Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Week 2

Week 2:

Jets -1 ( bought .5 point)@ Cheater Patriots 2 units
Green Bay -3 @ Detroit ( 2 units )
Colts -2 @ Viqueens ( 2 units )
Saints -1 @ Deadskins ( 2 units )
NY Giants @ STL Lambs OVER 41 ( bought .5 point)

Last week I finished 3-3 but lost money due to varying units. In the Seattle and Miami games, my worst fears came true ( Bills ST, Favre Fluke play). I still feel like Miami was the right call, but you can't win them all. The smart play isn't always the winning play. The Colts crapped the bed, and I can't stand Tony Dungy as a coach, but whatever, they will bounce back this week. I also know that I had multiple leans that I didn't play that won ( Dal, GB, GB 2nd half over).

I jumped on these early because the lines could move against me, and I like these enough to play there. Here are the short write ups.

Jets -1
The Reason you buy the .5, is because 1 is a key number and 1.5 is not. 1 point is basically just to win. Everybody loves to buy to 3 or 7, but people overlook 1, 4, and 6. Last year before the year I bet on the Pats to win it all, and I was saying that Brady is better than you think ( he put up the stats to back it up last year). It wasn't that people didn't think he was good, but he means so much to his team. Last year Joe Gibbs wouldn't even let Jason Campbell call audibles, but Manning and Brady could call their own damn plays. If you sit back in coverage, they will beat you, and if you blitz them, they will find hot routes and beat you. I don't believe the Pats have some awsome offensive line, but Brady's intelligence MADE them look better because he was quick to get rid of the ball so they weren't getting beat. That also opens up the run game etc. and there is a snowball effect... No Brady = No snowball effect. Not only will his loss hurt the offense, but the defense could be on the field longer etc. I haven't liked what I have seen from Matt Cassell, and I believe the Jets win this one. If the Pats can barely squeak out a win at home vs the Croyle/Huard and the Chiefs, the Jets at home should win.

Favre wasn't super impressive last week ( lucky TD toss), but the team overall looks better and his arm opens up the entire field. The Jets did throw some passes down field, instead of the short stuff and check downs they would have been throwing with Clemens or Penny. I actually like the threat of Favre to help open up things for Thomas Jones too and help the D.

Green Bay -3
In General it isn't a good thing to play a team that won a nationally televised game, but the line is only 3. Detroit's defense is still terrible. They stunk last year and they lost their big guy in the middle in Shaun Rodgers ( how bad are they now)? Well, they gave up a record 220 yards ( 10 per carry) to Michael Turner, and they gave up almost 100 to his backup. That is terrible! Especially with a rookie QB in his first start who isn't exactly a gigantic passing threat. Their defense isn't there, their coach stinks, and Kitna is average?

Green Bay on the other hand has a defense. The thing that stuck out to me in the Minnesota game was that they hit hard. Maybe they can cause some fumbles this week. GB was a solid team last year, and all Rodgers has to do is manage the game against a weak Lions D, and they should cruise on to victory. I thought Rodgers didn't look like a typical rookie or first year quarterback. I'm not calling him the new Favre or anything, but at least he wasn't bad. The thing about this play though, goes back to defenses. Green Bay has one, Detroit doesn't. Last year the Packers put up 37 and 34 points on the Lions. A 3 point spread isn't exactly calling for a blowout. Basically, if the you think the 13-3 Packers beat a Lions team with one of the worst defenses in the league, play the Pack -3.

Colts -2
I can't believe the Colts lost the first game ever in Lucas Oil Stadium. Usually teams are fired up and defend their ground in a new stadium. You can talk about Manning etc., but I feel that the Bears D played good. I also like how Lovie Smith would have Urlacher/Briggs in the A gaps, either firing in and blitzing, or pulling back. It really put a lot of pressure on the Colts backup center, and they tricked him and got at least 1 easy sack. I like Lovie Smith as a coach, mixing it up, preaching turnovers ( and getting them). The Bears were lined up against the Colt's O-line to confuse them. The Bears don't normally do that, but Lovie made the adjustment for THIS game. Tony Dungy is horrible at adjusting, the guy is a super conservative coach who wants to just stick to his game plan and not try anything "too crazy". This is why he couldn't win the big one in Tampa, and this is why Manning had to carry him to a title 2 years ago. In the playoffs somebody else will "beat you" if you keep challenging them to do so.

The Colts played his boring cover 2 like usual. The only variation he had is when Bob Sanders would creep down and have some run support. Here the Colts are playing a weak QB, and a rookie RB in his first ever NFL game, and Dungy plays his boring old cover 2 and gets crapped on for 29 points. People were talking about the Bears having a historically bad offense, and Dungy blew it. Dungy also wasted 2 timeouts with "hope" challenges that were obviously not going to get reversed.

The Vikings have the awsome RB that could run wild on the Colts D, but Tavaras Jackson is terrible. The guy had 6 yards passing near the end of the first half? The Packers were daring him to throw the ball downfield, and he failed to execute. He would throw a deep ball 15 yards too short, or get sacked, or just not understand what the hell is going on.

I think the Colts win this one. I was very dissapointed after the first game, but Manning will be back. The Vikings have a weak pass D ( although better with Jared Allen), but I thought the Colts would be 7-0 or 6-1 by the time they meet the Patriots later in the year ( I was wrong). The Colts are banged up and do have injuries to their O-Line ( and Addai who is questionable after taking a nasty hit), but I think they find a way to win. If Addai will play, this spread could easily creep up from -2 to -3.

Saints -1
The Saints put up 24 points last week against the Bucs. Tampa has a better D than Washington, and I'd expect the Saints to put up more than 20 points at Washington. I understand this game will be on the road and on Grass, but Naw Awlans has the chess pieces on offense to put up points. I'd like if Deuce could get in there and do something, but Pierre is decent himself. Ragina Bush probably wouldn't be much of a rushing threat vs this Skins D ( they are pretty good), but he could be helpfull catching passes.

If you believe in the Redskins at all, this is the time to bet on them. They are at a point of max pessimism. Their offense didn't do anything in the preseason and anything at all in the regular season. I was anti- Jason Campbell for a while, and now even his biggest fans are starting to come around and say things that I have been saying ( holds onto the ball forever, long release, not reading the defense, too many check downs etc.).

The good thing for the Redskins is that I don't really believe in the Saints defense as well. If the Redskins could muster any offense at all, they could win this game. I'd just rather have Drew Brees against a good defense, than Jason Campbell still learning and against a bad defense. The Saints defensive ends actually aren't that bad with Smith and Grant to pressure Campbell. I see the Saints going over 20 points, but I am not sure about the Skins. I also think more times than not, the Saints win this game. Sure, if you played this game 100 times, a certain percentage of time the Saints would crap the bed, but more times than not they win this game.

Giants/Lambs over 41
I bought the half point because 41 is actually pretty key. Example, 21-20 game. Marc Bulger and the Rams have looked bad in the preseason and horrible in week 1. If you are ever going to play a team, you do that at point of max pessimism. The Rams were terrible last week, and probably can't be THAT bad. They almost looked like they weren't trying. On the other side of the ball, the Rams are very vulnerable to throw the ball against. An underrated or underachieving offense and a weak pass defense are both are good for overs.

The Giants on the other hand only scored 16 points, but had to settle for field goals in the red zone 3 out of 4 times. They moved the ball against Washington ( a better defense) and could move the ball at least as well, plus converting more TDs instead of FGs.

I actually thought this would open 44 or higher and I'd still like it as I'd expect about 47 points, but 41 is a good solid play. Maybe this game gets pushed up a few points before sunday, that's why I played it today.

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