Saturday, December 30, 2006

Week 17

You will have to believe that last week I bet the Jets when Cleo Lemon was tossed into the lineup for Miami. It canceled out my Fins bet.

Cleo Lemon is complete and utter garbage. He was an instant fade of my bet when I heard he was coming into the game for a "spark". His stats weren't bad, but what do you expect for a guy dumping the ball off ( he wasn't even very good at that). One of his first passes was thrown right to a New York Jet but was dropped.

This week I am liking the Steelers, Chiefs, Pats, Colts, Rams and Cowboys. In General at this time of the year I think the public goes ape shit all over the possible playoff teams that " need to win to get in". The public will pound a team like the Jets or Bengals because they " need to win to get in". I generally like to fade whatever the public does. You can probably blindly fade that situation and make money.

Here are some angles I like this week...

Steelers - 6 points is a lot against a Bengals team that is pretty much done. I am not sure the Jets cover 13 on the Raiders, but they really SHOULD beat the second worst team in football at home. That means the Bengals should be OUT, and they are laying 6 points is a pretty big rivalry. I think the Steelers can win outright, and getting 6 is gravy.
Chiefs - The Chiefs at home in December won 19 games in a row before the Ravens beat them a few weeks ago. This is almost 10 years, with different players, coaches and even opponents. The one constant is the crazy fans and good football tradition. If it weren't for LT, ESPN would be touting LJ. I also still believe in Trent Green. The Chiefs are also playing at home for the first time since Lamar Hunt died, look for some emotion from the Chiefs.

I however do NOT believe in David Garrard. He single hand idly lost the game against the Titans with 3 turnovers that were instantly 21 points. Bone headed would be an understatement.

As much as I don't like Garrard, I still think he is better than Byron Leftwhich. In the situation of Mobility vs pocket passing I will pretty much always side with the better passer ( whoever that may be). In this case I side with Garrard. All Byron really does is just dump balls off, and throw the occasional jump ball to one of his tall receivers. If all he is going to do is just manage a game like that, you may as well have Garrard ( who can do all of that AND run).

Pats- I like the Pats at the end of the year, and I think this is one of the better defenses Vince Young will have played against. So far he has had but average numbers against these crappy defenses... Colts, Texans, injured Giants, Bills, and the Eagles when they were slumping. When VY played Jacksonville his Titans didn't even score an offensive touchdown, but they won because of David Garrard and his mistakes. Brady won't make those terrible mistakes.

Brady should be able to move the Pats on offense, and Young may be exciting, but he is over matched. Give me the better team and the 3 points.

Colts- The Colts are still undefeated at home, and the Fins still aren't a good road team. I am aware the Fins can play D, but Peyton can put up more points. I am really not worried about the colts scoring points.

I think Cleo Lemon is complete and utter garbage, and it is a shame that I have to watch him play. I don't even think "Mrs. Cleo" would start for many top 15 college teams. If Ronnie were completely healthy, the fins could just hand the ball off and score points. I don't know if the Dolphins run game alone will be enough. The Colts should be able outscore Miami by more than a TD and FG.

Rams- It seems a lot of people are pounding the Rams at -2.5.

Once again we have another hyped up mobile quarterback in Tavaras Jackson. Do those 23 rushing yards REALLY add another dimension to those 50 passing yards he had? His team scored 3 offensive points, yet everybody is talking about how his mobility really adds a lot to that Viking offense. Fred Smoot plays corner back and scored more points than Terrible Tavarias.

I even question the guys mobility. Tavaras ran a 4.8 in the combine and yet they still act like the guy is a Jr. Vince Young. How come JP Losman runs a 4.6 or David Carr runs a 4.6 but we aren't talking about how mobile THOSE guys are.

Bulger, Jackson, Holt, and Bruce are clearly the better offense. The Rams are a bad team on the road, but being on the road means playing outside. Against the Vikings a road game means it is still on the carpet.

I wonder why the spread is -2.5 and the only reason I see is because of the Vikings D. I think the odds makers are baiting people to take the Rams because they see the Rams LOSING this game as opposed to the Vikings winning this game. The Vikings have a stout run D, and they have a ball hawk corner back in Antoine Winfield that match up against the Rams. I still lean St. Louie but this game could be a sucker bet.

Dallas is heavy favorites of 13 points but have struggled of late. Romosexual came back down to earth. People thought I was crazy when I said I wouldn't put him in the probowl, but no who is laughing? I agreed with Parcells in that the smily Romo was really dodging bullets. He also had a few extra TD passes inside the 5 yard line that padded his QB rating and stats as well. In the future the boys will probably just hand the ball off to their ATM ( automatic touchdown machine) in Marion Barber.

I think the Lions are the worst overall team in the NFL. Oakland has the worst offense by far ( but an average to decent D). The Lions are just bad all around. The Lions are bad enough to lose this game and help Dallas get back on track. I see a blowout and the Lions to go win less on the road this season. Dallas is the kind of team that loves to pile on the points against trash teams.

My biggest bets will probably be the Chiefs and Pats. The Chiefs Line is at -1 right now, and the Pats are underdogs. Both just need to win outright. I think I will go with smaller bets on the Steelers, colts and Cowboys, but we shall see.

I think I will try and do live betting for the Saturday night game so shoot me an email if you want to bet with me. If you send me your phone number through email, I can even call you each commercial break I make a bet.

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