Thursday, December 07, 2006

Thursday night play

Pittsburgh -7 ( 2 units)

Every time a new QB starts to play, the ESPN hype machine is at work. Remember when Rex Grossman got hurt last year and Kyle Orton got to play? Every ESPN analyst was sure to say that " Orton is a sleeper, the kid can play". Everybody liked Kyle Orton last year, and now everybody is sure to call Derek Anderson a sleeper.

They try and compare Anderson ( who has been on the bench), to Tony Romo ( who was been on the bench). Let me be first to tell you that a ROMO situation is rare, and NOT the norm. If a guy is on the bench, there is usually a reason.

The Browns have been fighting in their games, and covering spreads, but now they have a new QB starting under the big lights at Pittsburgh. Let me remind you that Pittsburgh was real stingy to opponent QB's last year. I believe opposing QB's had the lowest QB rating at Heinz last year.

The perception on the steelers is that they are NOT the team they were last year ( which is true). People who are on cleveland tonight know the steelers are not who they were, Hines Ward is out, Palamalou and Clarck ( both safeties are out). They also want to roll the dice on this Anderson kid and a Cleveland team that won last week.

The Steelers are MUCH better at home than on the road. They play well on Nationally televised games, and they are facing a rookie QB.

7 is a super key number. Everybody loved a 3 point spread, but after 3 I believe that 7, 1, 4, 6 are the next best numbers. The reason why 7 is so key is because it is one possession. Coaches want to take the ability for the other team to win away. If your up 7, and there is a hard choice to either kick the FG, or go for it, the coach will kick to go up by 2 scores.

Tonight, I see Cleveland having a hard time running the ball, and I don't see Derek Anderson winning the game. He will come back down to earth.

In life people FEAR the unknown. In football, people LOVE the unknown. The media went on and on last week about how Jay Cutler was going to be a huge upgrade over Jake Plummer. Now Cutler may well turn out to be that upgrade, but he wasn't last week.

The line opened at -9 because somebody else thought the steelers would win by Double Digits as well. The line was at -7.5 and this morning I saw -7 at Pinny and took it. Get the -7 point line, and see me at the pay out window.

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