Saturday, December 09, 2006

Week 14

The Card for week 14
Cleveland @ Pitt -7 (2 units) WON
New England -3 @ Miami ( 2 units)
Oakland +10.5 @ Cincy ( 1 unit)
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay +3 ( 1 unit)
Tennesse @ Houston -1 ( 1 units) ( SUCKER BET)

Last week was a good week to fade the public. Those public dogs really barked back at betters. We probably won't see the public taking such a beating, but I want to bet with the books this week. I usually try and " just win baby", but this week I took a little bit more mechanical approach of taking 3 very unpopular plays ( Oakland, Tampa, and Houston). The public is also very heavy on Seattle, and heavy on Indy. I don't have much of an opinion on the Seattle/ Cards game, and I would actually lean Indy over jacksonville but as of right now I am not touching that game.

Raiders @ Cincy
Last week the Raiders held the Texans to -5 yards passing but lost. The Faiders lost because they committed 6 turnovers, and good teams can't win with 5 turnovers nevermind the Raiders. Last week I pointed out that Oakland has been losing... but not by much. The Raiders were underdogs in their last 7 contests but COVERED 6 of them. That means while the Raiders were losing, Raiders betters cashed in 6 outta 7 weeks. Last week was the first week the Raiders were favorites in their entire season, and they Shit the bed. Some teams play hungry in the role of the dog, some teams fall flat on their faces when they are favorites. This week the Raiders are 11 point underdogs, and have only lost by >11 twice in their last 10 games. Many of those Raider losses have been by 3-7 points, and I think they can cover this one.

The Bungles lost 5 out of 6 before this recent 3 game win streak. The Bengals have not been 11 point favorites YET this season, and the last time they were favored by greater than 3.5 points was when New England destroyed the 5 and a half point favored Bungles.

I think people really think the Bengals are back, and the books are making them pay a heavy premium for that perception. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the Bengals offense, but their suspect D has been playing better recently. I think Oakland can cover this game. If the Bengals get a lead, there is no reason to play aggressive offense. The Raiders defense is not bad, and if the Bengals limit themselves to hand offs and running out the lead it will favor Raiders backers. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders horrible offense showed some signs of life recently despite the turnovers. I think they can get some points against that suspect D. I love the fact that the public is pounding the Bengals, and I will gladly take the Raiders who have been an underdog covering machine.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Atlanta had lost 4 games in a row until they beat a bad Washington team last week. I think Vegas is making Atlanta Falcons betters pay a premium for that win last week, and because Atlanta is in a playoff battle.
These teams played in Week 2, and Atlanta won 14-3. Chris Simms turned the ball over 3 times and the Bucs lost. Mike Vick had Under 100 yards passing and a pick of his own. Before that Atlanta win, the Bucs won the last 3 meetings with Simms and Brian Griese beating Mike Vick.
The Value I see in the Bucs is the home field. Tampa is 0-6 on the road, but 3-3 at home. Their last home games were...
Win vs Washington
17 pt loss to New Orleans
Win vs philly
Win vs Cincy
2 point loss to Carolina
Tampa comes home after 4/6 road games, and 2 road games in a row. They come back home to Tampa where they play much better.
Mike Vick has a sore hamstring, which should force him to PASS more. The Bucs D certainly took a step back from last years ranking, but I think they can still play.
The Line opened at Bucs +1, but the public are pounding the Falcons, gimme Tampa +3 ( +114 juice)
Tennessee @ Houston ( sucker bet)
The Titans are a dog that won outright at home, that is favored on the road. That is a horrible situation for a team. Last week they won as 7.5 point underdogs, and now they are favored by 1 point at Bodog.
The public is pounding this game! The NFL network keeps replaying the game from last week, and the fans are buying into the Vince Young Hype. I think ESPN has futures in Vince Young winning rookie of the year or something! Houston opened up as a 3 favorite, but now they are a 1 point dog!
Houston has played 5 out of their last 6 games on the road! Their last 3 home games were a loss to Buffalo ( that they should have won), they beat Jacksonville by 20, and they beat Miami.
Vince Young may get all the credit in the world for their last 3 wins, but he beat a Mcnabbless Eagles team, and injury plagued Giants defense, and a BAD Indy defense.
There is a big difference between playing against soft defenses with a 20 point lead, and playing teams in a close battle. I want to see how the Titans do now that they are actually favored. Vince Young will have to play Quarterback this week, and he won't have the advantage of playing against Prevent defenses for the last 30 minutes of the game.
These teams faced off earlier in the year in Tennessee...
- Sage Rosenfels threw 3 touchdown passes in relief of David Carr who was taken out injured
- Walli Lundy rushed for over 100 yards
- Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels each caught 9 balls for a combined 3 Tds
- Vince Young was held to 7/15 for 87 passing yards
- None of the Titans rushed for more than 50 yards
- Mario Williams had a sack
- The Texans had 6 turnovers and LOST
I believe Houston can win this game at home where they play better. Without all those turnovers, they would have won last time. The Public are pounding this game like there is no tomorrow.
Pats @ Miami
The Pats only give up an average of 82 rushing yards ( 3.4 per carry) per game on defense. Now we must factor in that Ronnie Brown is OUT, and his backup, Sammy Morris is probable with a sprained ankle. Miami does NOT have a good offensive line to begin with, and this puts a lot of pressure on Joey's shoulders.
I think people have that turkey day win for Miami fresh in their minds, and that 4 game win streak. Before Miami's 4 game win streak, they had a 4 game losing streak.
New England on the other hand has won 7 of their last 9, and I believe they are polishing up for the playoffs. Last year Miami beat New England in the meaningless last game of the season, but New England has owned them for 6 of the prior last 7.
New England is 6-0 on the road, and I believe they are a mentally focused team that isn't phased on the road. The pats actually only give up 2.9 rushing yards against on the road ( even better than home)! If you want to purchase Futures on the Pats, I believe +900 is more than fair value. You will be buying good ownership/ GM. One of the top 3 coaches. The best or second best quarterback. A solid defense. At LEAST 1 Home game in cold New England. A team that is undefeated on the road, and that has already won 3 Superbowl's. I bought futures at +600, but I really like the deal at +900. The Superbowl is on the road, and the pats are not phased on the road.
The public seems to agree on the Pats, but the public can't lose ALL of their games.

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