Saturday, December 23, 2006


First of all, I am sick of people plagiarizing my picks, and people talking trash on message boards. Nobody gets lucky and picks 8 contrarian plays in a row. You don't pick the opposite of the easiest game of the week and win 8 in a row. You don't double your money 2 years in a row based on LUCK ( The statistical chances are slim to none of doing that). Let me also remind you that a professional will hit somewhere around 60%. If you don't like me, fine, but don't say that I was "lucky" to go 8-0 or lucky to double my money the past 2 years.

Thursday night I got back from the Gym after the action started. I knew everybody wanted to bet on Favre in his last home game, so I was already looking the other way. The fact that the public pounded GB was another reason to take Minnesota. If BJ started it would have been a lock, because I didn't want to be on Tavas Jackson ( a rookie). When I came back from the Gym the score was 3-0, and the Vikings were +6.5 on live betting at even money... I placed a half unit and won. I will not count that on my standings because it was not posted.

I don't see how Chris Collinsworth, Deion Sanders and everybody else at the NFL Network can hype up Tavaras Jackson. The only passes I saw him complete were 2 yard dump offs. The guy was 10-20 for 50 yards and 1 interception!

The thing that really got me was how they kept on talking about how "mobile" Jackson was. That just shows that discrimination and "moneyball ethics" lives on. In Moneyball, Michael Lewis points out how Billy Beane exploits discrimination. He tries to quantify his work and look at REAL statistics. The old school of baseball will look at a guy and talk about how he "looks like a slugger".

As fast as Jackson looks, he only ran a 4.8 at the combine. A 4.8 isn't slow, but consider that many defensive ends can run 4.5s and even some defensive ends ( Courney Brown ran a 4.4 and weighed 280 lbs). My point is that the announcer " assumed" Jackson was some fast mobile quarterback. Deion Sanders told him to " do what you do best" and get out of the pocket. Kyle Bollier ran I believe a 4.6 and I don't see the announcers talking about his speed and athleticism. It just shows how much " looks" and perception play into sports.

I can't believe Jackson was a 2nd round pick ( out of a D2 school), and I can't believe the announcers were sucking him off after a 50 yard and 1 interception performance. If Derek Anderson was 10-20 for 50 yards, Deion and everybody else would be making fun of him.... but a "mobile" Tavaras Jackson was 10-20 for 50 yards and a pick and people like Chris Collinworth were talking about how impressed they were with him and how the Vikings need to stick with him.

If Brad Johnson had 50 yards, they would be talking about how they should pull him. It just shows the discrimination exists. I guarantee you if the New York Giants fat boy Jared Lorenzon had that performance, they would be making fun of old tubby tubby.

Enough of the rant, here is the pick.

Oakland Raiders +7 ( call them my sucker bet as well)( 2 units)

The line is already at +7.5 at Bodog, and +8 at another book. I will wait until before kickoff and place 2 units on the spread and hopefully get it at 8.

Good things going for the raiders...
Home dog, Dog on National TV, Rivalry game, and the public is pounding the Cheifs . The Cheifs are also fighting for their playoff lives and I love fading the "must win for playoffs" situation. The public are pounding and pounding the Cheifs which creates solid value for the Raiders.

Warren Buffet says, " Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful while others are greedy".

I am looking at blindly taking all of the home dogs this weekend. and starting it off with the Raiders tonight!

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