Saturday, September 06, 2008

Sucker Bet, Week 1

Week 1 sucker bet
Miami +3 ( buy close to kickoff, you might get 3.5)
Public on Jets 72.44 %

- People love to talk about home field advantage of a cold weather team in December, but what about Miami in early September? Teams from up north get hot and tired in these games. I remember cashing in on Miami 2-3 years ago when I believe a favored Denver team came into town and cashing in.

- 38 year old Favre is NOT is game shape and doesn’t know the playbook very well. In general, that should be fade, but Pennington is also new to his system. If you had to contrast Pennington to Favre though, you would notice that you have one very risk averse guy who will throw passes into tight coverage, and on the other side you have a noodle armed guy who will take what the defense gives him, and dink and dunk you all day. If both guys are newbies, I want the guy with safe throws.

- Miami had a bad defense last year, but they weren’t bad against the pass. In fact they only gave up 188 yards through the air, good for 4th best in the league.

- Miami was 1-15 last year, but they were really more like a 4-12 team.

- Ronnie Brown was a league leading back before he got hurt and was averaging 5.1 per carry, while Chatman averaged 4.0 and Parcells has been happy with what he saw out of Rickey Dopehead.

- The fins drafted the best Tackle prospect in the draft, so I expect their run game to be better than the 98 yards per game they were last year with the better TB, backup TB, and stud LT prospect.

- I also expect much better QB play out of Miami this year with Penny over “Miss Cleo” Lemon. Pennington might not be ready for his new team either, but he is very risk averse. Pennington had a 68.8 completion percentage last year, and that was on a 4-12 team. He is also very familiar with the Jets and their defensive personnel.

- I’d expect the Dolphins to play a very conservative game, with Pennington and his nearly 70% comp pct, grind it out on the ground with 2 quality backs, let that Miami sun wear on the Jets until they make those inevitable mistakes.

Everybody wants to play Favre, but they are expecting too much early. There is no possible way the guy could be there 3-4 weeks and understand the terminology and offense. He is a gun slinger and prone to real good plays and real bad plays and will be throwing against last years 4th best secondary.

The Jets also have injuries. Favres top receiver is hurt ( but will probably play), One of his lineman ( Woody) is 50/50, and Shaun Ellis, and 2 corners ( Justin Miller and David Barret) are all game time decisions. Miami is actually injury free. Joey Porter is a little banged up but will play for sure.

I like Home Dogs, I like fading the public, and I like taking an underrated team against an overrated team. People are calling the Jets a lock, but I see far from it. Vegas isn’t stupid, and they are letting the public pile on the Jets at nearly a 75% clip.

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