucks for those who faded me.

Week 5 card
Arizona -3 @ St. Louis ( 1 unit)(beted)
NY Jets @ NY Giants -3 ( 1 unit)(beted)
Detroit @ Deadskins -3 ( bought hook) 1 unit

Zona is 4-0 ATS and certainly a better team than people think. I was going to ride them last week against the Steelers as a home dog, but I tried to once again " keep it simple stupid".
The Rams are 0-4 and have major injuries on offense. I have been watching these teams all year, and the rams are in trouble.

Even when Bulger was in there, the Rams didn't look like the Rams. They weren't getting much on the ground, they weren't in good sync passing the ball ( as far as timing goes), it just looked ugly. Now you take away a dominant LT in Pace, Bulger at QB, Jackson at RB, and Bruce is hurt and might not play. Do you really want to bet on Gus Ferrit ( the guy who injures himself) and a rookie RB from Rutgers? In Rams first game of the year against Carolina, they were still pretty close late in the game, but the fans just gave up on that team. The Rams defense isn't very good, and the offense is trying out new unproven bodies.

The reason why this line is +3.5 at many places, is because the books think that the rams are "due" for a better performance, not because they think this will be a FG game or anything. If you like the Rams in this spot, take them ML.

Detroit at Deadskins -3.
I think the Deadskins win this game due to turnovers. If you were to pull up the Lions TO differential, they are listed as (+1), but they really got 4 cheap turnovers against that terrible quarterback Tavaras Jackson in Minnesota. I mean, the turd was tossing out pop flies to the Lions defenders that you usually don't see at the pro level. The Lions also got some picks from Brian Greasy in his first start in years last week. So the Lions were fortunate enough to find 7 turnovers on the weak links of NFL Quarterbacks.

Lions 13 take aways ( over inflated thanks to Tavaras and Greasy)
Lions 12 give aways and I do see that as a repeatable thing.

Joe Gibbs has been playing that whole boring, conservative Martyball/Herm Edwards football. He has a young flawed quarterback in Jason Campbell, and he has taken the ball out of his hands as much as he could by turning his offense into a bunch of screen passes to his runningbacks, with that occasional deep ball thrown down field.

Above average quarterbacks will carve this lions defense apart, but Jason isn't that guy. He is a boring Trent Dilfer-like quarterback that the "local" fans in DC love. Joe Gibbs will hide jason with an entire offense centered on passes 10 yards and shorter, while he tries to attack with his running backs.

You would figure that the Lions move the ball in this game, while washington runs that boring conservative offense that waits for you to make mistakes. This is more of a fade on the Lions than a play on washington. Gibbs will try and keep it close and let that defense gambel a little bit on turnovers.

Jets at Gints.
I really wanted to get into a long lesson about "home field advantage" before capping this game. Home field isn't as much about how far you travel or how many fans you have in the stands, but it is about "focus".

For the first time ever, those Jets will be in the VISITORS locker room, standing on the other side of the field, with the endzone painted for the Giants. If the Jets weren't the 2nd class team of NY in the first place, they will certainly be sunday. I know that this isn't your typical road game, but it is not like they are playing a "real" home game.

When you play a home game, you usually sleep in your own bed ( not a hotel bed), you are used to the weather, you don't have to travel, you don't have a million other things to worry about. You know the field, the background, the stands, and everything. Visitors have all sorts of other things to focus on that are not even related to the play the coach calls. Some people can win on the road, some people have trouble focusing.

I know the public like the Giants in this one, but the public isn't always wrong. The Giants have an offense and they are working out their kinks on defense.

Pennys arm doesn't scare anybody, and if the Giants don't have a threat to honor downfield ( like the Washington game), they can cover that more conservative offense the Jets run ( and redskins ran).

The Jets run defense isn't that great, which is a great time for that big bowling ball Brandon Jacobs to potentially come back for the G-Unit.

The Giants are 2-2, with their only two losses against undefeated teams. The Blue New York team will clearly be the better team on the field, and they will treat their pesky little brother green team as such.

I am headed out of town for the weekend, but I am going to hopefully get back for the 4pm games to maybe add some plays. Good luck.

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