Sunday, September 28, 2008

Week 4

Week 4
Cincy/Cleveland Over 44 ( bought .5) 3 units
KC + 9.5 ( sucker bet) 2 unit
Vikings/Titans Under 36
Titans -3
Arizona + 1.5
Green Bay + 1.5
Dallas 2nd half

I don't like this week's games as much, but the first game that jumped out at me was the Cincy/Cleveland over 44. I was on the Bengals over last week, and I noted that their offense was severely undervalued. KC is a classic overvalued/undervalued sucker bet. I would ideally like the Redskins/Cowboys game to be close at halftime, as I will play Dallas who is much better ( and a 2nd half team). I don't like laying 11.5 points, so hopefully it will be close at halftime and I can get in for a lower number. I do like Dallas to win so why not try and get a cheaper number?

Cincy/Cle O 44
- 2 offensive teams with weak defenses ( should naturally make you think over).
- Defenses give up more than 44 ppg on average ( last year they gave up over 48 ppg combined) and the number is only 44.
- Cle gives up 145 and 4.1 per game rushing thus far
- Cincy gives up 174.3 and 4.7 per game rushing thus far
( that means both teams should be able to move the ball)

Neither offense has done anything thus far, but look at who they played.
@ Baltimore = good defense and a road game, could be a top 5 D again
Pitt = One of the best defenses in the league, top 3
Dallas = A top 10 defense from last year
@ NYG = road game against the champs pressure defense, top 10.
Tenn = Titans are probably top 5, and there were 50 mph winds to kill passing
@ Bal = road game against what could be a top 5 defense again

The thing that really undervalued cincy was the game against the titans where it was so windy the goal posts were shaking. That completely changes the game. It kills passing ( cincy), and favors defense and running ( not the Bungles who get gashed on the ground), but the titans who have thunder and lighting at rb, and a solid D. Cincy didn't put up points but that should come as no surprise.

This is the best play on the entire card. Cincy's offense already started to come alive last week against the Giants, and the Browns should put up points on the Bungles. I really like their offensive coordinator and how he takes calculated risks ( too many teams are way to conservative).

Last year these two teams played in a shoot out with a 51 to 45 score and 96 total points. 44 is not THAT high of a total, and I believe both coaches are ok with attacking each other and trying to outscore the other team as opposed to trying to max out TOP and be efficient.

If you anything else look at the injuries in the Bengals secondary. Two safeties are hurt and Johnathan Joseph is hurt as well. If I am the Browns I am attacking with Braylon Edwards and Winslow.

The Bengals had a rough time last week with the Giants ( I believe Palmer was sacked 7 times), but the Browns and their 3-4 defense won't be able to put that kind of pressure on Palmer without blitzing. The Browns couldn't put any pressure on Romo in week 1 and the Bengals are in for an easier week this week. Palmer is still one of the best QB's in the league and people are sleeping on them.

Chiefs + 9.5
I haven't booked this one yet as I am hoping to get + 10 right before kick off. If you like the Cheifs, wait as long as you can until kickoff because the public is eating Denver at over a 70 percent clip.

Denver = overvalued, people will pay extra to bet Denver
KC = undervalued, people are avoiding them at all costs
Overvalued + undervalued = a good recipe to win money

Denver has the #1 offense in the league and is 3-0. If that isn’t tempting enough for Joe Public, then I don’t know what is. I am actually 2-0 betting on Broncos games. I took the Bronocs in their week 1 romping of the Raiders on MNF, and I took the Chargers +1.5 on the road in Denver for the ½ point win. The public loves offense, and they love winners. The Broncos should NOT have beat SD with two gift calls from the ref ( 1 early on, and a late Cutler fumble that would have ended the game). I am impressed with a young Jay Cutler, I love shanny, but I don't like them to cover this week.

KC has looked like the worst team in the league with 3rd stringer Tyler Thigpen, but now they are getting Damon Huard back. The public hates KC and many people see them as the worst team in the league. I’ve always felt that if you are going to run a boring, low risk, conservative offense, why not just have a Vet game manager? That is exactly what the ultra conservative Herm is doing this week, he wants Huard to start because he is less prone to turnovers than Thigpen.

Denver does have a good offense ( actually #1 right now), the thing that Joe Public is overlooking is that the Broncos have given up an average of 425 yards on defense and 8.9 per pass ( terrible).

Herman Edwards formula in games where he is an underdog is to run the ball, stay conservative, keep it close and try and win the game at the end. That is a PERFECT formula for a 9.5 point home underdog to cover a point spread.

Double Digit home dogs are just one of this historical plays that don’t look good, but will win at 60% or better.

KC with Thigpen is probably the worst team in the league but they are NOT with Damon Huard, and they are NOT playing this rivalry game at Arrowhead. Forget about the Chiefs getting crapped on because 3rd string thigpen's chiefs are very different than with Huard. You are getting extra points on this one. The Chiefs nearly beat NE on the road in week 1 ( but failed at the Goal line and lost by 7, and now the Chiefs find themselves nearly double digit dogs at home vs an overvalued Denver team.

Vikings/ Titans
- Almost 10 years ago we would see this QB match up in the NFC East, Kerry Collins and the NYG vs Gus and the Redskins. Both old backups take over for their injured/ineffective mobile quarterbacks. Both teams are built around their strong run games and stopping the run. Everybody knows the Vikings were #1 in rushing, last in passing, and #1 in rush D last year. The Titans have a very strong defense and they are also built on rushing ( now with Chris Johnson and Len Whale White).

Lots of rushing = a running clock, and lot of rushing + run defense = lots of punting. 37 is a much better number than 36 ( for example a 20 to 17 game). I do like the game to stay low scoring and I do like the Titans ( but I don't like betting favs in low scoring games like this). Not sure how it plays out, but something to think about.

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