Saturday, December 01, 2007
Recap
Week 1 3-3-1 ATS, 0-0 ML, -4.75 units
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Week 7 1-2-0 ATS. 0-0 ML -1 unit
Week 8 3-0-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 9 units
Week 9 3-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 10 5-2-0 ATS, 0-1 ML +4 units
Week 11 4-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 3 units
Week 12 3-8-0 ATS, 0-0 ML -8 units
Season = +17.25 units
Pending Futures:
Eagles to win SB 42, 12.5 units to win 450 Units ( 35/1 odds)
Patriots to win SB 42, 2.5 units to win 32.5 Units ( 12/1 odds)
Patriots to win SB 42, 11 units to win to win 110 Units ( 10/1 odds)
http://pfootball.blogspot.com/2007_02_01_archive.html
Week 12 Recap
Green Bay -3.5 @ Detroit ( 1 unit) WIN
Jets @ Dallas -13 ( 1 unit) WIN
Indy @ Atlanta +13 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Minny @ New York Giants -7 ( 2 units) LOSS
Deadskins +3 @ Bucs ( 2 units) LOSS
49ers @ Arizona -10 ( 2 units, bought half point) LOSS
ADD: Tennesse -1.5 2nd half ( 1 unit) -105 LOSS
ADD: Houston Pick'em 2nd half ( 1 unit) +105 LOSS
ADD: New York Giants -7.5 2nd half ( 1 unit) LOSS
ADD: Deadskins -.5 2nd half ( 1 unit) WIN
ADD New England Patriots -24 for (1 unit) LOSS
Total = 3-8 ATS for -8 units
Week 12 was my worst week as far as winning percentage and Units lost. The bright side is that I was playing with house money while the downside is that I wiped away about 1/3 of this seasons gains. The important thing to remember is that if you have been doing this long enough, you are going to have bad weeks from time to time. I was only losing in increments of 1 and 2 units which cushioned my off week. Money management should always be something in the back of your mind and even though I lost this battle, I am still winning the war. This week I also added my two huge NFL futures plays to my picks which illustrate the huge opportunity to make money off the Pats.
Recaps
Skins/Bucs
- Is a direct snap to Clinton Portis always a run left?
- Jason Campbell with the fumble, it seems like he is good for at least 1 per game. He seems to be mechanical in his delivery and it reminds me of Byron Leftwhich although he isn't nearly as slow as Byron ( but I get that same feel). Check out the snap or quick delivery of say a Tony Romo or even Jeff Garcia in this game, and then look at the mechanical delivery of Campbell.
- Joe Gibbs wastes a challenge on a wish.
- There was a key 4th and 1 play at the Bucs Goal line where in the huddle I noticed Jason Campbell tapped Clinton Portis on the helmet. The significance of that was that Portis was the one who got the ball on 4th and 1, and he was stuffed. Did Campbell tip the play off so that the Bucs could easily tee off on Portis?
- Washington had a lot of turnovers. How come when Eli Manning throws 4 picks and the Giants lose, people question his worth, but Jason Campbell had 3 turnovers this game ( including 2 key 4th quarter interceptions) and he gets a pass? Eli could have 4 turnovers and people talk about how he lost the game, but Campbell have 3 turnovers and people talk about how "well" he played? Media Bias right there.
- Jason Campbell has failed to lead his team down the field for the game winning score in each of their last 3 games, and he even failed 6 times ( because of 2 chances in each game). How come people don't call him a choke artist?
Giants/Vikings
- On the second play of the game, the Giants had 8 in the box and the Vikings ran a play action pass. Tavaras Jackson ran a terrible play fake, but the Vikings had Sidney Rice 1 on 1 with Aaron Ross on the outside and got a 60 yard touchdown. I'd also like to point out that the sun was real bright on that side of the field, and Ross possibly lost the ball.
- Tavaras Jackson fumbles on a 3rd down sack by Osi but the ball fell forward and the Vikings got a 1st down. How often does a sack/fumble result in a 1st down?
- Sinorice Moss drops a pass on 3rd and 5 and the Giants for for it on 4th down and don't get it. Amani Toomer ran the jet route instead of running the drag ( did he run the wrong route?) The Giants looked out of sync and it's not all Eli's fault.
- The Giants ran a lot of 8 man fronts on defense, but the Vikings kept running. Childress probably didn't want Jackson throwing the ball too often even if running the ball meant unfavorable 8 man fronts.
- OK, Eli Manning got a lot of criticism for this game, but it was NOT all his fault. The Vikings brought a lot of pressure in this game and the Giants were missing their 1st and 2nd string runners ( and Droughns was ineffective), and Burress was gimpy.
- The Main problems I saw were Pressure, and not being on the same page.
- In this game I saw 6 dropped balls by the Giants which is a little high ( I'd expect in a normal game a team drops maybe 4 or 5 balls). There was one other pass Droughnes might have been able to catch, but it was more of a quick throw due to the pressure right in Eli's face. I also saw 5 passes that Eli threw away due to avoiding a sack ( he was only sacked once). The media also presented the stats that there were 15 hits/hurries. David Diehl also didn't help with 3 penalties.
So Let's recap...
5 Drops
5 throw aways, 1 that was sort of both
plus 15 hits/hurries
ONLY 1 sack
Eli was hurried all day. He had 15 hits/hurries, which led to the 5 throw aways. This is where I have a problem with QB rating. If Eli throws the ball away to avoid a sack, but say Kurt Warner holds onto the ball all 5 times he loses yardage but also doesn't have 0/5 completions added to his QB rating. Not only that but a lot of the drops Eli had were deeper balls and on key downs. The Giants had no threat of a running game with Reuben, and the Vikings teed off on Eli all game. Those problems were NOT all his fault.
He ended up throwing 4 interceptions. Three were his fault, and one ball was tipped at the line at about a 45 degree angle right to a Vikings defender.
I don't understand how Eli could have 4 turnover and be Ryan Leaf, while Jason Campbell could have 3 turnovers and be " a promising young player" after the game. Tony Romo had the 5 pick day in Buffalo, Peyton had his 5 pick game in San Diego, but when Eli throws 4 picks he is the worst player ever.
I can promise you that Eli was playing under tough circumstances. 15 hits/hurries is no joke, and for him to only get sacked once shows that he made a lot of snap quick decisions. Not only that be Reuben Droughns disappeared after the first drive and Eli was stuck in a lot of long yardage situations.
If you can't tell, it pisses me off when people write off Eli, but then hype up a Jason Campbell and his dink and dunk offense and late game turnovers.
Pats/Eagles
- I am surprised with the 3 touchdowns and big stats by AJ Feeley ( even with the 3 picks). It wasn't all dink and dunk yards either. I know people will talk about a controversy in Philly, but Feeley is the backup. I'd say that Feeley is a quality backup, but not starting material for the longer term. He is like that 5th starting pitcher in baseball, he isn't your ace, but he can make some quality starts from time to time. He is too good to be discarded, but some team without a quarterback ( like Miami) shouldn't trade for him ( again).
- What is with the Keith Olberman "worst person in the NFL?" I vote for Keith Olberman as the worst person in the NFL. How tough is it to sit there and second guess everybody and then pick in the Broncos punter? Olberman second guessing everybody fits into that NBC studio well with the king of the charlatans, Chris Collinsworth.
- Tom Brady reminds me of Alex Rodriguez in his work ethic. After A-Rod signed his 252 million dollar contract with the Rangers, some of his friends wanted to party and celebrate but he said that he needed to work even harder now so that he could live up to that contract ( where as most athletes would get fat and happy). Tom Brady has everything going for him but he is still a perfectionist. At this point in time his fans "expect" nothing other than the best. In the Pats/Skins game earlier in the year Brady was yelling at his teammates after a failed series in a game they were winning in blowout fashion. This guy wants to win.
I also remember last year people ( Dan Patrick in particular) were saying the Patriots were "done" etc. or that they were good but not "going to win the championship". Brady said that he was sick and tired of his team being disrespected. Dan Patrick fired back on his show that nobody is disrespecting the Pats, but that they " aren't championship material anymore". That is Exactly disrespecting to Tom Brady. He wants to win every game, score on every play, and dominate his opponent. There is no such thing as second place. He studies, he fights, he rallies and hates to lose. When somebody calls them " just" a playoff team of course he feels disrespected...
Tom Brady is a winner and somebody you want manageing your team.
- The Pats were heavy favorites in this game and with each tick of the clock it gave the Eagles more confidence, and put more pressure on the Patriots. I am impressed again with how cool under pressure Brady was in such a tight game with such high expectations. Those fans would have been stunned/pissed if the Pats lost, and a poised Brady made sure that didn't happen.
Pats/Bills ( 2 weeks ago)
- Losman was picked off early on a ball he never should have thrown ( no surprise). The WR ran a fake and then quit on the route and Randal Gay kept with the play.
- L. Mahroney had his 1st TD of the year which is a surprise considering he is the starting running back for this prolific Pats offense. I do like Lawrence, as he reminds me of a poor mans Steven Jackson with his size, speed, and shiftiness.
- The timing on the Pats safety blitzes just amazes me, they are also showing lots of different looks in their back 7.
- Donte Stallworth had a bad drop. Now with the Pats a drop doesn't matter because then Brady will put the ball where it needs to be on the very next play, but if Stallworth played for the Falcons everybody would talk about how Mike Vick has no receivers and they drop all the balls. If you play for the Pats and drop one, you are fine because you will catch the other dozen or so accurately thrown your way, but when you play for Mike Vick and drop the only good ball thrown at you that is a problem. Not only that, but getting lots of balls thrown your way gets you into a rhythm, while having one bone thrown your way a game makes it harder to focus. Bad quarterbacks always have the excuse of poor receivers, when in fact they are a big part of the equation ( I know this is obvious but it is very important).
- Randy Moss drops a perfect pass and then catches a touchdown on the very next play... in stride with the previous comment.
- Amazing stree ball play where Losman fumbles and then picks the ball up for a 14 yard gain. Fans love those cool 14 yard quarterback rushes, but can this guy make the routine plays? A 14 yard run that Tom Brady couldn't even make might seem like a "bonus", but not being able to make all those throws makes it not even worth it. It's something so obvious but fans just go nuts when they see a mobile quarterback.
- This game looked like a JV team vs the Varsity team. If you look at the lineups, the Patriots are honestly better at every single position on the field, all the way from quarterback down to punter. The Positions the Bills might have an edge in ( Left Guard with Dockery, the Pats have stud Logan Mankins or WR with Evans ( the Pats have Moss). The only position I think the Bills might be better at is Kick Return man with Terence McGee.
- Randy Moss had 4 touchdowns in the first half... amazing
- Many team on a week to week basis " could" play better but they don't. The Pats have been playing like their fans would want them to every week. It is harder than it sounds.
SD/Jax ( weeks ago)
- It was a fun game to watch between two playoff teams.
- I still maintain that Phillip Rivers is overrated, remember he made the playoffs last year instead of Tom Brady. Rivers was commanding a super talented Chargers team that last year had the best O-Line in football, the best running back, the best tight end, and maybe the best defense. I saw Rivers as more of a game manager and I wasn't sold on him.
- There was a big hit in this game by Jags rookie safety Reggie Nelson. Reggie crushed the Chargers receiver in a violent hit where he looked to have led with his helmet. After the play Reggie started celebrating with the Florida Gators chomp and the Refs threw the 15 yard unnecessary roughness flag. Replays showed that Nelson led with his shoulder, and the announcers said it was an incorrect call.... It was a bad call but that play happened so fast and it is such a bang bang decision. When I saw the hit live I agreed with the refs that it looked like an illegal helmet to helmet hit, but slow motion replays showed the Reggie led with his shoulder.
I have come around to say that MOST refs are actually pretty good ( except for a few select games ( Pittsburgh/Seattle SB)). There are usually a few bad calls a game, but over the hundreds of possible calls a few bad ones are expected. I think the NFL refs actually do a damn good job. I also think that if Reggie didn't start celebrating after that hit, that they probably wouldn't have flagged him.
Week 2 3-4-1 ATS, 0-1 ML, -6 units
Week 3 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 ML, +3 units
Week 4 3-2-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +7 units
Week 5 2-0-1 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 6 4-0-2 ATS, 0-0 ML + 7 units
Week 7 1-2-0 ATS. 0-0 ML -1 unit
Week 8 3-0-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 9 units
Week 9 3-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML +2 units
Week 10 5-2-0 ATS, 0-1 ML +4 units
Week 11 4-3-0 ATS, 0-0 ML + 3 units
Week 12 3-8-0 ATS, 0-0 ML -8 units
Season = +17.25 units
Pending Futures:
Eagles to win SB 42, 12.5 units to win 450 Units ( 35/1 odds)
Patriots to win SB 42, 2.5 units to win 32.5 Units ( 12/1 odds)
Patriots to win SB 42, 11 units to win to win 110 Units ( 10/1 odds)
http://pfootball.blogspot.com/2007_02_01_archive.html
Week 12 Recap
Green Bay -3.5 @ Detroit ( 1 unit) WIN
Jets @ Dallas -13 ( 1 unit) WIN
Indy @ Atlanta +13 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Minny @ New York Giants -7 ( 2 units) LOSS
Deadskins +3 @ Bucs ( 2 units) LOSS
49ers @ Arizona -10 ( 2 units, bought half point) LOSS
ADD: Tennesse -1.5 2nd half ( 1 unit) -105 LOSS
ADD: Houston Pick'em 2nd half ( 1 unit) +105 LOSS
ADD: New York Giants -7.5 2nd half ( 1 unit) LOSS
ADD: Deadskins -.5 2nd half ( 1 unit) WIN
ADD New England Patriots -24 for (1 unit) LOSS
Total = 3-8 ATS for -8 units
Week 12 was my worst week as far as winning percentage and Units lost. The bright side is that I was playing with house money while the downside is that I wiped away about 1/3 of this seasons gains. The important thing to remember is that if you have been doing this long enough, you are going to have bad weeks from time to time. I was only losing in increments of 1 and 2 units which cushioned my off week. Money management should always be something in the back of your mind and even though I lost this battle, I am still winning the war. This week I also added my two huge NFL futures plays to my picks which illustrate the huge opportunity to make money off the Pats.
Recaps
Skins/Bucs
- Is a direct snap to Clinton Portis always a run left?
- Jason Campbell with the fumble, it seems like he is good for at least 1 per game. He seems to be mechanical in his delivery and it reminds me of Byron Leftwhich although he isn't nearly as slow as Byron ( but I get that same feel). Check out the snap or quick delivery of say a Tony Romo or even Jeff Garcia in this game, and then look at the mechanical delivery of Campbell.
- Joe Gibbs wastes a challenge on a wish.
- There was a key 4th and 1 play at the Bucs Goal line where in the huddle I noticed Jason Campbell tapped Clinton Portis on the helmet. The significance of that was that Portis was the one who got the ball on 4th and 1, and he was stuffed. Did Campbell tip the play off so that the Bucs could easily tee off on Portis?
- Washington had a lot of turnovers. How come when Eli Manning throws 4 picks and the Giants lose, people question his worth, but Jason Campbell had 3 turnovers this game ( including 2 key 4th quarter interceptions) and he gets a pass? Eli could have 4 turnovers and people talk about how he lost the game, but Campbell have 3 turnovers and people talk about how "well" he played? Media Bias right there.
- Jason Campbell has failed to lead his team down the field for the game winning score in each of their last 3 games, and he even failed 6 times ( because of 2 chances in each game). How come people don't call him a choke artist?
Giants/Vikings
- On the second play of the game, the Giants had 8 in the box and the Vikings ran a play action pass. Tavaras Jackson ran a terrible play fake, but the Vikings had Sidney Rice 1 on 1 with Aaron Ross on the outside and got a 60 yard touchdown. I'd also like to point out that the sun was real bright on that side of the field, and Ross possibly lost the ball.
- Tavaras Jackson fumbles on a 3rd down sack by Osi but the ball fell forward and the Vikings got a 1st down. How often does a sack/fumble result in a 1st down?
- Sinorice Moss drops a pass on 3rd and 5 and the Giants for for it on 4th down and don't get it. Amani Toomer ran the jet route instead of running the drag ( did he run the wrong route?) The Giants looked out of sync and it's not all Eli's fault.
- The Giants ran a lot of 8 man fronts on defense, but the Vikings kept running. Childress probably didn't want Jackson throwing the ball too often even if running the ball meant unfavorable 8 man fronts.
- OK, Eli Manning got a lot of criticism for this game, but it was NOT all his fault. The Vikings brought a lot of pressure in this game and the Giants were missing their 1st and 2nd string runners ( and Droughns was ineffective), and Burress was gimpy.
- The Main problems I saw were Pressure, and not being on the same page.
- In this game I saw 6 dropped balls by the Giants which is a little high ( I'd expect in a normal game a team drops maybe 4 or 5 balls). There was one other pass Droughnes might have been able to catch, but it was more of a quick throw due to the pressure right in Eli's face. I also saw 5 passes that Eli threw away due to avoiding a sack ( he was only sacked once). The media also presented the stats that there were 15 hits/hurries. David Diehl also didn't help with 3 penalties.
So Let's recap...
5 Drops
5 throw aways, 1 that was sort of both
plus 15 hits/hurries
ONLY 1 sack
Eli was hurried all day. He had 15 hits/hurries, which led to the 5 throw aways. This is where I have a problem with QB rating. If Eli throws the ball away to avoid a sack, but say Kurt Warner holds onto the ball all 5 times he loses yardage but also doesn't have 0/5 completions added to his QB rating. Not only that but a lot of the drops Eli had were deeper balls and on key downs. The Giants had no threat of a running game with Reuben, and the Vikings teed off on Eli all game. Those problems were NOT all his fault.
He ended up throwing 4 interceptions. Three were his fault, and one ball was tipped at the line at about a 45 degree angle right to a Vikings defender.
I don't understand how Eli could have 4 turnover and be Ryan Leaf, while Jason Campbell could have 3 turnovers and be " a promising young player" after the game. Tony Romo had the 5 pick day in Buffalo, Peyton had his 5 pick game in San Diego, but when Eli throws 4 picks he is the worst player ever.
I can promise you that Eli was playing under tough circumstances. 15 hits/hurries is no joke, and for him to only get sacked once shows that he made a lot of snap quick decisions. Not only that be Reuben Droughns disappeared after the first drive and Eli was stuck in a lot of long yardage situations.
If you can't tell, it pisses me off when people write off Eli, but then hype up a Jason Campbell and his dink and dunk offense and late game turnovers.
Pats/Eagles
- I am surprised with the 3 touchdowns and big stats by AJ Feeley ( even with the 3 picks). It wasn't all dink and dunk yards either. I know people will talk about a controversy in Philly, but Feeley is the backup. I'd say that Feeley is a quality backup, but not starting material for the longer term. He is like that 5th starting pitcher in baseball, he isn't your ace, but he can make some quality starts from time to time. He is too good to be discarded, but some team without a quarterback ( like Miami) shouldn't trade for him ( again).
- What is with the Keith Olberman "worst person in the NFL?" I vote for Keith Olberman as the worst person in the NFL. How tough is it to sit there and second guess everybody and then pick in the Broncos punter? Olberman second guessing everybody fits into that NBC studio well with the king of the charlatans, Chris Collinsworth.
- Tom Brady reminds me of Alex Rodriguez in his work ethic. After A-Rod signed his 252 million dollar contract with the Rangers, some of his friends wanted to party and celebrate but he said that he needed to work even harder now so that he could live up to that contract ( where as most athletes would get fat and happy). Tom Brady has everything going for him but he is still a perfectionist. At this point in time his fans "expect" nothing other than the best. In the Pats/Skins game earlier in the year Brady was yelling at his teammates after a failed series in a game they were winning in blowout fashion. This guy wants to win.
I also remember last year people ( Dan Patrick in particular) were saying the Patriots were "done" etc. or that they were good but not "going to win the championship". Brady said that he was sick and tired of his team being disrespected. Dan Patrick fired back on his show that nobody is disrespecting the Pats, but that they " aren't championship material anymore". That is Exactly disrespecting to Tom Brady. He wants to win every game, score on every play, and dominate his opponent. There is no such thing as second place. He studies, he fights, he rallies and hates to lose. When somebody calls them " just" a playoff team of course he feels disrespected...
Tom Brady is a winner and somebody you want manageing your team.
- The Pats were heavy favorites in this game and with each tick of the clock it gave the Eagles more confidence, and put more pressure on the Patriots. I am impressed again with how cool under pressure Brady was in such a tight game with such high expectations. Those fans would have been stunned/pissed if the Pats lost, and a poised Brady made sure that didn't happen.
Pats/Bills ( 2 weeks ago)
- Losman was picked off early on a ball he never should have thrown ( no surprise). The WR ran a fake and then quit on the route and Randal Gay kept with the play.
- L. Mahroney had his 1st TD of the year which is a surprise considering he is the starting running back for this prolific Pats offense. I do like Lawrence, as he reminds me of a poor mans Steven Jackson with his size, speed, and shiftiness.
- The timing on the Pats safety blitzes just amazes me, they are also showing lots of different looks in their back 7.
- Donte Stallworth had a bad drop. Now with the Pats a drop doesn't matter because then Brady will put the ball where it needs to be on the very next play, but if Stallworth played for the Falcons everybody would talk about how Mike Vick has no receivers and they drop all the balls. If you play for the Pats and drop one, you are fine because you will catch the other dozen or so accurately thrown your way, but when you play for Mike Vick and drop the only good ball thrown at you that is a problem. Not only that, but getting lots of balls thrown your way gets you into a rhythm, while having one bone thrown your way a game makes it harder to focus. Bad quarterbacks always have the excuse of poor receivers, when in fact they are a big part of the equation ( I know this is obvious but it is very important).
- Randy Moss drops a perfect pass and then catches a touchdown on the very next play... in stride with the previous comment.
- Amazing stree ball play where Losman fumbles and then picks the ball up for a 14 yard gain. Fans love those cool 14 yard quarterback rushes, but can this guy make the routine plays? A 14 yard run that Tom Brady couldn't even make might seem like a "bonus", but not being able to make all those throws makes it not even worth it. It's something so obvious but fans just go nuts when they see a mobile quarterback.
- This game looked like a JV team vs the Varsity team. If you look at the lineups, the Patriots are honestly better at every single position on the field, all the way from quarterback down to punter. The Positions the Bills might have an edge in ( Left Guard with Dockery, the Pats have stud Logan Mankins or WR with Evans ( the Pats have Moss). The only position I think the Bills might be better at is Kick Return man with Terence McGee.
- Randy Moss had 4 touchdowns in the first half... amazing
- Many team on a week to week basis " could" play better but they don't. The Pats have been playing like their fans would want them to every week. It is harder than it sounds.
SD/Jax ( weeks ago)
- It was a fun game to watch between two playoff teams.
- I still maintain that Phillip Rivers is overrated, remember he made the playoffs last year instead of Tom Brady. Rivers was commanding a super talented Chargers team that last year had the best O-Line in football, the best running back, the best tight end, and maybe the best defense. I saw Rivers as more of a game manager and I wasn't sold on him.
- There was a big hit in this game by Jags rookie safety Reggie Nelson. Reggie crushed the Chargers receiver in a violent hit where he looked to have led with his helmet. After the play Reggie started celebrating with the Florida Gators chomp and the Refs threw the 15 yard unnecessary roughness flag. Replays showed that Nelson led with his shoulder, and the announcers said it was an incorrect call.... It was a bad call but that play happened so fast and it is such a bang bang decision. When I saw the hit live I agreed with the refs that it looked like an illegal helmet to helmet hit, but slow motion replays showed the Reggie led with his shoulder.
I have come around to say that MOST refs are actually pretty good ( except for a few select games ( Pittsburgh/Seattle SB)). There are usually a few bad calls a game, but over the hundreds of possible calls a few bad ones are expected. I think the NFL refs actually do a damn good job. I also think that if Reggie didn't start celebrating after that hit, that they probably wouldn't have flagged him.
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