Thursday, September 18, 2008

Week 3

Week 2 Recap
Jets -1 = LOST 2 units
Green Bay -3 WON 2 units
Colts -2 WON 2 units
Saints -1 LOST 2 units
NY Giants @ STL Lambs OVER 41 WON 2 units
SD +1.5 WON 1 unit
Plays = 4-2 +3 units
Leans (3-0)
Titans +1 Won
Giants -9 Won
Eagles + 7 Won

I also had a 6 game parlay that did NOT include the Saints/Skins that I submitted that paid 48-1. A few lines moved and I did NOT resubmit it but the 6 team parlay won. I could go jump off a bridge it makes me so mad. I really liked last weeks games, but I didn't go in too much. I do NOT like week 3 as much as there is just so much damn chalk and average teams playing each other.

Evens the games I lost last week Redskins/Pats I said that " if you are ever going to bet these teams, do it now when public perception is so low on them".

Week 3
Cincy/NY Giants O41 ( 5 units)
Dallas -3 @ GB ( 3 units)

Bungles @ Giants O41
Before I even looked at this weeks games, I knew I wanted this one. I figured the spread would be about 44-45 when in reality it should be about 47 or 48. I think I like the Giants overs on the road better ( being on the road doesn't really hamper their offense), but I like this one very much. The biggest fear would be that the Giants build a good 2 TD lead, and then just rip off 5-6 yard run after run, bleed the bungles defense, and then not convert in the Red zone and kick field goals.

One of the reasons I like this game is that the Bengals offense is very undervalued. If I am a fantasy football player, I am trying to offer trades for Palmer, Chad, and Hoosh at these depressed values. I am a super hard QB critic but Palmer is still one of the best. The Bengals have their share of problems, but offense is NOT the biggest worry. Marvin Lewis is by far the biggest problem in Cincy and he better be counting his days of being paid as an NFL head coach.

Everybody loved coach affirmative action once he got hired, but the guy has done nothing in years, and has lost his team. Ocho Stinko loved Marvin when he was hired, but this off season didn't want to play in Cincy anymore. Chris Henry got kicked off the team, but they resigned him and begged him to come back ( how does that undermine the coaches message, how desperate does that make the Bengals look?). Rudi Johnson was booted right before the year started and we all know about how many Bengals got arrested and how many times. The worst part of all, is that coach affirmative action is supposed to be a defensive genius, but every Bengals defense he has coached sucked. Marvin Lewis is good for nothing, and does not deserve to wear the headset. He can't coach a winning team, and he can't even keep his guys out of jail.

The Giants offense WILL move the ball. Brandon Jacobs will keep the chains moving ripping off solid runs, and Eli will have the ability to throw play action etc. Will the Giants convert in the Red zone? Will these drives be too long and time consuming? These are the major questions. The Giants played a similar defense last week, and covered the O/U pretty much themselves with 41 points. I'd expect the G-men to put up north of 28 points, and probably over 30.

Cincy on the other hand has had trouble on O. Carson Palmer is NOT an average QB. Ocho and Hoosh are good, and they have played together awhile. The Ravens shut them down in week 1, and the Bengals learned the hard way that they aren't great at running the ball, so they will pass more which favors more points and clock stopping.

I naturally wanted to play a Bengals Over after last week and the number looks more than fair. Not only was Cincy playing one of the best defenses in the league ( Titans) last week, but there were about 35-40 mph winds that were blowing the goal posts. It had to be the worst Sept. weather for a passing oriented team, and it strongly favored the run game ( Titans). Last weeks winds artificially held the Bengals offense down. The Bengals are NOT a 7 point per week offense. If they played the Rams in the dome last week, they could have put up 30. The Bengals averaged 24 ppg last year and their offense will correct their problems while old Marvin and his stinky defense will get gashed by the Giants. Look for them to put up 20+ points and the Giants 28+. If the Bengals offense really steps up and gets into a shoot out, this over could be over in the 3rd Q.

Dallas -3
I picked Dallas and the Colts in the super bowl. It would be hard to argue that Dallas isn't the very best team in the NFL right now, while NE, Indy, and SD all have their problems. Dallas is about a 13-3 team to me and is clearly better than the Packers.

Today the talking heads on TV were talking about how the Packers made the right move with Favre, and how " I knew Rodgers would be good all along", and how he is headed for the hall of fame... what? After 2 games and one of them against the Lions?

Dallas is a power house and they are the better team IMO. They cowboys could have won by even more if it weren't for the fumble/td and the pick. Aaron Rodgers hasn't been tested as much.

If Dallas is a 13-3 team, they have tough games @ Philly, @ NYG, @ Pitt and maybe they just crap the bed against a decent team or too for 3 losses. Last year Romo went into Buffalo and threw 5 picks on national TV. I do think they crap the bed sometime this year, and that will be a landmine to all Dallas betters, but I do NOT think this is the game.I think Dallas claims NFC superiority this week on National TV and a 3 point spread isn't much. This opinion obviously isn't super popular yet, because the talking heads on TV are still sucking off Aaron Rodgers and hyping him up. Let's see how he does in this very big game.

I will admit he didn't look like a rookie or first year guy out there... but let's see you do it again.

TB +3 ( a live dog, mirror image team of Chicago but better)
Wash ( I was ok with them -3, but I don't like that hook)
SD should win, I just want to figure out if they win by 10 or not ( I hate that big chalk)I do think the bookies will love week 3 though. These big chalkie spreads. If you bet every dog you would probably come out slightly on top, but it is hard to predict exactly how this week shakes out. Week 2 was much easier.

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